g.e.t smart - smart renewables: areva lawrence jones
TRANSCRIPT
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Lawrence E. Jones
Director, Strategy & Special Projects, Worldwide
AREVA T&D Inc.
Smart Renewables
WITA
May 6, 2010
Seattle, WA
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Focus on:
� The state of the Smart Renewables Industry in Washington
� Predictions for the future of the Smart Renewables Industry
� Business opportunities in the Smart Renewables Industry.
Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
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Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple,
that’s creativity. ~ Charles Mingus, jazz musician
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OLD EQUATIONS - NEW CONTRAINTS
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Understanding the Dynamics of our Time
We are living simultaneously living in the ages of:
� Uncertainty
� Globalization
� Complexity
� Smarts
� Connectedness
� Speed
� Mistrust
� Interface
� Attention Deficit
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Understanding the Dynamics of Change
TechnologyBusiness
Social
Political
Rates of Change
Time
Challenges to Solving Global Crises
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Keys to Smart and Intelligence
�Awareness – Sensing and measurement
�Communicate (Fast or Slow) – Data, Information,
Commands
�Reaction – Actuate and Respond (Fast or Slow)
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Main Problem
How to integrate the basic abilities of awarenessand reaction into a device or system with minimum
cost and complexity, and achieved other goals?
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Increasing the level of intelligence and integrationof information, communication, control technologies
in every of aspects (Generation, Delivery, and Consumption) of the electricity system
Creating a Smart Energy Ecosystem
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Enabling Technologies
Integrated Communications
DecisionSupportSystems
Advanced Control Technologies
Sensing, Metering and Measurement
Advanced Grid Components
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Renewables Energy Resources
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Slide courtesy of Rhys Roth, Climate Solutions
Renewable Projects in the Northwest in 1998
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Slide courtesy of Rhys Roth, Climate Solutions
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GERMANYOffshore substation for the Alpha Ventuswind farm
Areva T&D references across the world
DENMARK – EnerginetDistributed Gen. Management systems
IRELAND – SegnessDynamic Line Rating
EDP HorizonDistributed Gen.
UK – Robin Rigg2 offshore substations & onshore grid connection
FRANCE – RTEWind Gen. Control
FRANCEConversion substation and grid connection of a 7MW solar PV park
FRANCEAreva T&D has connected
30% of the French wind farms
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Energinet.dk (Denmark)RTE (France)EDP (Portugal & Spain)Eirgrid (Ireland)Hawaii (USA)Midwest ISO (USA)
REForecast
Plan
REEstimation
REGeneration
Control &
Dispatch
RENetworkSecurity UI
Points
Modelling
Simulator
Historian
Examples of AREVA Renewable Projects
- Integration with Power Grid Operations
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Predictions the Future -Navigating Uncertainty and Spotting Opportunities
As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it. ~ Antoine de Saint-Exupery, French Aviator
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Global Crises – How to Avert the Perfect Storm?
� Climate Change
� Economy
� Energy
� Food
� Population
� Water
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Global Crises Present Opportunities
Catalyst for Market Transition and Industry Transformation
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The World @ Night in 2009
1.6 billion people lack access to electricityMore than 1 billion people lack access to clean drinking water
3 billion people live on less than $2 per day
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How will the World @ Night look in 20XX?
?? ?
?
??
??
? ?
?
?
?
?
How to Meet the Energy Needs of ?? Billion People in a Sustainable Way?
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Meeting a Common Threat –World Leaders Reacted to the Financial Crisis
… but what about Climate Change?Lawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
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International Race to a Low Carbon Economy
Low
Carbon
Economy
USA
&
Canada
EU
China
&
India
“If they invest in 21st – century technologies and we invest in 20th –century technologies, they will win.” David Sandowlow, Assistant Sec. for Policy &
International Affairs, US Department of Energy. (Washington Post, Oct. 25, 2009
Note: Several other countries have embarked on Smart Grid Initiatives, e.g. Australia, Brazil, New Zealand
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Global Investment in Renewable 2004 - 2008
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Renewable Power Capacities, Developing World, EU and Top Six Countries in 2008
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Energy Trivia
“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we
tackle that?”
