global economics update - june 2015

....Laird Research - Economics

June 11, 2015

Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

US Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Global Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Where we are now

Welcome to the Laird Report. We present a selection economic datafrom around the world to help figure where we are today.

It looks like inflation is coming back, at least in the US. More im-portantly, wage inflation is coming back - note the recent news articlesabout Walmart giving wage hikes etc. Quit rates and job openningsin the US are both up and the unemployment rate continues to drop.Participation rates – the portion of the population working or lookingfor work – are still at historic lows but holding steady, making year overyear comparisons more appropriate.

US wages grew 2.3% year over year. This is a big deal because oneof the major items holding down inflation was excess labour supply - itshard to ask for a raise when you can be easily replaced with lower costworkers. That seems to have changed. The Employment Cost Indexis showing an uptick indicating that those annecdotal data points arepart of a larger trend.

The other thing to consider is capacity utilization rates - basically,how close businesses are to running out of the ability to make more with

the fixed assets they have. That rate has been slowly climbing over thepast three years, but has dropped a bit (note as well that GDP for Q1in the US was hit by record low temperatures which may explain partof that).

There’s a cascade effect that is expected: higher wages and busi-nesses close to capacity translate into higher prices - but this is poten-tially masked by lower oil prices and global commodity prices (thanksfor slowing down for us China!). You can look at the inflation charts tosee that overall CPI crashed, but if you exclude food and oil, it’s hum-ming along nicely at about 2% - the consensus rate for the“appropriate”amount of inflation.

Further, higher wages also translate into more disposible income,more spending and a hotter economy - both of those things seem to behappening now. So, we get a period of low prices, good domestic econ-omy (US PMI is at highs right now), growing wages and low interestrates.

Employment Cost IndexYo

Y %

Cha

nge

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

median: 2.462015 Q1: 2.68

Capacity Utilization

% o

f Max

Cap

acity

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

7075

8085

median: 80.492015 Q1: 78.88

This is why we are seeing so many articles about the US Fed raisinginterest rates. The Fed’s job is to get ahead of inflation - there seem tobe more factors pointing to inflation coming than away from it.

The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate Of Unemployment (NAIRU) isthe Fed’s best guess at the level of unemployment which doesn’t causeinflation to rise. Their target was recently dropped from 5.3% to 5.1%- they seem nervous about actually raising rates and uncertain aboutwhether the recovery is sturdy enough to withstand normal interestrates again. Thus they keep moving the target to give themselves morewiggle room. See also their inflation targets.

Once rates go up, then in theory the US dollar is more expensive,which makes exports more expensive (and imports cheaper) and thecost of capital will go up, which cools investment – negative factors forthe US. The rest of the world will be happy to see that happen - theUS consumer’s appetite for imported goodies has bailed out the globaleconomy before – it is still the world’s biggest economy.

We are also seeing lots of global currency games as variouseconomies try to devalue their currencies against one another to boosttheir economies. I’m looking at you Japan. And you too Germany -how such a strong export economy gets away with a depressed currencyis beyond me. I guess that’s why the rest of Europe is there [waves to

Greece and Spain].

Unfortunately, currency manipulation is a zero sum game so thatonly works if one of their trading partners is willing to see their currencyappreciate. The net result of this game would be a much stronger USdollar against the asian currencies. Again, the whole world is watchingthe US Fed because of all the ripple effects on currencies, imports etc.that happen as a result.

We are seeing slower growth from China, but perhaps the biggestunknown is the EU. Their Quantitative Easing (QE) program is in placewhich should increase the money supply and simultaneously lower bondyields (more money in the system and it costs less to borrow = a boostfor the Eurozone economy). However, a Greece debt default and Eu-rozone exit is a big question mark, more because of the uncertainty itcreates than any specific impact - Greece is a low single digit percentageof the Eurozone economy.

More importantly, we need to see that inflation is returning to theEurozone - they are currently deflating, in part from a sputtering econ-omy and in part from lower crude prices. I’m not sure the impact ofsaber rattling from Putin on Europe - it actually seems to be nothing,though war is a consistent destroyer of value. Employment is improvingthere and the business outlook is happier - but there is still an enormous

www.lairdresearch.com June 11, 2015

amount of risk in the European economy.An observation: note that much of the discussion of government in-

tervention is actually done through central banks and monetary policy- literally trillions of dollars (and Euros) of assets are being bought andeventually sold through extraordinary measures like QE. And this is af-ter interest rates have been basically dropped to zero. There was a timewhen monetary policy was paired with fiscal policy - the governmentwould run a deficit and spend on some project or another and monetarypolicy would match it. It is historically odd that major economies havetossed aside all fiscal levers in favour of monetary strategies.

Note that the issue with Greece is all about the appropriate levelof austerity and restructuring that needs to happen - at the same timetheir central bank is engaging in a huge round of asset buying and rate

cutting to try to get their economies going again. Those monetary pol-icy battles were fought and lost in Ireland, Spain and Portugal already(not quite sure what the Italians are doing). Mark the moment: thepast 5 years have been a global science fair project to figure out theabsolute limits of monetary policy in a recession.

Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECDrecession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the lastavailable value is listed, along with the median value (measured fromas much of the data series as is available).

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Laird Research, June 11, 2015


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Indicators for US Economy

Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before theeconomy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictorsof the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index whichsummarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and

vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-mit indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand inthe system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling abouttheir own financial situation and the economy in general). Red dotsare points where a new trend has started.

Leading Index for the US

Inde

x: E

st. 6

mon

th g

row

th

−3

−1

01

23

median: 1.38Apr 2015: 1.12

Growth

Contraction

Initial Unemployment Claims

1000

's o

f Cla

ims

per

Wee

k

200

400

600 median: 350.25

Jun 2015: 278.75

Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked

Hou

rs

3940

4142

4344 median: 40.60

May 2015: 41.80

ISM Manfacturing − PMI

Inde

x: S

tead

y S

tate

= 5

0

3040

5060

70 median: 53.40May 2015: 52.80

expanding economy

contracting economy

Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable GoodsB

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

150

200

250

300

median: 183.82Apr 2015: 234.39

Index of Truck Tonnage

Truc

k To

nnag

e In

dex

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100

120

median: 112.70Mar 2015: 134.80

Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)

Per

cent

cha

nge

(3 m

onth

s)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−15

−5

05

10

median: 1.29Apr 2015: −3.81

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Inde

x V

alue

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−4

−2

02

median: 0.075Apr 2015: −0.15

U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

Inde

x 19

66 Q

1 =

100

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

5070

9011

0

median: 88.40May 2015: 90.70


Global Financial Markets

Global Stock Market Returns

Country Index Name Close Date CurrentValue

WeeklyChange

MonthlyChange

3 monthChange

YearlyChange

Corr toS&P500

Corr toTSX

North AmericaUSA S&P 500 Jun 11 2,108.9 0.6% s 0.2% s 3.4% s 8.5% s 1.00 0.70USA NASDAQ Composite Jun 11 5,082.5 0.5% s 1.8% s 4.8% s 17.3% s 0.93 0.65USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Jun 11 22,310.0 0.7% s 0.4% s 3.3% s 8.2% s 1.00 0.71Canada S&P TSX Jun 11 14,830.9 -1.3% t -2.1% t 0.6% s -0.4% t 0.70 1.00Europe and RussiaFrance CAC 40 Jun 11 4,971.4 -0.3% t -1.1% t -0.5% t 9.1% s 0.48 0.48Germany DAX Jun 11 11,332.8 -0.1% t -2.9% t -4.0% t 13.9% s 0.46 0.39United Kingdom FTSE Jun 11 6,846.7 -0.2% t -2.6% t 1.9% s 0.1% s 0.57 0.53Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Jun 11 18.4 4.1% s -9.3% t 11.4% s -27.9% t 0.39 0.49AsiaTaiwan TSEC weighted index Jun 11 9,302.5 -0.5% t -3.7% t -2.3% t 0.8% s 0.13 0.09China Shanghai Composite Index Jun 05 5,023.1 2.3% s 16.9% s 54.6% s 146.1% s 0.03 -0.03Japan NIKKEI 225 Jun 11 20,383.0 -0.5% t 3.9% s 8.9% s 35.3% s -0.10 -0.07Hong Kong Hang Seng Jun 11 26,907.8 -2.3% t -2.9% t 13.4% s 15.7% s 0.08 0.12Korea Kospi Jun 11 2,056.6 -0.8% t -1.9% t 3.8% s 2.1% s -0.20 -0.08South Asia and AustrailiaIndia Bombay Stock Exchange Jun 11 26,371.0 -1.7% t -4.1% t -8.0% t 3.5% s 0.21 0.23Indonesia Jakarta Jun 11 4,928.8 -3.3% t -4.7% t -9.1% t -0.9% t -0.01 0.04Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Jun 11 1,734.8 -0.4% t -3.9% t -2.4% t -7.6% t 0.03 0.14Australia All Ordinaries Jun 11 5,562.6 0.9% s -1.2% t -3.5% t 2.4% s 0.03 0.10New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Jun 11 5,858.4 -0.1% t 1.9% s -0.1% t 13.1% s -0.27 -0.18South AmericaBrasil IBOVESPA Jun 11 53,689.0 1.4% s -6.1% t 9.8% s -2.6% t 0.42 0.46Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Jun 11 11,363.9 1.0% s -6.1% t 12.2% s 40.7% s 0.35 0.42Mexico Bolsa index Jun 11 44,624.7 0.1% s -1.2% t 3.2% s 3.9% s 0.56 0.44MENA and AfricaEgypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Jun 11 51.8 -2.9% t -3.1% t -11.6% t -22.7% t 0.18 0.26(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Jun 11 27.5 -1.5% t -1.4% t 2.9% s -13.0% t 0.33 0.37South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Jun 11 63.6 2.9% s -6.5% t -0.5% t -5.5% t 0.61 0.51(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Jun 11 24.9 -0.8% t -5.6% t 0.6% s -22.7% t 0.41 0.39CommoditiesUSD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Jun 08 $58.1 -3.5% t -2.1% t 16.4% s -44.7% t 0.08 0.21USD Gold LME Spot Jun 11 $1,180.5 -0.2% t -0.4% t 1.9% s -6.5% t 0.06 0.14

Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.


