gary palmer critical point consulting 1 - bcs bristol bcs bristol.pdf · 2015. 3. 9. · critical...
TRANSCRIPT
Gary Palmer Critical Point Consulting
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Late
What do we mean by ‘Project Failure’?
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Over Budget
Below Specification
Below Quality
Any one of:
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Late
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+ Over Budget
+ Below Specification
+ Below Quality
Why do we need to change? - 1
Because huge numbers of projects are:
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Why do we need to change? - 2
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Productivity & Throughput:
Often Low
Excessive Wastage
Slow Progress
Costly
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Why do we need to change? - 3
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Business Impact:
Product Expensive
Late to Market
Customer Dissatisfaction
Reputation
Project Failure & Slow Costly Projects Cripples Business
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Late
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Over Budget
Below Specification
Below Quality
What is the main driver for these failures?
Late projects fuel other failures:
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1. The traditional methods in use,
VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE these results.
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2. We have not had a viable alternative.
Until now…
What are the reasons for this?
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CCPM Statistics:
Project Delivery: 90%+ on time
Project Completion: 20% - 50% Faster
Productivity: 20% - 60% Increase
Critical Chain Project Management
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Without increasing resources
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By resolving problems in our working methods that:
1. Slow everything down
2. Cause our contingency to be ineffective
3. Cause inefficiencies and wastage
How Does CCPM Deliver These Improvements?
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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Transportable: Not industry / sector specific
Applicable in any project environment
Works with existing project structures
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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Techniques: Working practices, Behaviours
Tools: Processes, Software
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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Individually: Resolve a specific problem
Collaboratively: In unison to support the whole
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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Improvements: Efficient processes
Faster operation
Better work environment
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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Scheduling: Optimum, realistic schedule
Effective contingency protection
Execution: Efficient working practices
Excellent progress visibility, focus, control
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‘A transportable set of interlinked techniques and tools that work individually and collaboratively to significantly improve the processes and operation of scheduling and execution in any project, programme and portfolio environment’
What is CCPM?
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Projects: Single projects
Programme: Multi-project Any Sector
Portfolio: Enterprise-wide
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
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So, what are the problems in Traditional Proj. Mgmt.?
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
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Planned Completion
Characterised by many Deadline Dates and Milestones
Attempt to impose a Rigid construct on a Variable situation
But…actual dates will always change
… and will need constant and continued updating
09/09 1/10
13/09 23/09 04/10
10/09 1/09 15/09 23/09 1/10 15/10
10/09 15/09 21/09 07/10
23/09 22/09
30/09
13/10
22/09 03/10 09/10
09/09 14/09 22/09 13/10
14/09 20/09 06/10 13/10
Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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19/10
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Shouldn’t early and late finishes balance out?
Usually not.
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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Potential Early Finish
Parkinson’s Law – ‘Work expands to fill the time available’
Task
Deadline Date
Missed Time-Saving
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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3 d 7 days
Late Finish Adds Time
Early Finish Gain Lost
5 days
5 days 5 days
Planned
2 days added to schedule
No benefit to schedule
Parallel Converging Tasks tied to schedule dates
Losses Accumulate - Gains Don’t …And the schedule moves out
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
5 days 5 days 5 days
✓
✓
✓
3 d ✓
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Calculation: (Task Probability%^no. of tasks)
With a 90% task probability:
10 tasks = 35% probability
20 tasks = 12%
50 tasks = 0.05%
100 tasks = 0.000026%
Q? - How many tasks in your current project plan?
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Q- What is the probability of all a project’s tasks finishing on time?
