global trends 2025 - the american chamber of commerce in … · 2018-06-06 · 3 ® 2018 iqvia...
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2017 IQVIA. All rights reserved.
Tomasz Kluszczynski
Global Trends 2025
1® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Higher than region CAGR
On par with region CAGR
Lower than region CAGR
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Global sales (2016-21), Trillions of constant USD
EU5
US
Pharmerging
Japan
CAGR 2016-21
Developed 2-5%
US 2-5%
Japan (-2)-1%
Germany 2-5%
UK* 2-5%
France 1-4%
Italy 2-5%
Spain 2-5%
Canada 2-5%
Pharmerging 6-9%
Pharmerging US$ 5-8%
China 6-9%
Brazil 6-9%
India 9-12%
Russia 6-9%
Turkey 11-14%
Mexico 3-6%G
row
th
The pharmaceutical market grows to $1.4 trillion by 2021,with a CAGR of 3-6%
Notes: *Subject to PPRS rebate; Ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Contains Audited + Unaudited data; Growth
considered on par if the there is overlap between country and region CAGR ranges Source: IQVIA, IMS Market Prognosis September 2017
2
Share of absolute growth by region (Forecast 2017-2022)
Growth in US and Europe is in specialty medicine,while other geographies grow in traditional indications
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018Source: IQVIA Market Prognosis Q3 2017 Note: at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Contains Audited +
Unaudited data; IHII analysis; Turkey included in AFME, Russia in Asia/Aust./NZ
LATAMLC$ 23Bn Growth
North AmericaLC$ 203Bn Growth
EuropeLC$ 36Bn Growth
AFMELC$ 25Bn Growth
Asia/Aust./NZLC$ 86Bn Growth
87%
13%
Specialty Share of Growth 2017-22
Traditional Share of Growth 2017-22
85%
15%
7%
93%
90%
10%
21%
79%
3® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Global biologics sales and trends (Bn of LCUS$, 2011-2017)
Biologics continue to significantly outgrow the overall market,mainly driven by the US
Biologics –
2017 Share of sales
Biologics –
Share of 5 yr growth
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%250
200
150
100
50
0
Gro
wth
Sa
les
(B
nL
CU
S$
)
201620152014201320122011
Global Pharma growth
Small molecule growth
Biologics growth
Biologics Sales
11%7%
6%
17%59%
9%
8%4%
11%
68%
RoWPharmergingJapanEU5US
Source: IQVIA; European Thought Leadership; MIDAS MAT Q4 2017; IQVIA Market
Prognosis March 2017; Share of growth in LC$. Brazil and Mexico non-retail included
4® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Biologic pipeline: non-traditional biologic indications (from Pre-Clin to Reg)
Novel Biologics are now covering indications typically treated by small molecules
10
11
12
12
12
13
17
27
30
32
34
45
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
No. of pipeline candidates
for indication
COPD
Malaria
Stroke
Osteoarthritis
Pain
Osteoporosis
Heart failure
Allergy
Parkinson’s
HIV
Asthma
Alzheimer’s
Common Factors
• Dominated by small molecules and highly generic
• High patient population
• Aim to treat severe subsections of these indications
• High cost per patient cause payer concern
• Mixed experience with pioneer biologics (Xolair in
respiratory, Praluent & Repatha in hyperlipidemia)
• Biologic specific challenges such as patient
targeting & referral, infrastructure and administration
Source: IQVIA; European Thought Leadership; R&D Focus April 2017; Thought Leadership analysis
5
Global Biosimilar sales and trends (Bn of LCUS$, 2011-2016)
Recent Biosimilars upsurge is mostly due to high uptake in the EU5 and the EU as a whole…
Biosimilars –
2016 Share of sales
Biosimilars –
Share of 5 yr growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
0.5
Gro
wth
Sa
les
(B
nL
CU
S$
)
201620152014201320122011
Global Pharma growth
Biologics growth
Biosimilar growth
Biosimilar sales
25%
2%
62%7%
4%
62%
5%
26%
6%1%
RoWPharmergingJapanEU5US
Source: IQVIA; European Thought Leadership; MIDAS MAT Q4 2016; IQVIA Market Prognosis March 2017; Share of growth in LC$. Brazil and Mexico non-retail
included® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
6
Europe Top 10 biologics sales by region (US$ MAT Q3 2017)
… especially as key biologics already lost or are about to lose exclusivity
Half of the top biologics
have lost protection in
Europe, but not all have
biosimilars yet
Biosimilar delay factors:
• Cost
• Complexity in development
• Patent uncertainty
• Regulatory difficulties and
uncertainties
(mainly US)
Biologic sales (Bn)EU Patent
expiry date
Expired
Expired
Expired
2019
Expired
Expired
2021
2026
2022
Expired
Herceptin (Trastuzumab)1.4 0.6
Humira (Adalimumab)2.8 1.2
Lucentis (Ranibizumab)1.1 0.2
Opdivo (Nivolumab)1.0 0.3
Eylea (Aflibercept)1.1 0.4
Lovenox (Enoxaparin sodium)1.2 0.4
1.3
1.2 0.5
Avastin (Bevacizumab)1.3 0.5
Mabthera (Rituximab)
Lantus (Insulin Glargine)0.9 0.4
0.6
Enbrel (Etanercept)
Abasaglar
Rest of EuropeEU5
Benepali, Erelzi
Truxima, Rixathon
Biosimilars
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018 Source: IQVIA; European Thought Leadership; MIDAS Q3 2017
Ontruzant*
Amgevita*, Imraldi*, Cyltezo*
*Approved by EMA but not yet launched
7IQVIA - Biosimilar Market Trends and Country Archetypes
Adoption of Biosimilars is high, though differs significantly by market, by molecule and by TA
Biosimilar Shares of Molecule Treatment Day(MTH Dec 2017; in %)*
Source: IQVIA MIDAS.
