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GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION TOWARDS VERY HIGH SHARES OF RENEWABLES:

LEARNINGS AND INSIGHTS

GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION TOWARDS VERY HIGH SHARES OF RENEWABLES:

LEARNINGS AND INSIGHTSChristian Breyer, D. Bogdanov, A. Aghahosseini, A. Gulagi, M. Child, A.S. Oyewo, U. Caldera, M. Fasihi, J. Farfan, K. Sadovskaia, A. Toktarova, S. Afanasyeva, O. Koskinen, A.A. Solomon, S. Khalili, E. Rantanen, L.N.S. Barbosa, M. Barasa, S. Horvath, A. Klickaplan, O. Peker, O. Efimova, N. Ghorbani, M. Ram, M. Görig, P. Greim, A. Nordling, D. Keiner, M. Khan, A. PolevaNeo-Carbon Energy, 9th Researchers’ SeminarLappeenranta, December 11-13, 2017

2 Global Energy Transition towards very high shares of REChristian Breyer [email protected] @ChristianOnRE

COP21 Agreement in Paris: Net Zero Emissions


Timeline of some key milestones

07/14 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17

Michael, Dmitrii, Mahdi started

1st 100% RE results presented for Northeast Asia at conference in Kyoto 1st 100% RE results

presented for Finland at conference in Turku

1st global view on RE-based LNG, PtLpresented at conferences

1st global 100% RE for 145 regions in full hourly resolution at conference and IoE online tool

1st global 100% RE Transition for 145 regions in full hourly resolution at conference and COP23 as report

Current status:• Our team published the most

journal articles on 100% RE for countries, regions

• Invitations to major conferences/ institutions

• Contacts to all major groups


Main suprises during last 3.5 years - 1Quote from Bill Gates

“We overestimate what can be done in a year and we underestimate what can be done in 5 years.”

Role of solar PV• We started with one generic PV component in the model (mix if rooftop and power plant) with fully

distorted results.• Today we have 5 PV components: prosumer (residential, commercial, industrial), plants (fixed tilted, single-

axis tracking), with high relevance of all 5 of them, in particular single-axis tracking; we are the only team having this detail in PV

• ET results indicate dominance of PV in global energy system: ~70% by 2050 is our result for global average

Pressure on wind energy• From the 2030s onwards wind energy will be under increasing pressure due to very high competitiveness

of PV and battery• Not much affected are regions with high seasonal variation (e.g. Europe)

Role of PtG/PtX technologies• Role for the power sector is very low: 1% of global demand by 2050 supplied by PtG-GtP for 100% RE• Role for the mobility and industrial sector is outstanding high: power-to-fuels (marine, aviation), power-to-

chemicals, power-to-steel• New demand sector will emerge: CO2 removal and deposition for net zero emissions society


Main suprises during last 3.5 years - 2Role of batteries• 90% of all storage (power sector) done by batteries• Key techno-economic characteristic of batteries is identical to PV: modularity, learning rate, growth rate• Battery electric vehicles will dominate the car fleet (LDV) and most likely MDV and maybe also HDV• Lithium based batteries are most important, however we do not have enough lithium• New found battery-to-PtG effect (by Dmitrii & Christian) is most interesting for 100% RE systems

100% RE community• Still small community, mainly located in Europe and Australia, and one relevant group in the US• Continuous severe attacks from RE deniers, mainly with nuclear and fossil-CCS background• Still no single article on 100% RE on Science and nature level, to be changed • Not much research is available for the entire energy system, in particular industry sector• Climate change researchers (IPCC) have not yet published a single (!) 100% RE scenario• Impact of our results is not yet that clear (by citations), however RG downloads are very high (found higher

Michael Grätzel, Martin Green)• AIST/ NREL/ Fraunhofer ISE invited us for their exclusive Terawatt joint action

(Conventional) energy community• Many fully ignore us (mainly oil & gas); Nuclear lobbyists run severe attacks against us (mainly in Finland)• IEA (director general, head of RE, head of WEO) put us on black list; others try to cooperate• IRENA suffers from being not allowed to talk on 100% RE• Greenpeace lost Sven Teske, so let’s see how they continue• IPCC community members intensify contacts to us• We are too far in the future for governments and companies, which is a major burden for financing


