1

11

Glimpses of the FutureGlimpses of the FutureDavid Cossey, Union College (NY)David Cossey, Union College (NY)

CCCU Technology Conference 2006CCCU Technology Conference 2006Cedarville UniversityCedarville University

Cedarville, OhioCedarville, Ohio

Thursday Thursday -- June 1, 2006June 1, 2006

22

www1.union.edu/~cosseydwww1.union.edu/~cosseyd

The The pdfpdf files for the slides are files for the slides are available at the address available at the address

aboveabove

2

33

David V. CosseyDavid V. CosseyBA, The KingBA, The King’’s Colleges CollegeMA, Lehigh UniversityMA, Lehigh UniversityMS, University of Rhode IslandMS, University of Rhode Island

Chief Information Officer, Union Chief Information Officer, Union College (NY)College (NY)Director of Computing and Director of Computing and Instructional Technology, The Instructional Technology, The Wharton School at the University of Wharton School at the University of PennsylvaniaPennsylvaniaBarrington College, Director of Barrington College, Director of Computer ServicesComputer Services

44

Union CollegeUnion CollegeSchenectady, New YorkSchenectady, New York

www.union.eduwww.union.edu

Founded 1795Founded 17952,100 students2,100 studentsLiberal ArtsLiberal ArtsEngineering programs since 1845Engineering programs since 1845InnovativeInnovative

3

55

OutlineOutline

PreliminariesPreliminariesWhere have we come Where have we come from?from?Where are we?Where are we?Where are we going?Where are we going?““Are we there yet?Are we there yet?””

66Library of Congress-April 16, 2002

“Nothing could be more misleading than the claim that computer technology introduced the age of information.

The printing press began that age in the early sixteenth century. . . .

Fifty years after the press was invented, more than eight million books had been printed, almost all of them filled with information that had previously been unavailable to the average person.” Neil Postman

in Technolopoly,p. 61

4

77

Going,Going,GoingGoing

Gone!Gone!

So that we put things in So that we put things in perspectiveperspective

88

GoingGoing

5

99

Going Going -- Slide Projectors and . . .Slide Projectors and . . .

. . . and APS camerasTimes-Union, January 14, 2004

1010

A last look?A last look?

6

1111

GoneGone

Records Records –– 33 1/3, 33 1/3, 4545’’s, 78s, 78’’ss88--track tapetrack tape

1212

GOING?? GOING?? -- Reading at RiskReading at Risk

http://www.arts.gov/pub/ReadingAtRisk.pdf

““Reading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in AmericaReading at Risk: A Survey of Literary Reading in America””National Endowment for the ArtsNational Endowment for the Arts

7

1313

Decline in Book Sales Decline in Book Sales --20032003

23 million fewer books 23 million fewer books sold in 2003 over 2002sold in 2003 over 20022.222 Billion books in 2.222 Billion books in 200320032.245 Billion books in 2.245 Billion books in 20022002Greater competition Greater competition ––““magazines, cable radio, magazines, cable radio, music and moviesmusic and movies””Times-Union, Sunday, May 16, 2004, page J5

1414

8

1515

From From ComputerWorldComputerWorld55--2222--20062006

in celebration of the 2000in celebration of the 2000thth issueissue

1616

Some PreliminariesSome Preliminaries

9

1717

““How Much InformationHow Much Information”” reportreport

Originally released in 2000Originally released in 2000Revised October 2003Revised October 2003From the University of California at From the University of California at BerkeleyBerkeley’’s School of Information s School of Information Management and SystemsManagement and SystemsFull report Full report –– 100 pages100 pageshttp://www.sims.berkeley.edu/researchttp://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/howh/projects/how--muchmuch--infoinfo--2003/2003/

1818

Measures of SizeMeasures of Size

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000,000ZettaByteZettaByte (ZB)(ZB)

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000YottaByteYottaByte (YB)(YB)

1,000,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000,000ExaByteExaByte (EB)(EB)

1,000,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000,000PetaBytePetaByte (PB)(PB)

1,000,000,000,0001,000,000,000,000TeraByteTeraByte (TB)(TB)

1,000,000,0001,000,000,000GigaByteGigaByte (GB)(GB)

1,000,0001,000,000MegaByteMegaByte (MB)(MB)

1,000 (actually 1,024)1,000 (actually 1,024)KiloByteKiloByte

SizeSizeTermTerm

Source: “How Much Information” report, 2000.

