global investing
DESCRIPTION
GLOBAL INVESTING. IS IT TIME TO RELOCATE SOME OF YOUR PORTFOLIO?. Name Title Company DATE. 2. 3. 1. AGENDA. THE BACKYARD BIAS. HAVING A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE. GLOBAL GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES. THE BACKYARD BIAS. Outside Canada 38%. Canada 62%. CANADIANS HAVE A BACKYARD BIAS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL INVESTING
Name
TitleCompany
DATE
IS IT TIME TO RELOCATE SOME OF YOUR PORTFOLIO?
AGENDA
HAVING A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
THE BACKYARD BIAS
2.
3.
1.
GLOBAL GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
THE BACKYARD BIAS
CANADIANS HAVE A BACKYARD BIAS
CANADIANS HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ASSETS INVESTED IN CANADA
Source: IFIC mutual fund assets, as of June 30, 2011. Includes Equity, Balanced and Fixed Income Mutual Fund Assets.
OutsideCanada
38%
OutsideCanada
38% Canada62%
Canada62%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan-00
Oct-00
Jul-01
Apr-02
Jan-03
Oct-03
Jul-04
Apr-05
Jan-06
Oct-06
Jul-07
Apr-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jul-10
Apr-11
YOU CAN’T BLAME THEM
World
Canada
CANADA HAS OUTPERFORMED THE WORLD MARKET OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS
Source: Morningstar, Canada as represented by the S&P/TSX Total Return Index, World as represented by MSCI World Index in Canadian Dollars. January 3rd, 200 to December 1, 2011. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.
CANADA’S STRONG PERFORMANCE
CONCENTRATION IN 3 SECTORS HAS HELPED PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Energy
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Information Technology
Telecom. Services
Utilities
3 SECTORS: • 78% of Canadian
market
Source: Morningstar, as of November 30th, 2011.
Source: Yahoo Finance. Bank of CanadaDecember 31, 2001 to December 23, 2011
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
12/31/2001 12/12/2002 11/27/2003 11/10/2004 10/26/2005 10/31/2006 10/26/2007 10/10/2008 9/25/2009 9/10/2010 8/25/2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Canadian Dollar
S&P/TSX
CANADA’S STRONG PERFORMANCE
RISE IN DOLLAR HAS MIRRORED RISE IN MARKET
PEFORMANCE FACTORS CHANGE
Source: Morningstar, as of November 23rd, 2011.
CANADIAN CONCENTRATION IN 3 SECTORS HAS HURT PERFORMANCE.
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Energy
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Information Technology
Telecom. Services
Utilities
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
4 SECTORS: • 9% of Canadian
market• 43% of U.S.
market• Positive
performance YTD
YTD: -6.9% YTD: +1%
3 SECTORS: • 78% of Canadian
market • Negative
performance YTD
Sector Weight Sector Performance
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
PEFORMANCE FACTORS CHANGE
Source: Bank of Canada as of January 4th, 2010 to December 1st, 2011.
CANADIAN DOLLAR HAS STABILIZED
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
LONG TERM TREND
CANADA OUTPERFORMS
WORLD OUTPERFORMS
HISTORICALLY CANADIAN OUTPEFORMANCE LED TO LONGER LARGER GLOBAL OUTPERFORMANCE
Difference between S&P/TSX Total Return Index and MSCI World Index ($Cdn) rolling 5 year periods, as of November 30, 2011Source: Morningstar, S&P/TSX Total Return Index and MSCI World Index ($Cdn). The S&P / TSX Total Return Index and MSCI World Index is unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment. Assumes reinvestment of capital gains and dividends and no taxes. Index past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative purposes only.
HAVING A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
TALE OF TWO WORLDS
WORLD BASED ON GEOGRAPHIC SIZE
WORLD BASED ON ECONOMIC SIZE
Source: As of 2008, CIA Factbook for GDP data. Economic size based on GDP Growth Rate. Natural Earth website for shapefiles of the world.
CANADA’S SMALL GLOBAL FOOTPRINT
CANADA2%
CANADA2%
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLDS LARGEST AND MOST RECOGNIZABLE COMPANIES BASED ON THE FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 LIST ARE IN CANADA
Source: Fortune Global 500, 2011.
