Getting on track for zero emissions Fighting for the Future We Want at the UN Climate Negotiations #ZeroBy2050 #1o5C Contents The package of long-term goals What is the long-term mitigation goal & Why do we need one? Who supports a long-term mitigation goal? Youth and the long-term mitigation goal Opportunities for youth advocacy in Paris A package of long-term goals Mitigation LTG Creates scientific backbone of Agreement by setting the rate of reductions in line with developing science Connects up mitigation & adaptation plans, and informs overall finance budget needs. Adaptation LTG Creates a unifying vision for adaptation globally Helps determine aggregate finance, technology & capacity needs to address national adaptation plans Finance LTG Creates a process for reviewing & scaling up finance in line with changing mitigation & adaptation needs 2015 Paris Agreement Why do we need a long-term mitigation goal? At COP16 governments agreed a 2C limit on warming but this is hard to understand. How do you live a well below 2C life? The latest IPCC report says we must get to zero emissions by 2100 to stay below the 2C limit or earlier by mid century for 1.5C to avoid dangerous climate change Reducing emissions and getting to zero is something we can all contribute to It gives a back-bone to the short-term intended nationally determined contributions (iNDCs) forcing them to get stronger over time (sometimes called the ambition mechanism) Looking long-term puts a flag in the ground that gets everyone (the public, governments, business) heading in the right direction. It will drive innovation and education by giving certainty of the future direction of travel. What is Zero? Some of the ways people have talked about getting on track to zero are: -Decarbonisation -Fossil fuel phase-out, 100% renewables phase-in -100% clean energy100% clean energy -Divestment: go fossil freego fossil free -Carbon neutrality & Climate neutrality -Zero GHG Emissions -Net Zero What the science tells us For a 50% chance of returning maximum temperature rise to 1.5C by 2100: GHG emissions must reach zero by CO2 emissions from fossil fuels must be phased out by 2050 For a 66% chance of staying well below 2C: GHG emissions must be zero by CO2 emissions must be zero between 2060 2075 Analysis from Climate Action Tracker using the same IPCC science found: For an 85% likelihood of meeting 2C: GHG emissions must reach zero between 2060 and 2080 CO2 emissions from energy and industry must reach net zero even earlier to 2065 Summary by Niklas Hohne, based on briefing here:inal.pdf And since then. On the same day as World Meteorological Organisation announced global CO2 concentrations passed 400 parts per million. For the first time, the global temperature was measured at 1.02C above the average temperature in The Nov 2015 UNFCCC Synthesis Report of Aggregate INDCs found the current INDCs would NOT be enough to prevent 2C of warming, they add up to a 2.7C world. If ambition isnt increased before 2030, staying well below 2C will get more difficult and more expensive Who supports the long-term mitigation goal? There is support across the world for getting to zero! Civil society: CAN, Avaaz, Change.org and GCCA; campaigners and activists at the Peoples March Religious communities: the Interfaith Summit, Catholic Bishops, the Dalai Lama & Buddhist Leaders and Islamic leaders from 20 countries Business: We may not always like them, but they do make many of the things we use in our daily lives weve tracked 100 large companies with science-based targets, a net zero target or a 100% renewables target. They also want a LTG from Paris for their investment decisions. Economists: The New Climate Economy Report showed that it can be economically beneficial to get on track to zero nowNew Climate Economy Artists/celebrities: Amazing poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner from the Marshall Islands opened the Climate Summit saying we must end carbon pollution within my lifetime. Leonardo di Caprio then said by 2050, clean, renewable energy could supply 100% of the worlds energy.poet Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner International institutions: The UN has pledged to go carbon neutral and UNEPs emission gap report confirms the world must get to net zero by 2070 at the latest.emission gap report The Worlds Scientists: Scientists have signed the Earth Statement, the IPCC scientists, Climate Action Tracker organisations, and others. Which countries support a long-term mitigation goal? 133 countries support the inclusion of a long-term goal to operationalise the 1.5/2C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement, which looks like this: What do they support exactly? Deep decarbonisation or decarbonisation of the global economy: Brazil, G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA; 28 EU countries; 44 AOSIS countries; Fossil fuel free economy/phase out of emissions: Bahamas, Denmark, Eritrea, Iceland, Mexico, South Africa, Sweden Net zero emissions: 48 LDC countries, Malawi, Marshall Islands, New Zealand, Norway, Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, Sweden, Uganda Climate or Carbon neutrality: Globally: 7 AILAC countries; EU; Finland; Iceland; Norway; Panama Nationally: Armenia; Bhutan; Costa Rica; Ethiopia; Georgia; Guatemala; Burkino Faso; Monaco; Norway; Sierra Leone; Switzerland, Low carbon transformation: Albania; Bangladesh; Cap Verde; China; Saudi Arabia; Swaziland; Find out what they said using our tracking available here: All countries support a long-term temperature limit of 2C 195 countries support 2C Implying phase-out by countries support 1.5C Implying phase-out by 2050 The Power of Youth Young people bring the voice of science and morality We have authority to represent the young people and future generations like us that will be affected by decisions made today Vulnerable countries see us as their allies This is our future you cant argue with that! We stand behind your red lines action, Doha 2012 Why us, why the long-term goal? YOUNGO supports a 1.5C limit on warming its simple, you cant get to 1.5C without going to zero We have a powerful story to tell. Young people everywhere are already reducing emissions on track to zero community energy/food, divestment, education etc This is our opportunity to put our stamp on the Paris agreement by pushing for a long-term goal of Zero By 2050, phasing out emissions from fossil fuels and phasing in renewable energy YOUNGO #ZeroBy2050 Action, Bonn ADP, October 2015 UN MAJOR GROUP FOR CHILDREN & YOUTH, NYC 2015 Where can we fight to get on track to zero in Paris? A long-term goal with an end-date must be in the Paris Agreement in both, or one, of the General/Objective & Mitigation sections. We must fight for the ideal long-term goal equation: Ambitious Formulation 2070 end-date = A good Long-term Goal (Decarbonisation, zero, phase-out) Every country is submitting their INDCs and we have a right to push our country to act in our interest. There is still an opportunity to push for the inclusion of a national long-term goal, and support for an international long-term goal in each INDC. Next Steps Think what demands are critical for our future? Listen who is on our side? Who can we work with? Who can we push further? Organise stay focussed & organise within the YOUNGO LTG working group; use #zeroby2050 for all LTG social media Act be vocal & visual about our demands; be a constant reminder to negotiators of whats at stake Lets do this!