gbr tourism barometer 2012 q4

Tourism Barometer2012 Q4

Expectations of theGreek Hospitality Sector

October 2012

Survey characteristics• The Q4 Survey ran from 19 – 31 October 2012, among

hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;

• The survey was anonymous and 164 hotels completedthe online questionnaire, of which 129 fully. Thedistribution of those was as follows:– 52% are city hotels and 48% resort hotels;– 27% are 5*, 36% 4*, 21% 3*, 12% 2* and 4% 1* hotels.

• The survey includes forecasts for 2012 Q4.

• Survey results are published in the press and onwww.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer

Main Conclusions• Expectations for the last quarter of 2012 are once more very negative in

comparison with same quarter last year for both occupancy levels androom rates. Throughout 2012 the climate was negative in the hotelsector.

• Exceptions are the resort hoteliers in Crete, who are very optimistic thatoccupancy levels will improve much in Q4 compared to last year for theirown hotel units. Their room rates are expected to drop though, butoverall for the market the trend is stabilising for Q4.

• The city hoteliers in Thessaloniki are the second exception.Performance so far this year has been satisfactorily and also for the lastquarter they expect slightly better occupancy levels and slightly droppingrates resulting in a stabilising RevPAR.

• Athenian hoteliers remain very pessimistic as they forecast significantdrops in both occupancy and ARR for both their own hotels as for themarket in general.

7%

18%

19%

19%

37%

• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter withrespect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for:– their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page– the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page

How to read the Quarter meters

37% expectsstabilisation –

between -2% and +2%

18% expects anincrease -

between 2% and 5%

7% expects anincrease –

more than 5%

19% expects adecrease –

more than 5%

The needle shows theoverall expectation /

feeling1

19% expects adecrease –

between 2% and 5%

1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where theincreases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%

Survey resultsExpectations for 2012 Q4

• All hotels• City hotels

– Athens hotels– Thessaloniki hotels– Other city hotels

• Resort hotels– Crete hotels– Dodecanese hotels

• Hotels per category– 5 star hotels– 4 star hotels– 3 star hotels– 2 star hotels

Expectations for 2012 Q4

33%

17% 26%

11%

12%

«MY HOTEL»

All hotels

Forecasts for the lastquarter of 2012 areclearly pessimistic. Thehotel sector expectssignificant drops inoccupancy as well asroom rates comparedto the last quarter of2011.

In all barometers 50%or more is expectingdrops of 2% and morefor both occupancy andARR. Around a third isexpecting significantdecreases of 5% andmore.

5%7%

22%

26%40%

10%5%

31%

30%

23%

«MARKET IN GENERAL»

38%

26%

25%

1%5%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%

% of respondents that expected


36%

19% 27%

4%13%

«MY HOTEL»

City hotels

The City hoteliers arevery pessimistic for thecoming quarter as fortheir own hotels 55%expects drops inoccupancy of 2% ormore and 73%forecasts drops of 2%or more for their roomrates.

The expectation for thecity hotel market as awhole is even worse.Only 10% expects forthe market increasingoccupancy levels andonly 7% increasingroom rates.

4%7%

15%

31%

42%

7%3%

25%34%

30%


45%

34%

13%1%6%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



8%

32%24%

36%

«MY HOTEL»

Athens hotels

The Athenian hoteliersremain very pessimisticalso for the last quarterof this year. Very fewexpect increases inoccupancy and roomrates.

For their own hotels60% expects fallingoccupancy comparedto same quarter lastyear and anastonishing 80%expects falling roomrates of 2% or more. Asimilar forecast isdisplayed in thebarometers of themarket in general.

4%

16%

28%52%

4%4%

28%

32%

32%


48%32%

16%

4%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



27%

13%33%

13%

13%

«MY HOTEL»

Thessalonikihotels

Contrary to theAthenian hoteliers thesector in Thessalonikiis more optimistic,obviously supported bythe actual results so farthis year. About 73%expects stabilising orincreasing occupancylevels for Q4 2012compared to Q4 2011for their own hotels.Less optimism for theirroom rates where thebiggest segment (47%)is expecting decreasesof between 2% – 5%.For the market ingeneral hoteliers aremore pessimistic.