S&P 500 Composite Index

The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best singlegauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-tion level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. Wepresent two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which

reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-ings over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecastedearnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.

S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)

Per

cent

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

02468

101214

02468101214

Per

cent

Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q1/15: 10.7%Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q1/15: 8.6%

S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

−5.00 0.00 5.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00

−5.00 0.00 5.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00

Tech BubbleJapanese Asset Bubble

House BubbleAsian Financial Crisis

US Financial Crisis

Eurozone crisis

Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II

Gulf WarSavings and Loans Crisis

High Inflation Period

Afganistan/Iraq WarVietnam War

Reported EarningsOperating Earnings

Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mul

tiple

Mul

tiple

12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Jun = 21.3)10−year CAPE ( median = 19.5, Jun = 26.1)


S&P 500 Composite Distributions

This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-panies. The area of each box is proportional to the company’s marketcap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price

over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according totheir industry group.

AAPL+0.14%

MSFT−4.6%

GOOG−0.61%

FB+3.6%

ORCL−0.2%

V+5.9%

IBM−2.1%

INTC−4%

CSCO−0.93%

QCOM

MA+3.6%

EBAY

ACN

HPQ

TXN

CRM

NFLX

ADBE

ADP

CTSH

YHOO

INTU TEL

MU

ADI

EA

ADS

FIS

STX

XRX

WU

BRK−A−1.8%

WFC+4.5%

JPM+7.7%

BAC+8.6%

C+6.5%

GS

AIG AXP

USB MS

MET

BLK

SPG

PNC

BK

COF

PRU

AMT

ACE CME

STT PSA

TRV

MMC

BEN

BBT

MHFI

ICE ALL

CCI

AFL

DFS

HCN GGP

STI

CB

BXP

VNO

IVZ

MTB

WY

PGR

L

RF

XLO

JNJ−0.89%

PFE+2%

GILD+13%

MRK−1.6%

AMGN−1.5%

ACT+4.2%

UNH+5.4%

BMY+1.8%

ABBV+5.8%

MDT+0.82%

BIIB LLY

CELG ABT

ESRX MCK

TMO REGN

AET BAX

SYK MYL

CI

HCA

ALXN

HUM

VRTX

CAH

BDX

PRGO

ZTS

ZMH

ISRG

MNK

AUHS

LH

AMZN+2.4%

DIS+0.09%

CMCSA+0.6%

HD+1.6%

MCD−2.3%

NKE+3.1%

SBUX+4.7%

TWX+1.2%

FOXA LOW

PCLN F

GM

TGT

TWC+14%

DTV

TJX YUM CCL

JCI

CBS

VIAB

DLPH

LB

M DG

ORLY MAR

ROST

CMG

OMC

UA

HOT

JWN

GPC HBI

TIF RL

SNIIPG

GE+0.73%

UTX

MMM+1.4%

BA

UPS UNP

HON

DHR

LMTCAT

FDX

GD

EMR

ITW

CSX

DAL

RTN

DE

LUV

WM

IR

ROP

APH

TYC

ROK PH

AME

LLL

URI

WMT−6.6%

PG−1.1%

KO−2%

PEP−1.5%

PM−1.4%

CVS+2.2%

MO WBA

MDLZ

COST

CL

KMB RAI

KR

EL

GIS

ADM

LO

STZ

K

MJN

CAG

HRL

CPB

XOM−4.2%

CVX−7.3%

SLB−2.5%

KMI−7.8%

COPOXY−2%

EOG APC

PSX

HAL

BHI

DVN

PXD

SE

APA

HES NBL

DD

DOW

MON

LYB

PX

ECL

APD

SHWIP

FCX

SIAL NUE

CFAAVMC

DUK

NEE

D

SO EIX ED

ES

NI FE

VZ−5.3%

T+1.3%

Information Technology

Financials

Health Care

Consumer Discretionary

Industrials

ConsumerStaples

Energy Materials

Utilities

TelecommunicationsServices

<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%

% Change in Price from May 1, 2015 to Jun 11, 2015

Average Median Median MedianSector Change P/Sales P/Book P/EHealth Care 3.8% s 3.7 4.1 27.4Financials 3.1% s 3.2 1.6 18.7Consumer Discretionary 0.5% s 1.8 4.3 21.1Information Technology 0.4% s 3.6 4.6 22.1Industrials -0.1% t 1.6 3.7 19.5

Average Median Median MedianSector Change P/Sales P/Book P/EMaterials -1.4% t 1.6 4.4 24.5Consumer Staples -1.6% t 2.3 6.0 25.2Telecommunications Services -2.6% t 1.4 2.1 31.4Utilities -4.3% t 1.5 1.6 17.1Energy -6.7% t 1.7 1.6 14.3


US Equity Valuations

A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the marketvalue of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacementcost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famouslyfollows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.

