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GeschGeschääftsentwicklungftsentwicklungTechnische KunststoffeTechnische Kunststoffe
StrategiegesprStrategiegespräächch TecPartTecPartLudwigshafen, 17. November 2010Ludwigshafen, 17. November 2010Willy BertWilly Bert HovenHoven--NievelsteinNievelstein, Engineering Plastics Europe, Engineering Plastics Europe
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BASF at a glance
BASF –The Chemical Company
Chemistry is about every aspect of life.
We are connected to deliverintelligent and sustainable solutions.
Sales 2009: €50,693 mill.
EBIT 2009: €3,677 mill.
Employees (December 31, 2009):104,779
About 1,300 new patents filed
6 Verbund sites and about 380production sites
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BASF SegmentsC
hem
icals
Pla
sti
cs
PerformancePolymers
Polyurethanes
Crop Protection Oil & Gas
Perf
orm
an
ce
Pro
du
cts
Paper Chemicals
Dispersions& Pigments
Care Chemicals
PerformanceChemicals
Inorganics
Petrochemicals
IntermediatesF
un
cti
on
al
So
luti
on
s
ConstructionChemicals
Coatings
Catalysts
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
So
luti
on
s
Oil
&G
as
Styrolution(01.01.2011)
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BASF Group:Sales by segment 2009
BASFGroup
Million € (change compared with previous year)
Chemicals
7,515 (-32.7%)
Plastics
7,128 (-21.8%)
Performance Products
9,356 (+15.2%)
Oil & Gas
11,356 (-21.4%)
Agricultural Solutions
3,646 (+7.0%)
Functional Solutions
7,115 (-24.2%)
Other
4,577 (-31.2%)
22.4%
7.2%
14%
9%
18.5%
14.1%
14.8%
50,693
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BASF Group: Sales by region 2009by location of customer
BASFGroup
Million € (Change compared with previous year)
North America
9,423 (-21%)
South America,
Africa, Middle East
4,032 (-8%)
Europe
28,532 (-22%)
Asia Pacific
8,706 (-7%)
56.3%
17.2%8%
18.6% 50,693
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BASF sales by customer industry*
* Distribution by direct customers of BASF
Percentage of sales in 2009
> 15%
10-15%
< 5%
5-10%
10-15%
Chemicals
Automotive /
Construction / Utilities
Agriculture /
Plastics industry / Oil industry
Electrical/Electronics /
Furniture / Paper
Other industries
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BASF how we achieve value-addinggrowth
We earn a premium onour cost of capital
We help our customersto be more successful
We ensuresustainable development
We form the bestteam in industry
+
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BASF Group:Sales and Earnings
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sales
Income from
operations (EBIT)
50.7
3.7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Billion €
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RBU Engineering PlasticsNAFTA
Wyandotte, USAGVP: Larry Berkowski
Division Head: Wolfgang Hapke, Ludwigshafen
GBU Polyamide & Intermediates, Ludwigshafen, GermanyGVP: Udo Bergmann
GBU Foams, Ludwigshafen, GermanyGVP: Giorgio Greening
GBU Specialty Plastics, Ludwigshafen, GermanyDirector: Robert Heger
RBU Engineering PlasticsEurope
Ludwigshafen, GermanyGVP: Willy Hoven-Nievelstein
RBU Engineering PlasticsAsia Pacific
Singapore, SingaporeGVP: Hermann Althoff
Performance Polymers – OrganizationThree global and three regional business units
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BASF Verbund SegmentsBASF Performance Polymers
Electrical &Electronics
Automotive
Universal
Polyamide 6.6
Caprolactam
Adipic acid
Polyamide 6
Trioxan POM
PBT
PES/PSU
CP: Cyclohexane
HMD
Compounds
DHDPS
Engineering Plastics KTEValue Chains KT
Compounds
Compounds
Engineering Plastics (KTE)
CZ: Butanediol .
