georgetown sfs - chevron fdi risk in emerging markets strategy

35
ŚĞǀƌŽŶƐ FDI Risk Strategy: How Past Experiences Shape Future Investments FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Aaron Easlick, Michael Edeke, Patrick Ottenhoff Presented April 19, 2012

Upload: patrick-ottenhoff

Post on 26-Jan-2015

108 views

Category:

Business


0 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

 FDI  Risk  Strategy:  How  Past  

Experiences  Shape  Future  Investments    

FDI  Risk  in  Emerging  Markets  Aaron  Easlick,  Michael  Edeke,  Patrick  Ottenhoff  

Presented  April  19,  2012  

Page 2: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

2  

Emerging Markets

Chevron  is  an  integrated  energy  company  that  generates  most  profit  from  upstream  operations.  Oil  and  gas  industry  is  increasingly  dominated  by  national  oil  companies  in  recent  years,  forcing  independent  ones  to  explore  riskier  areas.  With  strong  financial  health  relative  to  its  private  peers,  Chevron  has  more  appetite  for  risk.  

Chevron  successfully  entered  this  market  in  1993  after  independence.  Chevron  operates  in  largest  oil  fields  ,  owns  50%  stake  in  Tengizchevroil  with  the  Kazakh  state.  Major  voids:  lack  of  pipeline  capacity,  shortage  of  skilled  engineers  and  few  domestic  suppliers.  

Severely  underdeveloped  state  that  has  been  ruled  by  a  military  government  since  1976.  Chevron  operates  JV  with  Exxon  and  owns  a  pipeline  running  through  Chad  and  Cameroon.  Major  voids:  poor  distribution  networks,  insolvent  banks,  and  unpredictable  legal  institutions.  

Newly-­‐independent  nation  with  significant  oil  reserves;  Asian  companies  investing  quickly.  Major  voids:  Limited  financial  intermediaries,  nonexistent  physical    infrastructure,  political  and  legal  institutions  are  young  and  unproven.  

Case  Study  #1:  Kazakhstan  

Appetite  for  Risk  

Case  Study  #2:  Chad  

Business  Case:  South  Sudan  

Based  on  Kazakh  and  Chad  experiences,  and  voids  in  South  Sudan,  we  do  not  recommend  that  Chevron  lead  exploration  in  South  Sudan  at  this  time.  

Page 3: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

Vertically-­‐integrated  energy  company  with  exploration,  production  and  refining  operations  worldwide  

   

Production  of  2.67bn  barrels  of                  oil  each  day    

$198.81bn  market  cap    

2nd  largest  U.S.  oil  company  3rd  largest  private  oil    

       company  worldwide  19th  largest  oil  company  

         worldwide        

3  

Chevron Overview

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Upstream   Downstream  $,  billions  

Revenue

Income

27%  profit  margin  

1%  profit  margin  Upstream  production  is  considerably    

           more  profitable  than  downstream  operations    

87%  of  $20bn  capex  budget  is  directed  to  upstream,  11%  in  downstream,  2%  other  

Page 4: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

4  

Industry Overview: Rise of NOCs

77%  of  total  worldwide  resources  are  under  the  control  of  national  oil  companies  (NOCs)  with  no  equity  participation  by  foreign,  international  oil  companies  (IOCs).    Western  IOCs  now    

         control  less  than  10%                          resource  base.    

 14  of  the  top  20  upstream  

         companies  in  the  world              are  now  NOCs.  

 This  trend  has  forced    

           the  IOCs  to  explore                increasingly  risky  areas.    

IOCs:  better  technology,                are  more  efficient,                more  profitable.  

NOCs,  77%   IOCs  10%  

JVs  13%  

Page 5: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

5  

Industry Overview: Leading the IOCs Chevron  (CVX,  +131%)  outperforming  rivals  IOCs  in  last  decade  

Running  profitable  operation,  but  slightly  lower  ROE  Strong  financials  indicate  CVX  is  in  safer  position  to  accept  risk  

Company   PEG   Profit  Margin  

ROE   D/E   Credit  Rating  

Chevron  (CVX)   1.33   11.0%   24%   0.08   AA  BP  (BP)   1.38   8.0%   25%   0.40   A  Exxon  (XOM)   1.47   9.5%   27%   0.11   AAA  

Page 6: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

6  

Upstream overview

32%  Asia  25%  USA  18%  Africa  15%  Americas  8%  Europe  5%  Australia    22%  OPEC    

Chevron  maintains  a  geographically-­‐balanced  upstream  portfolio  and  is  hedged    

However,  Chevron  has  entered  or  explored  most  top  targets  around  the  globe  and  will  increasingly  be  forced  to  consider  riskier  areas.    