We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market hasvaluations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-

timated earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA ratedsecurities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under-standing the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate ademand for greater returns for the same price and show the level ofrisk-aversion in the market.

Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Buying assets at a discount

Paying up for growth

Tobin Q (median = 0.76, Mar = 1.06)S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.33, Mar = 1.80)

Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, May = 4.7%)Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, May = 2.8%)


US Mutual Fund Flows

Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutualfunds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual FundInvesting” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as

it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investorsentering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’sfrom mutual funds.

US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds

US

$ bi

llion

s (m

onth

ly)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

−40

−20

020

40

Domestic EquityWorld EquityTaxable BondsMunicipal Bonds

US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds

US

$ bi

llion

s (M

onth

ly)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

−60

−40

−20

020

4060

Flows to EquityFlows to BondsNet Market Flows


US Key Interest Rates

Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financialsystem. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates ongovernment bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, thenthe fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negativespreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.

Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an

inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just mostof the time).

For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vsFedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to anaversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-ing.

US Treasury Yield Curves

For

war

d In

stan

tane

ous

Rat

es (

%)

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Jun 10, 2015 (Today)May 11, 2015 (1 mo ago)Mar 10, 2015 (3 mo ago)10 Jun 2014 (1 yr ago)

3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%10 Yr Treasury3 Mo TreasurySpread

AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Per

cent

AAABAA

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

median: 91.00Jun 2015: 91.00

0100200300

0100200300

Spr

ead

(bps

)

LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Per

cent

3 mos t−billLIBOR

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

median: 36.53Jun 2015: 25.89

0100200300

0100200300

Spr

ead

(bps

)


US Inflation

Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectationsto approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the ConsumerPrice Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)index.

In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly likeFood and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called

Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflectsthe entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.

Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-pectations by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct animputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.

Consumer Price Index

Per

cent

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

−1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

−1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

US Inflation Rate YoY% (Apr = −0.11%)US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Apr = 1.8%)

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Per

cent

(Ye

ar o

ver

Year

)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−1

01

23

45

6

PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Apr = 0.12%)PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Apr = 1.2%)

5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate

Per

cent

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

−1

01

23

45

6

5 year forward Inflation ExpectationActual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure)


QE Taper Tracker

The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-vide monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in aseries of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down longterm rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-gage backed securites and other debt from banks.

The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up theirprice, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would bedecreased (yield ≈ coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.

In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates withoutincreasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.

The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-ing enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced inDec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven byseeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being lessthan 6.5%. In Oct 2014, they announced the end of purchases.

QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury & Mortgage Backed Securities)

Trill

ions

0.00.51.01.52.02.5

0.00.51.01.52.02.5

QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 TaperTreasuries

Mortgage Backed Securities

Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)

Bill

ions

−100−50

050

100150200

−100−50050100150200

Month to date Jun 10: $0.2

Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets

Per

cent

02468

10

0246810

Target Unemployment 6.5%Target Inflation 2%

U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields

Per

cent

012345

012345

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Short Term Rates:Once at zero, Fed moved to QE

Long Term Rates:Moving up in anticipation of Taper?


Exchange Rates

10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

0.62

0.71

0.81

0.90

1.00

1.09

US

A /

CA

D

0.55

0.61

0.66

0.72

0.77

0.82

Eur

o / C

AD

59.

16 7

4.71

90.

2610

5.81

121.

3613

6.91

Japa

n / C

AD

0.38

0.44

0.49

0.55

0.61

0.67

U.K

. / C

AD

0.59

0.99

1.39

1.79

2.19

2.58

Bra

zil /

CA

D

CAD Appreciating

CAD Depreciating

Change in F/X: May 1 2015 to Jun 5 2015(Trade Weighted Currency Index of USD Trading Partners)

−3.0%

−1.5%

1.5%

3.0%

Euro−0.7%

UK−2.3%

Japan 2.9%

South Korea 2.2%

China 0.3%

India−1.3%

Brazil 3.3%

Mexico 1.9%

Canada 0.9%

USA 1.5%

Country vs. Average

AppreciatingDepreciating

% Change over 3 months vs. Canada

<−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% >10.0%

CAD depreciatingCAD appreciating

ARG−5.7%

AUS−1.8%

BRA−1.7%

CHN−2.2%

IND−5.0%

RUS 8.7%

USA−2.8%

EUR2.0%

JPY−3.8%

KRW0.0%

MXN−2.6%

ZAR−4.1%


US Banking Indicators

The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the healthof the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in theform of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-erbating factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the

Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the differencebetween what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paidby creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan lossreserves and actual deliquency rates).

