GLOBAL CITIES INSTITUTEAn RMIT Research and

Innovation Institute

Urban Climate Change Infrastructure Adaptation

updated January 30-08

GCI Jan 30-08

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

Goal: to create a global framework for the infrastructural adaptation of cities to climate change.

Objectives:

• to complete an assessment of the relative vulnerability of strategically-chosen cities in the Asia Pacific region

• to design strategies to increase resilience of those cities in relation to climate-change impacts.

• to implement an initiative composed of specific urban-infrastructural adaptive responses based on RMIT’s scientific and technological innovations that exemplify the general global principles that should frame urban climate-change adaptation

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GCI Jan 30-08

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

4 Integrated Program activities: 1. Assess and map the vulnerability of urban infrastructure in

selected cities in Asia Pacific to climate change impacts; 2. Develop scenarios and strategic pathways for urban

infrastructural adaptation; 3. Implement an adaptive infrastructural initiative in two cities

— one Australian and one in the Asia-Pacific region; and 4. Propose a global framework for equitable and efficient

allocation of adaptation costs; and convene a global or regional mayoral event on World Environment Day, 2008, to launch a global city compact for implementing city-level adaptation commitments.

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GCI Jan 30-08

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

1. Urban Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment:

Assess the climate-related infrastructural vulnerability in comparative fashion of different intermediate sized Asian-Pacific cities that are potential locales for a climate-change initiative by conducting:

1. Risk-hazard analysis of urban physical infrastructure, especially sensitivity to climate change impacts on water, built assets, waste management, and energy systems;

2. Socio-economic analysis of vulnerability arising from climate change urban infrastructural impacts due differential availability of and access to resources needed for adaptation.

Year 1: Convene RMIT research group; identify research collaborators in Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh City; prepare common framework for comparative research and analysis; conduct preliminary research. Use this research to identify other highly-vulnerable candidate sites for the infrastructural initiative.

Year 2: Produce integrated infrastructural vulnerability profiles of specific urban communities and cities to external stresses arising from climate change; develop quantitative and qualitative indices of vulnerability and sensitivity, and production of decision tools (based on GIS) to enable cities to conduct such analysis, including stakeholder consultation and participation.

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Supporting Projects 2007-8, year 1

• HCMC scenarios workshop and insights

• VGBC and VASS joint research and training projects

• Possible comparative local community studies by CS WG (Hamilton, St. Kilda, Westernport (?), Port Moresby,KL, HCMC?

• Research Tools (none selected as of yet)

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VGBC Workplan 2008

GCI Jan 30-08

Phase I -- VGBC-GCI Sust. CCA Research/Training Program (11/15/07-7/25/08)1. Identify participants and initial research projects. VGBC technical committee,in three bi-monthly meetings, selects VN working group. Joint research topicsare selected from above list for rolling implementation in consultation withrepresentatives of GCI-RMIT climate change and infrastructure workinggroups. (12/7/07-1/26/08)2. Develop funding strategies for 2008/Phase II. VGBC director and GCI-RMITprogram leaders identify funding sources, devise strategies for collaborationcontinuation and expansion, and begin implementation. (12/07/07-4/14/08)3. Develop sustainable CCA training program. VGBC tailors weeklong intensivetraining for VN working group, centered on April 16-17 green building anddesign seminar in Melbourne. (12/15-4/1)4. Preliminary research. VN working group conducts initial research, datacollection, and literature reviews. (12/7-4/15)5. VN researchers contribute to V-SCCAN website. Working group summarizesresearch for Vietnamese and GCI-RMIT on V-SCCAN. (2/15-6/30)6. VN researchers visit Australia. VN working group visits Melbourne for greenbuilding seminar and enhancement lectures, green building study tours, andresearch presentation and discussion with RMIT-GCI researchers. The lastdevelops joint research follow-up and enhancement. (4/14-4/21)7. Assessment of funding status and strategic review. VGBC director and GCIRMITprogram leaders discuss revisions to funding strategies andimplementation plan for remainder of 2008. (4/14-4/21)8. Joint research determined. VN working group and GCI-RMIT researchersfinalize joint topics, begin working toward paper completion and submission topeer-reviewed journal. (4/22-5/15)9. Phase I midpoint report. VGBC and VN working group summarize results ofvisit, direction of joint research. Published on V-SCCAN. (5/15)10. Fundraising implementation. VGBC director and GCI-RMIT program leaderscontinue joint fundraising efforts. (4/22-7/25)11. Submission to scholarly journals. Research teams submit initial papers. (7/25or in time for 2008 publication)12. Sustainable CCA training: VN working group prepares Vietnamese trainingseminars for secondary group (150) of building professionals. (4/25-7/25)

Funded by:CCAP WG 55KIFS WG 7KVSF 10K

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Vietnam Research Themes: 1 VGBC

GCI Jan 30-08

1. Urban planning mechanisms and dynamicsa. A study of the institutional and policy context of urban development inViet Nam, with a focus on its two largest cities, Hanoi and HCMC.b. Subtopics: the changing relationship between city and nationalgovernment; bureaucratic roles; CCA capacity/needs; housing anddevelopment policy with regards to equity, social, economic, andenvironmental goals. RMIT Counterpart Researcher is?