EU
5
Hig
h
pe
ne
tra
tio
n
EU
High
uptake
Low
uptake
Country infliximab insulin glargine etanercept rituximab
UK 88.0% 5.3% 66.7% 66.9%
France 40.5% 6.7% 8.2% 18.8%
Germany 48.9% 7.5% 43.8% 43.4%
Italy 60.9% 15.5% 22.5% 14.5%
Spain 45.7% 8.1% 7.8% 10.4%
Finland 100.0% 3.3% - -
Norway 100.0% 3.4% 87.0% 40.0%
Poland 100.0% 26.2% 50.0% -
Denmark 100.0% 6.2% 100.0% -
Czech 50.0% 13.1% 0.0%* 0.0%*
Slovakia 25.0% 37.7% - -
Japan 4.8% 36.4% - -
Canada 3.4% 2.7% 4.8% -
US 2.9% 15.5% - -
Source: IQVIA; European Thought Leadership; MIDAS MTH December 2017; *Uptake represented within 6 months of launch, GPE (VIAL SC RET) FME (AMPOULES S.C.)
excluded from Insulin calculations, FPE (VIAL SC) FPB (VIAL DRY) excluded from etanercept calculations,FNA (PRE-FILL SYRNG) excluded from rituximab calculations
IQVIA - Biosimilar Market Trends and Country Archetypes
Infliximab example shows dependence of Biosimilar uptake on Regulations (compulsory switch in DK) and existence of Tenders (DK and PL)
Infliximab Biosimilar Market Share in Standard Units(MTH; in %)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
M24M20M16M12M8M4M0
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy Portugal
Poland
Czech Republic Finland
DenmarkCroatia
Sweden
UKSpain
Sta
nd
ard
Un
its
(in
%)
Source: IQVIA MIDAS.
• Six months post launch, infliximab accomplished an almost 100% market share in Denmark; Yet, in France, share values remained below
10% in the same period of time
Denmark: Tender and
Compulsory Switch Poland: Tender Market
IQVIA - Biosimilar Market Trends and Country Archetypes
However, etanercept example reveals uptake differentiation independent of national regulations but dependent on TA specificity
Etanercept Biosimilar Market Share in Treatment Days(MTH Oct 2017; in %)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
M11 M12 M13 M14M0 M19 M20M3M2M1 M16 M17M15 M18M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10
Spain
ItalyCzech
FranceNorway
Poland
Ireland
Belgium
Austria
Romania
CroatiaDenmarkUK
SwedenGermany
Tre
atm
en
t D
ays
(in
%)
• Within the first six months post launch, Denmark and Norway have shown the most successful uptake with a +60% market share
• However, in Spain and Ireland market shares have remained low between 0.3-1.4%
Source: IQVIA MIDAS.
