georgetown sfs - chevron fdi risk in emerging markets strategy
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FDI Risk Strategy: How Past
Experiences Shape Future Investments
FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Aaron Easlick, Michael Edeke, Patrick Ottenhoff
Presented April 19, 2012
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
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Emerging Markets
Chevron is an integrated energy company that generates most profit from upstream operations. Oil and gas industry is increasingly dominated by national oil companies in recent years, forcing independent ones to explore riskier areas. With strong financial health relative to its private peers, Chevron has more appetite for risk.
Chevron successfully entered this market in 1993 after independence. Chevron operates in largest oil fields , owns 50% stake in Tengizchevroil with the Kazakh state. Major voids: lack of pipeline capacity, shortage of skilled engineers and few domestic suppliers.
Severely underdeveloped state that has been ruled by a military government since 1976. Chevron operates JV with Exxon and owns a pipeline running through Chad and Cameroon. Major voids: poor distribution networks, insolvent banks, and unpredictable legal institutions.
Newly-‐independent nation with significant oil reserves; Asian companies investing quickly. Major voids: Limited financial intermediaries, nonexistent physical infrastructure, political and legal institutions are young and unproven.
Case Study #1: Kazakhstan
Appetite for Risk
Case Study #2: Chad
Business Case: South Sudan
Based on Kazakh and Chad experiences, and voids in South Sudan, we do not recommend that Chevron lead exploration in South Sudan at this time.
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
Vertically-‐integrated energy company with exploration, production and refining operations worldwide
Production of 2.67bn barrels of oil each day
$198.81bn market cap
2nd largest U.S. oil company 3rd largest private oil
company worldwide 19th largest oil company
worldwide
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Chevron Overview
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20
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60
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Upstream Downstream $, billions
Revenue
Income
27% profit margin
1% profit margin Upstream production is considerably
more profitable than downstream operations
87% of $20bn capex budget is directed to upstream, 11% in downstream, 2% other
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Industry Overview: Rise of NOCs
77% of total worldwide resources are under the control of national oil companies (NOCs) with no equity participation by foreign, international oil companies (IOCs). Western IOCs now
control less than 10% resource base.
14 of the top 20 upstream
companies in the world are now NOCs.
This trend has forced
the IOCs to explore increasingly risky areas.
IOCs: better technology, are more efficient, more profitable.
NOCs, 77% IOCs 10%
JVs 13%
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Industry Overview: Leading the IOCs Chevron (CVX, +131%) outperforming rivals IOCs in last decade
Running profitable operation, but slightly lower ROE Strong financials indicate CVX is in safer position to accept risk
Company PEG Profit Margin
ROE D/E Credit Rating
Chevron (CVX) 1.33 11.0% 24% 0.08 AA BP (BP) 1.38 8.0% 25% 0.40 A Exxon (XOM) 1.47 9.5% 27% 0.11 AAA
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Upstream overview
32% Asia 25% USA 18% Africa 15% Americas 8% Europe 5% Australia 22% OPEC
Chevron maintains a geographically-‐balanced upstream portfolio and is hedged
However, Chevron has entered or explored most top targets around the globe and will increasingly be forced to consider riskier areas.
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
1. Political concerns First and foremost, Chevron cannot enter a country if it is not open for business or if markets are closed due to war or sanctions. Iran (sanctions) and Iraq (war) are good recent examples.
2. Geological conditions Chevron must also conduct a cost analysis of production in certain geological conditions (see Slide 10). For example, deepwater and oil sands are considerably more expensive to extract and refine, and therefore are less profitable.
3. Presence of Competitors Presence of IOCs: A market cornered by ExxonMobil or Royal Dutch Shell will be less attractive for Chevron. However, Chevron sometimes invites competitors to join projects to spread risk. Presence of NOCs: Chevron is increasingly confronting NOCs not only in their home markets, but also abroad. PetroChina, for example, is heavily invested in Africa. In many cases, Chevron is forced to enter JVs with NOCs
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Foreign Market Strategy
Before Chevron enters a foreign market, it must conduct a profitability study that encompasses the following three major conditions:
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Business case for going on-‐shore
$-‐
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
High Estimate
Low or StatedEstimate
Onshore More Profitable
Offshore, Sands Less Profitable
Red denotes costs stated in Chevron 10-‐k / Blue denotes analyst estimates
Onshore production is more profitable than offshore, ceteris paribus. In Nigeria, for example, offshore production ($30/barrel) is twice as expensive as onshore ($15/barrel) Private operations are almost always more productive than any NOC-‐affiliated operation. In Kazakhstan, it costs the private firm $10-‐$12/barrel and the NOC $15-‐$18/barrel.
