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Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas March 7, 2013 Los Angeles, CA

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Page 1: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas March 7, 2013

Los Angeles, CA

Page 2: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Contents

1

Economic Trends

Market Dynamics

Building a Sustainable Organization

Integrated Partnerships

Page 3: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Economic Trends

2

Page 4: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

3

Market Size & Growth Rate

•Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012

LATIN-AMERICA

2012 Size: 14.4 m TEU

2013 HH Growth: ~ 2.8%

TRANS-ATLANTIC

2012 Size: 7.6 m TEU

2013 HH Growth: ~ 4.2%

ASIA-EUROPE

2012 Size: 28.1 m TEU

2013 HH Growth: ~ -0.9%

TRANS-PACIFIC

2012 Size: 21.8 m TEU

2013 HH Growth: ~ 4.1%

INTRA-ASIA

Est. 2012 size: 35.3 m TEU

2013 Overall Growth: ~ 4.3%

Overall Growth outlook is expected to be positive in 2013 for all trades. Asia – Europe trade projected to be near stagnant. Intra Asia is anticipated to have the highest growth

•Note: 1. Market size is based on GI Dec 2012. • 2. TA, ASEU, and TP HH growth rate is based on Drewry CFQ Q4 2012, while IA and LTAM growth rate is based on GI Dec 2012

Page 5: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

10.2%

5.3%

2013F

3.9%

7.7%

2012F

7.8%

3.2%

2011

3.8%

7.3%

2010 2006

11.0%

5.4%

2007

4.0% 2.8%

2008

-9.9%

-0.7%

2009

14.0%

5.2% 4.6%

2005

10.9%

2004

4.9%

13.9%

2003

3.6%

13.4%

2002

2.9%

11.1%

2001

3.8%

2.3%

2000

4.8%

11.2%

4

Note: EIU data forecasts used for 2012 and 2013 Source: Drewry, Seabury, Clarksons, IMF WEO Sep2011/Jan 2012, EIU Global Forecasting

Global GDP Container Demand Growth

Global GDP and Container Demand Growth

Containerized trade has continued to grow in 2012 but at a more moderate pace

Page 6: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

5

This is largely driven by slower global growth in 2012 due to uncertainties arising out of the European government debt issues

Source: IMF WEO Sep2011/Jan2012, EIU Global Forecasting

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

2003 2002 2008 2010 2009

-0.8%

1.9%

2016F

3.2%

2015F 2007

6.9%

2014F 2006

8.2%

2013F 2005 2000 2012F 2004 2001 2011

GDP Growth CAGR (2001-2007)

US Global EU27 China India

India 8.0%

China 11.2%

Global 4.4% US 2.6% EU27 2.6%

Page 7: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jul-1

1 O

ct-1

1 D

ec-1

1

Apr-

11

Jan-

11

Oct

-10

Jul-1

0 Ap

r-10

Ja

n-10

O

ct-0

9 Ju

l-09

Apr-

09

Jan-

09

Oct

-08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Jan-

07

Apr-

07

Jul-0

7

6

Consumption still positive in US and China while European consumers remain cautious

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jul-0

8 Ap

r-08

Ja

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ct-0

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l-07

Jan-

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Oct

-08

Apr-

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Apr-

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Jul-0

9

Jan-

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Apr-

09

Jul-1

1

Oct

-09

Oct

-11

Apr-

11

Jan-

11

Jul-1

0 O

ct-1

0

Jan-

09

US, China

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

EU27 US China EU27

Consumer Confidence Index Retail Y-o-Y Growth Rate

US China EU27

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Census Bureau, and Eurostat

Page 8: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Mar

-12

Jan-

12

Nov

-11

Nov

-10

Sep-

10

Jul-1

0

May

-10

Mar

-10

Jan-

10

Nov

-09

Sep-

09

Jul-1

1

May

-11

Mar

-11

Jan-

11

Sep-

11

7

Resulting in recent improvement in freight rates. However, rising bunker costs are offsetting some of the rate improvements

Source: Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), Bunkerworld, UBS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Mar

-12

Jan-

12

Nov

-11

Sep-

11

Jul-1

1 M

ay-1

1 M

ar-1

1 Ja

n-11

N

ov-1

0 Se

p-10

Ju

l-10

May

-10

Mar

-10

Jan-

10

Nov

-09

Oct

-09

SCFI Spot Rates Bunker Spot Rate

USWC ASEU

Page 9: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

8

Page 10: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.0

2001 2006 2007 2010 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2009 2000 2013F 2012F 2011

9

Demand and Supply Growth Rate Forecast

Oversupply will extend into 2013 due to orders of >8,000 TEU vessels during 2010 and 2011

Supply Growth Demand Growth

Source: Alphaliner, Drewry, Clarksons, Seabury, MDS

Page 11: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2Q 13

1Q 13

4Q 12

3Q 12

2Q 12

1Q 12

50

550

400

150

500

3Q 13

1Q 15

0 4Q 15

3Q 15

450

250

300

350

1Q 14

4Q 13

4Q 14

2Q 14

2Q 15

3Q 14

200

100

10

Lack of recent newbuild orders will result in diminishing deliveries from 2H 2013

Source: MDS March2012

% of Global Fleet Scheduled Newbuild

Thousand TEU Delivery peaked in 2Q

2012

Page 12: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

11

Source: Alphaliner

Vessel Delivery by Carrier

Page 13: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

12

Page 14: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

13

Challenging container shipping environment is forcing liners to manage capacity

Page 15: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Market Dynamics

14

Page 16: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Market Dynamics

Significant industry losses have forced carriers to drastically reduce costs

The formation of super consortia is enabling

carriers to operate bigger ships at

reduced slot costs • MSC and CMA • G6 Asia – Eur & USEC • Evergreen, CHKY, China Shipping, Zim

Ambitious cost savings goals have been

announced

USD500 million

USD400 million

USD350 million

USD300 million

15 15

Carriers are more conscious of

equipment matchback opportunities in order

to reduce repositioning costs

Page 17: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Trade flows to/from Asia have shifted significantly….

Vietnam

Repositioning

Japan

North China South China

UAE Malaysia

Shifting pattern in Asia is producing a significant increase in equipment repositioning as inbound flows are growing in countries other than China where the outbound demand is highest….

US Exports growing to SEA, M East which need longer transit

Boxes need to be repositioned to major exporting regions e.g. North China

Top EB countries are not growing their WB volumes as fast as other Asian countries, creating increasing mismatch of in/ out volumes in Asia

This relatively recent shift in flow creates longer equipment turn, drives up repositioning cost to get the boxes to China where they are needed to support outbound demand, and increases the size of the equipment fleet carriers must have to service the market….increasing costs.

16

Page 18: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

World Containerized Trade Outlook World containerized trade estimated to have moderate growth this year. TP growth is

expected to pick up in 2013

17

Containerized Trade Growth

• Source: Equity analysts, shipping consultants

Transpacific HH Trade Growth

Asia-Europe HH Trade Growth

Global Trade Growth

-13.9%

17.2%

0.4%2.4%

4.9%

-4.2%

15.0%

8.3%9.3%

8.4%

-15.1%

16.0%

5.9% 5.5%6.4%

-7.1%

15.3%

6.9% 6.8% 6.7%

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E

Intra-Asia

Global

Asia-Europe (HH)

Transpacific (HH)

2011 2012 2013 Clarksons** (Feb 21, 2012) 3.3% 2.8% 6.1% Alphaliner* (Jan 10, 2012) 2.8% 1.5% 6.3% Drewry (Dec 22, 2011) 3.9% 2.0% -

2011 2012 2013 Clarksons (Feb 21, 2012) -0.4% 4.2% 6.1% Alphaliner* (Jan 10, 2012) -0.8% 4.6% 5.1% Drewry (Dec 22, 2011) 0.4% 3.1% PIERS (Dec 2, 2011) 0.2% 2.7% 4.9%

Note: *Alphaliner TP is FE-US, ASEU is FE-Europe **Clarksons’ growth is Far East to Europe

2011 2012 2013

Alphaliner (Mar 20, 2012) 7.7% 6.5% 7.5%

Clarksons (Feb 21, 2012) 7.9% 7.7% 8.3%

Drewry (Dec 22, 2011) 6.5% 5.4% -

JP Morgan (Nov 29, 2011) 6.4% 4.5% 6.3%

Global Insights (Sep 30, 2011) 6.9% 6.8% 6.7%

17

Page 19: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

18

Panama Canal Expansion: Update

• Larger vessels with increased deadweight

• Provide the capability to serve USEC from Asia

• Post Panamax trade patterns expected to shift, benefiting Atlantic Coast Ports

• Upgraded infrastructure is required to increase capacity and efficiently move products for global import and export customers

Page 20: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Building a Sustainable Organization

19

Page 21: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

20

NOL Efficiency Leadership Program – Gaining the Edge

• Deep customer outreach

• Innovation – Double-stack trains – Post-panamax vessels – Ocean guarantee – Supply-chain products

Efficiency Leadership

Program

NOL’s unique strengths Recent strategic investments

• Re-modeling our IT: Completed SAP Finance module

• Modernizing our fleet: • Invested in 34 large modern containerships (US$4 billion in last 4 years)

• Challenging the way we do business today

• Driving for smarter ways to accomplish our tasks

• Discerning and meeting customer needs more effectively

•Q4 2011 through 2012 •$500 Million Goal

Page 22: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Fleet Renewal

Note: 5 out of the 10 x 14,000 TEU vessels for delivery between 2013 and 2014 will be chartered out to MOL

Building a modern and cost-competitive fleet, six 10,000 TEU vessels already delivered in 2012

Page 23: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

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Page 24: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Service Options: Investing in our Network • New CGG Facility

43 Acres Container Capacity: 1,600 Stalls, 400 Decked Gates: 4 Inbound/3 Outbound M&R: 19,000 Sq. Ft. Shop 10 Bay Chassis/ Container Repair 700 Gate moves daily

• Fleet Expansion 34 Vessels ordered Delivery between Q4 2011 and 2014 Best fuel efficiency in the industry 10x14,000 TEU Vessels

• Productivity Improvements at GGS Crane Backreach Opens up more traffic lanes “under the hook” Better traffic flow, increased efficiency Future growth Increased safety

23

Page 25: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Chassis Divestiture - What is APL doing…

• APL started phasing out its container chassis fleet in 2012 and will conclude by 2014.

• By relying on providers who specialize in chassis management, this will ensure that equipment is deployed more efficiently.

• In August 2012, APL began a pilot program at terminals in Denver and Salt Lake City.

24

Page 26: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

APL’s Carbon Reduction Statement

APL’s 2015 goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with cargo

transportation and handling to 30% below 2009 emissions levels.

25

Page 27: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Container Shipping & Emissions

26

Shipping is the most environmental friendly and energy efficient form of transportation

Page 28: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

27

Eco-responsible operations for a sustainable future

• Enforcement of Emission Control Area (ECA)

• Speed Optimization, schedule, weather routing and best practices to reduce CO2 emissions

• Low Sulphur Fuel

• Cold Ironing

• Seawater Scrubber

• Ballast Water Treatment

• Environmentally friendly paint on ship hulls

• Voluntary Speed Reduction in Southern California waters to reduce emissions

• Eliminating drayage thru on-dock rail

• Received Premier Marine Environment Award

Continued Environmental Initiatives

27

Page 29: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

APL New Builds - Environmental Features

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Page 30: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

29

Origin services Destination services

Our value chain

Warehouse Land Consol Terminals Container shipping Terminals Deconsol Land Warehouse

As supply chains become more complex, our “total value chain“ proposition offers strong advantages for customers.

NOL’s container shipping and logistics businesses form a value chain which offers customers reliable, time-definite and cost-effective services from origin to destination.

Visibility

Value Chain

29

Page 31: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

30

•Export Industry Award •Top Container Shipping Line

•Asian Freight & Supply Chain Awards •Best Shipping Line for Transpacific

•Seatrade Asia Awards •The Environmental Protection Award

•Hamburg Media (Logistics Week & Log.India) •Best Shipping Line Award

•Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach •Clean Air Action Plan Award

Industry Awards (2012)

•Port Metro Vancouver •Blue Circle Award

•Logistics Management •Quest for Quality Award – Ocean Carrier

•United States Coast Guard •Marine Environmental Protection Award

•Port of Seattle •Green Gateway Partners Award - Gold

Page 32: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Integrated Partnerships

31

Page 33: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Integrated Partnerships

32

Building a Sustainable Organization

Collaboration

Cost Efficiency

Innovation

Planning

Page 34: Gene Seroka – APL President, Americas › downloads › RES030713-APL LATC Presentation.pdf · 3 Market Size & Growth Rate •Source: GI Dec 2012, Drewry CFQ Q4 2012 LATIN-AMERICA

Thank You