Poland: Uptake significantly
slower than Infliximab
10
Innovation & Competitive Dynamics
• Specialty & Targeted Therapies
• Rise of Disruptive Approaches (Cell & Gene)
• Biosimilars 2nd Wave
• Value Added Generics
PharmaCo’s landscape 2018 onwards…
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Evolving Commercial Model
• Commercial Organization of the Future
• Multichannel: Orchestrated Customer
Engagement
• Intense Patient Focus
Digital Opportunities
• Health Apps
• Digitally Enabled Devices
• Digital Biomarkers
The Regulatory Challenge
• Payer & Policy Maker Influence on Budgets
• New HTA initiatives
• Rise of sophisticated MEAs
• Data Protection (GDPR)
11
Innovation & Competitive Dynamics
• Specialty & Targeted Therapies
• Rise of Disruptive Approaches (Cell & Gene)
• Biosimilars 2nd Wave
• Value Added Generics
PharmaCo’s landscape 2018 onwards…
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Evolving Commercial Model
• Commercial Organization of the Future
• Multichannel: Orchestrated Customer
Engagement
• Intense Patient Focus
Digital Opportunities
• Health Apps
• Digitally Enabled Devices
• Digital Biomarkers
The Regulatory Challenge
• Payer & Policy Maker Influence on Budgets
• New HTA initiatives
• Rise of sophisticated MEAs
• Data Protection (GDPR)
12
New wave of innovation is apparent through an explosion of approvals for NMEs in the last few years…
EMA NME (new molecular entity) approvals by therapy area
0
15
30
4541
29
2013
15
2012 20152014
Num
ber
of
pro
ducts
14
2011
5
Musculo-Skeletal
Dermatology
Genito-Urinary
Cardiovascular
Alimentary
Nervous system
Respiratory
Anti-Infectives
Blood
Antineoplastic
Source: IQVIA HTA Accelerator
13
• ~60% of NMEs in 2015 were
priced at a discount to price
comparator, vs. ~20% in 2012
• Oncology products account for
the highest proportion of list
price premiums in 2015 NME
cohort
… however all players are experiencing growing price pressure from payers as they try to contain budgets
Comparative price premiums of EMA New Molecule Entities (NMEs)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20152014201320122011
-5 ~ 5%
-6 ~ -20%6 ~ 20% -36 ~ -99%
-21 ~ -35%21 ~ 35%
36 ~ 99%
>100%
Source: IQVIA HTA Accelerator
14
Similarly, Orphan Drug approvals surge in Europe…
10
18
20
14
7
11
54
10
6
0
5
10
15
20
2017*20162015201420132008 2012201120102009
Orphan drugs in Europe with European Market
Authorisation by approval year (2001-16) – 135 in total
Source: European Medicines Agency October 2017; *to Oct 2017 only
• 146 medicines were reviewed by
the EMA for orphan designation
since 2001-2016.
• As of 2016:
• 90 are approved Orphans
• 45 have been withdrawn
• 11 were refused designation
• 91% (82) of approved Orphan
drugs in 2016 have sales in Europe
in MIDAS
15Source: IQVIA HTA Accelerator
… but restricted or negative outcomes are becoming more common in orphan drug assessments
* Positive = full access as per label; Restricted = access but with label restrictions; negative = no access granted
** In DE, Positive = “minor” or “major additional benefit” rating, Restricted = “non-quantifiable additional benefit”
rating, no negative ratings due to OD law mandating that drugs with OD designation automatically receive an
“additional benefit” rating
Orphan Designated Drug HTA Outcomes
(2013-2016)
22% 29% 27% 24%
43%31%
22%
14%
43%
89%72%
29%42%
78%62%
100%
57%
11%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2013-
2016
2006-
2012
2013-
2016
6%
2006-
2012
2013-
2016
2013-
2016
2006-
2012
2006-
2012
Restrictive outcome Negative outcomePositive outcome
n = 18 50 14 56 5 32 9 28
16
EBPs are in the driving seat of extreme innovation, with over 220 highly promising breakthrough therapies
Source: Pharmaprojects, Datamonitor Healthcare, Regenerative Medicine Landscape, Pharma Trends / Regenerative Medicine July 2017
Active medicine therapy developers in the pipeline, preclinical to pre-registration
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Novart
is
Celp
rogen
iCell
Gene T
hera
peutics
RE
GE
NX
BIO
Sorr
ento
Thera
peutics
Kite P
harm
a
Juno T
hera
peutics
Zio
pharm
Oncolo
gy
Cellu
lar
Bio
medic
ine
Intr
exon
Geneth
on
NantK
west
Takeda
Sanofi
AG
TC
Editas
Oxfo
rd B
ioM
edic
a
Note: The figure shows companies with 10 or more pipeline products. The company list includes counts as both an originator and licensee
Num
be
r o
f p
rod
ucts
in d
eve
lop
ment
17
Pipeline by Technology Class*
Phase II to Reg
5%
Cell therapy2%
Gene therapy6%
Antibiotic/-bacterial
3%
Other recomb. proteins
5%
Other proteins/peptides