10

1919

Some ExamplesSome Examples2 2 PetabytesPetabytes(2,000,000,000,000,000) (2,000,000,000,000,000) -- all all US academic research librariesUS academic research libraries

5 5 ExabytesExabytes(5,000,000,000,000,000,000)(5,000,000,000,000,000,000)--all words ever spoken by human all words ever spoken by human beingsbeings

Source: “How Much Information” report, 2003.

2020

How big is big?How big is big?

1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia 1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia Britannica Britannica 1 Terabyte 1 Terabyte (1,000,000,000,000)(1,000,000,000,000)

Source: The Internet Archive: Building an ‘Internet Library’ – December 2001

11

2121

When is the When is the rightright time to time to deploy a given technology?deploy a given technology?

We are confronted with this We are confronted with this challenge all the timechallenge all the time

2222Kennebec River – Bath, Maine - Summer of 2003

When is the When is the rightright time to deploy a given time to deploy a given technology?technology?

12

2323

2424

““. . . have to decide. . . have to decidewhen to playwhen to play””

--George HickmanGeorge HickmanCIO, Albany Medical CenterCIO, Albany Medical Center

13

2525

Technology continues to be . . . Technology continues to be . . .

Faster!Faster!cheaper!cheaper!

smaller!smaller!and bigger (capacities)!and bigger (capacities)!

2626

. . . and these days you can . . . and these days you can buy your personal computer buy your personal computer

almost anywherealmost anywhere

How about buying it at . . .How about buying it at . . .

14

2727

2828

Cost per Cost per GigaByteGigaByte of hard disk spaceof hard disk space

50 cents50 centsSummer of 2003Summer of 2003

25 25 -- 35 cents35 centsSummer of 2005Summer of 2005

$2.00$2.00Summer/Fall of 2001Summer/Fall of 2001

$3.33$3.33Fall of 2000Fall of 2000

$1.00$1.00Summer/Fall of 2002Summer/Fall of 2002

$5.00$5.00Summer of 2000Summer of 2000

$10.00$10.00Summer of 1999Summer of 1999

Cost per GBCost per GBWhenWhen

15

2929

Smaller DevicesSmaller Devices

3030

4GB drive4GB drive$99$99

May 2006May 2006

16

3131

3232

17

3333

Converging DevicesConverging Devicesthat take advantage of that take advantage of ““smallnesssmallness””

combined with powercombined with power

PDAPDAPhonePhoneCameraCameraNokia 770 Nokia 770 Internet Internet tablettabletiPodiPod (5G)(5G)etc.etc.

3434

PalmPalmLifeDriveLifeDrive

4GB HD4GB HD320 x 480 320 x 480 resolutionresolutionWiWi--FiFiBluetoothBluetoothAudioAudioVideoVideoVoice Voice recorderrecorderCameraCameraIR portIR port$499$499

18

3535Nextel/Blackberry ad – Mobile Enterprise – 10/2004, p. 9

. . . but . . . but the one the one

I like I like the the

mostmost

3636

. . . But we are trying to, either. . . But we are trying to, either

Put too much on a small screenPut too much on a small screenOr we are trying to adjust to the Or we are trying to adjust to the smaller image (as opposed to a 17smaller image (as opposed to a 17--inch or bigger monitor)inch or bigger monitor)

Is there a better way?Is there a better way?

19

3737

The Wearable Computer, The Wearable Computer, especially a virtual screenespecially a virtual screen

October, 2001

3838

Technology ReviewMIT

June, 2001Page 66

20

3939

New recording technologiesNew recording technologies

Seagate: “The shift to perpendicular recording allows it to bump upThe maximum capacity of its notebook drive to 160 GB from 120 GB

Source: Daily Gazette, January 17, 2006, page A7

4040

ThereThere’’s smalls small. . . and then. . . and then

therethere’’s REALLY SMALL!!!s REALLY SMALL!!!

21

4141

4242

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

Computer Chronicles – Week of January 29, 2002

Dr. Stan Williams – Hewlett-Packard Labs Quantum Science Research Center

22

4343

Really small . . .Really small . . .