Page 7: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

1. Political concerns First and foremost, Chevron cannot enter a country if it is not open for business or if markets are closed due to war or sanctions. Iran (sanctions) and Iraq (war) are good recent examples.

2. Geological conditions Chevron must also conduct a cost analysis of production in certain geological conditions (see Slide 10). For example, deepwater and oil sands are considerably more expensive to extract and refine, and therefore are less profitable.

3. Presence of Competitors Presence of IOCs: A market cornered by ExxonMobil or Royal Dutch Shell will be less attractive for Chevron. However, Chevron sometimes invites competitors to join projects to spread risk. Presence of NOCs: Chevron is increasingly confronting NOCs not only in their home markets, but also abroad. PetroChina, for example, is heavily invested in Africa. In many cases, Chevron is forced to enter JVs with NOCs

7  

Foreign Market Strategy

Before  Chevron  enters  a  foreign  market,  it  must  conduct  a  profitability  study  that  encompasses  the  following  three  major  conditions:        

Page 8: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

8  

Business case for going on-‐shore

 $-­‐

 $10

 $20

 $30

 $40

 $50

 $60

High  Estimate

Low  or  StatedEstimate

Onshore  More  Profitable  

Offshore,  Sands  Less  Profitable  

Red  denotes  costs  stated  in  Chevron  10-­‐k  /  Blue  denotes  analyst  estimates  

Onshore  production  is  more  profitable  than  offshore,  ceteris  paribus.  In  Nigeria,  for  example,  offshore  production  ($30/barrel)  is  twice  as  expensive  as  onshore  ($15/barrel)  Private  operations  are  almost  always  more  productive  than  any  NOC-­‐affiliated  operation.  In  Kazakhstan,  it  costs  the  private  firm  $10-­‐$12/barrel  and  the  NOC  $15-­‐$18/barrel.    

Prod

uctio

n  cost  per  barrel  

Page 9: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

9  

Importance of analyzing risk

Examples  of  Risks    -­‐  Major  enviro.  lawsuit  (operational/political):  Chevron  fined  by  courts  in  Ecuador  for  $9.5bn  for  enviro.  damage      

-­‐  Oil  spill  (operational):  Brazilian  prosecutors  are  demanding  $10.6bn  for  an  offshore  spill      

-­‐  Windfall  taxes  (political):  Chad  imposed  

$280mm  unanticipated  taxes  on  Chevron      

-­‐  Expropriation  (political):  Argentina  unexpectedly  

Respol;  company  demands  $10.5bn  in  compensation  

Legend    

Y-­‐axis  =  frequency  and  likelihood  of  a  given  risk.    

X-­‐axis  =  severity  and  impact  of  a  given  risk.    

Together,  the  size  of  the  bubble  indicates  how  potentially  consequential  a  given  risk  could  be.  

Page 10: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

Kazakhstan

Proven Success in an Emerging Market: This is an example of Chevron experiencing sustained success in an emerging market Entered Immediately After Independence: Chevron entered this market as soon as it was opened (1993), similar to the experience with S. Sudan and its independence Experience Working with State: Chevron was the lead IOC in several projects and consortiums involving NOC investors

Chad

Geography and Geology: Chad is close to S. Sudan, with a similar climate and similar geographical and geological obstacles Similar Institutional Voids: Like S. Sudan, Chad is extremely underdeveloped and has considerable institutional voids

10  

Case Studies: Kazakhstan and Chad

Page 11: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Analysis  of  Kazakhstan  

11  

Page 12: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

12  

Overview of Chevron in Kazakhstan

       

Key  Facts  about  Chevron  in  Kazakhstan    

Chevron  operates  in  the  two  largest  oil  fields  in  Kazakhstan.  It  has  a  50%  stake  in  Tengizchevroil  (TCO)  a  JV  with  the  Kazakh  NOC  which  operates  the  Tegiz  field   the  deepest  operating  super  giant  oil  field  in  the  world,  and  a  20%  stake  in  the  

nd  largest  oil  field.  

 Chevron  extracts  approximately  291,000  barrels  of  oil  a  day  with  plans  to  increase  its  total  output  by  up  to  150,000  barrels  a  day.    Chevron  is  the  largest  private  stake  holder  in  the  CPC  pipeline,  the  largest  capacity  pipeline  that  connects  Kazakhstan's  oil  fields  to  ports  on  the  Caspian  Sea.  