10%
Other/Non specified
13%
55%
Vaccines/antivirals
mAb/mAb
drug conjugated
Cell and gene therapies by phase
Phase II to Reg
43
61Cell therapy
RNAi 19
Antisense/
oligonucleotide
6
Other
gene therapies53
6Exon skipping
Hydrolase
Nucleoside
analogue
20
Oncolytic virus
13
Phase III Registered
Phase II Pre-registration
Immuno-Oncology and Cell & Gene therapies are at the forefront of the new wave of technologies
Source: IQVIA R&D Focus October 2017; Thought Leadership analysis; active phase only
*Not specified excluded (717 products)® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018 Source: IQVIA R&D Focus October 2017; Thought Leadership analysis
18
Immuno-Oncology PD-1 and PD-L1 Inhibitor Uptake in the United States
Immuno-Oncology’s remarkable clinical profile offers unique opportunity through rapid indication expansion
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Nov 2
014
Dec 2
014
Jan 2
015
Feb 2
015
Mar
2015
Apr
2015
May 2
015
Jun 2
015
Jul 201
5
Aug 2
015
Sep 2
015
Oct 2015
Nov 2
015
Dec 2
015
Jan 2
016
Feb 2
016
Mar
2016
Apr
2016
May 2
016
Jun 2
016
Jul 201
6
Aug 2
016
Sep 2
016
Oct 2016
Nov 2
016
Dec 2
016
Jan 2
017
Feb 2
017
Mar
2017
Exte
nd
ed
Un
its T
ho
us
an
ds
Non-Squamous NSCLC
BRAF V600 Wild-Type
Melanoma
(combination with
ipilimimab)
pembrolizumab approvals
nivolumab approvals
atezolizumab approvals
avelumab approval
Squamous
NSCLC
Renal Cell
Carcinoma
BRAF V600
Wild-Type
Melanoma
MelanomaNSCLC
PD-L1+
Melanoma
(first line)
Bladder
Cancer
Melanoma across
BRAF status
(combination with ipilimimab)
Hodgkin
Lymphoma
Head and
Neck Squamous
Cell CarcinomaBladder Cancer
Head and
Neck Squamous
Cell Carcinoma
NSCLC
(first line)
Hodgkin
Lymphoma
Merkel
cell
carcinoma
Source: U.S. FDA, QuintilesIMS, National Sales Perspectives, Feb 2017; QuintilesIMS Institute, Apr 2017
19
Cell & Gene therapies, on the other hand, offer unique value across large number of under- or un-treated diseases
Number of pipeline candidates by Top 10 companies
Phase II to Reg
4
5
5
6
8
9
19
2
1
3
3
4
2
GSK
AGTC
Sanofi
Novartis 5
5
Celgene 5
Kite Pharma
Sangamo
Therapeutics
J&J
Alnylam
Ionis
Cell therapy
Gene therapy
Major therapeutic areas of pipeline products
Phase II to Reg
5%Metabolic disease
Ophthalmology6%
Infectious diseaseHaematology
Genetic disorder
12%8%
8%
Oncology34%
6%CNS
6%Musculoskeltal
4%
Cardiology11%
Other
Source: IQVIA R&D Focus October 2017; Thought Leadership analysis
20
CAR T-cells, RNAi and CRISPR gene editing are key therapy approaches of cell and gene therapy
Source: Nature news; IQVIA R&D Focus October 2017; Thought Leadership analysis® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
…are modified cells with engineered
receptors, which graft an arbitrary
specificity onto an immune effector cell
Key companies/partners
Novartis, Celgene, Merck, Amgen, Pfizer,
Servier, GSK, Gilea/Kite Pharma, Juno,
Cellectis, Celyad
Key therapy areas
Leukemia, cancer
CAR T-cells
T-cell
modification
…is an efficient and stable process in
which RNA molecules inhibit gene
expression or translation
Key companies/partners
Alnylam, Sanofi Genzyme, BMS, Quark
Pharmaceuticals, Sylentis
Key therapy areas
Cancer, hepatitis, ophthalmological
disorder
RNAi
(RNA interference/silencing)
DNA mRNA Protein
RNAi
…are techniques which are more
powerful, rapid and less expensive than
any previously invented process
Key companies/partners
Caribou Biosciences, CRISPR Therap.,
Editas Medicine, Intelia Therap.,
Regeneron, Novartis, Vertex, Bayer, Juno
Key therapy areas
Rare genetic diseases, cancer, HIV, organ
transplants
Gene editing technologies,
including CRISPR
DNANew
mRNA
New
Protein
Guided
new
sequence
Source: IQVIA R&D Focus October 2017; Thought Leadership analysis
21® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
They improve safety, convenience and compliance, prolonging the lifecycle of therapies
Innovation increasingly covers novel application technologies
Lucideon’s iCRT
Ceramic Pills
Biotech’s
Microchip
Intarcia’s
Medici Mini-Pump
Otzuka’s Sensor-enabled
Abilify MyCite
Problem: Opioid abuse epidemic
Drug: Opioid painkillers
Innovation: Ceramic pills
Outcome: Abuse deterrent
Problem: Daily injections
Drug: Parathyroid hormone
Innovation: Microchip implant
Outcome: Precise automated dosing
Problem: Daily injections
Drug: Exenatide (GLP-1)
Innovation: Mini-pump implant
Outcome: Convenient dosing
Problem: Non-Compliance
Drug: Schizophrenia drug (Abilify)
Innovation: Drug embedded sensor
Outcome: Adherence tracking
Deters abuse
via
Heating
Dissolving
CrushingExtraction