Prod
uctio
n cost per barrel
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Importance of analyzing risk
Examples of Risks -‐ Major enviro. lawsuit (operational/political): Chevron fined by courts in Ecuador for $9.5bn for enviro. damage
-‐ Oil spill (operational): Brazilian prosecutors are demanding $10.6bn for an offshore spill
-‐ Windfall taxes (political): Chad imposed
$280mm unanticipated taxes on Chevron
-‐ Expropriation (political): Argentina unexpectedly
Respol; company demands $10.5bn in compensation
Legend
Y-‐axis = frequency and likelihood of a given risk.
X-‐axis = severity and impact of a given risk.
Together, the size of the bubble indicates how potentially consequential a given risk could be.
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
Kazakhstan
Proven Success in an Emerging Market: This is an example of Chevron experiencing sustained success in an emerging market Entered Immediately After Independence: Chevron entered this market as soon as it was opened (1993), similar to the experience with S. Sudan and its independence Experience Working with State: Chevron was the lead IOC in several projects and consortiums involving NOC investors
Chad
Geography and Geology: Chad is close to S. Sudan, with a similar climate and similar geographical and geological obstacles Similar Institutional Voids: Like S. Sudan, Chad is extremely underdeveloped and has considerable institutional voids
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Case Studies: Kazakhstan and Chad
Analysis of Kazakhstan
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Overview of Chevron in Kazakhstan
Key Facts about Chevron in Kazakhstan
Chevron operates in the two largest oil fields in Kazakhstan. It has a 50% stake in Tengizchevroil (TCO) a JV with the Kazakh NOC which operates the Tegiz field the deepest operating super giant oil field in the world, and a 20% stake in the
nd largest oil field.
Chevron extracts approximately 291,000 barrels of oil a day with plans to increase its total output by up to 150,000 barrels a day. Chevron is the largest private stake holder in the CPC pipeline, the largest capacity pipeline that connects Kazakhstan's oil fields to ports on the Caspian Sea.
Chevron is the largest IOC in Kazakhstan and was the first private oil company to enter the country after Kazakhstan declared its independence from the Soviet Union; it entered Kazakhstan in 1993.
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
Capital Markets1 Product Markets Labor Markets
Credibility Enhancement
Financial and legal statements are not easily accessible.
No universal audit standards
Local/Global agencies/companies rarely rate quality of suppliers
.
Information Analysis
Credit Risk Agencies are virtually non-‐existent
No Major Voids Exist for Oil & Gas Industry
Independent aggregators of career and employee information are not present
Aggregation and Distribution
Insurance receipts total .7% of GDP versus 8.6% in OECD countries. accommodate full upstream
production capacity. Low quality domestic suppliers.
Most universities are inadequately equipped and produce poorly qualified
Engineers
Transaction Facilitation
Equity markets are very undercapitalized
No Major Voids Exist for Oil & Gas Industry
Services that place workers with employers are fractured and
underdeveloped
Regulation and Public Institutions
Similar to OECD institutions, however, lack of training and corruption are
prevalent
Burdensome regulations and taxes on importing/exporting of goods make trading across borders very difficult
Multiple agencies exist to regulate workers rights, health, and
discrimination, however, corruption hinders mission statements
Adjudication The processes to enforce financial
contracts is significantly slower than in OECD countries.
Government has the right to break and alter any energy contract with an IOC
Labor law courts exist and operate to some level of satisfaction, however,
corruption can skew and delay outcomes
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Institutional Void Matrix for Kazakhstan
Source: World Bank ROSC Kazakhstan, TrustLaw, BMI Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Sector Report
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Political System & Openness in Kazakhstan
FDI in Kazakhstan in $ Billions
Since 1993 when Chevron first entered Kazakhstan, political stability has remained steady and openness has
situation still presents foreign companies with numerous hurdles.
Transparency International Corruption Index (1 very corrupt, 9 very transparent)
OPENNESS + The Government has made ascension into the WTO a top economic priority, actively pursuing necessary reforms since 1997. -‐ Trading across borders is difficult with import/export costs and time 3x greater than OECD countries.