US Banks Net Interest Margin

Per

cent

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

median: 3.942015 Q1: 2.95

Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs

010

030

050

0

median: 55.62Jun 2015: 226.20

Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B

Per

cent

05

1015

median: 12.822015 Q1: 9.50

Consumer Credit Outstanding

% Y

early

Cha

nge

−5

05

1015

20

median: 7.62Apr 2015: 6.63

Total Business Loans%

Yea

rly C

hang

e

−20

010

20median: 8.57Apr 2015: 12.10

US Nonperforming Loans

Per

cent

12

34

5

median: 2.262015 Q1: 1.83

St. Louis Financial Stress Index

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

02

46

median: 0.069Jun 2015: −1.03

Commercial Paper Outstanding

Trill

ions

of D

olla

rs

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

median: 1.34Jun 2015: 0.97

Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate

Per

cent

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

24

68

10

median: 2.312015 Q1: 6.14


US Employment Indicators

Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator ofcurrent labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth ishighly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changesare another way to track the change in unemployment rate.

Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are inthe labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure

is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed ornot) - this is the Participation Rate.

The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by lookingat the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy-ment occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.

Unemployment Rate

Per

cent

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

median: 6.20May 2015: 5.504

56789

1011

4567891011

Per

cent

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)

Unemployment Rate (%)

Job

Ope

ning

s (%

tota

l Em

ploy

men

t)

Dec 2000 − Dec 2008Jan 2009 − Mar 2015Apr 2015

Participation Rate

Per

cent

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

6364

6566

67

median: 66.00May 2015: 62.90

Total Nonfarm Payroll Change

Mon

thly

Cha

nge

(000

s)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−50

00

500

median: 164.00May 2015: 280.00


There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ-ment. The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want afull-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary helpdemand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack.

The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev-els over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay.Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobsis generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery.

Median Duration of Unemployment

Wee

ks

510

1520

25 median: 8.70May 2015: 11.60

(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached

Per

cent

810

1214

16

median: 9.70May 2015: 10.80

4−week moving average of Initial Claims

Jan

1995

= 1

00

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

5010

015

020

0

median: 107.69Jun 2015: 85.70

Unemployed over 27 weeks

Mill

ions

of P

erso

ns

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

01

23

45

67

median: 0.79May 2015: 2.50

Services: Temp Help

Mill

ions

of P

erso

ns

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.5

2.0

2.5

median: 2.25May 2015: 2.90

0 200 400 600

15

20

25

30

35

40

Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers)

Ave

rage

wag

es (

$/ho

ur)

Private Industry Employment Change (May 2014 − May 2015)

ConstructionDurable Goods

Education

Financial Activities

Health Services

Information

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacturing

Mining and Logging

Nondurable GoodsOther Services

Professional &Business Services

Retail Trade

Transportation

Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Circle size relative to total employees in industry


US Business Activity Indicators

Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-manufacturing activity. We are focusing on forward looking business

indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of thecurrent business environment.

Manufacturing Sector: Real Output

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

−10

010

20

median: 6.222015 Q1: 9.12

ISM Manufacturing − PMI

Inde

x

3040

5060

70

May 2015: 52.80

manufac. expanding

manufac. contracting

ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index

Inde

x

3040

5060

7080 May 2015: 55.80

Increase in new orders

Decrease in new orders

Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods

Bill

ions

of D

olla

rs

4050

6070

median: 57.72Apr 2015: 68.33

Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing

Hou

rs

3940

4142

43

median: 41.10May 2015: 41.80

Industrial Production: Manufacturing

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

−15

−5

05

10

median: 3.32Apr 2015: 2.56

Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio

Rat

io

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

median: 1.36Apr 2015: 1.36

Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders & Inventory

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−0.

50.

00.

5 Apr 2015: 0.00Above ave growth

Below ave growth

ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

3545

5565

May 2015: 59.50

Growth

Contraction


US Consumption Indicators

Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of thestrength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-

tations about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of newpurchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.

U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

Inde

x 19

66 Q

1 =

100

5060

7080

9011

0

median: 88.40May 2015: 90.70

Consumer Loans (All banks)

YoY

% C

hang

e

−10

010

2030

40

median: 7.71Apr 2015: 4.63

AccountingChange

Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans

Per

cent

2.0

3.0

4.0

median: 3.472015 Q1: 2.00

New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods

YoY

% C

hang

e

−20

020

median: 4.08Apr 2015: 6.06

New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods

YoY

% C

hang

e

−20

010

20

median: 4.24Apr 2015: −12.98

Personal Consumption & Housing Index

Inde

x

−0.

40.

00.

20.

4

median: 0.02Apr 2015: −0.06above ave growth

below ave growth

Light Cars and Trucks Sales

Mill

ions

of U

nits

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1012

1416

1820

22

median: 14.80May 2015: 17.71

Personal Saving Rate

Per

cent

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

24

68

10

median: 5.60Apr 2015: 5.60

Real Retail and Food Services Sales

YoY

% C

hang

e

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−10

−5

05

median: 2.51Apr 2015: 1.63


US Housing

Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-ever a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Sincepersonal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-ues directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicatorin the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment

was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last fewrecessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing pricesand especially indicators which show the current state of the housingmarket.