DCDPS
DMT, PTA
External
Polyamide & Intermediates (G-KTI)
Compounds
Compounds
ADN CP: Butadiene .
CA: Formaldehyde
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EngineeringPlastics
SpecialtyPlastics
FoamsPolyamide &Intermediates
PS FoamsStyropor®
Neopor®
Styrodur® CPeripor®
Specialty FoamsBasotect®
Neopolen®
BiodegradablePolymersEcoflex®
Ecovio®
Further productsPalatal®
Palusol®
Polyamide 6.6Ultramid® A
Polyamide 6Ultramid® B
Polyamide 6.66Ultramid® C
Adipic Acid
Caprolactam
Hexamethylendiamine
Performance Polymers KTProductportfolio
PA CompoundsUltramid® A, B, C, TMiramid®, Capron®
PBTUltradur®
POMUltraform®
PESU/PSU/PPSUUltrason® E, S, P
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Performance Polymers KT
Production, Technical Centers andOffices in All Regions
Antwerp
Freeport
Kuantan
Shanghai
Wyandotte
Sparta
Altamira
LeunaSchwarzheideRudolstadt
PasirGudang
GreaterNagoya
Hong Kong
Singapore
AnsanBudd LakeFlorhamPark
Ulsan
Sao Paulo
Guaratinguetá
Santiago
Mexico City
Nanjing
Tudela
Buenos AiresConcon
Thane
Bibbiano
Production
TechnicalCenters
OfficesGeneral Lagos
LU
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Rhodia
Ticona
Solvay
DuPont
DuPont
Sabic
DuPont
Sabic
European market position of maincompetitors in Engineering Plastics2008 (ranking)
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Strategiegespräch TecPartAgenda
Geschäftsentwicklung
Trends
Chancen und Risiken
Materialverfügbarkeit
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Plastics Production in the World
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mio Tons
2009: 230
1989: 100
1976: 50
1950: 1,5
2002: 200
1985: 50
2009: 55
Europe :(WE und CE)
24,0 %
Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG)
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Total consumption ~ 4 Mio. Tons in 2007 (pre crisis year)
Regional Market DistributionEngineering Plastics* (PA, PBT, POM, aHTT)
* Inj. Molding
NAFTA
19%
Asia
40%
Europe
37%
ROW
4%
aHTT
1%
PA
65%POM
17%
PBT
17%
aHTT
3%
PA
60%
POM
17%
PBT
20%
PBT
26%
POM
30%PA
43%
aHTT
1%
ROW4%
Asia is the largest market forEngineering plastics !
Europe remains still thelargest market for Polyamide !
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Plastics Demand EuropeEngineering Plastics* (PA, PBT, POM, aHTT)
* Inj. molding
Demand decreased by approximately 30% iduring the crisis
~ -30%
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
PA
PBT
POMaHTT
Only in 2013 the pre crisis level will be reached again
Estimated point in time to beBack on pre crisis levels:
- PA: 2014- PBT: 2010- POM: 2012- aHTT: almost no decline
Source: PCI, AMI, BASF
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Development of Regional Demand in EuropeAll Plastics (2007 – 2009)
Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG)
● 2009 ● 2008 ● 2007
WESTERS EUROPE:- All plastics:~ -15%- Eng. Plastics: ~ -30%
Eastern Europe (EU12 neu):- Almost no decline !
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Ifo Geschäftsklima DeutschlandGewerbliche Wirtschaft
Dotcom Blaseplatzt
Pleite vonLehmannBrothers
Index “Beurteilung der Geschäftslage” folgt der Nachfrage(von 2006 bis 2008 verschlechterte sich bereits das Wirtschaftsklima spürbar !)
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JD PowerEstimated European Light Vehicle Assembly
Light Vehicle: passenger car plus light commercial vehicles < 6t Eastern Europe: including Russia and Turkey
In 2010 ~ 4 Mio. cars less will be built compared to pre crisis levels!
