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TRANSCRIPT
Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas March 7, 2013
Los Angeles, CA
Contents
1
Economic Trends
Market Dynamics
Building a Sustainable Organization
Integrated Partnerships
Economic Trends
2
3
Market Size & Growth Rate
•Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012
LATIN-AMERICA
2012 Size: 14.4 m TEU
2013 HH Growth: ~ 2.8%
TRANS-ATLANTIC
2012 Size: 7.6 m TEU
2013 HH Growth: ~ 4.2%
ASIA-EUROPE
2012 Size: 28.1 m TEU
2013 HH Growth: ~ -0.9%
TRANS-PACIFIC
2012 Size: 21.8 m TEU
2013 HH Growth: ~ 4.1%
INTRA-ASIA
Est. 2012 size: 35.3 m TEU
2013 Overall Growth: ~ 4.3%
Overall Growth outlook is expected to be positive in 2013 for all trades. Asia – Europe trade projected to be near stagnant. Intra Asia is anticipated to have the highest growth
•Note: 1. Market size is based on GI Dec 2012. • 2. TA, ASEU, and TP HH growth rate is based on Drewry CFQ Q4 2012, while IA and LTAM growth rate is based on GI Dec 2012
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
10.2%
5.3%
2013F
3.9%
7.7%
2012F
7.8%
3.2%
2011
3.8%
7.3%
2010 2006
11.0%
5.4%
2007
4.0% 2.8%
2008
-9.9%
-0.7%
2009
14.0%
5.2% 4.6%
2005
10.9%
2004
4.9%
13.9%
2003
3.6%
13.4%
2002
2.9%
11.1%
2001
3.8%
2.3%
2000
4.8%
11.2%
4
Note: EIU data forecasts used for 2012 and 2013 Source: Drewry, Seabury, Clarksons, IMF WEO Sep2011/Jan 2012, EIU Global Forecasting
Global GDP Container Demand Growth
Global GDP and Container Demand Growth
Containerized trade has continued to grow in 2012 but at a more moderate pace
5
This is largely driven by slower global growth in 2012 due to uncertainties arising out of the European government debt issues
Source: IMF WEO Sep2011/Jan2012, EIU Global Forecasting
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
2003 2002 2008 2010 2009
-0.8%
1.9%
2016F
3.2%
2015F 2007
6.9%
2014F 2006
8.2%
2013F 2005 2000 2012F 2004 2001 2011
GDP Growth CAGR (2001-2007)
US Global EU27 China India
India 8.0%
China 11.2%
Global 4.4% US 2.6% EU27 2.6%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jul-1
1 O
ct-1
1 D
ec-1
1
Apr-
11
Jan-
11
Oct
-10
Jul-1
0 Ap
r-10
Ja
n-10
O
ct-0
9 Ju
l-09
Apr-
09
Jan-
09
Oct
-08
Apr-
08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Jan-
07
Apr-
07
Jul-0
7
6
Consumption still positive in US and China while European consumers remain cautious
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jul-0
8 Ap
r-08
Ja
n-08
O
ct-0
7 Ju
l-07
Jan-
07
Oct
-08
Apr-
07
Apr-
10
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Apr-
09
Jul-1
1
Oct
-09
Oct
-11
Apr-
11
Jan-
11
Jul-1
0 O
ct-1
0
Jan-
09
US, China
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
EU27 US China EU27
Consumer Confidence Index Retail Y-o-Y Growth Rate
US China EU27
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Census Bureau, and Eurostat
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Mar
-12
Jan-
12
Nov
-11
Nov
-10
Sep-
10
Jul-1
0
May
-10
Mar
-10
Jan-
10
Nov
-09
Sep-
09
Jul-1
1
May
-11
Mar
-11
Jan-
11
Sep-
11
7
Resulting in recent improvement in freight rates. However, rising bunker costs are offsetting some of the rate improvements
Source: Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), Bunkerworld, UBS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Mar
-12
Jan-
12
Nov
-11
Sep-
11
Jul-1
1 M
ay-1
1 M
ar-1
1 Ja
n-11
N
ov-1
0 Se
p-10
Ju
l-10
May
-10
Mar
-10
Jan-
10
Nov
-09
Oct
-09
SCFI Spot Rates Bunker Spot Rate
USWC ASEU
8
-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
2001 2006 2007 2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2009 2000 2013F 2012F 2011
9
Demand and Supply Growth Rate Forecast