15 20 25 30 35

150

200

250

300

Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)

New

Hom

e P

rice

(000

's)

Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)

Apr 2015

r2 : 89.4%Range: Jan 1959 − Apr 2015Blue dots > +5% change in next yearRed dots < −5% change in next year

New Housing Units Permits Authorized

Mill

ions

of U

nits

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

median: 1.35Apr 2015: 1.14

New Home Median Sale Price

Sal

e P

rice

$000

's

100

150

200

250

300

Apr 2015: 297.30

Homeowner's Equity Level

Per

cent

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

4050

6070

80 median: 66.472015 Q1: 55.60

New Homes: Median Months on the Market

Mon

ths

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

46

810

1214 median: 5.00

Apr 2015: 4.00

US Monthly Supply of Homes

Mon

ths

Sup

ply

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

46

810

12 median: 5.90Apr 2015: 4.80


US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index

The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly surveyon house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-ates a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 topresent. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking atthe change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.

The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are

weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the startof the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while thebackground colours are interpolated from these points using a loesssmoother.

Change from 2007 Peak − Q1 2015

−50%

−40%

−30%

−20%

−10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Today's Home Prices

Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak

Fre

quen

cy

−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%

Year over Year Change − Q1 2015

−10%

−8%

−6%

−4%

−2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

YoY Change in this quarter

YoY Percent Change

Fre

quen

cy

−15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15%


Global Housing

The Bank for International Settlements has begun collecting globalhousing indicies, which are useful for showing what has been happeningwith global house prices. Note that these are not all the same data set -

each country measures housing prices in slightly different ways, so theyare only broadly comparable. Black lines are the data series, blue barson the right axis show the year over year percent change.

Brazil − Metro All Dwellings

Q1

2011

= 1

00

6080

100

140 Jan 2015: 148.01

Chile − All Dwellings

Dec 2013: 127.12

Peru (Lima) − All Dwellings

Dec 2014: 177.50

−40

020

40

Mexico − All Dwellings

Q1

2011

= 1

00

6080

100

140 Dec 2014: 118.60

China (Beijing) − All Dwellings

Mar 2015: 119.13

Hong Kong − Residential Prices

Feb 2015: 163.06

−40

020

40

Indonesia − Major Cities housing

Q1

2011

= 1

00

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

6080

100

140 Dec 2014: 130.00

India − Major Cities housing

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dec 2014: 185.55

Singapore − All Dwellings

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Mar 2015: 102.25

−40

020

40


Philippines (Manila) − FlatsQ

1 20

11 =

100

6080

120

Dec 2014: 139.96

Japan − All Dwellings

Dec 2014: 102.50

Australia − All Dwellings

Dec 2014: 117.14

−40

020

40

New Zealand − All Dwellings Big Cities

Q1

2011

= 1

00

6080

120

Dec 2014: 134.35

Turkey − All Dwellings

Feb 2015: 167.95

South Africa − Residential

Apr 2015: 108.62

−40

020

40

Israel − All Dwellings

Q1

2011

= 1

00

6080

120

Jan 2015: 125.57

Korea − All Dwellings

Mar 2015: 109.77

Russia − All Dwellings (Urban)

Dec 2014: 125.83

−40

020

40

Euro zone − All Dwellings

Q1

2011

= 1

00

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

6080

120

Dec 2014: 96.99

Canada − New Houses

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Feb 2015: 107.87

US − New Single Family Houses

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dec 2014: 127.21

−40

020

40


Global Business Indicators

Global Manufacturing PMI Reports

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflectingpurchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-ing of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a numberover 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests

a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger thechange over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-erage of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands toshow a global average.

Global M−PMI − May 2015

<40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 >60.0

Steady ExpandingContracting

Eurozone52.5

Global PMI51.2

TWN49.3MEX

53.3

KOR47.8

JPN50.9

VNM54.8

IDN47.1

ZAF50.1

AUS52.3

BRA45.9

CAN49.8

CHN49.2

IND52.6

RUS47.6

SAU57.0

USA54.0

Global M−PMI Monthly Change

<−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0

PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating

Eurozone0.5

Global PMI0.2

TWN0.1MEX

−0.5

KOR−1.0

JPN1.0

VNM1.3

IDN0.4

ZAF−1.4

AUS 4.3

BRA−0.1

CAN 0.8

CHN 0.3

IND 1.3

RUS−1.3

SAU−1.3

USA−0.1

Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

3040

5060

70

3040

5060

70

Business Conditions Contracting

Business Conditions Expanding


Global Manufacturing PMI Chart

This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we lookat all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch theirevolution over time.

Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) whilegreen numbers indicate expansion.