POLITICAL SYSTEM + Since 2010 the government has stepped up enforcement of business contracts. -‐ Corruption remains a major concern and cost to doing business in the country with transparency levels far below OECD countries.
Sources: World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report, WTO, UNESCAP
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Major voids in Kazakhstan
While Chevron is forced to deal with numerous institutional and infrastructural voids in Kazakhstan, three of the
VOID POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS POTENTIAL YEARLY IMPACT ON GROSS INCOME
Product Market Distribution: Lack of pipeline capacity
Unless pipeline capacity is increased, Chevron would not be able to adequately increase production.
$ 4.90 Billion
Labor Market Distribution: Shortage of skilled engineers
The lack of qualified engineers
launch new projects while managing current operations.
$1.80 Billion
Product Market Distribution: Few quality domestic suppliers
Kazakhstan ranks 176/183 for transporting across borders. Any equipment failure or supply shortage could cause significant operation delays for Chevron.
$0.47 Billion
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How Chevron is Addressing Major Voids in Kazakhstan
Chevron has actively worked to address the voids described on the previous slide by typically trying to mitigate the potential for future disruptions to its operations, although in some cases Chevron appears to retain the risk.
VOID Type of Risk HOW CHEVRON IS ADDRESSING THE VOIDS
Pipeline Capacity
Operational Mitigation -‐-‐ Chevron is working with a consortium of IOCs and NOCs to expand the capacity of the CPC pipeline by nearly 100%. The total cost of the pipeline expansion will be roughly $5.4 billion.
Shortage of Engineers
Operational Mitigation/Transfer -‐-‐ Chevron spent $40 million over the past few years in Kazakhstan to help universities better trained managers and engineers for the oil industry. However, the company increasingly relies on operating contractors in its TCO operations (largest oil field in Kazakhstan)
Shortage of Quality Suppliers in the Country
Operational Mitigation -‐-‐ Since 2005 Chevron has actively supported the development of Kazakhstan suppliers by establishing preferred local supplier programs that encourage quality production and then rewarding them over $1.6 billion in business a year.
Analysis of Chad
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Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
Chad is a central African state comprised of Saharan desert in the north and Sahel in the south Current regime is a military government that has ruled since 1979 Chevron has two major projects in Chad:
The Doba oil fields Chad-‐Cameroon oil pipeline
With ExxonMobil, Petronas, and the World Bank, Chevron has invested $7 billion since 2000 in the Doba oil-‐field
Consists of 2 pumping stations, a pressure reduction station, and a floating storage and offloading vessel Crude pumped in Chad is transported through a 665-‐mi pipeline to the Atlantic coast off Cameroon
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Overview of Chevron in Chad
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
Capital Markets Product Markets Labor Markets
Credibility Enhancement
None; there is zero coverage of private bureaus
Void Virtually no local product standards
Technical certification from abroad is available
Information Analysis
Limited no major credit rating agencies
Limited product markets are not developed but there are cell
press
Void Majority of workforce is in subsistence agriculture. Semi-‐skilled
Aggregation and Distribution
Severely Limited the World Bank financed portion of major
pipeline
Void Product market is fragmented and is focused on
basic subsistence goods
Vocational Center of opened in 2011
Union of Trade Unions is a center
Transaction Facilitation
Void underdeveloped financial intermediaries
Lack of banking infrastructure. Little physical infrastructure, less
than 400 mi of paved roads
Void skilled labor must be imported; unskilled labor market
opaque
Regulation and Public Institutions
Void Public banks have negative equity and
Limited College de Control et de Surveillance des Resources is
nearly powerless
Void Government has limited capacity to track workforce or
conditions
Adjudication Direct conflict resolution through the executive branch with no
independent judiciary
Poor, contract enforcement costs on-‐average 45% of the total claim Little judicial infrastructure
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Institutional Void Matrix for Chad As a failed state, Chad has a dearth of physical and institutional infrastructure that has exacerbated its status as one of the most difficult places in the world to do business. Underdeveloped capital markets in
particular prove to be an obstacle to doing business.
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Political System & Openness in Chad
Source: Roy May and Simon Massey (March, 1999) Chad: Social, Political and Economic Situation WriteNet Country Papers, Refworld, UNHCR.