Oversupply will extend into 2013 due to orders of >8,000 TEU vessels during 2010 and 2011
Supply Growth Demand Growth
Source: Alphaliner, Drewry, Clarksons, Seabury, MDS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2Q 13
1Q 13
4Q 12
3Q 12
2Q 12
1Q 12
50
550
400
150
500
3Q 13
1Q 15
0 4Q 15
3Q 15
450
250
300
350
1Q 14
4Q 13
4Q 14
2Q 14
2Q 15
3Q 14
200
100
10
Lack of recent newbuild orders will result in diminishing deliveries from 2H 2013
Source: MDS March2012
% of Global Fleet Scheduled Newbuild
Thousand TEU Delivery peaked in 2Q
2012
11
Source: Alphaliner
Vessel Delivery by Carrier
12
13
Challenging container shipping environment is forcing liners to manage capacity
Market Dynamics
14
Market Dynamics
Significant industry losses have forced carriers to drastically reduce costs
The formation of super consortia is enabling
carriers to operate bigger ships at
reduced slot costs • MSC and CMA • G6 Asia – Eur & USEC • Evergreen, CHKY, China Shipping, Zim
Ambitious cost savings goals have been
announced
USD500 million
USD400 million
USD350 million
USD300 million
15 15
Carriers are more conscious of
equipment matchback opportunities in order
to reduce repositioning costs
Trade flows to/from Asia have shifted significantly….
Vietnam
Repositioning
Japan
North China South China
UAE Malaysia
Shifting pattern in Asia is producing a significant increase in equipment repositioning as inbound flows are growing in countries other than China where the outbound demand is highest….
US Exports growing to SEA, M East which need longer transit
Boxes need to be repositioned to major exporting regions e.g. North China
Top EB countries are not growing their WB volumes as fast as other Asian countries, creating increasing mismatch of in/ out volumes in Asia
This relatively recent shift in flow creates longer equipment turn, drives up repositioning cost to get the boxes to China where they are needed to support outbound demand, and increases the size of the equipment fleet carriers must have to service the market….increasing costs.
16
World Containerized Trade Outlook World containerized trade estimated to have moderate growth this year. TP growth is
expected to pick up in 2013
17
Containerized Trade Growth
• Source: Equity analysts, shipping consultants
Transpacific HH Trade Growth
Asia-Europe HH Trade Growth
Global Trade Growth
-13.9%
17.2%
0.4%2.4%
4.9%
-4.2%
15.0%
8.3%9.3%
8.4%
-15.1%
16.0%
5.9% 5.5%6.4%
-7.1%
15.3%
6.9% 6.8% 6.7%
2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E
Intra-Asia
Global
Asia-Europe (HH)
Transpacific (HH)
2011 2012 2013 Clarksons** (Feb 21, 2012) 3.3% 2.8% 6.1% Alphaliner* (Jan 10, 2012) 2.8% 1.5% 6.3% Drewry (Dec 22, 2011) 3.9% 2.0% -
2011 2012 2013 Clarksons (Feb 21, 2012) -0.4% 4.2% 6.1% Alphaliner* (Jan 10, 2012) -0.8% 4.6% 5.1% Drewry (Dec 22, 2011) 0.4% 3.1% PIERS (Dec 2, 2011) 0.2% 2.7% 4.9%
Note: *Alphaliner TP is FE-US, ASEU is FE-Europe **Clarksons’ growth is Far East to Europe
2011 2012 2013
Alphaliner (Mar 20, 2012) 7.7% 6.5% 7.5%
Clarksons (Feb 21, 2012) 7.9% 7.7% 8.3%
Drewry (Dec 22, 2011) 6.5% 5.4% -
JP Morgan (Nov 29, 2011) 6.4% 4.5% 6.3%
Global Insights (Sep 30, 2011) 6.9% 6.8% 6.7%
17
18
Panama Canal Expansion: Update
• Larger vessels with increased deadweight
• Provide the capability to serve USEC from Asia
• Post Panamax trade patterns expected to shift, benefiting Atlantic Coast Ports
• Upgraded infrastructure is required to increase capacity and efficiently move products for global import and export customers
Building a Sustainable Organization
19
20
NOL Efficiency Leadership Program – Gaining the Edge
• Deep customer outreach