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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Due Dates attempt a rigid structure on a variable situation
A ‘Train Timetable’ - where the trains never run on time
Parkinson’s Law often prevents early finishes
Losses increase time, not offset by gains
Schedule is guaranteed to require frequent changes
Project end-date slip is almost inevitable
Summary
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Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
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CCPM Schedule
Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
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Planned Completion
09/09 1/10
13/09 23/09 06/10
10/09 1/09 15/09 23/09 1/10 15/10
10/09 15/09 21/09 07/10
23/09 22/09
30/09
13/10
22/09 03/10 09/10
09/09 14/09 22/09 13/10
14/09 20/09 06/10 13/10
Traditional Project Management
Task Deadline Scheduling – Planning to Fail
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Projects have Uncertainties and Variablilities
Why attempt to work tofixed dates and deadlines….
…if we know they will change?
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09/09 1/10
13/09 23/09 04/10
10/09 1/09 15/09 23/09 1/10 15/10
10/09 15/09 21/09 07/10
23/09 22/09
30/09
13/10
22/09 03/10 09/10
09/09 14/09 22/09 13/10
14/09 20/09 06/10 13/10
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Estimated Task Dates used for initial planning
CCPM Schedule
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09/09 1/10
13/09 23/09 04/10
10/09 1/09 15/09 23/09 1/10 15/10
10/09 15/09 21/09 07/10
23/09 22/09
30/09
13/10
22/09 03/10 09/10
09/09 14/09 22/09 13/10
14/09 20/09 06/10 13/10
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CCPM Schedule
Minimum Internal Due Dates / Deadlines Schedule is used as a Dependency Chart
Each task completes asap and next task is started No need to constantly rework dates
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Potential Early Finish
Task
Deadline Date
CCPM Schedule
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So now, without deadlines to fuel Parkinson behaviours,
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Potential Early Finish
Task
Deadline Date
CCPM Schedule
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So now, without deadlines to fuel Parkinson behaviours,
Our potential Early Finish…
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Potential Early Finish
Task
CCPM Schedule
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So now, without deadlines to fuel Parkinson behaviours,
Our potential Early Finish…
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Actual Early Finish
Task
CCPM Schedule
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…can become a reality.
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across the whole project
CCPM Schedule
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Shorter Task Execution = Reduced Project Duration
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CCPM Schedule
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CCPM values speed over working to fixed dates
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Summary
Very few internal due dates
Work carried out on an ‘as soon as possible’ basis
A ‘Relay Race’ (not a ‘Train Schedule’)
Early finishes reduce timescales & cost
Flexible structure for a variable environment
Few fixed dates means few schedule updates
CCPM Schedule
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
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CCPM Schedule
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Familiarity with technology
Known Unknowns
Unknown Unknowns
Fear of Failure
Confidence in Spec.
Estimate chopping
Confidence in own ability
Complexity of the task Familiarity with task
Specification Stability
Multi-tasking
Task-Level Contingency
Easy Life Interruptions How Much
Contingency?
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Familiarity with technology
Known Unknowns
Unknown Unknowns
Fear of Failure
Confidence in Spec.
Estimate chopping
Confidence in own ability
Complexity of the task Familiarity with task
Specification Stability
Multi-tasking
Task-Level Contingency
Easy Life Interruptions
A Guess
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Task-Level Contingency
Effect 1- An Extended Schedule
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Task-Level Contingency creates an extended schedule
A project may contain > 50% embedded contingency
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Contingency Work
Deadline Date
Task-Level Contingency
Effect 2 – Student Syndrome
Scheduled Start
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Actual Start
Initially plenty of contingency
No incentive to start immediately Start deferred
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Work
Deadline Date
Task-Level Contingency
Effect 2 – Student Syndrome
Scheduled Start
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Actual Start
Contingency decreased
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Deadline Date
Task-Level Contingency
Effect 2 – Student Syndrome
Scheduled Start
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Other work
Work
Big Problem
Maybe another task is required / preferred
Now no contingency left and work is rushed Then a big problem surfaces…
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Deadline Date
Task-Level Contingency
Effect 2 – Student Syndrome
Scheduled Start
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Other work
Work
Big Problem
And now we have a task over-run…
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Delayed Completion
Planned Completion
If on a Critical Path task = project over-run
Task-Level Contingency
Effect 3 – Unprotected Project End-Date
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Task-Level Contingency
Effect 4- Unmanaged Time
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Traditional Embedded Contingency
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Where is the contingency?