May

13

Jun

13

Jul 1

3

Aug

13

Sep

13

Oct

13

Nov

13

Dec

13

Jan

14

Feb

14

Mar

14

Apr

14

May

14

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug

14

Sep

14

Oct

14

Nov

14

Dec

14

Jan

15

Feb

15

Mar

15

Apr

15

May

15

Australia

India

Indonesia

Viet Nam

Taiwan

China

Korea

Japan

South Africa

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Russia

United Kingdom

Greece

Germany

France

Italy

Czech Republic

Spain

Poland

Ireland

Netherlands

Eurozone

Brazil

Mexico

Canada

United States

Global PMI 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.4 52.6 52.2 52.2 51.8 51.6 51.7 52.0 51.7 51.0 51.2

52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5 55.9 54.8 53.9 53.9 55.1 55.7 54.1 54.0

53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5 54.3 54.8 53.5 55.3 55.3 53.9 51.0 48.7 48.9 49.0 49.8

51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.3 54.3 55.3 56.6 54.4 53.8 53.8 53.3

50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.2 49.3 49.1 48.7 50.2 50.7 49.6 46.2 46.0 45.9

48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8 51.8 50.7 50.3 50.6 50.1 50.6 51.0 51.0 52.2 52.0 52.5

48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2 53.0 54.6 53.6 54.1 52.2 52.5 54.0 55.5

49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7 56.6 56.2 56.9 55.1 57.5 56.8 55.8 57.1

48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3 49.4 49.0 49.5 51.2 53.2 52.8 55.2 55.1 54.8 54.0 52.4

48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6 53.9 52.8 52.6 52.6 54.7 53.8 54.7 54.2 54.3 54.2 55.8

50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7 56.5 54.3 55.6 54.4 55.6 53.3 56.1 55.6 56.1 54.7 55.5

47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0 49.0 48.4 49.9 51.9 53.3 53.8 54.8

46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2 47.8 46.9 48.8 48.5 48.4 47.5 49.2 47.6 48.8 48.0 49.4

49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 51.4 49.9 51.4 49.5 51.2 50.9 51.1 52.8 52.1 51.1

45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4 48.3 48.4 48.9 46.5 48.0

51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 55.4 52.5 51.6 53.2 53.5 52.5 53.1 54.1 54.4 51.9 52.0

50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4 50.3 51.7 48.9 47.6 49.7 48.1 48.9 47.6

51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8 48.5 50.3 50.4 51.5 52.2 51.4 49.8 49.6 48.0 48.5 50.2

57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8 59.1 57.6 57.9 57.8 58.5 60.1 58.3 57.0

50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6 45.9 49.0 50.7 52.7 50.5 50.2 49.8 50.0 51.6 51.5 50.1

51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5 50.5 52.5 51.7 52.4 52.0 52.0 52.2 51.6 50.3 49.9 50.9

51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8 48.7 49.0 49.9 51.1 51.1 49.2 48.8 47.8

49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2 50.4 50.0 49.6 49.7 50.7 49.6 48.9 49.2

47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3 52.0 51.4 50.0 51.7 52.1 51.0 49.2 49.3

48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7 51.0 52.1 52.7 51.5 51.7 50.7 53.5 54.8

51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2 48.0 47.6 48.5 47.5 46.4 46.7 47.1

50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5 52.9 51.2 52.1 51.3 52.6

43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9 50.7 47.3 46.5 49.4 50.1 46.9 49.0 45.4 46.3 48.0 52.3


OECD International Trade Data

The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-tries. Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of USdollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.Green lines indicate the zero level.

The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and importson a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the differencebetween exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-ance)

China (Mar 2015)

YoY

Cha

nge

−40−20

020406080

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

020406080

100

US (Feb 2015)

YoY

Cha

nge

−60−40−20

02040

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−60−40−20

0

Canada (Dec 2014)

YoY

Cha

nge

−15−10−5

05

10

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−20246

Germany (Feb 2015)

YoY

Cha

nge

−40

−20

0

20

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

05

1015202530

Japan (Feb 2015)Yo

Y C

hang

e

−30−20−10

01020

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−15−10−5

05

10

South Korea (Feb 2015)

YoY

Cha

nge

−15−10−5

05

1015

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−4−2

02468

10

India (Feb 2015)

YoY

Cha

nge

−10−5

05

1015

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−15−10−5

0

Australia (Jan 2015)

YoY

Cha

nge

−6−4−2

0246

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−2−1

01234

Eurozone (Nov 2013)

YoY

Cha

nge

−80−60−40−20

02040

Bal

ance

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−100

1020


Canadian Indicators

Retail Trade (SA)

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

−5

05

10

median: 4.70Mar 2015: 3.08

Total Manufacturing Sales Growth

YoY

Per

cent

Gro

wth

−20

010

20

median: 4.14Mar 2015: 0.26

Manufacturing New Orders Growth

YoY

Per

cent

Gro

wth

−30

−10

010

2030

median: 4.54Mar 2015: 1.47

10yr Government Bond Yields

02

46

810

median: 5.75May 2015: 1.67

Manufacturing PMI

4951

5355

May 2015: 49.80

Sales and New Orders (SA)

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

−20

010

20

SalesNew Orders (smoothed)

Tbill Yield Spread (10 yr − 3mo)

Spr

ead

(Per

cent

)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−1

01

23

4

median: 1.33May 2015: 1.04

Inflation (total and core)

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−1

01

23

4

median: 1.93Apr 2015: 0.80

TotalCore

Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA)

Rat

io

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

median: 1.35Mar 2015: 1.41


6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − Feb 2015)

as.numeric(can.bev$ui.rate)

as.n

umer

ic(c

an.b

ev$v

acan

cies

) Mar 2011 − Dec 2012Jan 2013 − Jan 2015Feb 2015

Unemployment Rate

Job

Vac

ancy

rat

e (I

ndus

tria

l)

