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Global Green Telecom Summit
Investigating the Reliability, Cost and Environmental Benefits of Alternative Energy Sources
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Clean technology in mobile telecoms networks
Many new base stations, particularly in developing nations, will not be able to
connect to a reliable electricity grid
Currently diesel generators are the predominant off-grid power source, however
• Costly to run
• Require regular fuel distribution and maintenance
• Environmentally unfriendly
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Rapid expansion in subscriber numbers driven by increased coverage
in rural areas
Latin America and Caribbean
200 250 300
East Asia and Pacific
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe and Central Asia
Off-gridOn grid
10050 150
ANNUAL GROWTH IN BTS IN DEVELOPING REGIONS 2007-’12
(‘000)
Middle East and North Africa TOTAL ANNUAL BTS GROWTH: 290kOFF-GRID ANNUAL BTS GROWTH: 75k
Total
0
Source: Cairneagle analysis, GSMA
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500200 223
3
40
2 2
30
2
15
20
20
4
7
7
200
Solar-Only
Wind-Only
Wind & Solar
Biofuels
15
14030
Thousands of renewable energy powered base stations planned over next few yrs
Current Renewable Energy Deployments in Developing Countries
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Implementation – Existing Planned Growth
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
~1,500
Trials/Current
Middle East and
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia and Pacific
~10,000
Planned
South Asia
# BTS
CURRENT AND PLANNED GREEN POWER BTS
Operators in developing countries arealready planning to scale green powerdeployments
Based on interviews with operators
• Not a comprehensive dataset
• Anticipated and extrapolated futuredeployments up to 2012
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Page 5
Running the economic model shows that as load increases, the chance
of achieving an acceptable payback diminish rapidly
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
8 0 0
9 0 0
1 , 0
0 0
1 , 1
1 0
1 , 2
0 0
1 , 3
0 0
1 , 4
0 0
1 , 5
0 0
1 , 6
0 0
1 , 7
0 0
1 , 8
0 0
1 , 9
0 0
2 , 0
0 0
2 , 1
0 0
2 , 2
0 0
2 , 3
0 0
>5 years4-5 years
3-4 years
2-3 years
<2 years
DISTRIBUTION OF BTS-LOAD
Probability
BTS Load (W)
Payback Period
T o t a l
2.2%7.9%
12.3%
12.7%
More than 10% of sites expected to
payback within 3 years; more than35% expected to payback within 5
years
Source: Cairneagle analysis
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LOAD EFFECT ON IRR BY TECHNOLOGY
IRR
BTS Load (W)
12.3%
12.7%
Economic Summary by Technology Type
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900
Wind-Only
Hybrid
Solar-Only
Source: Cairneagle Analysis
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Page 7
Depending on the financial payback that operators require, the number
of green power BTS could reach almost 200k by 2012
0k
20k
40k
60k
80k
100k
New Build Replace
Assuming
5 year
payback
Assuming 3 year
payback
# GP-BTS
POTENTIAL OFF-GRID GREEN POWER BTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES BY 2012
* Note: Covers new build and replacements; off-grid onlySource: Interviews and Cairneagle Analysis using economic model and Monte Carlo analysis, GSMA
3 year
Payback
5 year
Payback% off-grid BTS sitesviable for greenenergy*
9% 30%
# green BTS by 2012 53k 176k
Reduced dieselconsumption / yr
1.1bn ltrs 3.5bn ltrs
Fuel savings / yr $1.3bn $4.2bn
CO2 emissionreductions / yr
2.8m T CO2 9.6m T CO2
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Page 8
Technology - Overview
Diesel: costs increasing; distribution expensive for remote sites
Wind: successful in certain locations, but need a secondary power sourceas back-up
Solar solutions are being successfully deployed in many locations
Proper site dimensioning and use of batteries are key to optimising bothcapital and operating costs
Other solutions, such as hydro, fuel cells and biofuels, will remain niche
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Page 9
Some Issues
What % of new and existing sites will be powered by renewable power?
Will renewable energy compliment grid electricity powered base stations?
What are the best technologies?
• Different power requirements
• Different weather conditions
• Future technologies
Operational issues: dimensioning, batteries, controller, diesel as back-up?
Barriers to take-up: future proofing, theft, capex, lack of expertise and knowledge...
Who are the best partners and suppliers?
Carbon credits?
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Green Power For Mobile
The research was carried out for the GSM Association which represents the interestsof the worldwide mobile communications industry
The GSMA have launched a Green Power for Mobile initiative to drive the adoption of
green power
• Aiding the mobile industry to deploy solar, wind, or sustainable biofuels technologies to 118,000 new and existing off-grid base stations in developing
countries by 2012 • www.gsmworld.com/greenpower
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Cairneagle Associates
Matt Cooksley
+44 (0) 7739 173721