global hotel market forecast highlights 13m08 presentation
DESCRIPTION
Changing global economic conditions are impacting international travel and hotel demand. Presentation highlights monthly hotel forecasts for key UK and German markets. New reports launched as result of predictive intelligence collaboration between e-forecasting.com and HotStats. Hotel market forecasts highlights for August for following markets: Berlin, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Munich, Newcastle, Provincial UK and Total UK. Reports also feature 'myhotel' customization which provides property level forecasts for clients as an add-on.TRANSCRIPT
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
UK & German Monthly Hotel Market Forecast August Highlights
Presented byE-forecasting.com
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
10/9/2013
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Monthly Hotel Forecasts
Launched in August 2013, e−forecasting.com released market Monthly Hotel Forecasts of key UK and German markets using HotStats historical data
More markets in Europe and MENA to follow in the coming months
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
10/9/2013
3
Current Forecast Markets
Berlin Birmingham Bristol Cardiff Frankfurt Glasgow Liverpool London Manchester Munich Newcastle Provincial UK Total UK
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10/9/2013
4Monthly Hotel Forecast
Reports Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database 24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Proprietary hotel metrics:
– HIP - hotel industry pulse– HIL - hotel industry leading indicator– FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator– Monthly GDP
Additional econometric insights:– Labor market conditions– Inflation– Exchange and interest rates– Energy prices– Special events
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
10/9/2013
5Monthly Hotel Forecast
Reports – UPDATED FEATURE
‘myhotel’ add-on customization provides property level forecasts
Properties individual data is analyzed within market forecasts and each month clients receive these forecasts in addition to market level details
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
10/9/2013
6UK Hotel Market ForecastAugust Report Highlights
UK countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 2% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 2.2%
Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold
Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar up while
British Pound down
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10/9/2013
7UK Hotel Market Forecast
August Data Highlights UK HIP – up 1.6% UK HIL – up 0.2% Probability of upcoming recession: 23.5% UK Monthly GDP – up 0.2% UK FTLI up 0.1% Consumer prices up 2.7% Unemployment rate at 7.6% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing higher expectations
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10/9/2013
8UK Hotel Forecast Highlights
AugustMarket 2014 RevPAR
Forecast2015 RevPAR
ForecastBirmingham 1.7% 3.4%
Bristol 0.5% 0.7%
Cardiff (2.5%) 1.7%
Glasgow 3.4% (2.9%)
Liverpool 3.1% (0.4%)
London (4.8%) 0.3%
Manchester (0.9%) (2.5%)
Newcastle 6.4% 2.1%
Provincial UK 1.3% (1.5%)
Total UK (1.1%) 0.1%
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10/9/2013
9German Hotel Market Forecast
August Report Highlights
German countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 1.7%
Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold
Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and Euro
increasing
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
10/9/2013
10German Hotel Market Forecast
August Data Highlights German HIP – up 0.5% German HIL – up 0.2% Probability of upcoming recession: 19.5% German Monthly GDP – flat German FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 1.8% Unemployment rate at 5.3% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing lower expectations
Client-tailored solutions for what’s next
10/9/2013
11German Hotel Forecast
August Report HighlightsMarket 2014 RevPAR
Forecast2015 RevPAR
ForecastBerlin (5.1%) (1.4%)
Frankfurt (2.3%) (2.5%)
Munich (5.4%) 4.1%
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10/9/2013
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For More Information
Monthly hotel forecast highlights were taken from the August issue of Monthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit:– http://www.e-forecasting.com or email
[email protected] for subscription rates and queries on additional markets