Chevron  is  the  largest  IOC  in  Kazakhstan  and  was  the  first  private  oil  company  to  enter  the  country  after  Kazakhstan  declared  its  independence  from  the  Soviet  Union;  it  entered  Kazakhstan  in  1993.  

Page 13: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

Capital  Markets1   Product  Markets   Labor  Markets    

Credibility  Enhancement  

Financial  and  legal  statements  are  not  easily  accessible.  

No  universal  audit  standards  

Local/Global  agencies/companies  rarely  rate  quality  of  suppliers  

.  

Information  Analysis    

Credit  Risk  Agencies  are  virtually  non-­‐existent  

No  Major  Voids  Exist  for  Oil  &  Gas  Industry  

Independent  aggregators  of  career  and  employee  information  are  not  present  

Aggregation  and  Distribution  

Insurance  receipts  total  .7%  of  GDP  versus  8.6%  in  OECD  countries.   accommodate  full  upstream  

production  capacity.  Low  quality  domestic  suppliers.  

Most  universities  are  inadequately  equipped  and  produce  poorly  qualified  

Engineers  

Transaction  Facilitation  

Equity  markets  are  very  undercapitalized  

No  Major  Voids  Exist  for  Oil  &  Gas  Industry  

Services  that  place  workers  with  employers  are  fractured  and  

underdeveloped  

Regulation  and  Public  Institutions  

Similar  to  OECD  institutions,  however,  lack  of  training  and  corruption  are  

prevalent  

Burdensome  regulations  and  taxes  on  importing/exporting  of  goods  make  trading  across  borders  very  difficult  

Multiple  agencies  exist  to  regulate  workers  rights,  health,  and  

discrimination,  however,  corruption  hinders  mission  statements  

Adjudication  The  processes  to  enforce  financial  

contracts  is  significantly  slower  than  in  OECD  countries.  

Government  has  the  right  to  break  and  alter  any  energy  contract  with  an  IOC  

 Labor  law  courts  exist  and  operate  to  some  level  of  satisfaction,  however,  

corruption  can  skew  and  delay  outcomes    

13  

Institutional Void Matrix for Kazakhstan

Source:  World  Bank  ROSC    Kazakhstan,  TrustLaw,  BMI  Kazakhstan  Oil  &  Gas  Sector  Report  

Page 14: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

14  

Political System & Openness in Kazakhstan

FDI  in  Kazakhstan  in  $  Billions    

Since  1993  when  Chevron  first  entered  Kazakhstan,  political  stability  has  remained  steady  and  openness  has  

situation  still  presents  foreign  companies  with  numerous  hurdles.  

Transparency  International  Corruption  Index    (1  very  corrupt,  9  very  transparent)  

OPENNESS    +  The  Government  has  made  ascension  into  the  WTO  a  top  economic  priority,  actively  pursuing  necessary  reforms  since  1997.  -­‐    Trading  across  borders  is  difficult  with  import/export  costs  and  time  3x  greater  than  OECD  countries.  

POLITICAL  SYSTEM  +  Since  2010  the  government  has  stepped  up  enforcement  of  business  contracts.  -­‐    Corruption  remains  a  major  concern  and  cost  to  doing  business  in  the  country  with  transparency  levels  far  below  OECD  countries.  

Sources:  World  Bank  Ease  of  Doing  Business  Report,  WTO,    UNESCAP  

Page 15: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

15  

Major voids in Kazakhstan

While  Chevron  is  forced  to  deal  with  numerous  institutional  and  infrastructural  voids  in  Kazakhstan,  three  of  the    

VOID   POTENTIAL  IMPACT  ON  OPERATIONS   POTENTIAL  YEARLY  IMPACT  ON  GROSS  INCOME  

Product  Market  Distribution:      Lack  of  pipeline  capacity  

Unless  pipeline  capacity  is  increased,  Chevron  would  not  be  able  to  adequately  increase  production.  

$  4.90  Billion  

Labor  Market  Distribution:    Shortage  of  skilled  engineers  

The  lack  of  qualified  engineers  

launch  new  projects  while  managing  current  operations.  

$1.80  Billion  

Product  Market  Distribution:    Few  quality  domestic  suppliers  

Kazakhstan  ranks  176/183  for  transporting  across  borders.    Any  equipment  failure  or  supply  shortage  could  cause  significant  operation  delays  for  Chevron.  

$0.47  Billion  

 

Page 16: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

16  

How Chevron is Addressing Major Voids in Kazakhstan

Chevron  has  actively  worked  to  address  the  voids  described  on  the  previous  slide  by  typically  trying  to  mitigate  the  potential  for  future  disruptions  to  its  operations,  although  in  some  cases  Chevron  appears  to  retain  the  risk.  