REST OF THE WORLD
REST OF THE WORLD
6 LARGEST COMPANIES IN THE WORLD ARE LARGER THAN THE ENTIRE CANADIAN MARKET
SMALL GLOBAL FOOTPRINT
MARKET CAPITALIZATION IN 000’S
Source: Morningstar, Financial Times Global 500.Canada’s market cap as of Nov 30, 2011. Companies market caps are as of Oct 31, 2011.
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
$1,800,000
6 Largest Companies Canada
GLOBAL GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
IMPORTANCE OF GLOBAL DIVERSIFICATION
THE BEST PERFORMING COUNTRIES CHANGE FROM YEAR TO YEAR2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Paltrack, Dynamic Funds. All Indices are represented in Canadian dollarsMexico – BMV IPC. U.S. – S&P 500 Total Return. England – FTSE 100 Total Return. Canada – S&P/TSX Total Return. Germany – FSE DAX Total Return. Brazil – BOVESPA. France - Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR. Japan – Nikkei 225 Average PR. Hong Kong – Hang Seng Hong Kong Composite.
Foreign Developed Markets
Canadian Equities
Emerging Markets
CPP HAS GONE GLOBAL
CANADIAN PENSION PLAN INVESTS THE MAJORITY OF THEIR EQUITY PORTFOLIO OUTSIDE OF CANADA
Source: Canadian Pension Plan Annual Report, as of March 31, 2011.
U.S. CORPORATE REVENUE IS DIVERSIFIED
U.S. COMPANIES EARN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF REVENUE OUTSIDE THE U.S.
OutsideU.S. In the
U.S.
Source: RBC Economics, % of revenue of S&P 500 Companies.
AND GROWING
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2007q1 2007q3 2008q1 2008q3 2009q1 2009q3 2010q1 2010q3 2011q1 2011q3
In b
illio
ns
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. CORPORATE PROFITS
HOWEVER U.S. STOCKS REMAIN CHEAP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PRICE TO EARNINGS LEVELS OF THE S&P 500
Source: Morningstar, November 30th 1999 to October 31st 2011.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020
Source: Euromonitor International “Top 10 largest economies in 2020” July 7, 2010
OPPORTUNITY IN EMERGING MARKETS
MILLIONS
NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS IN CHINA WITH DISPOSABLE INCOME ABOVE $10,000 U.S.
THE RISE OF THE DOMESTIC CONSUMER
0
5
10
15
20
25
U.S. India and China
Source: Time Mag. “Your Next Job: Made in India or China” March 17, 2011
MILLIONS
INDIA AND CHINA PURCHASED 70% MORE PASSENGER VEHICLES THAN THE U.S. IN 2010
OPPORTUNITY IN EMERGING MARKETS
Sources: McKinsey & Co. report "Preparing for China's urban billion" March 2009
OPPORTUNITY IN EMERGING MARKETS
CHINA WILL BUILD ENOUGH SKYSCRAPERS TO FILL 10 NEW YORK-SIZED CITIES BY 2025
0
3
6
9
World AdvancedEconomies
Brazil, Russia,India, China
Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, Dec. 2010
EMERGING MARKETS SET TO DRIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH
2012 FORECASTED GDP GROWTH
YOU’RE ALREADY A GLOBAL INVESTOR
Volvo
Automobile
Fiat
Mitsubishi
Volkswagen
Hyundai/Kia
Mazda
Honda
Toyota
Nissan
Mercedes
BMW
Ford
Chrysler
GM
Kitchen
Miele
Siemens
Bosch
Jenn-Air
Kitchenaid
Maytag
Whirlpool
Frigidaire
Electrolux
Computers
eMachines
Gateway
Acer
Dell
Apple
HP
Lenovo
Wireless Phone
Motorola
HTC
Nokia
Samsung
Blackberry
Iphone
Entertainment
Toshiba
Yamaha
Bose
Sharp
Sony
LG
Panasonic
Samsung
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in units value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated
Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any funds managed by Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd. These views are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.
This document is not to be distributed or reproduced without the consent of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel. Dynamic Funds is a division of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd.