general election opinion poll...2020/05/31 · poll, with quotas set and weights allocated on age,...

General ElectionOpinion PollMay 2020

2

Methodology and Weighting

/ RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ online between Thursday 21st and Wednesday 27th May.

/ A online approach was used, among our bespoke online panel RED C Live.

/ Interviews are conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults.

/ Panellists were chosen at random to complete the poll, with quotas set and weights allocated on age, gender, class, region, education level & working status to ensure a nationally representative sample.

/ A further past vote quota and weight is included that looks at how people on our panel voted at the last election (gathered at the time) and controls this to ensure it matches the actual results.

/ In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.

Sample is drawn by RED C’s own online panel, RED C Live, that consists of over 40,000 participants, recruited from online and offline means.

RED C are proud to have such a high quality resource in the market place

✓ Unlike most generic panels, our panellist are given fair reward for their time helping to ensure the highest levels of engagement and quality of response across our surveys.

✓ The RED C Live panel is fully owned by RED C. This ensures that panel members are not over-interviewed, enabling us to provide the highest quality standards to our clients.

✓ RED C uses a number of quota controls outside of age, gender and class, to ensure accuracy – including past vote behaviour, working status, & education.

RED C have the highest online research quality standards in the industry

Pre-ScreeningAll respondents are pre-screened and invited to take part in the survey based on the information held on them in the panel.InvitesPanelists are recruited for surveys a maximum of 3 times per month for ad hoc projects and once every 3 months for tracker surveys. Fair RewardWe pay respondents €1 for every 5 minutes of survey completion, much higher than the market rate

Logic TrapsWe have inbuilt logic questions and failures at these questions are rejected.

Time DelaysAll surveys have in-built time delays from the appearance of questions to the presentation of response options.

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The Move to Online PollingRED C were delighted with the accuracy of our polling for the Business Post at the recent General Election 2020. The accuracy of our polls underlines the quality of our offering.

During the campaign we actually conducted 4 polls in total, two that were run on our telephone omnibus and published in the Business Post on the 26th January and the 2nd February, while we also conducted two further polls online using our RED Line omnibus service.

The online polls were run in order to for us to test how accurately we could predict the result of the Election using an online approach, which is very commonly used in other countries such as the UK.

The results of these online polling tests were also highly successful, with an average error of 0.80%, at a similar level to the exit poll which had 5000 interviews conducted on the day.

These results back up the quality credentials both of the RED C Live online panel generally, and also of the RED C sampling and quality control team tasked with ensuring we reach a representative sample through that panel.

It has proved that we can, with our expert knowledge of the political landscape in Ireland and our strict quality controls, utilise a more cost effective and flexible online approach for polling moving forward.

Based on the success of these tests we have moved our regular tracking polls to a more cost effective online approach each month to measure trends in voters support for parties, with possible supplementary telephone polls where required.

Final Online Poll Test During GE 2020

General Election

5

First Preference Vote Intention – 31st May 2020

Fine Gael

35% =

Sinn Féin

27% =

Fianna Fáil

15% +1

Ind. Candidates

7% -1

SocialDemocrats

4% +1

Labour

3% =

If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)

(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)

Undecided Voters

11%

Solidarity-PBP

2% =

Green

5% -1Aontú

1% -1

Change since 3rd

May 2020Other

1% +1

6

First Preference Vote Intention – 31st May 2020If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)

(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote)

Other Parties 1%

21

%

24

%

24

%

12

%

7%

3%

5%

1% 2

%

0%

21

%

25

%

22

%

12

%

7%

3% 4

%

3%

2%

0%

34

%

28

%

18

%

5%

5%

3%

3%

2%

2%

0%

35

%

27

%

14

%

8%

6%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

35

%

27

%

15

%

7%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Fine Gael

35%

Fianna Fáil

15%

Sinn Féin

27%

Ind. Candidate

7%Labour

3%

Solidarity-PBP

2%

SocialDemocrats

4%Green

5%Aontú

1%

Feb2nd

Election 2020

Mar26th

May3rd

Renua

0%

Undecided Voters

12%

May31st

7

Party 1st Preference Vote Intention X DemographicsIf the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted)

31st May 2020 Gender Age Social Class Region

Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE DublinRest of Leinster Munster

Conn/Ulster

Fine Gael 35% 34% 36% 28% 32% 45% 43% 24% 38% 41% 27% 34%

Sinn Féin 27% 27% 27% 29% 36% 16% 15% 42% 25% 28% 25% 33%

Fianna Fáil 15% 16% 13% 12% 12% 19% 16% 12% 10% 14% 22% 13%

An Independent Candidate 7% 6% 9% 6% 9% 7% 6% 10% 4% 4% 14% 9%

Green Party 5% 5% 5% 8% 4% 3% 7% 2% 9% 1% 4% 4%

Social Democrats 4% 3% 4% 6% 3% 3% 6% 2% 4% 4% 3% 4%

Labour Party 3% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 1%

Solidarity/ People Before Profit (including Rise)

2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 1% -

Aontú 1% 2% 1% 3% 0 1% 0 2% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Note: Results on sub sample of the population are based on a much smaller sample size per group, and as such have a much higher margin of error. The results should therefore be treated with caution