Chad is a failed state under the control of the autocratic Idris Deby since 1979. The development of its oil resources in a joint-‐venture with ExxonMobile, Petronas and the World Bank was supposed to grant the government revenues
with which it could pay for human development projects that have not materialized.
OPENNESS + A member of the African Union and the government was amenable to stipulations formulated by the World Bank on how oil production revenues were to be spent on development -‐ The government has ignored the milestones and has been stabilized by the influx of weapons and armed soldiers from the Arab Spring.
POLITICAL SYSTEM + Presidential elections for a presidential term of five-‐years have been held since 1996 -‐ Corruption is endemic to the system and Deby has been the only winner. The entire judiciary is appointed by the president and in 2006 he had to fend off an attempted coup by rival military leaders.
Chad by International Rankings
183rd
168th out of 182 on Transparency
163rd out of 169 on the Human Development Index
4 out of 10 on Foreign Investment Index (China is 7.5)
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Major voids in Chad
While Chevron is forced to deal with numerous institutional and infrastructural voids in Chad, three of the voids
VOID POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS
IMPACT ON TOTAL VALUE OF CHAD OPERATIONS
Product Market Aggregation and Distribution Deterioration of product distribution network
Pipeline infrastructure deterioration reduces the amount of commercially viable oil shipped through Cameroon to the Atlantic Coast.
$1.3 Billion w/ a 25% increase in operating costs
Capital Markets Adjudication No formal method of resolving financial contract disputes
Inability to settle financial disputes with government has led to unverifiable charges in the form of
oil producers.
$245 Million to settle a 2006 claim for windfall
taxes of 40% of operating income
Capital Markets Aggregation and Distribution Inefficient local banking sector
Insolvency of local banks could increase capital costs by forcing Chevron to finance through other intermediaries farther afield.
$861 Million w/ a 200 basis point increase in cost
of capital
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How Chevron address Chad voids
Chevron has actively worked to address the voids described on the previous slide by typically trying to mitigate the potential for future disruptions to its operations, although in some cases Chevron appears to retain the risk.
VOID TYPE OF RISK
Product Market Aggregation and Distribution
Operational Transfer Activity in Chad by the China National Petroleum Corporation is expected to produce 60,000 b/d of crude and is building a refinery at .
Capitals Market Adjudication
Company Specific Mitigation In a 2006 tax dispute with the central government Chevron at first chose withdrawal, then paid a reduced sum of $280 MM USD for its tax charge. How the tax accrued in the first place and regular payment mechanisms are not readily available.
Capital Markets Aggregation and Distribution
Financial Mitigation/Transfer Used World Bank and IFC loans for the initial capital construction and sources capex and working capital needs from outside the country.
Analysis of South Sudan
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Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
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Business case for South Sudan
south
The area highlighted in blue represents the Suds Province, a geographical region that spans Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, and CAR. Approximately
40% of this region lies in the newly formed state of South Sudan
In September of 2011 the US Treasury eased restrictions on US oil companies seeking to do business in South Sudan sanctions placed on Sudan for terrorist activities in 1997 previously kept US firms from operating in the region. The South Sudanese government has indicated its desire to lure Western oil companies into the country in order to diversify from its dependence on Chinese NOCs and capital and to help with future exploration. Sud Province which spans Chad, Central African Republic, Sudan and South Sudan has 7 billion barrels of unexplored oil reserves. Approximately 40% of the
Financial Opportunity for Chevron
2.8bil reserves x 15% =
420mil barrels
420mil barrels x $100/barrel =
$42bil in Revenue
$42bil in Revenue x 27% profit margin =
$11.4bil in Net Income
Assumptions: $100/barrel spot price, similar market share for new oil production in S. Sudan as current market share in Chad 15%, profit margin on par with data provided in 2010 10k
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Institutional void matrix for South Sudan
Capital Markets1 Product Markets Labor Markets
Credibility Enhancement Void must use outside resources There are no government or 3rd party
entities that certify local suppliers Virtually no certification schemes currently
in place independent of Sudan
Information Analysis
Existent a South Sudan Statistical Body tracks inflation and other
metrics
There are no government or 3rd party entities that promoted transparency
in oil production
Virtually no internal higher or vocational education programs outside of companies.
Aggregation and Distribution
Limited-‐-‐Banks exist and trade the currency, but there are not many
financial intermediaries
The two active pipelines in S. Sudan run through Sudan which keeps a
tight control over exports.