Dr. Stan Williams – Hewlett-Packard Labs Quantum Science Research Center

Computer Chronicles – Week of January 29, 2002

4444

From Hewlett-Packard Quantum Science Research Center website Display Galleryhttp://www.hpl.hp.com/research/qsr/

23

4545

IBMIBM’’s s ‘‘MillipedeMillipede’’ ProjectProject

Store the equivalent of 25 Store the equivalent of 25 DVDs on a surface the size DVDs on a surface the size of a postage stampof a postage stampTrillion bits per square Trillion bits per square inch inch 20 times higher 20 times higher than the densest magnetic than the densest magnetic storage available todaystorage available today

http://www.research.ibm.com/resources/news/20020611_millipede.html

4646

NanotechnologyNanotechnologyat Union Collegeat Union College

24

4747

Converging TechnologiesConverging Technologies(http://(http://ct.union.educt.union.edu))

4848

25

4949

WebWeb--book for Coursebook for Course““Frontiers of NanotechnologyFrontiers of Nanotechnology””

5050

26

5151

Anytime,Anytime,Anywhere,Anywhere,and Mobileand Mobile

5252

Schaffer LibrarySchaffer Library(Union College)(Union College)

27

5353

Outside (Dartmouth College)Outside (Dartmouth College)

5454

28

5555

Free wirelessat

Panera Bread

FREE Wireless

5656

TT--mobile hotspotsmobile hotspots

Border’s, Kinko’s, airports, hotels, . . .

29

5757

LibrariesLibraries

5858

The Widener Library at HarvardThe Widener Library at Harvard““ . . . one of Harvard. . . one of Harvard’’s ninetys ninety--odd school odd school and departmental collections, totaling and departmental collections, totaling some 14 million volumes; taken together some 14 million volumes; taken together they make up they make up the largest academic the largest academic library the world has ever knownlibrary the world has ever known..””[Battles, p. 4][Battles, p. 4]““This library, like all research libraries of This library, like all research libraries of any size, any size, acquires more books each acquires more books each year than any of us could read in a year than any of us could read in a lifetimelifetime..”” [Battles, p. 8][Battles, p. 8]

Source: Library: An Unquiet History by Matthew Battles, pages 4, 8

30

5959

Library of CongressLibrary of Congress

Adds 7,000 books a dayAdds 7,000 books a day. . . to the more than 100 Million . . . to the more than 100 Million items already standingitems already standing. . . on its 530 miles of shelves. . . on its 530 miles of shelves

Source: Library: An Unquiet History by Matthew Battles, page 8

6060

1010--20 20 TeraBytesTeraBytes (from 2 different (from 2 different estimates) represents the printed estimates) represents the printed

collection of the Library of collection of the Library of CongressCongress

Source (10 TB estimate): “How Much Information” report, 2000.Source (20 TB estimate): The Internet Archive: “Building an ‘Internet Library’” Dec. 2001.

31

6161

ad from October 2003ad from October 2003

38 volumes

6262

Book sizes (Pages, MB, Inches)Book sizes (Pages, MB, Inches)

1.251.251.2271.227365365HBHBOrrOrr

1.001.00.433.433334334HBHBWarrenWarren

2.252.252.6962.6961,2641,264HBHBGrudemGrudem

1.001.00.432.432382382PBPBEdwardsEdwards

1.621.62.749.749574574HBHBColsonColson

0.500.50.323.323198198PBPBBerkhofBerkhof

Inches Inches (paper (paper copy)copy)

Size in Size in MBMB

Pages Pages (paper)(paper)

Paperback Paperback or or HardbackHardback

AuthorAuthor

32

6363

Library ShelvingLibrary Shelving

Three (3) feet wideThree (3) feet wideSix (6) shelves highSix (6) shelves highOne mile One mile 1,760 1,760 shelvesshelves

6464

Some extrapolationsSome extrapolations(based on the previous sizes)(based on the previous sizes)

530 pages per 530 pages per MegaByteMegaByte1.3 inches of shelf space per 1.3 inches of shelf space per MegaByteMegaByte

On my previous PDA (with 128 MB On my previous PDA (with 128 MB card):card):13.8 feet of books, or a little over 4 13.8 feet of books, or a little over 4 full library shelvesfull library shelves67,000 pages67,000 pages

33

6565

2,166 feet of 2,166 feet of books (20 GB) books (20 GB)

fillsfills120 library 120 library

shelving unitsshelving units

Each unit is 3 feet Each unit is 3 feet wide and there wide and there are 6 shelves in are 6 shelves in

each uniteach unit

6666

BookbagBookbag of the Future?of the Future?--textbooks on DVDtextbooks on DVD

NY TimesMarch 2, 2000 VitalSource Technologies

From 2001 CCCU presentation

34

6767

Vital Source TechnologiesVital Source Technologieswww.vitalbook.comwww.vitalbook.com