3. Developing sustainable CCA (green) building benchmarksa. Integrating CCA concepts into development of VGBC green buildingbenchmarks. (Possible extension for regional adoption/training.)b. Subtopics: global green standards, modifications for tropical climatesand developing economies, global CCA concepts, possible andprobable GCC outcomes for Viet Nam over various timelines.\RMIT counterpart: CFD…and?

6. Solar desalinization (low-energy water supply/treatment)a. Extending CARE (RMIT) work on solar desal, saltwater greenhouses,and other decentralized water infrastructure projects to Viet Nam.b. Initial scoping study gauges which technologies hold most potential forrapid, efficient integration into VN infrastructure.RMIT counterpart: CARE--Aliakbar

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2. VASS

GCI Jan 30-08

VASS 3 social science fellows, March-June, study tour in Melbourne, report onSocial science priorities for CCA in Vietnam (jointly with RMIT researchers, VGBC,Focus on urbanJointly funded by Endeavour Fellowships, JF-GCI VSF, CCAPPoint people: JF + JAS (research integration), SJ (agenda), IFT (logistics), ? (admin)

Theme VGBC-VASS linkage:2. GIS-based mapping of urban socio-economic landscapea. Gathering social and economic urban data with regards to aspectssuch as housing, location, and urban forms.b. Identifying social, economic, and geophysical vulnerabilities withrespect to GCC.

Followup reciprocal RMIT research visits to Vietnam late 2008: funded by NF-R&I?

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Research and Decision Tools

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None selected as of yet for Vulnerability assessment

Is GCI investing in GIS is a key issue

GCI Jan 30-08

2. Urban Infrastructural Climate Change Adaptive Scenarios and Strategies

Develop a set of basic adaptation scenarios and strategies as a strategic tool to be used by policy-makers in regional cities, including sustainability-driven retreat, highly-built defences, and riding-out the storm, with each scenario containing technological, economic, demographic, cultural, and security strands; for energy and built-infrastructure, quantitative analysis of adaptive paths will be developed in order to:

1. Identify robust urban adaptation strategies2. Develop strategies with other cities in a common analytical framework (possibly

new software decision tool focused on urban managers, which are currently non-existent), and

3. Ascertain opportunities for co-ordination, sharing, collaboration, and possible initiatives with counterpart cities.

Year 1: Convene urban infrastructure climate change adaptation scenarios workshop

Year 2: Conduct urban adaptive pathway workshop

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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Supporting ProjectsScenarios and Robust Community Strategies

Implementation: Jodi-Anne Smith salary, half time (trained by GBN in Oct-07)

HCMC workshop, Nov 07: Publication: Vietnam HCMC workshop report (Futures)

Workshops 2008:

Hamilton Workshop Feb

Report: Yaso-Martin team with CRG

Publication:

ARC Linkage: community response

Oz-Indonesia CC&Security June Canberra

Richard Tanter Human Security WG – Pelangi in Jakarta

Publication: Science, Futures, CC journals

ARC Linkage with security agencies, Indonesian orgs

Co-Funding: Wallace Global Fund

St. Kilda, Martin-Yaso-CSWG, Fall 08

Scenarios Quantitative Tool Development

ABM Tool Development integrated with scenarios method (Feb 8 th meeting)

ARC Linkage: Colin Arrowsmith

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GCI Jan 30-08

3. Urban Infrastructure CC Adaptation Initiative

Develop RMIT-driven sectorally-specific, cross-disciplinary technological infrastructural innovations to increase urban resilience and to increase adaptive capacity to climate change.

1. Select candidates from an RMIT technological inventory for the initiative by screening possible innovations against the criteria of least-regrets, overlap with globally and socially-justified climate mitigation measures, scalability and replicability, and extent to which it reduces the multiple jeopardies facing the most vulnerable populations due to non-climate change stresses

2. Develop, test, and transfer the innovation to the demonstration project level in at least two cities, one in Australia and one in the region, within three years.

Year 1: inventory and select RMIT infrastructural candidate technologies for climate change adaptation in context of candidate vulnerable cities assessed in element 1; initial candidates are buildings energy-related adaptations; and waste water treatment adaptation technologies.