VOID   Type  of  Risk   HOW  CHEVRON  IS  ADDRESSING  THE  VOIDS    

Pipeline  Capacity    

Operational   Mitigation    -­‐-­‐  Chevron  is  working  with  a    consortium  of  IOCs  and  NOCs  to  expand  the  capacity  of  the  CPC  pipeline  by  nearly  100%.    The  total  cost  of  the  pipeline  expansion  will  be  roughly  $5.4  billion.  

Shortage  of  Engineers    

Operational   Mitigation/Transfer  -­‐-­‐  Chevron  spent  $40  million  over  the  past  few  years  in  Kazakhstan  to  help  universities  better  trained  managers  and  engineers  for  the  oil  industry.    However,  the  company  increasingly  relies  on  operating  contractors  in  its  TCO  operations  (largest  oil  field  in  Kazakhstan)  

Shortage  of  Quality  Suppliers  in  the  Country    

Operational   Mitigation  -­‐-­‐  Since  2005  Chevron  has  actively  supported  the  development  of  Kazakhstan  suppliers  by    establishing  preferred  local  supplier  programs  that  encourage  quality  production  and  then  rewarding  them  over  $1.6  billion  in  business  a  year.  

Page 17: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Analysis  of  Chad  

17  

Page 18: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

Chad  is  a  central  African  state  comprised  of  Saharan  desert  in  the  north  and  Sahel  in  the  south  Current  regime  is  a  military  government  that  has  ruled  since  1979  Chevron  has  two  major  projects  in  Chad:  

The  Doba  oil  fields  Chad-­‐Cameroon  oil  pipeline  

With  ExxonMobil,  Petronas,  and  the  World  Bank,  Chevron  has  invested  $7  billion  since  2000  in  the  Doba  oil-­‐field  

Consists  of  2  pumping  stations,  a  pressure  reduction  station,  and  a  floating  storage  and  offloading  vessel  Crude  pumped  in  Chad  is  transported  through  a  665-­‐mi  pipeline  to  the  Atlantic  coast  off  Cameroon  

18  

Overview of Chevron in Chad

Page 19: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

Capital  Markets   Product  Markets   Labor  Markets    

Credibility  Enhancement  

None;  there  is  zero  coverage  of  private  bureaus    

Void Virtually  no  local  product  standards  

Technical  certification  from  abroad  is  available  

Information  Analysis    

Limited no  major  credit  rating  agencies  

Limited product  markets  are  not  developed  but  there  are  cell  

press  

Void Majority  of  workforce  is  in  subsistence  agriculture.  Semi-­‐skilled    

Aggregation  and  Distribution  

Severely  Limited the  World  Bank  financed  portion  of  major  

pipeline  

Void Product  market  is  fragmented  and  is  focused  on  

basic  subsistence  goods  

Vocational  Center  of    opened  in  2011  

 Union  of  Trade  Unions  is  a  center  

Transaction  Facilitation  

Void underdeveloped  financial  intermediaries  

Lack  of  banking  infrastructure.  Little  physical  infrastructure,  less  

than  400  mi  of  paved  roads  

Void skilled  labor  must  be  imported;  unskilled  labor  market  

opaque  

Regulation  and  Public  Institutions  

Void Public  banks  have  negative  equity  and    

Limited College  de  Control  et  de  Surveillance  des  Resources is  

nearly  powerless  

Void Government  has  limited  capacity  to  track  workforce  or  

conditions  

Adjudication  Direct  conflict  resolution  through  the  executive  branch  with  no  

independent  judiciary  

Poor,  contract  enforcement  costs  on-­‐average  45%  of  the  total  claim   Little  judicial  infrastructure  

19  

Institutional Void Matrix for Chad  As  a  failed  state,  Chad  has  a  dearth  of  physical  and  institutional  infrastructure  that  has  exacerbated  its  status  as  one  of  the  most  difficult  places  in  the  world  to  do  business.  Underdeveloped  capital  markets  in  

particular  prove  to  be  an  obstacle  to  doing  business.    

Page 20: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

20  

Political System & Openness in Chad

Source:  Roy  May  and  Simon  Massey  (March,  1999)  Chad:  Social,  Political  and  Economic  Situation  WriteNet  Country  Papers,  Refworld,  UNHCR.    

Chad  is  a  failed  state  under  the  control  of  the  autocratic  Idris  Deby  since  1979.  The  development  of  its  oil  resources  in  a  joint-­‐venture  with  ExxonMobile,  Petronas  and  the  World  Bank  was  supposed  to  grant  the  government  revenues  

with  which  it  could  pay  for  human  development  projects  that  have  not  materialized.  