83% of the population is illiterate and technical training is virtually non-‐existent
Transaction Facilitation
Very limited the currency (South Sudan Pound) does not have a set exchange rate with the Sudanese
pound
Due to control of pipelines , Sudan controls the sales of oil from the
South.
Ministry of Human Resources established to develop capability within other ministries and the public. Includes
Directorate of Development and Training
Regulation and Public Institutions
Independent Commission of Fiscal Allocation, central bank, and Ministry of Finance backed by World Bank
Regulatory bodies to oversee oil production were only formed in late 2011 and have little experience
Ministry of Labor exists with mandates for capacity building, worker training, and
worker protection among others.
Adjudication
Strongly-‐worded protection for foreign investors and operators, enforcement capabilities are
unknown
Standards and a petroleum regulator exist, enforcement capabilities are
unknown
Ministries of labor and justice exist, enforcement capabilities are unknown
Since becoming independent in 2011 the newly formed South Sudanese government has been working with numerous governments and NGOs to try and develop the functioning institutions and infrastructure and attract FDI.
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Political System & Openness in South Sudan
OPENNESS + Policy of non-‐discrimination against foreign investors + Government allows full repatriation of earnings and dividends and allows freely convertible currency. -‐ Ability and willingness to adjudicate is unknown
POLITICAL SYSTEM + The government launched an Anti-‐Corruption Commission to weed out corrupt politicians. -‐ The government is forced to spend more than 31% of its budget on security to internal struggles with rebel groups and border attacks by the Sudanese military.
Recent attacks by Sudan on South Sudan Cities and Oil Fields
Since becoming independent in 2011 the newly formed South Sudanese government has been working with numerous governments and NGOs to try and develop the functioning institutions and infrastructure and attract FDI.
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Major Voids in South Sudan
VOID POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS POTENTIAL REDUCTION IN GROSS INCOME
Capital Markets Aggregation and Distribution Lack of institutional investors
Drives up capex and operating costs by requiring Chevron to take a greater ownership stake of a risky project in S. Sudan, reducing profitability
$4.2 Billion w/a 10% reduction in profit margin
Product Markets Aggregation and Distribution Existing pipelines run through Sudan
An unreliable distribution network to
market share in the field
$3.8 Billion w/a 5%reduction in market
share
Product Markets AdjudicationPublic institutions are new and weak
With no formal conflict resolution process that has been established with precedent, Chevron faces risk of
Respol in Argentina
$6.8 Billion assuming a 40% payout after
confiscation of oil reserves
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Dealing with Voids in South Sudan Based on Experiences in Chad and
Kazakhstan
VOID UNIQUE? HOW CHEVRON SHOULD ADDRESS THE VOIDS
Product Markets Aggregation and Distribution Little control over pipeline capacity
No Chevron transferred pipeline risk in Chad and expanded pipes in Kazakhstan
Mitigate/Transfer -‐ Chevron could use its expertise in upstream
development banks as they did in Chad and Kazakhstan to help build a suitable pipeline through neighboring Kenya.
Capital Markets Aggregation and Distribution Lack of institutional investors
No Chevron worked with Global Organizations to fund Capex in Chad
Transfer -‐ Since 2005 South Sudan has received over $4billion in International AID, much of it coming from the World Bank which has pledged to support infrastructure development. Chevron can partner
needs.
Product Markets Adjudication No track record on the government ability to enforce contracts
Yes South Sudan younger and less established then other markets Chevron has entered.
Mitigate/Transfer South Sudan is so new that its ability to adjudicate contracts is virtually unknown. Chevron could buy insurance to
mitigate lengthy disputes with the government or local suppliers. It could partner with other IOCs and NOCs to transfer risk of broken or
disputed contracts.
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Potential Value of South Sudan after Risk Mitigation
Voids Unique? Less Costs
Limited Pipeline Capacity
No $4.2bn
Lack of Financial Intermediaries
No $3.8bn
Nascent/Unproven Legal Systems
Yes $6.8bn
Value of Entering S. Sudan ($3.4bn)
Total Value of 20 Years of Income in South Sudan $11.4bn
Investment projections in a vacuum
Voids Addressed Unique? Less Costs
New Pipeline Capacity
No $3.0bn
World Bank and IFC Loans
No $0.0bn
Political Risk Insurance
Yes $0.3bn
Value of Entering S. Sudan $8.1bn
Total Value of 20 Years of Income in South Sudan $11.4bn
Investment projections when drawing on best practices from Kazakhstan and Chad
Note: The above quantifies the potential value to Chevron by entering South Sudan, after removing the reduction in
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Without using the risk mitigation tools learned from experience in Kazakhstan and Chad the value of entering South Sudan is ($3.4bn) < $0
Chevron should not enter under these circumstances.