Who Said this to Henry Ford whose popular cars were driving up the demand for gasoline
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1931 – Today is May 6, 2010
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Solar PV - Existing World Capacity, 1995 - 2008
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Wind Power - Existing World Capacity, 1996 - 2008
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Policy Matters – The Danish Experience
Denmark - 1980 Denmark – today
2025 Danish Government target :
50 % of gross energy consumption to be supplied from renewable sources
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World Wind Energy in 2008
- Increasing Growth Rates -
579817,3817,31682,86767676,7Australia14
495,27468051754,64397439,7Ireland15
10401309152813233520352Japan13
1224155917471227,44780478The Netherlands12
683146018461128,352302369Canada11
1022171621301034,473202862Portugal10
31283136312561,1353160Denmark9
13531962,92389937,6898,93287,9United Kingdom8
752,215672455838,794934044France7
1718,32123,42726,17371009,93736Italy6
443062707850422,117379587India5
1266259959125106,5629812210China4
10027,91163015145310,51595,216704,3Spain3
18427,52062222247,417.41655,423903,8Germany2
91491160316818,8249,78351,225170USA1
Total Installed Capacity
2005
[MW]
Total Installed Capacity
2006
[MW]
Total Installed Capacity
2007
[MW]
Position 2007
Growth Rate in
2008
[%]
Added Capacity
2008 [MW]
Total Installed Capacity
2008 [MW]
CountryPosition
2008
Source: World Wind Energy Report, 2008. www.wwindea.org
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States Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Source: DSIRE January 2010
ME 30% 2000 10% 2017 in new RE
NH 23.8% 2025
MA 15 % 2020
RI 16 % 2020
NY 24 % 2013
CT 23 % 2020
NJ 22,5 % 2021
MD 20% 2022
DC 20% 2020
WA 15% 2020
OR 25% 2025
CA 20% 2010
NV 20% 2015
NM 20% 2020
AZ 15% 2025
CO 20% 2020
TX 5,880 MW 2015
MT 15% 2015
ND 10% 2015
MN 25% 2025
WI 10% 2015
IL 25% 2025
IA 105 MW
MI 10% 2015
PA 18% 2020
VA 15% 2025
NC 12,5% 2021
VE 20% 2017
SD 10% 2015
UT 20% 2025 KS 20%
2020
HI 40% 2030
WV 25% 2025
29 states & DC have RPS
6 states have goals
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US Wind Power Installation to date (MW)
Source: AWEA Jan 2010
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2009 – A record year for the US Wind Power industry Wind Power
installed capacity (MW)
In 2009 the U.S. wind industry broke all previous records by installing close to 10,000 megawatts of new generating capacity thanks to the Stimulus Plan.
The total installed capacity in the U.S. is now over 35,000 MW
In 2009, 38 manufacturing facilities were brought online, announced or expanded.
As new turbine orders continue to come in slowly (lack of long-term policy + excess in supply), some manufacturing production is running at significantly decreased levels compared to 2008
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Wind Power in Generation Queues (MW)- The Size of this Queue is Indicative of the Future Growth Potential -
Iowa14,569
Minnesota20,011
New Mexico14,136
North Dakota11,493
Penn.3,391
South Dakota30,112
Oklahoma14,677
Illinois16,284
Ohio3,683
Kansas13,191
Wisconsin908
Michigan2,518
WV1,045
New York8,000
VT155
Total 311,155 MW
MA492
Montana2,327
NJ1416
Under 1000 MW 1,000 MW-8,000 MWOver 8,000 MWMissouri
2,050
IN8,426
Maine1,398
NH396
RI347
DE450
MD810
VA820
Arkansas210
Texas63,504
Arizona7,268
California18,629
Colorado16,602
Idaho446
Nebraska3,726
Nevada3,913
Oregon9,361
Utah1,052
Washington5,831
Wyoming7,870
Source: AWEA
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Smart Renewables: UNCERTAINTY = OPPORTUNITIES
Drive and Execute a Focused
Renewable Energy Strategy Climb Up and Shake the Tree of Opportunities
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Overview of the Electric System
More than 100 years Old – But Not Much has Changed in
the Physics and Economics of Operation … Until NowLawrence Jones, WTIA Presentation May 6, 2010 Seattle, WA
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The grid of today
AC
138kV
230kV
400V 400V
13.8kV
500kV
400V
13.8kV 13.8kV
765kV
345kV
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The grid of the future?
AC
DC
600kV / 800 kV
Bulk power import using UHVDC
=~
150kV150kV
=
~
Offshore
wind farm
Onshore wind farm
=
~
BESS
500V
PVFuel Cell
=
=
10kV
=
~
STATCOM
10kV
=
~
STATCOM
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
150kV150kV
50kV 50kV
=
=
=
=
10kV
138kV
230kV
400V 400V
13.8kV
500kV
400V
13.8kV 13.8kV
765kV
345kV
=
=
500V
=
~
PHEV Charging
station
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Understanding the Renewable Energy Landscape
Original Equipment
Manufacturers
Original Equipment
Manufacturers
REDevelopers
REDevelopers
RE Asset Owner
RE Asset Owner RE OperatorsRE Operators
Transmission System
Operator
Transmission System
Operator
Distribution System
Operator
Distribution System
OperatorCustomerCustomer
Some Key issues
• Cost effectiveness
• Reliability
• Controllability
• Efficient regulatory and EPC risks management
• Sound decision-making process
• Cost effectiveness
• ROCE maximization
• Generation mix optimization
• CO2 emissions quota compliance
• Reliability
• Controllability
• Supervision
• Generation portfolio optimization
• Energy generation accounting (certificates)
• Energy storage
• Reliability
• Controllability
• On-line stability calculation
• Look-ahead analysis
• What-if scenarios
• Network planning
• Reliability
• Controllability
• What-if scenarios
• Network planning
• Disaster recovery
• Green certificates accounting
• CO2 emissions quota compliance
• Energy efficiency action plans
• Energy storage / back-up source
• DERs
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Decision Support SystemsVisualization
Reliability & Economics
Asset Utilization
System and DataIntegration
Systems Variability
Training & Knowledge Retention
System Controllability& Observability
System Issues Related to Renewable Energy Integration
Demand Response & Energy Storage
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