OPENNESS    +  A  member  of  the  African  Union  and  the  government  was  amenable  to  stipulations  formulated  by  the  World  Bank  on  how  oil  production  revenues  were  to  be  spent  on  development  -­‐    The  government    has  ignored  the  milestones  and  has  been  stabilized  by  the  influx  of  weapons  and  armed  soldiers  from  the  Arab  Spring.  

POLITICAL  SYSTEM  +  Presidential  elections  for  a  presidential  term  of  five-­‐years  have  been  held  since  1996    -­‐    Corruption  is  endemic  to  the  system  and  Deby  has  been  the  only  winner.  The  entire  judiciary  is  appointed  by  the  president  and  in  2006  he  had  to  fend  off  an  attempted  coup  by  rival  military  leaders.    

Chad  by  International  Rankings  

183rd    

168th  out  of  182  on  Transparency    

163rd  out  of  169  on  the  Human  Development  Index  

4  out  of  10  on    Foreign  Investment  Index  (China  is  7.5)  

Page 21: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

21  

Major voids in Chad

While  Chevron  is  forced  to  deal  with  numerous  institutional  and  infrastructural  voids  in  Chad,  three  of  the  voids    

VOID   POTENTIAL  IMPACT  ON  OPERATIONS  

IMPACT  ON  TOTAL  VALUE  OF  CHAD  OPERATIONS  

Product  Market  Aggregation  and  Distribution Deterioration  of  product  distribution  network      

Pipeline  infrastructure  deterioration  reduces  the  amount  of  commercially  viable  oil  shipped  through  Cameroon  to  the  Atlantic  Coast.    

$1.3  Billion  w/  a  25%  increase  in  operating  costs  

Capital  Markets  Adjudication No  formal  method  of  resolving  financial  contract  disputes  

Inability  to  settle  financial  disputes  with  government  has  led  to  unverifiable  charges  in  the  form  of  

oil  producers.    

$245  Million  to  settle  a  2006  claim  for  windfall  

taxes  of  40%  of  operating  income  

Capital  Markets  Aggregation  and  Distribution Inefficient  local  banking  sector        

Insolvency  of  local  banks  could  increase  capital  costs  by  forcing  Chevron  to  finance  through  other  intermediaries  farther  afield.    

$861  Million  w/  a  200  basis  point  increase  in  cost  

of  capital  

Page 22: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

22  

How Chevron address Chad voids

Chevron  has  actively  worked  to  address  the  voids  described  on  the  previous  slide  by  typically  trying  to  mitigate  the  potential  for  future  disruptions  to  its  operations,  although  in  some  cases  Chevron  appears  to  retain  the  risk.  

VOID   TYPE  OF  RISK    

Product  Market  Aggregation  and  Distribution    

Operational   Transfer Activity  in  Chad  by  the  China  National  Petroleum  Corporation  is  expected  to  produce  60,000  b/d  of  crude  and  is  building  a  refinery  at   .    

Capitals  Market  Adjudication    

Company  Specific   Mitigation In  a  2006  tax  dispute  with  the  central  government  Chevron  at  first  chose  withdrawal,  then  paid  a  reduced  sum  of  $280  MM  USD  for  its  tax  charge.  How  the  tax  accrued  in  the  first  place  and  regular  payment  mechanisms  are  not  readily  available.    

Capital  Markets  Aggregation  and  Distribution    

Financial   Mitigation/Transfer Used  World  Bank  and  IFC  loans  for  the  initial  capital  construction  and  sources  capex  and  working  capital  needs  from  outside  the  country.    

Page 23: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Analysis  of  South  Sudan  

23  

Page 24: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

24  

Business case for South Sudan

south

The  area  highlighted  in  blue  represents  the  Suds  Province,  a  geographical  region  that  spans  Chad,  Sudan,  South  Sudan,  and  CAR.    Approximately  

40%  of  this  region  lies  in  the  newly  formed  state  of  South  Sudan  

 In  September  of  2011  the  US  Treasury  eased  restrictions  on  US  oil  companies  seeking  to  do  business  in  South  Sudan    sanctions  placed  on  Sudan  for  terrorist  activities  in  1997  previously  kept  US  firms  from  operating  in  the  region.      The  South  Sudanese  government  has  indicated  its  desire  to  lure  Western  oil  companies  into  the  country  in  order  to  diversify  from  its  dependence  on  Chinese  NOCs  and  capital  and  to  help  with  future  exploration.       Sud  Province  which  spans  Chad,  Central  African  Republic,  Sudan  and  South  Sudan  has  7  billion  barrels  of  unexplored  oil  reserves.    Approximately  40%  of  the  