VitalbookVitalbook DVD DVD –– 9 GB DVD9 GB DVDDental schools Dental schools –– 250 books on DVD 250 books on DVD –– each each school licenses the ones they useschool licenses the ones they useStudents Students –– mandated laptop computer and mandated laptop computer and DVD ($1,500 for the DVD for the original 5 DVD ($1,500 for the DVD for the original 5 schools. A 4schools. A 4--year cost)year cost)DVD DVD –– updated every semester. They get to updated every semester. They get to keep the last version of the disk they keep the last version of the disk they receivedreceivedIBM has partnered with IBM has partnered with VitalSourceVitalSource

6868

VitalSourceVitalSource todaytodayThe The VitalSourceVitalSource BookshelfBookshelf

35

6969

7070

36

7171

7272

37

7373

Reference WorksReference Works

7474

38

7575

Schools Without BooksSchools Without Books(IBM partners with (IBM partners with VitalSourceVitalSource))

March/April,2004

7676

Collaborative Collaborative TechnologiesTechnologies

““FlattenersFlatteners”” today and more today and more tomorrowtomorrow

39

7777

The World is Flat:The World is Flat:A Brief History of the A Brief History of the TwentyTwenty--First CenturyFirst Century

ByByThomas L. FriedmanThomas L. Friedman

7878

Chapter Two: The Ten Forces Chapter Two: The Ten Forces That Flattened The WorldThat Flattened The World

#1. 11/9/89. When the Walls Came #1. 11/9/89. When the Walls Came Down and the Windows Went UpDown and the Windows Went Up

#2. 8/9/95. When Netscape Went #2. 8/9/95. When Netscape Went PublicPublic

#3. Workflow Software. Let#3. Workflow Software. Let’’s Do s Do Lunch: Have Your application Talk Lunch: Have Your application Talk to My Applicationto My Application

#4. Open#4. Open--Sourcing. SelfSourcing. Self--organizing organizing Collaborative CommunitiesCollaborative Communities

#5. Outsourcing Y2K#5. Outsourcing Y2K

40

7979

Chapter Two: The Ten Forces Chapter Two: The Ten Forces That Flattened The WorldThat Flattened The World

#6. #6. OffshoringOffshoring. Running with Gazelles, . Running with Gazelles, Eating with LionsEating with Lions

#7. Supply#7. Supply--chaining. Eating Sushi in chaining. Eating Sushi in ArkansasArkansas

#8. #8. InsourcingInsourcing. What the guys in . What the guys in Funny Brown Shorts are Really DoingFunny Brown Shorts are Really Doing

#9. In#9. In--Forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Forming. Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web SearchWeb Search

#10. the Steroids. Digital, Mobile, #10. the Steroids. Digital, Mobile, PersponalPersponal and Virtualand Virtual

8080

Collaborations Collaborations -- OpportunitiesOpportunitiesShare staff resourcesShare staff resourcesSave travel expensesSave travel expensesShare expertiseShare expertiseMeetingsMeetingsWorkshopsWorkshopsSeminarsSeminars

In short, flatten the worldof Higher Education

41

8181

All institutionsAll institutions

Have access to an unlimited library Have access to an unlimited library of journalsof journalsHave access to unlimited reference Have access to unlimited reference works and original sourcesworks and original sourcesCoCo--develop and offer remote courses develop and offer remote courses (synchronously and asynchronously)(synchronously and asynchronously)Can sponsor meetings bringing Can sponsor meetings bringing people together without getting people together without getting togethertogether

8282

Asynchronous CollaborationAsynchronous Collaboration

PodcastsPodcasts and and podcastingpodcastingwikiswikis and the and the wikipediawikipediaRSS feedsRSS feedsBlogsBlogs and and bloggingblogging

42

8383

PodcastingPodcasting““ContentContent--toto--GoGo””

8484

43

8585

8686

iTunesiTunes

iTunes and podcasting

44

8787

PodcastsPodcasts –– audio and videoaudio and video

dl.tv podcast

8888

dl.tvdl.tv (Digital Life) (Digital Life) podcastpodcast

45

8989

dl.Tvdl.Tv –– Win XP on MacWin XP on Mac

9090

New Apple Store in ManhattanNew Apple Store in Manhattan

46

9191

iTunesUiTunesU

9292

wikiswikis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiki

“. . . a group of Web pages that allows users to add content, . . . , but also allows others (often completely unrestricted) to edit the content.”