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ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers Association)
New Passenger Car Registration Europe
Growth in Automitive is currently heavily driven by exports to Asia andthe US
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Business Development in the E/E-IndustryZVEI - Zentralverband Elektrotechnik- und Elektronikindustrie e.V.
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Kunststoffindustrie DeutschlandProduktionsentwicklung
Die Konjunktur in der Kunststoff-industrie in Deutschland hat sich seitFrühsommer 2009 wieder deutlich erholt.Der kräftige Aufschwung aus den Vor-monaten, hat auch im Verlauf des drittenQuartals 2010 angehalten.
Erzeuger (Kunststoffe in Primärform)Die kräftige Erholung der Produktion setztsich fort. Die mengenmäßige Produktionhat inzwischen wieder das Vorrezessions-niveau erreicht.
Verarbeitung von KunststoffenDer deutliche Aufschwung führte dazu,dass das Vorrezessionsniveau fast wiedererreicht wurde.
MaschinenbauDie konjunkturelle Erholung hat sich seitdem letzten Quartal 2009 mit deutlichenZuwächsen im Auftragseingang bemerk-bar gemacht. Auch die Produktion zogallerdings später als bei den Erzeugernund Verarbeitern wieder an. Seit Jahres-beginn 2010 geht es wieder kräftig auf-wärts. Der Rückgang im deutschenMaschinenbau war - von einem Rekord-niveau ausgehend - deutlich stärker alsbei Erzeugern und Verarbeitern, ebensoist die Erholung nun stärker ausgeprägt.
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Produktionsindex(2005 = 100, Trendzyklus, monatlich)
Kunststoffe in Primärform
Verarbeitung von Kunststoffen
Kunststoffmaschinen
Quelle: Destatis / Arbeitskreis Marktforschung WVK
Aktueller Datenstand: 08/2010
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KunststoffindustrieProduktionsentwicklung Deutschland und EU27
Die Kunststoffindustrie in Europa ist aufdem Weg der Erholung, allerdings ist dieDynamik spürbar langsamer als inDeutschland.
Die Kunststoffindustrie in Deutschlandist bei Erzeugern, Verarbeitern undMaschinenbauern zur Zeit die Lokomotivein Europa.
Der Produktionsanstieg ist bei denErzeugern stärker ausgeprägt als bei denVerarbeitern, was auch auf positivelagerzyklische Einflüsse zurückzuführenist.
Umgekehrt war in der Rezession derProduktionsrückgang bei den Erzeugernstärker als bei den Verarbeitern.
Auch der Maschinenbau zeigt einedeutliche Aufwärtsentwicklung, wobeiauch hier Deutschland als Lokomotivefungiert.
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Produktionsindex(2005 = 100, Trendzyklus, monatlich)
Kunststoffe in Primärform (D)
Kunststoffe in Primärform (EU27)
Verarbeitung von Kunststoffen (D)
Verarbeitung von Kunststoffen (EU27)
Kunststoffmaschinen (D)
Kunststoffmaschinen (EU27)
Quelle: Destatis / Arbeitskreis Marktforschung WVK
Aktueller Datenstand: 08/2010
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Strategiegespräch TecPartAgenda
Geschäftsentwicklung
Trends
Chancen und Risiken
Materialverfügbarkeit
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Demand by Regions 2007 Demand by Regions 2015e
w/o Other Plastics (40 to 45 Mio t) w/o Other Plastics (~50 Mio t)
CAGR: 5.0%
215 Mio t 330 Mio t
Source: PlasticsEurope Market Research Group (PEMRG)
World Plastics Materials Demand
NAFTA
22.0%
Latin
America
5.0%
Europe
(WE + CE)
22.5%
Middle
East,
Africa
6.0%
CIS
3.0%
Japan
5.0%
China
22.0%
Rest of Asia
14.5%
.