 

 

Financial  Opportunity  for  Chevron  

2.8bil  reserves  x  15%  =      

420mil  barrels  

420mil  barrels  x  $100/barrel  =  

$42bil  in  Revenue  

$42bil  in  Revenue  x  27%  profit  margin  =    

$11.4bil  in  Net  Income  

Assumptions:    $100/barrel  spot  price,  similar  market  share  for  new  oil  production  in  S.  Sudan  as  current  market  share  in  Chad    15%,  profit  margin  on  par  with  data  provided  in  2010  10k  

Page 25: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

25  

Institutional void matrix for South Sudan

Capital  Markets1   Product  Markets   Labor  Markets    

Credibility  Enhancement   Void must  use  outside  resources   There  are  no  government  or  3rd  party  

entities  that  certify  local  suppliers  Virtually  no  certification  schemes  currently  

in  place  independent  of  Sudan  

Information  Analysis    

Existent a  South  Sudan  Statistical  Body  tracks  inflation  and  other  

metrics  

There  are  no  government  or  3rd  party  entities  that  promoted  transparency  

in  oil  production  

Virtually  no  internal  higher  or  vocational  education  programs  outside  of  companies.    

Aggregation  and  Distribution  

Limited-­‐-­‐Banks  exist  and  trade  the  currency,  but  there  are    not  many  

financial  intermediaries  

The  two  active  pipelines  in  S.  Sudan  run  through  Sudan  which  keeps  a  

tight  control  over  exports.  

83%  of  the  population  is  illiterate  and  technical  training  is  virtually  non-­‐existent  

Transaction  Facilitation  

Very  limited the  currency  (South  Sudan  Pound)  does  not  have  a  set  exchange  rate  with  the  Sudanese  

pound  

Due  to  control  of  pipelines  ,  Sudan  controls  the  sales  of  oil  from  the  

South.  

Ministry  of  Human  Resources  established  to  develop  capability  within  other  ministries    and  the  public.  Includes  

Directorate  of  Development  and  Training  

Regulation  and  Public  Institutions  

Independent  Commission  of  Fiscal  Allocation,  central  bank,  and  Ministry  of  Finance  backed  by  World  Bank  

Regulatory  bodies  to  oversee  oil  production  were  only  formed  in  late  2011  and  have  little  experience  

Ministry  of  Labor  exists  with  mandates  for  capacity  building,  worker  training,  and  

worker  protection  among  others.    

Adjudication  

Strongly-­‐worded  protection  for  foreign  investors  and  operators,  enforcement  capabilities  are  

unknown  

Standards  and  a  petroleum  regulator  exist,  enforcement  capabilities  are  

unknown    

Ministries  of  labor  and  justice  exist,  enforcement  capabilities  are  unknown  

 Since  becoming  independent  in  2011  the  newly  formed  South  Sudanese  government  has  been  working  with  numerous  governments  and  NGOs  to  try  and  develop  the  functioning  institutions  and  infrastructure  and  attract  FDI.  

Page 26: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

26  

Political System & Openness in South Sudan

OPENNESS    +  Policy  of  non-­‐discrimination  against  foreign  investors  +  Government  allows  full  repatriation  of  earnings  and  dividends  and  allows  freely  convertible  currency.  -­‐  Ability  and  willingness  to  adjudicate  is  unknown  

POLITICAL  SYSTEM  +  The  government  launched  an  Anti-­‐Corruption  Commission  to  weed  out  corrupt  politicians.  -­‐    The  government  is  forced  to  spend  more  than  31%  of  its  budget  on  security  to  internal  struggles  with  rebel  groups  and  border  attacks  by  the  Sudanese  military.  

Recent  attacks  by  Sudan  on  South  Sudan  Cities  and  Oil  Fields    

 Since  becoming  independent  in  2011  the  newly  formed  South  Sudanese  government  has  been  working  with  numerous  governments  and  NGOs  to  try  and  develop  the  functioning  institutions  and  infrastructure  and  attract  FDI.  

