global green telecom summit

8/4/2019 Global Green Telecom Summit

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Cairneagle Associates LLP222 Regent Street, London W1B 5TRTelephone: +44 ( 0 ) 870 710 8713Facsimile: +44 ( 0 ) 20 7297 2100

www.cairneagle.com

This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it maybe distributed, quoted, or reproduced without the prior written approval ofCairneagle Associates. This material was prepared by Cairneagle Associates for useduring an oral presentation, it is not a complete record of the discussion.

Global Green Telecom Summit

Investigating the Reliability, Cost and Environmental Benefits of Alternative Energy Sources



Page 1

Clean technology in mobile telecoms networks

Many new base stations, particularly in developing nations, will not be able to

connect to a reliable electricity grid

Currently diesel generators are the predominant off-grid power source, however

• Costly to run

• Require regular fuel distribution and maintenance

• Environmentally unfriendly



Page 2

Rapid expansion in subscriber numbers driven by increased coverage

in rural areas

Latin America and Caribbean

200 250 300

East Asia and Pacific

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe and Central Asia

Off-gridOn grid

10050 150

ANNUAL GROWTH IN BTS IN DEVELOPING REGIONS 2007-’12

(‘000)

Middle East and North Africa TOTAL ANNUAL BTS GROWTH: 290kOFF-GRID ANNUAL BTS GROWTH: 75k

Total

0

Source: Cairneagle analysis, GSMA



Page 3

500200 223

3

40

2 2

30

2

15

20

20

4

7

7

200

Solar-Only

Wind-Only

Wind & Solar

Biofuels

15

14030

Thousands of renewable energy powered base stations planned over next few yrs

Current Renewable Energy Deployments in Developing Countries



Page 4

Implementation – Existing Planned Growth

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

~1,500

Trials/Current

Middle East and

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

East Asia and Pacific

~10,000

Planned

South Asia

# BTS

CURRENT AND PLANNED GREEN POWER BTS

Operators in developing countries arealready planning to scale green powerdeployments

Based on interviews with operators

• Not a comprehensive dataset

• Anticipated and extrapolated futuredeployments up to 2012



Page 5

Running the economic model shows that as load increases, the chance

of achieving an acceptable payback diminish rapidly

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

8 0 0

9 0 0

1 , 0

0 0

1 , 1

1 0

1 , 2

0 0

1 , 3

0 0

1 , 4

0 0

1 , 5

0 0

1 , 6

0 0

1 , 7

0 0

1 , 8

0 0

1 , 9

0 0

2 , 0

0 0

2 , 1

0 0

2 , 2

0 0

2 , 3

0 0

>5 years4-5 years

3-4 years

2-3 years

<2 years

DISTRIBUTION OF BTS-LOAD

Probability

BTS Load (W)

Payback Period

T o t a l

2.2%7.9%

12.3%

12.7%

More than 10% of sites expected to

payback within 3 years; more than35% expected to payback within 5

years

Source: Cairneagle analysis



Page 6

LOAD EFFECT ON IRR BY TECHNOLOGY

IRR

BTS Load (W)

12.3%

12.7%

Economic Summary by Technology Type

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900

Wind-Only

Hybrid

Solar-Only

Source: Cairneagle Analysis



Page 7

Depending on the financial payback that operators require, the number

of green power BTS could reach almost 200k by 2012

0k

20k

40k

60k

80k

100k

New Build Replace

Assuming

5 year

payback

Assuming 3 year

payback

# GP-BTS

POTENTIAL OFF-GRID GREEN POWER BTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY 2012

* Note: Covers new build and replacements; off-grid onlySource: Interviews and Cairneagle Analysis using economic model and Monte Carlo analysis, GSMA

3 year

Payback

5 year

Payback% off-grid BTS sitesviable for greenenergy*

9% 30%

# green BTS by 2012 53k 176k

Reduced dieselconsumption / yr

1.1bn ltrs 3.5bn ltrs

Fuel savings / yr $1.3bn $4.2bn

CO2 emissionreductions / yr

2.8m T CO2 9.6m T CO2



Page 8

Technology - Overview

Diesel: costs increasing; distribution expensive for remote sites

Wind: successful in certain locations, but need a secondary power sourceas back-up

Solar solutions are being successfully deployed in many locations

Proper site dimensioning and use of batteries are key to optimising bothcapital and operating costs

Other solutions, such as hydro, fuel cells and biofuels, will remain niche



Page 9

Some Issues

What % of new and existing sites will be powered by renewable power?

Will renewable energy compliment grid electricity powered base stations?

What are the best technologies?

• Different power requirements

• Different weather conditions

• Future technologies

Operational issues: dimensioning, batteries, controller, diesel as back-up?

Barriers to take-up: future proofing, theft, capex, lack of expertise and knowledge...

Who are the best partners and suppliers?

Carbon credits?



Page 10

Green Power For Mobile

The research was carried out for the GSM Association which represents the interestsof the worldwide mobile communications industry

The GSMA have launched a Green Power for Mobile initiative to drive the adoption of

green power

• Aiding the mobile industry to deploy solar, wind, or sustainable biofuels technologies to 118,000 new and existing off-grid base stations in developing

countries by 2012 • www.gsmworld.com/greenpower



Page 11

Cairneagle Associates

Matt Cooksley

[email protected]

+44 (0) 7739 173721

global green telecom summit

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