Energy Transition Modeling: Global

Key insights:• energy system transition model for 145 regions forming 92 countries• LCOE decline on energy system level driven by PV plus battery• beyond 2030 solar PV becomes more comeptitve than wind energy• solar PV plus battery finally runs the system more and more• solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 69% (!!) as least cost

source: Breyer Ch. et al., 2017. Solar Photovoltaics Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics, DOI: 10.1002/pip.2950


Energy Transition Modeling: Global - PV

Key insights:• 1.3% electricity share by 2015• Strong growth till 2030 would be possible• By 2050 solar PV could be the dominating source of electricity• Countries in the Sun Belt would be almost fully dominated by

solar PV, e.g. Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Central America• Regions of strong seasons and excellent wind show lower PV

values, as well as the few hydro power and geotherrmal regions• solar PV supply share in 2050 at about 69% (!!) as least cost


Energy Transition Modeling: Global - Wind

Key insights:• 4.2% electricity share by 2015• Strong growth till 2030 leads to a 32% electricity share• Regions of strong seasons and excellent wind resources

show higher wind supply shares• Excellent wind conditions in Argentina, South Africa,

Australia• Wind energy supply share in 2050 at about 18%


Energy Transition Modelling: Global

Key insights:Energy systems in the world can be classified into 4 major types: PV, wind, hydro, mixed systemsAll major regions in the world are different and have local special characteristics

Global Energy Transition towards very high shares of REChristian Breyer [email protected] @ChristianOnRE11

Storage Supply Shares in 2050

Key insights:Battery storage mainly plays a role in providing diurnal storage with around 31% of the total supplyGas storage mainly plays a role in providing seasonal storage with just 2% of total supply, thereof 1% of PtGProsumers play a significant role and hence a large portion of batteries can be observed in 2050, also with low costs of solar PV and batteries

Global Energy Transition towards very high shares of REChristian Breyer [email protected] @ChristianOnRE12

Losses (Curtailment, Storage, Grids) in 2050

Key insights:The total losses in a 100% RE based electricity system in 2050 are just around 16% of the total generationCurtailment has a share of 7.2%, storage contributes 4.0% and grid losses amount to 4.9%A RE based electricity system is significantly more efficient in comparison to the current system, where 58% of primary energy input is lost.


Total System Losses

Key insights:The current energy system shows very high primary energy to secondary energy lossesThe transition towards 100% renewable electricity substantially increases the overall system efficiency, which is also reflected by the cost decline of the total electricity system100% renewable electricity uses four main types of flexibility: resource complementarity, grids, storageand curtailment, whereas the latter is a low-cost measure due to the low cost of solar PV and windThe total losses are 16% of generation and including primary energy to secondary energy loss of bioenergy about 26% of the final electricity demand



Key insights:• Total LCOE by 2050 around 52 €/MWh (incl. generation,

storage, curtailment, some grid cost)• 60% ratio of primary generation cost to total LCOE• Total PV installed capacity around

• 22 TWp (ONLY for today’s power sector – this research)• 45 TWp (expected for the full energy system)


Role of solar PV and wind beyond power sector

Mobility:• Electric cars will be mainly based on electricity• Trucks will be based either on direct electricity or biofuels, indirect electricity (power-to-liquid)• Rail is already mainly based on electricity• Ships will be based on biofuels or indirect electricity (power-to-gas (LH2, LNG)/ -liquids)• Aviation will be based on biofuels or indirect electricity (power-to-gas (LH2)/ -liquids)Heat/Cooling• Very good chances for heat pumps for space heating and existing air conditioning• Higher temperatures will be based on direct electricity, bioenergy or indirect electricityIndustry• Cement: fuels to be substituted by biofuels, direct and direct electricity, remaining CO2 to be

utilized via CCU for power-to-hydrocarbons (gas, liquids, chemicals)• Steel: coal mainly substituted by indirect electricity based power-to-gas (H2)• Chemical industry: will be based on biomass and indirect electricity (power-to-chemicals)Desalination• Seawater reverse osmosis based on electricity is already today dominating

Biomass/ biofuels is limited in volume and not low-costSolar PV and wind energy is abundantly available and low-cost