Year 2: implement demonstration project and develop related decision tools for assessing need for and utility of a range of adaptive technologies

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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Supporting ProjectsSolar-Thermal/Low Grade Heat Water Desalination Technology

Implementation, CARE-Bundoora, Aliakbar et al, 20K/y, 3 years

Co-funding strategies for years 2, 3…Vic G, industry partners

Publication: technical journal, mid-08 (Peter Golding lead author, U-Texas)

ARC strategy: Linkage with DPI, industry partners

Building Adaptive Materials Calculator

Implementation: Center for Design, 20K/year, 3 years

Co-funding strategies for years 2, 3

Publication:

ARC strategy?

GIS-Adaptive Urban Watershed Management

Implementation: Felicity Roddick, 30K/year, 2 years

Contingent upon Melb Water co-funding (Feb 15-08 decision)

ARC strategy?

Water Recycling Chemical Treatment Process

Implementation: Felicity Roddick, 15K/year, 2 years

Contingent upon Melb Water co-funding (Feb 15-08 decision)

ARC strategy?

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GCI Jan 30-08

4. Global Climate Change Adaptation Rules

Unlike climate change mitigation, there are no standards or rules by which to allocate the cost of adaptation in ways that are equitable and efficient.

RMIT will convene a research group of eminent philosophers, economists, development practitioners, political scientists, and sociologists who will develop a set of qualitative and quantitative indices that should govern the allocation of incremental adaptation driven by anthropogenic climate change. This group will

1. Examine the evolving climate change adaptation practices and rationales of international institutions such as the Global Environment Facility, the World Bank, the IFC, the WTO, etc; and will engage prominent practitioners in the field of climate change adaptation such as insurance companies, bankers, architect and engineering firms, etc.

2. Evaluate the potential for cities to become the prime drivers for an equitable and efficient global strategy to adapt to climate change.

3. Examine the potential for a city-city level global compact on climate change adaptation to supplement or complement the post-Kyoto Protocol state-level framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation and introduce this instititutional concept to mayors throughout the region.

Year 1: Conduct study and deliver policy proposals on Global climate change adaptation cost allocational rules.

Year 2: Convene a mayoral level pan-Pacific (or global) meeting in Melbourne or regional city such as Ho Chi Minh City, to consider role of cities and possible Global City Compact on WED, June 5, 2008.

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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Element 4: Supporting Projects

• Delayed year 1 (startup, budget limit)• OECD Round Table SD co-convener• Committee of Melbourne partner• Global Compact City Program?• Year 2: startup research, workshop

Co-funding: Rockefeller Foundation?

Climate Change Ministry ML office?

Implementation: Caroline Bayliss

ARC strategy? GCI Jan 30-08 15

RMIT CCA Infrastructure1. Assessment of RMIT CCA actual, latent research capacities

Networked with Melbourne University (later others)

Mine RMIT research database

Profiling and networked capacities, software to enable users to identify capacity-clusters that match CCA issue-clusters

Implementation: Hayes, Falk, JOD, now JAS, needs project leader

Co-Funding: AGO-Griffith networks (RFP for settlements and infrastructure research later in 2008)

Arc Linkage in future on CCA knowledge and networks?

2. AdaptNet

Scanning key reports for researchers

Created set of key users, ping them every 2 weeks

Translated into Vietnamese and Indonesian already

Engages donors

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Pending GCI website

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Project PortfolioInfrastructure

AdaptNet

RMIT networked CCA research profiling

Tools

Scenarios method

Workshops

ABM simulation?

Building Adaptive Materials Calculator

Adaptive Water

Tech

Solar-low grade heat desalination

Chemical treatment gray water recycling

Research

Adaptive green building; Vietnam green building

Comparative community adaptive response and strategies

Security impacts of CC on Indonesian-Australia relations

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GCI Jan 30-08

Urban climate change impacts related to infrastructure

Sea level rise/intermediate size cities• Coastal zone and watershed flooding: Retreat vs defend vs do nothing• Impact on urban infrastructure—drainage and watershed management, water and sewage, energy, built, transport and telecom, services (especially food, education,

recreation, tourism,); and especially on linked networks, cascading failure potential• Technological cost and risk• Equity implications of each option—who is obligated to pay, what is the cost, and who is likely to pay given the power differentials

Climate extremes• Drought-driven wildfires and downwind transport of particles, ground-level ozone, CO, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons affect urban populations• Temperature, prolonged heat island effects• Technological: energy, materials, land use implications of greater T range• Equity implications —impact and cost on old, young, sick