Using the risk mitigation tools learned from experience in Kazakhstan and Chad the value of entering South Sudan is $8.1bn > $0.
If Chevron entered South Sudan, there would still be at least $8.1 billion in value using risk mitigation strategies learned from other emerging markets.
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Go/ No Go and Next Steps for Chevron in South Sudan
WHY? South Sudan presents Chevron with some excellent future opportunities for oil
production. As showed on the previous slide utilizing previous risk mitigation and transfer techniques, over $8 billion in potential income exists for Chevron in South Sudan.
However, many of the risk mitigation techniques are predicated on the assistance of multiple NOC and IOCs. Further the political instability and conflict with Sudan will likely
hinder the ability of Chevron to mitigate the most severe voids at this time.
NO GO
the political situation becomes more stable with Chevron should enter South Sudan.
NEXT STEPS
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APPENDIX
Assumptions for Chad Valuation Estimated reserves of 5 billion barrels 25% Chevron stake Ordinary cost of $20/barrel Ordinary cost of capital of 10%
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At a cost of $20/barrel and r=10% 13,042,954,773 $ At a cost of $25/barrel and r=10% 11,750,641,101 $
At a cost of $30/barrel and r=15% 8,846,408,036 $ At a cost of $20/barrel and r=12% 12,181,966,641 $
VaR with Capital Cost increase of 2% 860,988,132 $
VaR with Operating Cost increase of 25% 1,292,313,671 $
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Kazakhstan Net Income Impact Calculations
Pipeline Capacity Chevron is working with a consortium to expand pipeline capacity, which is expected to finish in 2015, the expansion of the pipeline is expected to take place around the same time as expansion of the Tengiz Oil Field which should provide 250k-‐300k barrels of oil per day
ional production output. 150k / day x $100 per barrel -‐ $12 per operating cost per barrel x 365 days in a year = ~ $4.9 billion /year Shortage of Engineers According to a report by BAH http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Capital_Project_Execution.pdf executives in the oil and gas industry estimate that due to current shortages in engineers and other qualified workers traditional contractors can managed 70% of planned future production. Another report by Time magazine says the shortage of engineers global and in the US is approximately 10%, however, Kazakhstan is likely much worse due to the tertiary % of gross population being 2.23x less than the United States (World Bank Data) . Using the above data we can estimate the potential cost to Chevron due to a lack of qualified engineers. A 30% reduction in planned future activities x 1.223 ( assumes the 30% reduction is based on a 10% shortage in the US which when
3) x 150k (future production expansion in the Tengiz Oil field) x $ 100 per barrel -‐ $12 in operating costs = ~$1.8 billion/year. Lack of quality suppliers When S. Sudan broke away from Sudan supplies and equipment for upstream production were stranded at the border and oil production in S. Sudan decline by 5% immediately. We assume a similar decline is possible in Kazakhstan due to the fact that most equipment and suppliers are imported by Chevron. 291k barrels/day (currently extracted) x .05 x $88 (see above calculation) x 365 = $.47 Billion
Business Case Kazakhstan Analysis Chad Analysis South Sudan Analysis Recommendation
Chad Financial Stability Report: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11299.pdf Chevron in Chad Fact Sheet: http://www.chevron.com/documents/pdf/chadfactsheet.pdf Chevron 2011 10k Chevron 2011 Annual Report Supplements
Petronas http://www.25degrees.net/index.php/component/option,com_zine/Itemid,123/id,593/lang,en/view,article/ World Bank Doing Business in Chad 2012 Report: http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/chad/ Local Employees in Chad and Cameroon EssonChad: www.essochad.com/Chad-‐English/PA/Files/31_ch9.pdf Economist Intelligence Unit 2011 Chad Country Report Economist Intelligence Unit 2012 Chad Country Report Government of South Sudan webside: www.goss.org
http://bakerinstitute.org/events/the-‐changing-‐role-‐of-‐national-‐oil-‐companies-‐in-‐international-‐energy-‐markets Google Finance Reuters International Energy Study
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Sources