global diet change: implications for agriculture and nutrition
DESCRIPTION
Mark Rosegrant 2020 Conference on "Leveraging Agriculture for Improving Nutrition and Health" February 11, 2011TRANSCRIPT
Global Diet Change Implications for Agriculture and Nutrition
Mark W. RosegrantDirector
Siwa MsangiSenior Research Fellow
Environment and Production Technology Division
www.ifpri.org
Projected Food Prices: Increasing Scarcity
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wheat Maize Rice
2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
Based on IFPRI IMPACT Scenarios
Notes: 2010 = 100; CC = climate change
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Non-food Competitors in Production
Demand for biofuels and bioenergy
Emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration
Conservation and biodiversity
Food
Water
Energy
Land
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Agricultural Growth and Food Security
Supply drivers
Climate change
Water and land scarcity
Science and technology policy
Investment in agricultural research
Policy and governance reform
Demand drivers
Population:9 billion people in 2050
Income growth: Africa, not just Asia and
Latin America
Urbanization: in 2008 50% urban in 2050 78% urban
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Major Consequences
Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods
Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables
Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils
Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed
Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock
Intense pressure on land and water
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Dietary and Food System Approaches to Improving Nutrition
Reducing post harvest losses
• 10% for grains; 25% for perishables
• Economic recoverability limited
Wasting less food
• 20% wastage in households
Consuming fish from sustainable stocks
Reducing consumption of meat and dairy products
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Key Question
Page 7
Would reduction in meat consumption in richer countries improve food security in developing countries?
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Dietary Change Is Not Easy
CAMPAIGNS
Advocacy, educational, and public relations campaigns
PROMOTE LOW-MEAT MENUS
Cafeterias, schools, hospitals, and other public-sector institutions
POLICIES
Taxation and subsidy policies to increase the cost of meat compared to other food products
www.ifpri.orgSource: IMPACT model projections
Per Capita Meat ConsumptionLess meat in rich countries = more in developing countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
China Brazil High-income countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
Developing minus China &
Brazil
Kilo
gram
per
cap
ita
(per
yea
r)
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Feed Demand for Coarse Grains
Less meat = Lower feed-grain demand
Source: IMPACT model projections
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
China Brazil Developing minus China &
Brazil
High Income World
Mill
ion
s o
f m
etri
c to
ns
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
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World Prices of GrainsReduced feed grain demand = Lower grain prices
Source: IMPACT model projections
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Rice Wheat Maize
2000
2030 baseline
US$
pe
r m
etr
ic t
on
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Per Capita Food Grain Consumption
Source: IMPACT model projections
Lower grain prices increases demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
High-income countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing minus China & Brazil
Kilo
gram
pe
r ca
pit
a (p
er
year
)
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
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Per Capita Calorie Availability
Source: IMPACT model projections
Lower prices increase calorie access
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
China Brazil Developing minus China &
Brazil
High income
Kca
l per
cap
ita
(per
day
)
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
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Child Malnutrition
Small improvement
Source: IMPACT model projections
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All Sub-Saharan Africa All Asia Developing countries
Mill
ion
s o
f ch
ildre
n a
ged
0-5
2000 2030 baseline 2030 HIC+China/Brazil (low meat)
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Lower Meat Production Saves Large Areas of Pasture and Cropland
Source: IMPACT model projections
0
50
100
150
200
250
China Brazil Developing minus China &
Brazil
High income World
Are
a sa
ved
(m
illio
ns
of h
ect
are
s)
HIC only HIC + China Brazil
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Conclusions
Halving of meat consumption in richer countries has
• small nutrition benefits in developing countries
• big land saving impacts
Dietary change is a useful tool for improved food security and nutrition
But transformative progress requires much broader investment in agricultural and rural development