Page 27: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

27  

Major Voids in South Sudan

 

VOID   POTENTIAL  IMPACT  ON  OPERATIONS   POTENTIAL  REDUCTION  IN  GROSS  INCOME  

Capital  Markets  Aggregation  and  Distribution Lack  of  institutional  investors  

Drives  up  capex  and  operating  costs  by  requiring  Chevron  to  take  a  greater  ownership  stake  of  a  risky  project  in  S.  Sudan,  reducing  profitability  

$4.2  Billion  w/a  10%  reduction  in  profit  margin  

Product  Markets  Aggregation  and  Distribution Existing  pipelines  run  through  Sudan  

An  unreliable  distribution  network    to  

market  share  in  the  field  

$3.8  Billion  w/a  5%reduction  in  market  

share  

Product  Markets  AdjudicationPublic  institutions  are  new  and  weak    

With  no  formal  conflict  resolution  process  that  has  been  established  with  precedent,  Chevron  faces  risk  of  

Respol  in  Argentina  

$6.8  Billion  assuming  a  40%  payout  after  

confiscation  of  oil  reserves  

Page 28: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

28  

Dealing with Voids in South Sudan Based on Experiences in Chad and

Kazakhstan

VOID   UNIQUE?   HOW  CHEVRON    SHOULD  ADDRESS  THE  VOIDS    

Product  Markets  Aggregation  and  Distribution   Little  control  over  pipeline  capacity  

No    Chevron  transferred  pipeline  risk  in  Chad  and  expanded  pipes  in  Kazakhstan  

Mitigate/Transfer  -­‐  Chevron  could  use  its  expertise  in  upstream  

development  banks  as  they  did  in  Chad  and  Kazakhstan  to  help  build  a  suitable  pipeline  through  neighboring  Kenya.  

Capital  Markets  Aggregation  and  Distribution Lack  of  institutional  investors  

No    Chevron  worked  with  Global  Organizations  to  fund  Capex  in  Chad  

Transfer  -­‐  Since  2005  South  Sudan  has  received  over  $4billion  in  International  AID,  much  of  it  coming  from  the  World  Bank  which  has  pledged  to  support  infrastructure  development.    Chevron  can  partner  

needs.  

Product  Markets  Adjudication    No  track  record  on  the  government  ability  to  enforce  contracts  

Yes    South  Sudan  younger  and  less  established  then  other  markets  Chevron  has  entered.  

Mitigate/Transfer    South  Sudan  is  so  new  that  its  ability  to  adjudicate  contracts  is  virtually  unknown.    Chevron  could  buy  insurance  to  

mitigate  lengthy  disputes  with  the  government  or  local  suppliers.    It  could  partner  with  other  IOCs  and  NOCs  to  transfer    risk  of  broken  or  

disputed  contracts.  

Page 29: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

29  

Potential Value of South Sudan after Risk Mitigation

Voids   Unique?   Less  Costs  

Limited  Pipeline  Capacity  

No   $4.2bn  

Lack  of  Financial  Intermediaries  

No   $3.8bn  

Nascent/Unproven  Legal  Systems  

Yes   $6.8bn  

Value  of  Entering  S.  Sudan   ($3.4bn)  

Total  Value  of  20  Years  of  Income  in  South  Sudan   $11.4bn  

Investment  projections  in  a  vacuum  

Voids  Addressed   Unique?   Less  Costs  

New  Pipeline  Capacity  

No   $3.0bn  

World  Bank  and  IFC  Loans  

No   $0.0bn  

Political  Risk  Insurance  

Yes   $0.3bn  

Value  of  Entering  S.  Sudan   $8.1bn  

Total  Value  of  20  Years  of  Income  in  South  Sudan   $11.4bn  

Investment  projections  when  drawing  on  best  practices  from  Kazakhstan  and  Chad  

 Note:    The  above  quantifies  the  potential  value  to  Chevron  by  entering  South  Sudan,  after  removing  the  reduction  in    

Page 30: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

30  

Without  using  the  risk  mitigation  tools  learned  from  experience  in  Kazakhstan  and  Chad the  value  of  entering  South  Sudan  is    ($3.4bn)  <  $0    

 Chevron  should  not  enter  under  these  circumstances.    

   

Using  the  risk  mitigation  tools  learned  from  experience  in  Kazakhstan  and  Chad the  value  of  entering  South  Sudan  is  $8.1bn    >  $0.    

 If  Chevron  entered  South  Sudan,  there  would  still  be  at  least  $8.1  billion  in  value  using  risk  mitigation  strategies  learned  from  other  emerging  markets.  

 

Page 31: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

31  

Go/ No Go and Next Steps for Chevron in South Sudan

WHY?  South  Sudan  presents  Chevron  with  some  excellent  future  opportunities  for  oil  

production.    As  showed  on  the  previous  slide  utilizing  previous  risk  mitigation  and  transfer  techniques,  over  $8  billion  in  potential  income  exists  for  Chevron  in  South  Sudan.    

