1

Global Monitoring Report 2008MDGs and the Environment

Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development

2

World on track on poverty reduction and gender parity at school MDGs, but serious shortfalls likely on nutrition, education, health, and sanitation goals

dd

3

Africa lags on all MDGs, South Asia on most human development goals. At country level,

most countries are off track to meet most MDGs

4

Progress toward MDGs slowest in fragile states—even negative on some MDGs

5

Agenda ahead• Assessment at midpoint shows urgent need to generate

stronger, more inclusive momentum toward the MDGs

• With stronger efforts by countries and by development partners, most MDGs still achievable for most countries

• As MDG 7 underscores, development and environmental sustainability are integrally linked

• In this Year of Action for MDGs, need to agree on priority actions and milestones for monitoring progress

• Report emphasizes a six-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development

6

MDGs and the environment: A six-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development

• Sustain and broaden the growth momentum• Achieve better results in human development• Integrate development and environmental

sustainability• Scale up aid and increase its effectiveness• Harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable

growth• Leverage IFI support for inclusive and sustainable

development

7

Increased risks from financial turbulence—developing-country growth slowing but still robust

0

2

4

6

8

10

World output Advancedeconomies

Emerging marketand developing

countries

Developing Asia Africa

2007 2008 (Projected) 2009 (Projected)

annual % change

8

Private capital flows expected to ease but remain relatively abundant

Net private capital flows to developing countries

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008P0

2

4

6

8

$ billions Percent

Percent of GDP (right axis)

$1 trillion in 2007

9

Sharp rises in energy and food prices add to risks

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

grains raw materials metals energy

Commodity Price Index (1990=100)

10

Diversity of food price impacts on povertyImpact of food price increases in 2005-07 on $1/day poverty

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Bolivia

Cambodia

Madag

asca

r

Malawi

Nicarag

ua

Pakist

an

Peru

Vietna

m

Zambia

Averag

e

$1/day poverty rate

Rural Urban Total

11

Rising food prices—countries are responding, but differently

Percentage of 58 countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Reduc

e foo

dgrain

taxe

s

Increas

e foo

dgra

in sto

cks

Expor

t res

tricti

ons

Price c

ontrols

/consu

mer su

bsidies

None

Safety net interventions Food price policies

Percentage of 58 countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Cash t

ransfe

r

Food

for w

orkFo

od ra

tion/s

tamp

Schoo

l feed

ing

12

Growth in Africa has improved, but varies widely across countries

13

Growth Policies: priorities vary by country, but three essentials: sound macro; conducive private investment

climate (incl. infrastructure); and good governance

Note: Lower number denotes higher ranking

Ease of Doing Business Rankings, 2008

22

76 7787

96107

136

76

91

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

OECD HighIncome

EasternEurope

andCentral

Asia

East Asia& the

Pacific

LatinAmerica &

theCaribbean

MiddleEast &NorthAfrica

South Asia Sub-Saharan

Africa

Pakistan Vietnam India

14

Governance mattersQuality of overall public sector management and institutions

Note: A higher score denotes better performance.

World Bank CPIA indicators, 2006 (scale 1-6)

2.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.8

Middle-income

countries

Low-income

countries

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Pakistan Vietnam India

15

Growth needs to be more inclusive—both across and within countries

Annual change in Gini coefficient in 59 developing countries

16

More but better spending on education and healthPublic spending on education and health typically favors the rich

17

National income positively related to health quality—public health spending alone is notRelationship of health quality to income and public health spending

18

Stronger focus needed on combating malnutrition—higher food prices increase urgency

Incidence of stunting remains high in low-income countries

19

Environmental health risks—a significant concernEconomic burden of poor environmental health can be high—

1.5-4% of GDP annually

20

Environment and growth: many countries are on an unsustainable long-term path

Adjusted net saving trends,1990-2005

21

Natural resource dependence patterns vary across regions/income groups

Depletion of natural resources is often associated with declining national wealth

Developing countries’ heavier dependence on natural resources makes sound resource management

especially critical for sustainability

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Major oil producers

Perc

ent o

f GN

I

Non-renewable resource rentsAdjusted net saving

22

Harnessing resource extraction for future growth―some do better than others

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60S

yria

n A

rab

Rep

ublic

Ang

ola

Nig

eria

Bol

ivia

Iran,

Isla

mic

Rep

.E

cuad

orR

ussi

an F

eder

atio

nS

udan

Zim

babw

eV

enez

uela

, RB

Chi

leZa

mbi

aE

gypt

, Ara

b R

ep.

