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UK & German Monthly Hotel Market Forecast August Highlights
Presented byE-forecasting.com
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10/9/2013
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Monthly Hotel Forecasts
Launched in August 2013, e−forecasting.com released market Monthly Hotel Forecasts of key UK and German markets using HotStats historical data
More markets in Europe and MENA to follow in the coming months
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Current Forecast Markets
Berlin Birmingham Bristol Cardiff Frankfurt Glasgow Liverpool London Manchester Munich Newcastle Provincial UK Total UK
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10/9/2013
4Monthly Hotel Forecast
Reports Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database 24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Proprietary hotel metrics:
– HIP - hotel industry pulse– HIL - hotel industry leading indicator– FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator– Monthly GDP
Additional econometric insights:– Labor market conditions– Inflation– Exchange and interest rates– Energy prices– Special events
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10/9/2013
5Monthly Hotel Forecast
Reports – UPDATED FEATURE
‘myhotel’ add-on customization provides property level forecasts
Properties individual data is analyzed within market forecasts and each month clients receive these forecasts in addition to market level details
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10/9/2013
6UK Hotel Market ForecastAugust Report Highlights
UK countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 2% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 2.2%
Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold
Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar up while
British Pound down
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10/9/2013
7UK Hotel Market Forecast
August Data Highlights UK HIP – up 1.6% UK HIL – up 0.2% Probability of upcoming recession: 23.5% UK Monthly GDP – up 0.2% UK FTLI up 0.1% Consumer prices up 2.7% Unemployment rate at 7.6% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing higher expectations
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8UK Hotel Forecast Highlights
AugustMarket 2014 RevPAR
Forecast2015 RevPAR
ForecastBirmingham 1.7% 3.4%
Bristol 0.5% 0.7%
Cardiff (2.5%) 1.7%
Glasgow 3.4% (2.9%)
Liverpool 3.1% (0.4%)
London (4.8%) 0.3%
Manchester (0.9%) (2.5%)
Newcastle 6.4% 2.1%
Provincial UK 1.3% (1.5%)
Total UK (1.1%) 0.1%
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9German Hotel Market Forecast
August Report Highlights
German countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 1.7%
Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold
Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and Euro
increasing
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10/9/2013
10German Hotel Market Forecast
August Data Highlights German HIP – up 0.5% German HIL – up 0.2% Probability of upcoming recession: 19.5% German Monthly GDP – flat German FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 1.8% Unemployment rate at 5.3% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing lower expectations
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11German Hotel Forecast
August Report HighlightsMarket 2014 RevPAR
Forecast2015 RevPAR
ForecastBerlin (5.1%) (1.4%)
Frankfurt (2.3%) (2.5%)
Munich (5.4%) 4.1%
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For More Information
Monthly hotel forecast highlights were taken from the August issue of Monthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit:– http://www.e-forecasting.com or email
[email protected] for subscription rates and queries on additional markets