Chewing
Source: IQVIA European Thought Leadership; Device company websites
22
The value from this shift is also being captured by the Third Sector (Value Added Medicines)
Precision medicine, adaptive clinical
trials, conditional market access,
sophisticated real world data
measurement, and analysis
New Chemical
EntitiesSmall Molecule
Generics
The Third Sector
Route of Administration
Indication extension
Reformulation
CombinationPatent protection
Better outcomes
Better patient experience
More Effective
Greater convenience
Improved compliance
FeaturesPossesses a brand plus at least one other of these features
BenefitsDelivers an advantage to patients, payers or provider on at
least one of these benefits
Safety
Nanotechnology
23
Third Sector products fall on a spectrum of innovation
Source: IQVIA European Thought Leadership
Low innovation High innovation
• Lower price premium
• Lower barrier to entry
• Lower R&D cost
• Higher price premium
• Higher barrier to entry
• Higher R&D cost
Lower level innovation
• Combination
• Formulation
• Dermal patches
Incremental innovation
• Inhalers
• Auto-injectors
Novel delivery technologies
• Nanoparticles
• Microchips
• Minipumps
24
Innovation & Competitive Dynamics
• Specialty & Targeted Therapies
• Rise of Disruptive Approaches (Cell & Gene)
• Biosimilars 2nd Wave
• Value Added Generics
PharmaCo’s landscape 2018 onwards…
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Evolving Commercial Model
• Commercial Organization of the Future
• Multichannel: Orchestrated Customer
Engagement
• Intense Patient Focus
Digital Opportunities
• Health Apps
• Digitally Enabled Devices
• Digital Biomarkers
The Regulatory Challenge
• Payer & Policy Maker Influence on Budgets
• New HTA initiatives
• Rise of sophisticated MEAs
• Data Protection (GDPR)
25® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Increasing emphasis on drug cost-value
NHS England Cancer Drugs Fund being included under
NICE QALY assessment
NICE QALY cost-effective threshold being reviewed
Italian and French MoH reviewing current drug
reimbursement systems
Post launch payer led RWE scrutiny
France NOAC re-assessment based in part on own RWE
Italy and France Avastin reimbursement for use in AMD
Infliximab switching NOR-SWITCH
Budget caps and pharma payback schemes
Portugal and Italy reviewing payback mechanisms for budget
overspend
French HCV spending cap
UK Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (PPRS) scheme
Payers in Europe are focused on managing therapy cost,using variety of novel mechanisms…
Price negotiation collaboration and net price transparency
Netherlands and Belgium announced pilot collaborative price
negotiations for orphan drugs
Greek and Portuguese health ministers
call for increasing payer collaborations
Controlling
Costs
Source: IQVIA Thought Leadership analysis
26
Collaborative purchasing is gaining momentum; though few initiatives have succeeded thus far
Joint purchasing agreement focused on Orphan drugs
• Pioneered by Netherlands and Belgium
• Joined by Luxembourg and Austria
• Ireland announced it would join
Bulgaria and Romania have entered an agreement to jointly
negotiate pricing and availability
Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy have called for greater collaboration within the EU to
drive down prices
Sweden increasing joint purchasing of high cost drugs across
county councils
EU commission exploring EU wide pharmaceutical price control
measures, centred around collaboration and price transparency
Dutch insurers introducing joint hospital purchasing schemes for
biologics
Italy restricting confidential pricing agreements
27
The EUnetHTA initiative is seeking to tackle the challenge of putting joint HTA assessments into real life
Joint Action 1
(2010-2012)
Joint Action 2
(2013-2015)
Joint Action 3
2016 - 2019
• Attempt to lower barriers for collaboration
• Deliver context specific reporting of HTA
results, e.g. new application of the HTA
Core Model
• Establish a sustainable structure for HTA
in the EU
• Bringing collaboration to a higher level
resulting in better understanding
• 15 joint pilot assessments performed
during EUnetHTA JA2 (2012-2015)
• Model for scientific & technical cooperation
• Pilot results need to be put into the “real
life” routine HTA production processes of
the EUnetHTA participating organizations
Coordinator: Health Authority DK Coordinator: Zorginstituut NL (ZIN)
Putting HTA collaboration at EU
level into practice
Strengthening practical
application of tools and approaches
Implementing a sustainable
