general trends in skill supply and demand on the labour market
DESCRIPTION
Presentation by Antonio Ranieri (Senior Expert, Cedefop) on the occasion of the EESC LMO conference on 'Excluded or included' in Brussels on 6 November 2012.TRANSCRIPT
1
General trends in skill supply and demand on the labour market
Considerations regarding the future of low skilled employment
Antonio Ranieri
Brussels, 6 November 2012
Young workers 15-29 (-11%)
…but also 30-39 (-5%)
Low educated
workers (-13%)
Men (-3,3%)
more than
woman (-0,2%)
More than -10%
Ireland, Bulgaria,
Latvia, Spain, and
Greece
Skilled manual (-12.5%) and
Elementary occupations (-7%)
Construction (-13%)
Manufacturing (-10%)
COUNTRIES
OCCUPATIONS
EDUCATION
GENDER
AGE
SECTORS
Excluded or included?
Distributional impact of the crisis on Employment
National more
than immigrant
NATIONALITY
Distributional impact of the crisis - Education
-2%
-13%
-3%
9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
TOTAL LOW MEDIUM HIGH
The impact of the crisis on the European labour market Employment growth (%) by education (2008-2011)
Distributional impact of the crisis - Education
65.8%
48.1%
70.5%
83.7%
TOTAL
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
Employment rate by education level 2011
Source: Eurostat, LFSSource: Eurostat, LFS
-2,7%
-2,1%
-1,7%
Change2008-11
-7,0%
-12,5%
8,5%
0,4%
Elementary
Skilled manual
Skilled non manual
High skilled
The impact of the crisis - Employment growth (%) by broad occupational skill levels 2008-2011
Distributional impact of the crisis - Occupations
Strong increase high
education almost
balanced by others
-7 million of
which only
9% high
education
1,0
0,6
0,3
0,6
Some Severe Very severe Total (average)
Employment rate by level of disability Concentration index (impairment/others)
Source: Eurostat, LFS - Ad-hoc module 2002
3 criteria: kind of work, amount of work that can be done, and mobility to and from work
20% ?
39% ?
Impact of recession on the employment in EU-27+
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Million jobs crisis
5,5 million job losses
8 million new jobs
forecast
5 million
job losses
Cedefop’s economic recovery scenario
-20 0 20 40 60 80
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
All qualifications
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
All qualifications
Millions
Expansion demand
Replacementdemand
Demand for qualification 2010-2020
…but significant
replacement needs
…low qualification
continue to decline
Demand for occupations 2010-2020
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Millions
Employment growth Replacelemt demand
0,5%
3,5% 3,5%
4,2%
3,7% 3,7%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
4,0%
4,5%
Impairment Other
EDUCATION OCCUPATION SECTOR
Source: Eurostat, LFS - Reference age: 15+
STRUCTURAL COMPOSITION EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
Employment growth projections (%) 2010-2020
Is exclusion structural?