47

9393

WikibooksWikibooks

9494

WikiWiki softwaresoftware

Can have your own Can have your own wikiwikiMuch of the software is free under Much of the software is free under the General Public License (GPL)the General Public License (GPL)Usually runs on a serverUsually runs on a server

48

9595

wikipedia.orgwikipedia.org

9696

49

9797

RSS and RSS feedsRSS and RSS feeds

RSS is a technology used to quickly RSS is a technology used to quickly distribute ondistribute on--demand information to demand information to subscribers of an RSS Feed.subscribers of an RSS Feed.This information can be a simple This information can be a simple news article or even an Mp3 file news article or even an Mp3 file (called a (called a PodcastPodcast).).

Source: wikipedia article “What’s RSS”

9898

RSS and RSS feedsRSS and RSS feedsAn RSS feed allows an An RSS feed allows an internetinternet user to easily user to easily recieverecieve updates or new content from a website updates or new content from a website using a simple program called a using a simple program called a Feed Feed AggregatorAggregator..Feed aggregators work similar to (and are Feed aggregators work similar to (and are usually included in) modern email clients. A feed usually included in) modern email clients. A feed is usually shown as a small orange icon, such as is usually shown as a small orange icon, such as one of the following:one of the following:

Source: wikipedia article “What’s RSS”

50

9999

blogsblogs and and bloggingbloggingBlogBlog (from (from WikipediaWikipedia))

A A weblogweblog or or blogblog (derived from web + log) is a (derived from web + log) is a webweb--based publication consisting primarily of based publication consisting primarily of periodic articles (normally, but not always, in periodic articles (normally, but not always, in

reverse chronological order). Although most early reverse chronological order). Although most early blogsblogs were manually updated, tools to facilitate the were manually updated, tools to facilitate the

updating and maintenance of such sites made updating and maintenance of such sites made them accessible to a much larger and less technical them accessible to a much larger and less technical

population.population.

The use of some sort of The use of some sort of browserbrowser--based software is based software is now a typical aspect of "now a typical aspect of "bloggingblogging."."

100100

Blogging

51

101101

BloggingBlogging -- client software client software an RSS Readeran RSS Reader

One example One example –– PluckPluck(from (from www.pluck.comwww.pluck.com))

102102

from from www.pluck.comwww.pluck.com

52

103103

After adding it to my feed in PluckAfter adding it to my feed in Pluckfrom within Internet Explorerfrom within Internet Explorer

104104

Pluck is accessible from within Internet Explorer

53

105105

Union CollegeUnion College’’s Schaffer Librarys Schaffer Library

106106

Schaffer LibrarySchaffer Library’’s s BlogBlog

54

107107

Meetings (faceMeetings (face--toto--face)face)

OneOne--toto--oneoneOneOne--toto--many (example lecturing to a many (example lecturing to a group)group)ManyMany--toto--manymany

108108

Synchronous CollaborationSynchronous Collaborationfor for ““faceface--toto--faceface”” virtual meetingsvirtual meetings

AudioAudioAudio and videoAudio and video

55

109109

Synchronous CollaborationSynchronous Collaborationfor for ““faceface--toto--faceface”” virtual meetingsvirtual meetings

WhatWhat’’s needed (have pictures)s needed (have pictures)ComputerComputerInternet connection (preferably Internet connection (preferably broadband)broadband)Video cameraVideo cameraHeadset with microphone, or Headset with microphone, or speakers and microphonespeakers and microphoneConferencing softwareConferencing software

110110

An interesting applicationAn interesting application

Combining wireless and the PDACombining wireless and the PDAAugust 3, 2003August 3, 2003

56

111111

Concert CompanionConcert Companionat Saratoga Performing Arts Centerat Saratoga Performing Arts Center

Times-UnionAugust 9, 2003

ANNOUNCEMENT

112112

During the performanceDuring the performance

Information scrolled describing what Information scrolled describing what was taking place was taking place –– in realin real--time as time as performance was happeningperformance was happeningGave hints/information as to what Gave hints/information as to what was coming nextwas coming nextCould have summary or a more Could have summary or a more detailed descriptiondetailed description

57

113113

Increased Access . Increased Access . . .. .

. . . Increased . . . Increased OpportunitiesOpportunities

114114

SarahSarahMorrisMorris

Times-Union8-30-2001Pages C1, C8

www.dodgerplace.com

58

115115

www.dodgerplace.com from July 8, 2004

116116

www.dodgerplace.com from June 8, 2005

59

117117

from www.icanonline.net