mechanism for HTA cooperation
9 Guidelines
1 Pilot - Rapid Relative Effectiveness
Assessment (REA)
5 Guidelines
6 (Drugs) / 6 (Medical Devices)
Pilot Rapid (REA)
11 Early Dialogues
37 (Drug) / 43 (Medical Devices)
Pilot Rapid (REA)
35 Early Dialogues
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018 Source: IQVIA Thought Leadership analysis
28
Multiple types of Innovative Agreements (or MEAs) are possible…
INCA Presentation November 2017
Contracting Description
Clinical
Outcomes dependant Reimbursement dependent on demonstrated outcome/ performance (aka Risk share agreements)
Additional evidence
dependant
Access linked to generation of additional evidence to address remaining uncertainty e.g. related to
safety and/ or efficacy; often linked to doubts about real world performance or long-term outcomes
Financial
Price volume linkage Price reduced as volume increases beyond a specified threshold
Cost/patient capping Total cost to payer capped at a certain figure
Discounting Discounts/rebates provided directly to payers
Cost spreading Payment of costs spread across a period of time
Free additional devices/
goods Additional services provided to enhance a product’s value proposition (typically linked to
compliance and therefore efficacy and/ or safety), making it easier for payers to price/ give access
to the new product
Relationship building can also be an incentive, typically of non-product related servicesServices
Disease awareness/
education
Patient support
programs
29
Possible types of contracts
PAYER NEEDS
Efficacy certainty Safety certainty Position certaintyManageable
budget impact
Cost
effectiveness
Clinical
Outcomes dependant ✓ ✓ ✓
Additional evidence
dependant ✓ ✓ ✓
Financial
Price volume linkage ✓ ✓
Cost/ patient capping ✓ ✓
Discounting ✓ ✓
Cost spreading ✓
Free additional devices/
goods ✓
Services
Disease awareness/
education ✓
Patient support
programs ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
But only few Innovative Agreements are perceived as “mutually beneficial”; those that are may not always be “innovative”
INCA Presentation November 2017
Illustrative
30
Clinical Commercial
Regulatory pressure goes way beyond pricing & reimbursement.PharmaCo’s must comply with increasingly complex regulation
Required
across
lifecycle &
value chain…
… with growing
scope & cost
Diverse stakeholdersFrequent Changes
• Therapy innovation
• Data submission and
exchange (E2BR3)
• Product Definitions IDMP
• Data privacy & security
Pre Clinical
Increased volumes
• Trials
• AEs & ADRs
• M&A
• Product approvals
• Emerging markets
Complex sources
• Social Media/Apps
• Patient data
• Devices data
• Activity data (CRM)
• Payer/Provider: Cost
• Patients/HCPs: Outcomes
at low risk
• Others: anti-bribery, fraud,
transparency, …
Requirement: Capabilities, integrated & at scale
• Domain expertise: 100+ functional areas
• Keep current of frequently changing regulations
• Global and local geographic reach
Today’s reality:
• Fragmented, point solutions, built on aged technologies
• Varied organization designs, multiple buyers and budgets
• No vendor with end-to-end solutions across lifecycle & globe
• Large internal spend – 60% insourced
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Regulatory
AffairsPharmacovigilance Medical Affairs CommercialManufacturing Other Legal
Source: IQVIA
31
Fully in force 25th May 2018
GDPR replaces current EU data protection laws and means multi-layer compliance complexity for PharmaCo
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Member state* laws
A29WP and DPA guidelines
GDPR baseline rules
Anonymous data
Prescriber behavior
Prescriber contact data
CRO investigator
data
Clinical trial patient data
Business contact data
HR dataWeb user
data
Personal data is any identified or identifiable data
Source: IQVIA
32
Innovation & Competitive Dynamics
• Specialty & Targeted Therapies
• Rise of Disruptive Approaches (Cell & Gene)
• Biosimilars 2nd Wave
• Value Added Generics
PharmaCo’s landscape 2018 onwards…
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Evolving Commercial Model
• Commercial Organization of the Future
• Multichannel: Orchestrated Customer
Engagement
• Intense Patient Focus
Digital Opportunities
• Health Apps
• Digitally Enabled Devices
• Digital Biomarkers
The Regulatory Challenge
• Payer & Policy Maker Influence on Budgets
• New HTA initiatives
• Rise of sophisticated MEAs
• Data Protection (GDPR)
33
Digital Health is now covering all parts of a patient journey
Monitoring, Advice & Behavior Mgmt.