NAFTA
19.0%Latin
America
5.0%
Europe
(WE + CE)
21.0%Middle
East,
Africa
6.0%
CIS
4.0%
Japan
4.0%
China
25.0%
Rest of Asia
16.0%
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-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Growth above BIPEngineering Plastics* (PA, PBT, POM, aHTT)
* Inj. Molding
2010 2020
Source: BASF
2005 2007
BIP (EU27) TK (EU27)
3.8% p.a.
2.0% p.a.
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ProfitabilityContinued pressure on margins
The business with Engineering plastics was heavily hit by the crisis(> -40%). Polyamide was hit the most
DEngineering Plastics producers were already impacted before thecirisis because margins were already eaten up by increased rawmaterial cost. Additional capacities were delayed respectively notbuilt at all.
Raw materials price (PA/PBT/POM precursor) most probably willfurther increase in 2011, which will lead to additional marginpressure.
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Focus on InnovationProduct Developments
~ 1980s high performance polymers „will rule the world“
~ 1990s “blends are the solution”
~ 2000s “New Polymere” (Questra® ,Carylon®)
~ 2010s smart building blocks, smart blends, functional & nanoadditives and specialties
Fazit:
New polymere will only be successful in niche areas
Existing polymers will be modified to fulfill market requirements
(including polymere on renewable resources).
Producers will differentiate increasingly through spezialities
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€New Application
(metal replacement,new markets like solar energy …)
New / improved Products(e.g. High Speed, FR, UV resistent,
High Strength, High Heat …)
New Production process(e.g. Pulltrusion for LGF ...)
Engineering Plastics KTE
Key elements to create value for thecustomer and BASF
New Processing Technology(Dolphin, direct metallization,Selective Laser Sintering ...)New Simulation and
testing methods(UltrasimTM, topological optimization ...)
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Strategic Business Development alongMegatrends
MEGATRENDS
Globalization &Developing Markets
UrbanizationGrowing & agingPopulation
Energy Demand& Climate Protection
Individualisation
Health &Nutrítion
Living &Construction
Energy &Resources
Mobility &Communication
Mobility &Lifestyle
Influence on our business ? Find the most promising opportunities !
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Energy DemandResources& ClimateProtection
GrowingRaw Material
Demand
Description
Demandfor Water
Increase ofEnergy demandand efficiency
CleanEnvironment
ResponsibleCare
Challenge
New EnergiesEnergy Storage& Distribution
Public & RuralWater Supply
Affordable,efficient useof material
Eco-efficientProducts
Bio PolymersHeat storage …
Business Development
BatteriesEnergy
Distribution NetGreen Powertrain
Solar energy
Water treatmentWater
InfrastructureDesalination
MiningOil- and Gas-Exploration
Sea-Application
Megatrends Drive Innovations
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Bio-Based PolyamidesÖko-Efficiency-Portfolio
Base Case:
Production, Useand Disposal of atypical air intakemanifold (AIM)for a passengercar over adistance of200.000 km
From an ecological point of view PA6.6 and PA5.10represent the lower performing alternatives.
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Performance Polymers KT
From Commodities to Specialties
High
Low
Productioncosts
Productcharacteristics
PC
Polyamide
PPO
PMMA
PS
PP
EPS construction
ABS
POM
PBT
PUR specialties
ASA
PUR basic products
EPSpackaging
PEPVC
Circle size = consumption
KT products
Price mainlydetermined by ...
