Giving Technology 2020 Vision

Gene A. FrantzPrincipal Fellow

Texas Instruments

Giving Technology 2020 Vision

• What will be the market drivers?• What will be the state of the art of IC

technology in 2020?• How will technology enable your

products to be differentiated?

Tightening focus on embedded processing: DSP, MCU . . .

Embedded Processing Revenue

0

1

2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Microcontrollers DSP (non-handset)

$B

• Great future• 20,000+

opportunities• TI will be your

one stop solution

22%CAGR

$30+ billionopportunity

by 2020

2020

Tightening focus on analog

Interface

Power Management

Amplifier

Amplifier

Embedded Processing

DataConverter

DataConverter Logic

Temp.PressurePositionSpeedFlow

HumiditySoundLight

The RealWorld

$B

8%CAGR

$100 billionopportunity

by 2020

Analog Revenue

0

10

20

30

40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Analog

2020

Fast-growing, diversified marketsVideo/Imaging

Automotive

Infrastructure

Industrial

Medical

Yet to be invented

………………

Driving the market to 2020RoboticsGreen

HealthFull immersion

Defining state of the art IC technology for 2020

• Moore’s law• Performance increases • Lower power dissipation • System in package integration• New development environments

Moore’s LawModern CMOS

1 um

100 nm

10 nm

1 nm1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

36 Years of Scaling History

Feature size shrinks by 70% each generation

90 nm in 2004

Generations occur about every 2 to 3 years

65 nm in 2005

Presumed Limitto Scaling

Deep UV Litho

Beginning ofSubmicron CMOS

45 nm in 2007

10 um

• The trend continues– More programmable DSP

cores when generality is important.

– Add optimized programmable coprocessors.

– Use accelerators where the function is more fixed.

• Look for even more programmable DSP cores in the future:

– 6 32 …– Stacking of chips for

increasing integration

Peripherals

DSP

DSP

DSP

DSP

DSP

DSP

Higher-performance through parallelism –More multi-core DSPs + flexible coprocessors

Accelerators

Coprocessors

Achieving performance increases

Analog Interface

Gene’s Law

DSP Power

Mobile Phone

Lower power dissipationm

W/M

MA

Cs

Year

1,000

100

10

1

0.1

0.01

0.001

0.0001

0.00001

Gene's Law:Power

dissipation will decrease by half every

18 months

1982

Power Dissipation

0%

100%

90nm 65nm 45nm 32nm

Pow

er

Active

Standby

Power Consumption

• Lower power dissipation per function will be driven down aggressively –allowing perpetual devices

• Batteries will be, in some cases, replaced with energy scavenging plus energy storage elements

Brain

Energy scavenging

uW/cm3

2010

Roadmap of the future:System in package integration

Chips on Board(COB)

System in Package

(SIP)

System on Chip

(SOC)

Valu

e

Integration

Redefining development environments

Com

munication

Peripherals

HardwareAccelerators

Memory Arch.

SOC Interconnect

Mul

timed

ia

Subs

yste

ms

App. Proc.

DSPProc.

Customer (OEM)Applications

Hardware Abstraction Layer (HAL)

Platform Support Package (PSP)

Multimedia Frameworks and Libraries

Video Audio Imaging Speech

SoCTechnology

Software & Development

Tools

System Level Software• Higher level

language

• Both analog and digital

• A complete knowledge of components in the system

• A comprehension of Amdahl’s law –it will know what parts can be parallelized and what parts can not be

Will incorporate:• Differentiation• Scalable

• Open Platform• Upgradeable• Application-

specific optimization

• Balanced Architecture

• Highly Integrated

• Flexible• Scalable• Faster

Time-to-Market

How 2020 technology will enable customer differentiation

• Power efficiency & programmability• Systems expertise• Total system integration• Software & development environments

How power efficiency will impact end products

• Half the power means – twice the battery life or – half the weight of the battery

• Power dissipation will be reduced by orders of magnitude

• The end goal is the perpetual device

Systems expertise for complete product development

Semiconductor companies will support entire systems, enabling customers to focus on value

added application differentiation

Software & development environments• Software components will

be readily available

• Open Source will be the norm

• Value will be found in the use of software rather than in the software

• New system-aware development environments will make it easier to implement

Achieving Success in 2020

Excitement is just beginningTechnology will not be our limiting itemInnovation will be the key to the future

Giving Technology 2020 Vision

Gene A. FrantzPrincipal Fellow

Texas Instruments