How do you measure and manage it?
Maybe 50% of project time is not under control
Task-Level Contingency
Effect 4 – Unmanaged Time
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Project Manager’s View
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Inflated ‘Localised’ Estimates which generate
Student Syndrome which results in Parkinson’s Behaviours and
Long, Over-padded Schedules which encourages
Self-Protection leads to
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Unprotected From Delays and which have
Traditional Project Management
Task-level Contingency
Hidden, Unmanaged Contingency
Slow and Costly Projects which are still
Task-Level Contingency - Problem Cascade
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Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
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CCPM Schedule
Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
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Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
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CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
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High Levels of Embedded Contingency
CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Traditional Task-Level Contingency (Review)
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Remove task-level contingency
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Remove task-level contingency
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Remove task-level contingency
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Task Estimates have no in-built contingency
Estimates are based on ‘Aggressive-but-possible’ task times
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Shorter task durations & much reduced timeline
No space for Parkinson or Student Syndrome
But where is our contingency now?
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Remove task-level contingency
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Buffer protects the Project – not individual tasks Provides the project Commit Date
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Aggregate Contingency
Project Commit
Date
Project Buffer
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Critical Task over-runs are absorbed by the Buffer
No Schedule dates to change
The Project Commit Date is not affected
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Project Protection
Project Commit
Date
Project Buffer
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Project Protection
Project Commit
Date
Project Buffer
Buffer Status shows the impact on contingency
Now able to measure and manage our contingency
Buffer Status
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If a Critical Task finishes early…
The time saved is ‘added back’ into our contingency
Buffer Status always shows the latest position
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CCPM Project-Level Contingency
Project Protection
Project Commit
Date
Project Buffer
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Buffer Status
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Project Contingency which results in
Student Syndrome which results in
Parkinson’s Behaviours and
Streamlined Schedules with
Aggregated Uncertainties are built into a
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Visible, Manageable Contingency which prevents
Protected From Delays
Fast and Efficient Projects which are
CCPM Project-Level Contingency
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Project-Level Contingency Cascade
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
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CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
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Critical Path gives a completion date but ignores resources Based ONLY on task dependency & duration
Valid only in an environment without resource constraints
But what happens if we have resource contentions?
Traditional Project Management
Critical Path – A dangerous path to follow?
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Project Completion
Date
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Critical Path Problems
Resource Contentions
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
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Tasks F & C need the same resources, as do tasks G & I
Proj. Mgr. will bid for more resources but if not possible…
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Critical Path Problems
Post–CP Resource Levelling
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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Task C
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Critical Path Problems
Post–CP Resource Levelling
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Levelling resolves the issue… but increases timescales
And the vision of the Critical Path dominates
…and so tactical manoeuvres soon start...
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Task C
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Extra Time Req’d
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Critical Path Problems
1- Multi-Tasking
Task H
Task B Task D Task A Task J
Task E
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Quality may be reduced
Completion predictability becomes less certain
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Critical Path Problems
2 - Overtime
Task H
Task B Task D Task A Task J
Task E
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…Extra hours need to be worked
Scheduling & Control becomes difficult
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Critical Path Problems
Slippage
Task H
Task B Task D Task A Task J
Task E
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Multi-tasking is high risk
High potential for slippage
Diminishing returns due to staff morale / burnout?