Differen-tiationpotentialin themarket
Standardproducts
Specialties
PET(bulk)
SAN
SBC
aHTTP*
*e.g. PSU; PES
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Trends Engineering PlasticsProduction
Compounds
Compounding where the customers are – issue countrieswith yet small markets
Balance between large scale compounders and flexiblemarket reaction
Polymers
Balance between large scale production of polymers andflexible prodcution units
Regional complexity – access to raw materials and energyvs. access to markets
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Trends in the Engineering PlasticsIndustry - Summary
Engineering Plastics will continue to grow above GDPs
Additional growth will be generated through the contribution ofEP to solutions for climate change and resource issues
A further shift „East“ will happen
Standardization of plastics will increase, but valuedifferentiation will become more important at the same time(Innovations)
Large Companies will further globalize
The need for cost leadership will reduce the number ofsuppliers
New polymers will only be successful in niche areas
Mobility, E/E and packaging will drive further growth
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Strategiegespräch TecPartAgenda
Geschäftsentwicklung
Trends
Chancen und Risiken
Materialverfügbarkeit
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0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
PA
66
Dem
and
inM
ioto
/a
Kapazitäten in der PolyamidWertschöpfungskette sind genügendvorhanden
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
PA
6D
em
and
inM
ioto
/a
Film
EP
Staple
Carpet
Industrial
Textile
Film
EP
Staple
Carpet
Industrial
Textile
Source: PCI
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Engineering Plastics KTE
Future Challenges
Margin development
Portfolio shifts / regional transfers
Return on investment (assets)
Retun on projects (new application developments)
Technology develpment („Plastics“ / „Parts“)
Business modells
People
Government regulations
Public opinion
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Strategiegespräch TecPartAgenda
Geschäftsentwicklung
Trends
Chancen und Risiken
Materialverfügbarkeit
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Supply situation 2010 for manyproducts worldwide
Supply situationSupply situation
Delivery
Plant availability
Inventory
Demand vs. planning
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Inventory LevelsThe Plastics industry was hit very hard in 2008 by theeconomic crisis
Strong business decline from January to December 2008 (e.g. for Eng.Plastics in BASF – 67%)
Order entry almost stalled in Q4
Return of business in Q1 – Q2 2009 to a level of ~ 75 %
Reduction of production volumesReduction of inventory levels down to safety stocks only
In 2009 the economic outlook remained weak
Production priority: Products made to order !
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Cautious ForecastThe economic recovery was better than expected
The growth forecast of our customers for 2010 was in therange of +10 % (compared to a minus 25% level in H2/20009 vs. H1/2008)
Continued low production volumesContinued low inventory levelsLow forecast for precursors (raw materials, additives, glass fibers, etc.)
In Q1/2010 demand increased by around 35%
Safety stocks were quickly depletedZero inventory levelsBased on low forecasts shortage of precursors(raw materials, additives, glass fibers, etc.)
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Plant availabilityExample: BASF Engineering Plastics in Europe in 2009
Capacity utilization in compounding down to 25%
Polymerization running at 40 % utilization rate
Risk analysis to run polymerization at low utilization rates
Production conditions in 2009:
Start-up conditions in 2009/10:
Shifts in operational working points led to malfunctions(mass balances, volume flows, pressures, temperatures)
Production change over increases to serve customerdemands = capacity loss
Unforeseen technical problems
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Supply situation 2010 for many productsworldwide
Supply situationSupply situation
Delivery
Plant availability
Inventory
Demand vs. planning
~ 0
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Compounds - different additives,pigments, glass fibers
Polyamide 66 - polymer precursors
PBT - butanediol
POM - polymer
Polyamide 6 - caprolactam
Product availability issues inEngineering Plastics
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Materialknappheit und ihreEntwicklung
Start up issues (HMD-production are resolved)
Supply contracts optimized (utilization of two C4-based-suppliers)
Polymer demand covered via 2nd source (C3) (~ 10%)
Polymer availability will remain tight in the market
Polyamide 66
Impact modifier(wax – additives)
Production issues resolved/production structuresoptimized
Force Majeure expected to be lifted in Q4
Product development initiated to provide technicalalternatives
Other additives(e.g. glass, pigments, )
Raw material availability will remain tight in the industrydue to increased production changes but also due todemand beyond previous years (halogene-free flame retardants)
Overall product availability will improve in Q4 2010
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