Ownership/Rental Price Ratio

Rat

io o

f Acc

omod

atio

n O

wne

rshi

p/R

ent R

atio

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

9010

011

012

013

014

015

0

CalgaryMontrealVancouverToronto

Note: Using prices relative to 2002 as base year

Ownership relatively moreexpensive vs 2002

Rent relatively more expensive vs 2002

Unemployment Rate (SA)

Per

cent

34

56

78

910

Canada 6.8%Alberta 5.8%Ontario 6.5%

Debt Service Ratios (SA)

Per

cent

46

810

Total Debt: 6.7%Mortgage: 3.4%Consumer Debt: 6.4%

Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed)

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−40

−20

020

40

PermitsStarts


European Indicators

Unemployment Rates

Per

cent

age

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

05

1015

2025

30

Business Employment Expectations

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−40

−20

010

Industrial Orderbook Levels

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−60

−40

−20

020

Country EmploymentExpect.

Unempl.(%)

Bond Yields(%)

RetailTurnover

ManufacturingTurnover

Inflation(YoY %)

IndustryOrderbook

PMI

Series Dates May 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 May 2015� France -10.9 s 10.5 u 0.44 t 104.7 s 109.5 s 0.1 s -18.5 t 49.4 s� Germany 1.5 s 4.7 u 0.12 t NA 115.9 s 0.3 -8.0 t 51.1 t� United Kingdom 4.8 s 5.4 u 1.65 s 113.0 s NA 0.0 u -1.0 t 52.0 s� Italy -0.4 s 12.4 t 1.36 s 100.0 s NA -0.1 t -10.9 t 54.8 s� Greece -0.6 s 25.6 u 12.00 s NA NA -1.8 s -27.4 s 48.0 s� Spain 2.4 t 22.7 t 1.31 s NA NA -0.7 s -1.9 s 55.8 s� Eurozone (EU28) -0.4 s 9.7 u 1.26 t 106.2 s 109.5 s -0.1 s -10.7 t NA


Government Bond YieldsLo

ng T

erm

Yie

lds

%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

02

46

810

Economic Sentiment

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

6070

8090

110

130

Consumer Confidence

Inde

x

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−10

0−

60−

200

20Inflation (Harmonized Prices)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

median: 1.90Mar 2015: −0.10−1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 Euro AreaUS

Harmonized Inflation: Mar 2015

AUT 0.9%

BGR−0.9%

DEU 0.3%

ESP−0.7%

FIN−0.1%

FRA 0.1%

GBR 0.0%

GRC−1.8%

HRV−0.1%

HUN 0.0%

IRL−0.4%

ISL−0.3%

ITA−0.1%

NOR 1.8%

POL−0.9%

ROU 0.6%

SWE 0.5%

<−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% >7.0%

YoY % Change in Prices

PMI: May 2015

<40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0>60.0

Steady ExpandingContracting

BRA45.9

CAN49.8

DEU51.1

ESP55.8

FRA49.4

GBR52.0

GRC48.0

IRL57.1

ITA54.8

MEX53.3

POL52.4

SAU57.0

TUR50.2

USA54.0

RUS47.6

PMI Change: Apr − May

<−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0

PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating

CAN 0.8

DEU−1.0

ESP 1.6

FRA 1.4

GBR 0.1

GRC 1.5

IRL 1.3

ITA 1.0

POL−1.6

TUR 1.7

USA−0.1

RUS−1.3


Chinese Indicators

Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi-nancial Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 thatgross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-stead, he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-native indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank

lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government anddiffers slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the ShanghaiComposite Index as a measure of stock performance.

Manufacturing PMI

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

4045

5055

60

May 2015: 49.20

Shanghai Composite Index

Inde

x V

alue

(M

onth

ly H

igh/

Low

)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

010

0030

0050

00

Jun 2015: 5023.10

Electricity Generated

100

Mill

ion

KW

H (

log

scal

e)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1000

2000

3000

5000

Apr 2015: 4450.00

Electricity GeneratedLong Term TrendShort Term Average

Consumer Confidence Index

Inde

x

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

9810

010

210

410

610

811

0

median: 103.70Apr 2015: 107.60

Exports

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

−20

020

4060

80

median: 18.60May 2015: −2.50

Retail Sales Growth

YoY

Per

cent

Cha

nge

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1015

20

median: 13.00May 2015: 10.10


Global Climate Change

Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US NationalClimatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomalyfrom the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference

from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitationand 1971-2000 for temperature.

Average Temperature Anomalies from Nov 2014 - Apr 2015

<−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 >4.0Anomalies in Celcius WarmerCooler Anomalies in Celcius

−4 −2 0 2 4

Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Oct 2014 - Mar 2015

<−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 >40.0Anomalies in millimeters WetterDrier Anomalies in millimeters

−40 −20 0 20 40


global economics update - june 2015

Economy & Finance

us wages

rates10 us ination

us economy

us key

us fed

wage ination

ination charts

chinese indicators