7%

20%

20%47%

7%

20%

7%33%

20%

20%


13%

47%20%

7%

13%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



11%4%

19%19%

48%

«MY HOTEL»

Other city hotels

The City hoteliersoutside Athens &Thessaloniki areextremely pessimisticfor the coming quarteras all barometers fortheir own hotel units aswell as for the marketin general are deeplyred coloured. Thelargest segments in allbarometers representexpected decreases of5% or more.

Very few hoteliers areoptimistic for nextquarter.

4%19%

33%

44%

4%7%

11%

26%52%


59% 30%

7%4%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



11%

18%

26%15%

31%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotels

For the resort hotelsthat are operating inQ4 46% is expectingdrops in theiroccupancy levels and58% decreasing roomrates for their ownhotels.

Similarly pessimisticare the hoteliers for themarket in general withonly 21% expectingincreases in occupancyand 16% increases fortheir room rates.

7%7%

30%20%

38%

13%

8%

37%16%

26%


30%

16% 38%

3%13%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



25%

21%33%

4%

17%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotelsin Crete

The resort hoteliers inCrete that will operatetheir hotel units in Q4are optimistic for thecoming quarter interms of occupancydevelopment. In factthe resort hoteliers inCrete are the mostoptimistic in the Q4survey. On the otherhand they expect adrop in their ARR.

For the market ingeneral the trend forQ4 consist ofstabilising occupancyand room rates overall.

13%

13%30%17%

26%

21%

13%42%

13%

13%


22%

17%35%

4%

22%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



18%

9%18%

55%

«MY HOTEL»

Resort hotelsin Dodecanese

Contrary to the resorthoteliers in Crete, thehoteliers in theDodecanese areclearly verypessimistic. Theyexpect sharplydropping occupancyrates and ARRs.

Remarkably they aremore pessimistic fortheir own hotel unitsthan for the market ingeneral.

Very few hoteliersexpect improvementsin comparison with thelast quarter of 2011.

9%

36%9%

45%

18%

27%55%


45%

9%36%

9%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%



17%

9%

31%20%

23%

«MY HOTEL»

5 starhotels

The 5 star hoteliersforecast that theoccupancy levels oftheir own hotel unitsare decreasing slightlyand the levels for themarket in generalsubstantially.

In terms of room rates73% expectsubstantially lowerrates for their ownhotels in comparisonwith same period lastyear, while for themarket in general 70%is expecting this.

6%3%

18%

32%

41%

11%

6%

31%26%

26%

41%

29%

24%

6%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




15%

11%

26%20%

28%

«MY HOTEL»

4 starhotels

The Q4 barometers ofthe 4 star hotels showworse occupancylevels and ARRs thanlast year. Perhaps thedrop in occupancy willnot be as big for themarket as a whole.

In terms of room ratesdrops of more than 2%are forecasted for Q42012 in comparison tothe same quarter lastyear.

11%

7%

28%24%

30%

15%

7%

35%22%

22%28%

24% 28%

4%

15%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




7%

11%

30%7%

44%

«MY HOTEL»

3 starhotels

Not many hoteliers areoptimistic in the 3 starsegment. In fact themajority (51%) expectsdrops of 2% and morein their occupancylevels and 74%forecasts drops inARR, of which 48% of5% and more.

Similar picture isshown by thebarometers of themarket as a whole withrespect to the 3 starsegment.

11%

15%

26%48%

4%7%

30%15%

44% 48%26%

19%

4%4%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




19%

19%19%

44%

«MY HOTEL»

2 starhotels

It is striking that for themarket in general noneof the hoteliers isexpecting an increasein occupancy nor inroom rates. For theirown hotels only fewwould expect someimprovements.

Therefore, the overallpicture is very negativefor the 2 star hotelsegment withsignificant dropsforecasted in bothoccupancy and ARRlevels.

13%

25%19%

44%

25%

38%

38% 38%

25%

38%

ΟCC ARR

ΟCC ARR

Decrease2 – 5%

Stability-2% - +2%

Increase>5%

Decrease>5%

Increase2 – 5%




4, Sekeri Street106 74 AthensPhone: +30 210 3605002Fax: +30 210 3606935

Web: www.gbrconsulting.grEmail: [email protected]

Tourism Barometer2012 Q4

ExpectationsGreek Hospitality Sector

gbr tourism barometer 2012 q4

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