However,  many  of  the  risk  mitigation  techniques  are  predicated  on  the  assistance  of  multiple  NOC  and  IOCs.  Further  the  political  instability  and  conflict  with  Sudan  will  likely  

hinder  the  ability  of  Chevron  to  mitigate  the  most  severe  voids  at  this  time.      

NO  GO  

the  political  situation  becomes  more  stable  with  Chevron  should  enter  South  Sudan.  

NEXT  STEPS  

Page 32: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

32  

APPENDIX

Page 33: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Assumptions  for  Chad  Valuation  Estimated  reserves  of  5  billion  barrels  25%  Chevron  stake  Ordinary  cost  of  $20/barrel  Ordinary  cost  of  capital  of  10%  

33  

At  a  cost  of  $20/barrel  and  r=10% 13,042,954,773 $                 At  a  cost  of  $25/barrel  and  r=10% 11,750,641,101 $                

At  a  cost  of  $30/barrel  and  r=15% 8,846,408,036 $                     At  a  cost  of  $20/barrel  and  r=12% 12,181,966,641 $                

VaR  with Capital  Cost  increase  of  2% 860,988,132 $                            

VaR  with Operating  Cost  increase  of  25% 1,292,313,671 $                    

Page 34: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

34  

Kazakhstan Net Income Impact Calculations

Pipeline  Capacity  Chevron  is  working  with  a  consortium  to  expand  pipeline  capacity,  which  is  expected  to  finish  in  2015,  the  expansion  of  the  pipeline  is  expected  to  take  place  around  the  same  time  as  expansion  of  the  Tengiz  Oil  Field  which  should  provide  250k-­‐300k  barrels  of  oil  per  day  

ional  production  output.    150k  /  day  x  $100  per  barrel  -­‐  $12  per  operating  cost  per  barrel  x  365  days  in  a  year  =  ~  $4.9  billion  /year    Shortage  of  Engineers  According  to  a  report  by  BAH  http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Capital_Project_Execution.pdf  executives  in  the  oil  and  gas  industry  estimate  that  due  to  current  shortages  in  engineers  and  other  qualified  workers  traditional  contractors  can  managed  70%  of  planned  future  production.    Another  report  by  Time  magazine  says  the  shortage  of  engineers  global  and  in  the  US  is  approximately  10%,  however,  Kazakhstan  is  likely  much  worse  due  to  the  tertiary  %  of  gross  population  being  2.23x  less  than  the  United  States  (World  Bank  Data)  .    Using  the  above  data  we  can  estimate  the  potential  cost  to  Chevron  due  to  a  lack  of  qualified  engineers.      A  30%  reduction  in  planned  future  activities  x    1.223  (  assumes  the  30%  reduction  is  based    on  a  10%  shortage  in  the  US  which  when  

3)  x    150k  (future  production  expansion  in  the  Tengiz  Oil  field)  x  $  100  per  barrel  -­‐  $12  in  operating  costs  =  ~$1.8  billion/year.    Lack  of  quality  suppliers  When  S.  Sudan  broke  away  from  Sudan  supplies  and  equipment  for  upstream  production  were  stranded  at  the  border  and  oil  production  in  S.  Sudan  decline  by  5%  immediately.    We  assume  a  similar  decline  is  possible  in  Kazakhstan  due  to  the  fact  that  most  equipment  and  suppliers  are  imported  by  Chevron.    291k  barrels/day  (currently  extracted)  x  .05  x  $88  (see  above  calculation)  x  365  =    $.47  Billion  

Page 35: Georgetown SFS - Chevron FDI Risk in Emerging Markets Strategy

Business    Case   Kazakhstan  Analysis   Chad  Analysis   South  Sudan  Analysis   Recommendation  

Chad Financial Stability Report: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11299.pdf Chevron in Chad Fact Sheet: http://www.chevron.com/documents/pdf/chadfactsheet.pdf Chevron 2011 10k Chevron 2011 Annual Report Supplements

Petronas http://www.25degrees.net/index.php/component/option,com_zine/Itemid,123/id,593/lang,en/view,article/ World Bank Doing Business in Chad 2012 Report: http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/chad/ Local Employees in Chad and Cameroon EssonChad: www.essochad.com/Chad-‐English/PA/Files/31_ch9.pdf Economist Intelligence Unit 2011 Chad Country Report Economist Intelligence Unit 2012 Chad Country Report Government of South Sudan webside: www.goss.org

http://bakerinstitute.org/events/the-‐changing-‐role-‐of-‐national-‐oil-‐companies-‐in-‐international-‐energy-‐markets Google Finance Reuters  International  Energy  Study  

35  

Sources