Extreme weather events• Impact on cities Heat waves (heat stroke, dehydration, exhaustion, cardiovascular disease and mortality) Air quality (photochemical smog, • Warning systems• Flooding driving rodents into high density habitations, impacts on sanitation and water systems and public health• Winds and wind loads• Urban and Building Design Storms and Infrastructure, especially transport in ice-snow storms, fog and effects on vehicles and people, including aircraft• Insurance• Preventive measures

Disease vectors• Impact on urban populations and public health care cost and systems (aeroallegens from weeds, pollens, molds) combined with diesel particles affect respiratory disease,

insurance…)• New insect-borne and emerging infectious diseases, especially mosquitos, and avian-mosquito interactions• Mobility and density/transmission belts• Urban form

Social Impacts• Wealth distribution impacts over time due to changes in asset values• Income and household expenditure impacts• Geographical and social zones in urban areas by relative vulnerability, % of infrastructure, area, population, at risk• Adaptive capacity by zone, income, maturity of infrastructure• In-out migration flows• Policing and security

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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GCI Jan 30-08

RMIT Water-Related Infrastructure Adaptive Capacity Cluster

Severe storms resulting from climate change can have severe effects on water and sanitation systems, with major implications for public health. In addition to direct transmission of water-borne gastro-intestinal diseases resulting from the impact of floods on these systems, cities also face new insect-borne infectious diseases (especially via mosquitos) resulting from pooled and stagnant water with high organic loads between floods. Coastal cities face the additional burden of sea level rise and impact of direct contamination of drinking water by sewage and seafood contamination due to nutrient flushes and harmful algal blooms.

Adaptive measures are manifold but include relocation of processing facilities, re-powering with decentralized energy sources, flood control and mitigation measures, and many public health monitoring and management technologies and methods

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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GCI Jan 30-08

Sampling of RMIT Water-Related Infrastructure Adaptive Capacity Cluster

Associate Professor Roger Hadgraft, Dr Nira Jayasuriya and Dr David Law– Modelling risk for infrastructure assets associated with water and wastewater with regard to maintenance and potential environmental impact– Lifecycle determination of assets associated with water and wastewater– Management of stormwater: distribution, upgrading of quality, management of surge flows and maximising harvest– Modelling of water catchment and distribution systems– Water audits and demand studies 

Professor John Buckeridge, Associate Professor John Brumley– Determination of extent of ground water resources and policy for their allocation, water trading.  – Prediction of land subsidence and effects on infrastructure and environment due to groundwater extraction. – Sustainable management of mineral springs with regard to hydrogeological and social factors. – Engineering ethics, integration of cultural and spiritual values with scientific research and engineering design.

Professor Felicity Roddick, Dr John Harris– Treatment of potable water to comply with public health and aesthetic standards, – Municipal and industrial wastewater treatment, – Development and optimisation of methods for recycling wastewater– Application of waste minimisation methods to reduce waste production and water pollution, particularly to reduce water demand.

Associate Professor Barry Meehan, Dr Nichola Porter– Water and wastewater treatment technology– Application of waste minimisation methods to reduce water pollution– Sustainable management of biosolids arising from wastewater treatment 

A/Prof. Ann Lawrie: -- develop convergent biotech-nanotech-IT innovations

David Mercer -- Policy analysis -- Environmental impacts of urban growth

-- Water futures and climate change

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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GCI Jan 30-08

Indicative International Partners • IGES, East Asian urban climate change network• START East Asia network• IISD, Canada• IIED, London• ICLEI• Climate Group Cities Network• Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, City

program• UNEP Adaptation Center• Cities of SF, Vancouver, Seattle, Seoul, Tokyo, Ho Chi

Minh, Shanghai, Jakarta

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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GCI Jan 30-08

Indicative Domestic PartnersCity of MelbourneVictorian Government—DSEMelbourne University-RMIT sustainability hubMonash University regional CC modellingCSIRO Atmospheric Sciences Division AGO: five local urban adaptation projects, six

applicantsCorporate and civil society partners depending on

city and infrastructure choice

Global Climate Change Adaptation Program

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GCI Jan 30-08

CC CAPACITY CLUSTERS

RMIT Urban Heat Island and Public Health Adaptive Capacity

Example: Climate change impacts:

– Increased pollen production by weeds and trees due to more carbon dioxide combined with longer growing seasons;

– Increased carbon dioxide may also stimulate increased molds, further nurtured by increased humidity resulting from higher temperatures combined with increased intensity of rainfall

– Particles such as diesel exhaust combine with mold and pollen to produce more allergens that are then delivered to vulnerable populations susceptible to respiratory disease

– Photochemical smog will increase due to longer and hotter heat waves that affect cardio-respiratory illness and mortality.

Adaptive measures include

– Public health system responses to increased demand for services due to heat island effects of climate change

– Ameliorate heat island by public transport, green belts, urban trees, parks, and roof gardens

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