RE Job Prospects

Key insights:A global 100% RE based electricity system has the potential to create 36 million jobs in 2050, compared to 19 million jobs in the 2015 electricity systemFossil and nuclear energy-related jobs can be easily substituted by RE-related onesSolar PV and battery storage will be prime job creators 2030 onwardsMore stable jobs will be available in operation and maintenanceThe total jobs per generated electricity will first increase due to strong investment needs and will stabilise towards 2050 comparable to the current level


CO2 Emissions Reduction

Key insights:GHG emissions can be reduced from about 11 GtCO2eq in 2015 to zero by 2050, while the total LCOE of the power system declines and more than 500 b€ worth of CO2eq is saved between 2020 to 2030The presented 100% RE scenario for the global power sector supports the accomplishment of goals set by the Paris AgreementWhat is even more important is the observation that a deep decarbonisation of 95% to 0.57 GtCO2eq by 2035 and 98% to 0.24 GtCO2eq by 2040 is possible, which is well before 2050, while gradually lowering the energy system LCOEThe results also indicate that a 100% RE based energy system is much more efficient in comparison to the current energy system


Total System Losses/ Net Energy Analyses

Key insights:The current energy system shows very high primary energy to secondary energy lossesThe transition towards 100% renewable electricity substantially increases the overall system efficiency, which is also reflected by the cost decline of the total electricity systemKey argument of RE opponents is that energy needed to build RE and storage would be so huge that the transition would be almost impossible, or on the price of massive additional use of fossil fuelThis key argument is wrong as shown in the diagram.Largest energy loss/investment: PE-to-SE loss (bioenergy), grid losses, storage losses, CED (gen, storage)


Lithium – a potentially limiting raw material

Key insights:No consensus on the Lithium availabilityMatching various supply and demand scenarios almost always leads to supply shortage (total resource in 2060s/2070s, annual supply much earlier)Circular economy is a must for LithiumLithium based batteries can carry the energy transition far, but not fullyAlternative battery concepts needed, such on Aluminium or Magnesium basis


PV Capacity Expectations in Major Reports

LUT E[R] AE[R] BNEF ITRPV (m, h) REmap Roadmap 2DS hi-Ren NPS 450[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW]

2030 6980 2839 3725 1799 4050 4600 2921 1721 1927 949 12782040 13810 4988 6678 3687 6440 8500 - 3199 3277 1405 21082050 21960 6745 9295 - 6850 9100 6348 - - - -

source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA

Key insights:• Greenpeace and BNEF had been close to real numbers in

the past 10 years leading reports show 2-3 times highernumbers than IEA WEO for 2030 and 2040

• IEA WEO is lagging behind due to assuming wrong growth• LUT results are far beyond the major reports

sources: Breyer Ch., 2016. Comments on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, WEC Finland's breakfast meeting: IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, Helsinki, November 23Metayer et al., 2015

Solar PV Demand Global Energy Transition – Power SectorChristian Breyer [email protected] @ChristianOnRE21

Summary• Existing RE technologies can generate sufficient energy to cover all electricity

demand globally for the year 2050• Total LCOE in global average are around 52 €/MWh for 100% RE in 2050 (incl.

curtailment, storage and some grid cost) – lower than today• Share of solar PV for total electricity supply can reach 69% in global average by 2050• PV demand of 22 TWp (power sector) and 45 TWp (all sectors) by 2050• Solar PV and batteries are the most relevant energy technologies for the transition• Next steps: RE-based mobility, heat, fuels, chemicals, clean water• Energy system models have to be drastically improved in methodology and quality• Much additional research can be done based on proper energy transition results,

such as CO2eq emissions, jobs, net energy analyses, material demand, etc.


Publications on 100% RE transitionAltogether it had been possible to get 11 journal articles and in addition 6 conference papers published on 100% RE transition topics during NCE.