• Innovation – Double-stack trains – Post-panamax vessels – Ocean guarantee – Supply-chain products
Efficiency Leadership
Program
NOL’s unique strengths Recent strategic investments
• Re-modeling our IT: Completed SAP Finance module
• Modernizing our fleet: • Invested in 34 large modern containerships (US$4 billion in last 4 years)
• Challenging the way we do business today
• Driving for smarter ways to accomplish our tasks
• Discerning and meeting customer needs more effectively
•Q4 2011 through 2012 •$500 Million Goal
Fleet Renewal
Note: 5 out of the 10 x 14,000 TEU vessels for delivery between 2013 and 2014 will be chartered out to MOL
Building a modern and cost-competitive fleet, six 10,000 TEU vessels already delivered in 2012
22
Service Options: Investing in our Network • New CGG Facility
43 Acres Container Capacity: 1,600 Stalls, 400 Decked Gates: 4 Inbound/3 Outbound M&R: 19,000 Sq. Ft. Shop 10 Bay Chassis/ Container Repair 700 Gate moves daily
• Fleet Expansion 34 Vessels ordered Delivery between Q4 2011 and 2014 Best fuel efficiency in the industry 10x14,000 TEU Vessels
• Productivity Improvements at GGS Crane Backreach Opens up more traffic lanes “under the hook” Better traffic flow, increased efficiency Future growth Increased safety
23
Chassis Divestiture - What is APL doing…
• APL started phasing out its container chassis fleet in 2012 and will conclude by 2014.
• By relying on providers who specialize in chassis management, this will ensure that equipment is deployed more efficiently.
• In August 2012, APL began a pilot program at terminals in Denver and Salt Lake City.
24
APL’s Carbon Reduction Statement
APL’s 2015 goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with cargo
transportation and handling to 30% below 2009 emissions levels.
25
Container Shipping & Emissions
26
Shipping is the most environmental friendly and energy efficient form of transportation
27
Eco-responsible operations for a sustainable future
• Enforcement of Emission Control Area (ECA)
• Speed Optimization, schedule, weather routing and best practices to reduce CO2 emissions
• Low Sulphur Fuel
• Cold Ironing
• Seawater Scrubber
• Ballast Water Treatment
• Environmentally friendly paint on ship hulls
• Voluntary Speed Reduction in Southern California waters to reduce emissions
• Eliminating drayage thru on-dock rail
• Received Premier Marine Environment Award
Continued Environmental Initiatives
27
APL New Builds - Environmental Features
28
29
Origin services Destination services
Our value chain
Warehouse Land Consol Terminals Container shipping Terminals Deconsol Land Warehouse
As supply chains become more complex, our “total value chain“ proposition offers strong advantages for customers.
NOL’s container shipping and logistics businesses form a value chain which offers customers reliable, time-definite and cost-effective services from origin to destination.
Visibility
Value Chain
29
30
•Export Industry Award •Top Container Shipping Line
•Asian Freight & Supply Chain Awards •Best Shipping Line for Transpacific
•Seatrade Asia Awards •The Environmental Protection Award
•Hamburg Media (Logistics Week & Log.India) •Best Shipping Line Award
•Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach •Clean Air Action Plan Award
Industry Awards (2012)
•Port Metro Vancouver •Blue Circle Award
•Logistics Management •Quest for Quality Award – Ocean Carrier
•United States Coast Guard •Marine Environmental Protection Award
•Port of Seattle •Green Gateway Partners Award - Gold
Integrated Partnerships
31
Integrated Partnerships
32
Building a Sustainable Organization
Collaboration
Cost Efficiency
Innovation
Planning
Thank You