• Exercise & Fitness
• Diet & Nutrition
• Lifestyle & Stress
• Sleep/Insomnia
• Smoking Cessation
• Alcohol Moderation
= Digital Health Use Categories
Well-being and Prevention
= Patient Journey
Information & Motivation to Act
• General Healthcare Information
• Symptom Checking
• Finding a Clinician
• Managing Clinical and Financial Information
• Social Media
Symptom Onset and Seeking Care
Diagnosis and Treatment Decision
Condition Education & Management
• Self-Monitoring
• Remote Patient Monitoring
• App-Enabled Rehabilitation Program
ConditionMonitoring
Prescription Filling & Compliance
• Prescription Discounts
• Prescription Filling
• Medication Management & Adherence
Treatment
Physician recommends
app-supported disease
management programs,
connected sensors for
remote monitoring, or apps
for any use case across
the patient journey
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018 Source: IQVIA AppScript Use Categories. IQVIA Institute, Sep 2017
34
The number of Health Apps doubled in 2 years, with anincreasing focus on health condition management
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Number of Digital Health Apps (‘000)
Source: 42 Matters, Jul 2017; Mevvy, Jun 2015; IQVIA AppScript App Database, Jul 2015; IQVIA Institute, Jul 2017
Wellness Management
Health Condition Management
19%
72%
13%
40%
2017
Diet & Nutrition
19%
30%
12%
Lifestyle & Stress
61%
Fitness
2015
18%
Healthcare Providers / Insurance
Disease Specific
Women’s Health & Pregnancy
Medication Reminders & Info
20172015
10%
16%
9%
11%
4%
40%
28%
3%
7%
8%
48%
319
165
67
+148%
201720152013
+93%
35
Besides being part of consumer & patients life, digital solutions are frequently used in clinical trials and Real World studies
Average Enrollment N = 1156 N = 192 N = 3175 N = 99 N = 296
N = 540 Unique Trials
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
241435
159
357
OtherTelemedicineWeb AppsSensorsMobile
Apps and
Messaging
Number of Clinical Trials including
Digital Health Technologies (by type)Examples of Trials with Digital Health
• Roche: Use of a smartphone and
ACCU-CHEK Connect system application
for patient self-monitoring blood glucose
to determine impact on diabetes-related
distress questionnaires
• Proteus Digital Health: Trials using an
ingestion sensor and a wearable sensor
patch to collect information about patients
taking antiretroviral medications and
tuberculosis medications with feedback
of adherence
Sources: Clinicaltrials.gov, Feb 2017; IQVIA Institute, Jul 2017Notes: Total percent exceeds 100% due to inclusion of multiple digital health types in a single trial; Connected devices connect to an app, EMR or other interface; Mobile apps include use of phones to deliver text messages; Other includes offline computer apps, tablet video or virtual Interaction programs; Web apps are presumed to be mobile accessible.
36
Innovation & Competitive Dynamics
• Specialty & Targeted Therapies
• Rise of Disruptive Approaches (Cell & Gene)
• Biosimilars 2nd Wave
• Value Added Generics
PharmaCo’s landscape 2018 onwards…
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Evolving Commercial Model
• Commercial Organization of the Future
• Multichannel: Orchestrated Customer
Engagement
• Intense Patient Focus
Digital Opportunities
• Health Apps
• Digitally Enabled Devices
• Digital Biomarkers
The Regulatory Challenge
• Payer & Policy Maker Influence on Budgets
• New HTA initiatives
• Rise of sophisticated MEAs
• Data Protection (GDPR)
37Source: IQVIA
On the commercial side of pharma, we are in the midst of a paradigm shift
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018 Source: QuintilesIMS Thought Leadership Publication 2017: Channel Preference vs. Promotional Reality
Past ParadigmCompetitive advantage driven by:
Promotional scale in primary care
Focus on prescribers
Future ParadigmCompetitive advantage driven by:
Promotional precision in specialty
Targeting prescribers plus KOLs,
access stakeholders & patients
One approach fits manyA tailored approach
for each individual customer
Pharma’s value will be driven by a different commercial model
Promoting the productThat, plus innovative
solutions to differentiate beyond
38® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Ab
bvie
GS
K
BM
S
Bio
ge
n
Astr
aZ
en
eca
Roch
e
JN
J
Eli
Lill
y
Pfize
r
Me
rck &
Co
Me
rck K
Ga
A
Novo
No
rdis
k
Te
va
Am
ge
n
Sa
no
fi
Nova
rtis
Gile
ad
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Change in SGA % of Sales, 2015-16 SG&A % of Sales, 2016
Source: IQVIA Institute Annual Report analysis; Note that companies will not be “pure” pharma in all cases
SG&A spend as % of sales has been declining for many players, with sales forces in Europe undergoing considerable downsizing
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
-24%
France
-38%
UK
-12%
Germany Other
Europe
-34%
EU5
-27%
Italy
-16%
Spain