Journals

• Breyer Ch., Bogdanov D., Aghahosseini A., Gulagi A., Child M., Oyewo A.S., Farfan J., Sadovskaia K., Vainikka P., 2017. Solar Photovoltaics Demand for the Global Energy Transition in the Power Sector, Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, in press, DOI: 10.1002/pip.2950; https://goo.gl/zsdFZi

• Gulagi A., Bogdanov D., Breyer Ch., 2017. The Role of Storage Technologies in Energy Transition Pathways Towards Achieving a Fully Sustainable Energy System for India, Journal on Energy Storage, published online November 26, in press, DOI: 10.1016/j.est.2017.11.012; http://bit.ly/2hXWyWb

• Child M., Bogdanov D., Breyer Ch., Fell H.-J., 2017. Role of storage technologies for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Ukraine, Energy Procedia, 135, 410-423, DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.513; http://bit.ly/2imPouf

• Gulagi A., Bogdanov D., Breyer Ch., 2017. The Demand for Storage Technologies in Energy Transition Pathways Towards 100% Renewable Energy for India, Energy Procedia, 135, 37-50, DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.485; http://bit.ly/2vSldF1

• Ghorbani N., Aghahosseini A., Breyer Ch., 2017. Transition to a 100% renewable energy system and the role of storage technologies: A casestudy for Iran, Energy Procedia, 135, 23-36, DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.484; http://bit.ly/2hwrNb8

• Caldera U. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Impact of Battery and Water Storage on the Transition to an Integrated 100% Renewable Energy Power System for Saudi Arabia, Energy Procedia, 135, 126-142, DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.09.496; http://bit.ly/2zacnTA

• Kilickaplan A., Bogdanov D., Peker O., Caldera U., Aghahosseini A., Breyer Ch., 2017. An Energy Transition Pathway for Turkey to Achieve 100% Renewable Energy Powered Electricity, Desalination and Non-energetic Industrial Gas Demand Sectors by 2050, Solar Energy, 158, 218-235, DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2017.09.030; http://bit.ly/2imdkhB

• Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Aging of European Power Plant Infrastructure as an Opportunity to evolve towards Sustainability, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 42, 18081-18091, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2016.12.138; http://bit.ly/2oDtGmU


Publications on 100% RE transitionJournals - continuation

• Farfan J. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Structural changes of global power generation capacity towards sustainability and the risk of stranded investments supported by a sustainability indicator, Journal of Cleaner Production, 141, 370-384, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.068; http://bit.ly/2k4Jhhq

• Breyer Ch., Heinonen S., Ruotsalainen J., 2017. New Consciousness: A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 7-15, DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029; http://bit.ly/2iSBpQX

• Koskinen O. and Breyer Ch., 2016. Energy Storage in Global and Transcontinental Energy Scenarios: A Critical Review, Energy Procedia, 99,53-63, DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2016.10.097; http://bit.ly/2uKTsf6

Conferences

• Keiner D. and Breyer Ch., 2017. Modelling of PV Prosumers using a stationary battery, heat pump, thermal energy storage and electric vehicle for optimizing self-consumption ratio and total cost of energy, 33rd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Amsterdam, September 25-29; http://bit.ly/2huro8N

• Gulagi A., Ram M., Breyer Ch., 2017. Solar-Wind Complementarity with Optimal Storage and Transmission in Mitigating the Monsoon Effect in Achieving a Fully Sustainable Electricity System for India, 1st International Conference on Large-Scale Grid Integration of Renewable Energy in India, New Delhi, September 6-8; http://bit.ly/2xcwVdP

• Ram M., Gulagi A., Keiner D., Breyer Ch., 2017. Role of solar PV prosumers in enabling the energy transition towards a fully renewables based power system for India, 1st International Conference on Large-Scale Grid Integration of Renewable Energy in India, New Delhi, September 6-8; http://bit.ly/2xaP2Ab

• Bogdanov D., Toktarova A., Breyer Ch., 2017. Transition Towards 100% Renewable Energy system by 2050 for Kazakhstan, Astana Economic Forum, Astana, June 15-16; http://bit.ly/2s4hq40

• Oyewo A.S., Aghahosseini A, Breyer Ch., 2017. Assessment of energy storage technologies in transition to a 100% renewable energy system for Nigeria, 11th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES 2017), Düsseldorf, March 14-16; http://bit.ly/2mzo9gX

• Caldera U., Bogdanov D., Afanasyeva S., Breyer Ch., 2016. Integration of reverse osmosis seawater desalination in the power sector, based on PV and wind energy, for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June 20-24, DOI: 10.4229/32ndEUPVSEC2016-6AV.4.8; http://bit.ly/2iVKP97

Thank you for your attention …… and to the team!

The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14.

all publications at: www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyernew publications also announced via Twitter: @ChristianOnRE

global energy transition towards very high shares … › wp-content › uploads › 2016 › 02 ›...

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