Indo

nesi

aA

lger

iaS

outh

Afri

caP

akis

tan

Col

ombi

aC

ongo

, Dem

. Rep

.M

exic

oU

krai

neA

rgen

tina

Aus

tralia

Per

uC

anad

aB

razi

lV

ietn

amTu

nisi

aM

alay

sia

Nor

way

Indi

aC

hina

Per

cent

of G

NI

Adjusted net savingEnergy and mineral rentsLess sustainable

More sustainable

23

Depletion of natural resources: it’s not just oilAnnual forest loss equal in size to Panama or Sierra Leone

Annual deforestation by region and income group, 2000-05

24

Water stress is especially acute in Middle East and South Asia

Internal freshwater resources per capita, 2005

25

Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change and least able to adapt

Impact of climate change on agricultural yields, 2079-99

26

Climate change impacts health, particularly in Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East

Estimated deaths due to climate change in 2000, by WHO subregion

27

Sea level rise will have major impacts, especially in more vulnerable countries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Population GDP Urban Areas Wetlands

% im

pact

ed

LAC MNA SSA EAP SAR 10 most affected countries Vietnam

Impact of a 1 meter rise in sea level

28

Climate vulnerability: Weather damage index

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500E

thio

pia

Moz

ambi

que

Sud

anD

jibou

tiB

otsw

ana

Tong

aS

amoa

Laos

PD

RS

olom

on Is

land

sP

hilip

pine

sV

ietn

amH

ondu

ras

Ant

igua

Bar

bado

sB

eliz

eH

aiti

Nic

arag

ua Iran

Jord

anTu

nisi

aY

emen

Ban

glad

esh

Indi

aS

ri La

nka

Pak

ista

nM

aldi

ves

SSA LAC MNA SAREAP

29

Mitigation calls for common but differentiated responsibilities

Per capita GHG emissions (including from land use change), 2000

30

One-third of developing world’s population is without access to electricity

Population without access to electricity, 2005

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

China and East Asia

South Asia

Latin America

Middle East

Developing Countries

Transition economies and OECD

Percent

31

Sources of Greenhouse Gas EmissionsBoth Brown and Green Issues

32

Global Environmental Sustainability-One Size Does Not Fit All

Sub-soil resource rich countries (e.g. Mozambique)Invest resource rents, improve governance

Rapidly urbanizing countries (e.g. Vietnam) Manage pollution from transport and industry

Agriculture-dependent countries (e.g. Ethiopia)Manage land and water resources, diversify assets

Biodiversity rich countries (e.g. Peru) – Conserve natural areas, tap global finance for conservation, develop ecotourism

High child mortality countries (e.g. Mali)Provide water and sanitation, improve access to electricity

Countries in transition (e.g. Ukraine) Increase energy efficiency and control pollution

High deforestation countries (e.g. Brazil) – Eliminate perverse incentives, improve governance

Increasing water scarcity (e.g. MNA)Increase water use efficiency, define water use rights

Rapidly growing countries (e.g. China, India) Reduce carbon intensity of growth

High income countriesProvide global public goods – e.g. Kyoto and beyond

33

Common but differentiated responsibilities across countries

Carbon intensity of GDP must be reduced by:•pricing / trading carbon•development and diffusion of cleaner, energy efficient technologies•development of renewable energy•financing and technology transfer•reducing deforestation using carbon finance

For developing countries, best way to adapt is to develop, which will:•diversify economies •reduce climate-sensitive diseases: malaria, malnutrition and diarrhea •provide the resources to adapt

Programs to reduce vulnerability and “climate proof” investments

Implementing early warning systems for heat waves, floods, droughts

Building dams to accommodate increased runoff

Climate Change Priorities

Mitigation Adaptation

34

Countries’ absorptive capacity rising, but aid fallingDAC members’ net ODA flows

35

Donor performance varies widelyDAC members’ ODA

36

Time to deliver on aid commitments is nowMost of the promised increase in aid has not yet materialized

*Based on commitments made at Gleneagles and other donor commitments in 2005

0

30

60

90

120

150

All DAC donors G7 donors All DAC donors G7 donors

2004 2007 2010 target*

2004 US$ billions

Total Net ODA Net ODA to SSA

37

Doha remains crucialSupport to agriculture has not been declining

Gross subsidy equivalents of assistance to farmers, 1960-2004

38

Increase aid for trade—to promote inclusiveness in exploitation of trade opportunities

Aid for trade, average 2002-06

39

Trade policy should facilitate transfer of environmentally friendly technologies

Environmental goods currently confront significant trade restrictiveness

Trade Restrictiveness Index (%)

40

MDBs had record disbursements in 2007Even as their relative financing role declines, international financial institutions’ impact through leverage remains key

MDBs’ gross disbursements by type of flow and region, 2000-07

41

Extra Slides

42

Depletion of natural resources: it’s not just oil

Annual deforestation (2000-2005) Freshwater availability (trends and projections)

43

Monitoring environmental policies and institutions

Progress in institutional and policy performance has been uneven across

regions (CPIA environment scores)

CPIA disaggregated scores show that there is a gap between policy formulation and

capacity to enforce

44

Climate change impacts on agriculture

Impact of baseline global warming on agriculture (by 2080)

-40-30-20-10

010203040

MWI ZAR TZA NER GNB USA NOR CHE DNK NLD

% c

hang

e in

out

put

Countries with lowest GDP Countries with highest GDP

45

Comparison of emissions for Annex I and Non-Annex I countries

Annex I: Developed countries Non-Annex I: Developing countries Source: CAIT Version 5.0 (World Resources Institute, 2008)

46

World Bank: Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development

1. Make effective climate action – both adaptation and mitigation – part of core development efforts

2. Address the resource gap through existing and innovative instruments for concessional finance

3. Facilitate the development of innovative market mechanisms

4. Create enabling environment for and leveraging private sector finance

5. Accelerate the deployment of existing and development of new climate-friendly technologies

6. Step-up policy research, knowledge management and capacity building