global warming (iv): future impactswu/big101-wyq/main_files/l9_warmingimpa… · global warming...

Global Warming (IV): Future

Impacts•How damaging?•How beneficial?•Who should pay for action?

Readings: 1) Muller, Energy for Future Presidents, Chap. 3 (read with a critical mind)2) IPCC AR5 report: summary for policy makers (www.ipcc.ch)

Tuesday, 26 November, 13

http://www.ipcc.ch

http://www.ipcc.ch

Isotopic dating: ice age swings

CO2

Antarctic ice cores

radiocarbon dating

Uranium series& Argon dating

half-life 5730 yrsalso counting layers


3) “It’s the Developing countries (China, India...). Give us a break.”

Yes, global warming is anthropogenic. But...

1)”It will hurt the economy. Also too expensive to fight.”

2) “It may actually be beneficial.”

Sep 30, 2013, Guardian

UN climate talk (Warsaw) Nov. 23, 2013, NY Times

a thorny dispute over a proposal by developing nations for the creation of a “loss and damage mechanism” under the treaty. [US, EU] and other developed nations opposed the measure, fearing new financial claims.

How damaging? How beneficial? Who should pay?

“countries have accepted the reality” of the effects of climate change, but that “they seem unwilling to take concrete actions to reduce the severity of these impacts.”


Different Scenarios for CO2 emission(Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios -- RCP)

2013, 30 Gton/yr

2063, ? Gton/yr

30 Gton of CO2 /year ~ 10 Gton of Carbon/yearTuesday, 26 November, 13

First projection: Energy use is accelerated by population growth.

2013: 7 billion

projected2063: 10 billion

Habor-Bosch process: nitrogenfertilizer


30 * (10/7)= 45

First projection

2013, 30 Gton/yr

2063


Muller ’12

Second Projection: Energy Use is accelerated by wealth

In $2012, China GDP ~ $6000; US $50,000 (Canada $52,000).

Assume by 2063, developing worlds have GDP per capita 2x today-- still only 1/4 of US

energy consumption should rise by a factor of 2


45x 2 = 90

Second projection

30 * (10/7) = 45

2013, 30 Gton/yr


45 x 2 = 90

Third projection

30 * (10/7) = 45

If energy consumption in US/Canada/Australia drop by a factor of 2, ~ European level

90- 8/2 = 86

Hence the claim: ‘Developing world is the issue’.

‘Business as usual’

‘Intelligent’carbon neutral


RCP 4.5

Aggressive ‘stabilization wedges’ needed to bring down the emission -- wedges most needed in the developing world.


Developed Countries:

. should they be held responsible for current climate change?

. Should they reduce their future emission?


CBC News Nov. 16, 2013

“Canada is one of the countries that has benefited from fossil fuel growth and has a responsibility to give leadership.

[Robinson] has a blunt and rather inconvenient message for global leaders and fossil fuel-producing countries like Canada: If you’re serious about preventing the worst of climate change, you have to leave that bitumen, oil and gas in the ground.

Oh, Canada!


Oil in Alberta -- another geological accident

. Alberta leads Canada in per capita GDP.


Can developed world reduce their energy use?

energy policy: suppliers win

energy policy: consumers win

US average 340 (2001),Canadian average 450 (2001)

.This is possible even without introducing new technology.

.Higher energy efficiency enforced by energy policy.


1) Every CO2 doubling raises T by 1.5 - 4oC (IPCC ’13)2) Global warming has already occurred, already seeing impacts.3) Ocean slowly absorbs (hundreds of yrs timescale); slow return to normal

RCP 8.5

RCP 2.6

how bad could it get?


‘Intelligent’


Climate change:

what is the first image that comes to your mind?


Arctic Greenland

Antarcticafull melting = 70 meters of sea rise

full melting = 7 meters of sea rise


“A death spiral”

•Prediction based on the mean trend: no permanent Arctic ice-cap by 2030.

•Arctic sea ice floats on water, so melting won’t raise seal level much.

•Ecological damage, the ‘Northwest passage’, Lomonosov ridge

The Arctic

In contrast, melting of Antarctic & Greenland land-ice contributes significantly to current/future sea level rise.


Sea level rise: present & future

. sea level already rose by ~ 30 centimeters

. two major causes of global sea level rise: thermal expansion of the oceans (water expands as it warms) and the melting of land-ice

. even if CO2 emission stopped today, ocean temperature is still catching up (deeper layers slower reaction)

RCP 8.5

RCP 2.6


‘Intelligent’


Sea level rise in the past as Earth emerged from the last ice age

. dramatic changes over historic, not geological, periods

. Interglacial period started 15,000 yrs ago

. early civilization, myths, submerged villages...

Myc

enae

an

Stone Age Bronze age/Iron Age

Egyp

tian

Earl

y D

ynas

ty


Europe: Water level now & 20,000 yrs ago


Australasia: water level now & 20,000 yrs ago.human reached Australia during the Paleolithic era (old stong age, ~ 50,000 yrs ago); correlated with an extinction event.. subsequent water rise isolated the aboriginals from rest of the world


.Immediate future -- Asia taking the brunt.

.Ocean currents change course.

.Ocean acidity changing appreciably now. Marine ecology shaken.

.full melting of Antarctica & Greenland ice sheets (rise ~ 100 meters) in ~ 1000 yrs. Most human population affected.

One meter of sea level rise: .area, population & economy affected

.most fertile land lost

half of Bangladesh 3x Canadians


How would the world react to 100 million climate change refugees?


Climate changes

. is on-going, may accelerate

. ocean: sea level rise, acidity, ocean currents, warming

. land: warming, precipitation changes, extreme weather


Perception of Global WarmingHansen et al, PNAS, 2012

James Hansen arrested over protest against the Keystone

XL pipeline, May 2013

June-July-August temperature anomaly distribution (northern hemisphere land)

.over the past 10 years, not only the mean temperature goes up, there are many more extreme hot episodes in summertime; extreme events kill people

.unseen in the past, and most likely a consequence of global warming

extremely cold cold average hot extremely hot


Oh-oh, are we seeing effects of global warming?

Maybe Canada will benefit from global warming?


projected agricultural yield -- Africa taking the brunt

Projected changes in agricultural productivity 2080 due to climate change, incorporating the effects of carbon fertilization

-50% -15% 0 +15% +35% No data

a prediction made in 2008

1 billion population


Canadian Shield: ancient volcanic bedrock, scraped clean of soil by glaciers, granitic; rich in minerals Toronto

cottage country;

group of seven

Rocky Mountain

Canada: Warmer winter, more rain/snow, more heat-waves; higher agricultural yield?


The pine beetle battle -- expect the unexpected

"Nobody would have expected that a simple degree and a half of warming in the interior of B.C. would unleash a beetle outbreak in 18 million hectares (1/3 of BC forest) worth of pine forest,"


Immigration, social justice, economics, ecology, farming, engineering, city planning, education, .....

Need lots of talents!

To mitigate impacts by climate change,

next term: the science of mitigationTuesday, 26 November, 13

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