-21%
Evolution of FTE number 2011-2016
Changes in SG&A % of sales 2015-16
SG&A % of sales 2016
39® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Reps agree: Change is coming to the customer-facing team…
Access to HCPs is increasingly challenging
60%-85% of respondents believe it has become
significantly more difficult to access doctors over the last
two years, and see this trend continuing
According to reps, the main drivers will be:
• Less time for F2F meetings: 59-78%
• Increasing restrictions on access: 46%-56%
• Improvement of digital communication: 25-38%
(English/French), # new products (German, 24%)
• 57% of reps said that digital channels had a
positive impact on their ability to do the job
• 94% found their iPads useful
• 74% agreed that HCPs (of all types) respond
best to digital channels in conjunction with F2F
Digital channels are generally
viewed positively
Understanding the environment will be at
core of rep development needs
To optimise success, reps say they will need to improve their knowledge of:
• Country healthcare system decision-making and funding environment
• Outcomes data and real world insights for products they promote
• Specialty therapies and diseases
Reps also believe they will need to improve digital and social media skills
Source: IQVIA Thought Leadership Survey of CSO “The changing role of the rep” – May 2017 (UK only)
40
Technology that supports an
orchestrated approach to
customer engagement
PharmaCo’s need to be
Tech & social media savvy
Reps become one of many:
Specialty rep, nurse educators
and support, payer liaison,
KAMs,…
New skills are demanded:
• Remote communication
• Disease insight
• Healthcare system insight
• Team working
• Customer networking
Commercial team is likely
to be smaller but with a
broader mix of functions
Pharma’s future value will be driven by a very different commercial team
Source: IQVIA Thougth Leadership analysis
Pharma’s future
customer facing team
Smaller
Different skills
More techenabled
More diverse roles
Source: IQVIA
41® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Orchestrated Customer Engagement (OCE) = Breaking down silos, aligning across channels and using all customer insights
Source: IQVIA
• Siloed Engagement
• Fragmented data
• One approach fits many, if not all
• Focus on lagging indicators of success
Today Future
• Engagement aligned across functions
• One source of data, available for advanced analytics
• Individual, or at least tailored customer approach
• A learning system, constantly leveraging leading indicators
42® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Intense Patient Focus starts with helping physicians to identify their patients for a therapy…
Source: IQVIA Thought Leadership Survey of CSO “The changing role of the rep” – May 2017 (UK only)
Identify patients and analyze their medical history PRIOR to 1st diagnosis of the disease
Medical history prior to 1st diagnosis of disease
Patient 1st diagnosed
with disease
Tests &
Diagnostic
Procedures
Treatment
s
Comorbidities/
Misdiagnoses
Specialist
/ER visitsSymptoms
Demographics
Age+
Patients with
the disease
1
Develop an algorithm to identify unique disease
patterns in patients’ pre-diagnosis medical history
Identify patients in wider universe who are identified
by the algorithm as potentially undiagnosed
Patients identified by the algorithm
2 3
43® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
… and might go as far as providing a fully integrated solution to support physicians and patients during therapy
Source: IQVIA Thought Leadership Survey of CSO “The changing role of the rep” – May 2017 (UK only)
Web services
Mobile App
Call center support
Online community
Differentiating Services Use of Real World evidence
PatientPhysician
Stakeholder ecosystem
Integrated solutions
Ensure patients and physicians can be identified
and followed through course of therapy
Designing, developing
and deploying nurse &
web services, mobile
App, call center support,
and online community
Build technology solution
and processes to collect
real world evidence across
markets and use it to
improve therapy success
One reference data base
Drug safety &
compliance
Track adverse
events
throughout all
channels to
ensure full
compliance
Nurse Support
44
Innovation & Competitive Dynamics
• Specialty & Targeted Therapies
• Rise of Disruptive Approaches (Cell & Gene)
• Biosimilars 2nd Wave
• Value Added Generics
PharmaCo’s landscape 2018 onwards…
® 2018 IQVIA Commercial – Pharma Trends 2018
Evolving Commercial Model
• Commercial Organization of the Future
• Multichannel: Orchestrated Customer
Engagement
• Intense Patient Focus
Digital Opportunities
• Health Apps
• Digitally Enabled Devices
• Digital Biomarkers
The Regulatory Challenge
• Payer & Policy Maker Influence on Budgets
• New HTA initiatives
• Rise of sophisticated MEAs
• Data Protection (GDPR)