Other Parties 1%

8

First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

GE

201

6

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

July

'17

Sep

'17

Oct

'17

No

v '1

7

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Ap

r '1

8

May

'18

Sep

'18

Oct

'18

No

v '1

8

Jan

'19

Feb

'19

Mar

'19

Ap

r '1

9

May

'19

Sep

t '1

9

Oct

'19

No

v '1

9

Jan

'20

Feb

'20

GE2

02

0

Mar

'20

Ap

r '2

0

May

'20


(Base: All adults 18+ who will vote )

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Independent

Solidarity-PBP

Social Democrats

Confidence and supply agreement

reached

Leo Varadkarbecomes leader of FG and Taoiseach

Aontú

27%

35%

5%

15%

2%3%

GE2020

Outbreak of Covid-

19

1%

7%

4%

Other Parties 1%

9

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2020

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Independent



Solidarity-PBP

Social Democrats

Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renuaseparately

Other

Aontú

Renua

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

27%

35%

15%

2%

4%

2020

7%

Other Parties 1%

5%

3%

10

First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%



Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renuaseparately

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

Independent

Solidarity-PBP

Social Democrats

Renua

Ind Alliance

Other

Aontú

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

27%

35%

7%

15%

2%

4%5%

Other Parties 1%

3%

Covid-19

Attitudes Towards Covid-19 Situations

44%51%

27% 31%

66%

20%

77%

27% 36%

57%

Want to see the lifting of restrictions happen more quickly

Happy with the current

Government roadmap for re-

opening

Not concerned about a second peak of Covid 19

Concerned about a

second peak

Would not download and use an HSE Covid19 tracing app

Would downloadand use an HSE

Covid 19 tracing app

Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Corona Virus outbreak and of possible government formations. For each topic we have

provided opposite opinions that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?

Wages subsidy & unemployment benefits are costing the country to much and need to be wound down

Wages subsidy & unemployment benefits are essential and should

be kept in place until the end of year

Attitude towards COVID-19 wage subsidy and unemployment benefit

(Base: All adults 18+)

14%

4%

7% 8%

11%9% 10% 9%

5%

17%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Wages subsidy and unemployment benefits are costing the country too much and need to be wound down as people start to get back to work

Wages subsidy and unemployment benefits are

essential and should be kept in place until the end of year

to support the economy

Total Men Women

18-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE Dublin R of L Muster Conn/ Ulster

FG FF SF IND GRN

Gender Age Social Class Region Vote Intention

5.8

Average

44% 51%

5.8 5.56 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.9 6

55.8 6

5.4 5.7 5.8 6.26.9

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10

Q5. Now please let us know your views of a number on aspects of the current government’s handling of the Covid-19 and the lifting of restrictions. For each topic we have provided opposite opinions

that other people have made, and we want you to show us where you stand between the two ends of the scale?

Subsidy & Benefits

Should be kept to

nd year

Subsidy & Benefits

should be wound down

Don’t Know 5%

Attitude towards speed of lifting COVID-19 restrictions


9%

4% 5% 4%

9%6%

9%12% 11%

29%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Want to see the lifting of restrictions happen more quickly

Happy with the current Government roadmap

for re-opening businesses and social activity

Total Men Women


FG FF SF IND GRN


6.9

Average

31% 66%

6.96.4

7.46.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.1 7 7 6.9 7.2 7.1 6.8 7

7.9

123456789

10



Happy with

road map

Lift restrictions

more quickly

Don’t Know 3%

Concern over a second peak of COVID-19 following easing of restrictions


4%2% 3% 4%

7% 6%

12%

17%

11%

30%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Not at all concerned about a second peak of Covid 19 infections after restrictions are eased

Extremely concerned about a second peak of

Covid 19 infections after restrictions are eased

Total Men Women


FG FF SF IND GRN


7.5

Average

20% 77%

7.5 7.27.8 7.4 7.3

7.8 7.5 7.5 7.47.9

7.4 7.27.8 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.9

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10



Extreme Concern

Not at all Concerned

Don’t Know 3%

Willingness to download the HSE COVID-19 tracing app


14%

3% 4% 3%

12%

7% 8% 8% 7%

28%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Would definitely not download and use an HSE Covi-19 tracing app on my phone

Would actively downloadand use an HSE Covid-19 tracing app on my phone

Total Men Women


FG FF SF IND GRN


6.5

Average

36% 57%

6.5 6.26.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 7

6.16.7 6.5 6.2 6.5

7.2 6.85.9

6.77.3

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10



Would download

app

Would not download

App

Don’t Know 7%

Concern over Green Party's 7% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target on Economy


7%4%

6% 5%

11%

7%

11%8% 7%

22%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Unconcerned that the Green Party’s target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 7 per cent a year will hurt our economic recovery post Covid 19

Concerned that the Green Party’s target of reducing

greenhouse gas emissions by 7 per cent a year will hurt our

economic recovery post Covid 19

Total Men Women


FG FF SF IND GRN


6.5

Average

33% 56%

6.5 6.6 6.5

5.1

6.87.4

6.3 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.36.9 7 7.3

6.77.4

3.7

123456789

10



Concerned for impact

on recovery

Not Concerned for impact

on recovery

Don’t Know 11%

general election opinion poll...2020/05/31 · poll, with quotas set and weights allocated on age,...

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