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Critical Path Problems
Scope Cut
Task H
Task B Task D Task A Task J
Task E
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Last resort to hit target date is a Scope Cut
May cause work in other areas
Further degrades quality
‘Project Meltdown’
Sco
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Sco
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Cu
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Incorrect Dependency Path often with
Misleading Priorities which encourages a spiral of
Ignoring Resources Contentions leads to an
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Unstable Schedule
Traditional Project Management
Critical Path Problems
Fire-fighting tactics which leads to an
Unrealistic Completion Dates and
Out of Control Project with an
Critical Path Cascade
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
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CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Path
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Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
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CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
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CCPM Critical Chain
1. Build Dependency Network As Normal
Include Resource Requirements
- right at the start
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CCPM Critical Chain
2. CCPM Software - Resource Levelling
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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Resource-levelling the schedule…
Prevents over-allocation of resources
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CCPM Critical Chain
3. CCPM Software - Identify the Critical Chain
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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CCPM treats Resource Constraints as dependencies…
Priority sequence also goes to resource dependent tasks
A realistic critical sequence – The Critical Chain
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Critical Chain / Critical Path Comparison
Task E
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
Critical Chain
Critical Path
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Irrespective of what you draw in the CP schedule, the real
situation will be driven by the realities of resource constraints
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Critical Chain / Critical Path Comparison
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Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
Critical Chain
Critical Path
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If there are no resource clashes, the Critical Chain will be
the same as the Critical Path
Task H
Task F
Task I
Task B Task C Task D
Task G
Task A Task J
Task E
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Correct Dependency Path with
Realistic Priorities which provides a
Including Resources Contentions leads to a
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Stable Schedule
Realistic Project Duration and
Project Under Control with a
CCPM Critical Chain
Critical Chain Cascade
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
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CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
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3d
Task 1: 9 days Task 2: 9 days Task 3: 9 days
Time
3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d 3d
Without Multi-tasking:
With Multi-tasking:
27 Days
31 Days
• Speed – Everything is delayed • Quality – Likely to be less • Productivity - Reduced
Day 24 Day 9
• Nothing gets completed until day 24.
Task 1: + 15 days late (+165%)
Task 2: + 8 days late (+47%)
Task 3: + 2 days late (+22%)
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Traditional Project Management Multi-tasking:
The Illusion of being productive
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Multi-tasking; The SINGLE best way…
…to screw up TWO JOBS.
It slows everything down
It reduces quality
It wastes time and costs more
It is bad for morale
It complicates scheduling & control
It removes planning predictability
It causes delivery delays
Summary
Traditional Project Management Multi-tasking:
The Illusion of being productive
79
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Poor Measures & Control
80
CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
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One task only worked on at a time
No interruptions
Dedicated work until task complete
CCPM - Task Management
Single Tasking
81
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Task 1: 9 days Task 2: 9 days Task 3: 9 days
Time
Without Multi-tasking:
27 Days
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CCPM Single Tasking
The reality of being productive
Return to effective and efficient working
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‘Good’ Multi-Tasking Non-Project / background, no dependencies or deadlines.
Training/education. QA tasks. Flexi-time.
‘Bad’ Multi-Tasking ‘Double-booked’ on overlapping tasks.
Covering Additional / Support roles.
‘Ugly’ Multi-Tasking Personnel allocated simultaneous project tasks.
Endemic, cultural.
CCPM Single Tasking
Can Multi-tasking be removed?
83
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It improves quality
It reduces time & money spent
It simplifies scheduling & control
It enables planning predictability
It is good for morale
It speeds everything up
Summary
CCPM Single Tasking
84
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Elements of Failure
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
85
CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
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Use of ‘Percentage Complete’:
Report to expectation – no bad news to give
Can’t be challenged – only task owner knows
Often simply aligned with time used
Optimism that time can be pulled back
Infrequent reporting gives psychological cushion
Reality is often ignored - An easy place to hide
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
86
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Measurements - Percentage Complete, Time / money used / left
Position against base line, Milestones achieved…
What do they tell us? How much time/money used - Retrospective
What do they tell us about the future? Very little…
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
87
What is the Only Question PM’s get asked?
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‘Are you on target?’
What do we really need to know?
How exposed are we?
Have we got enough safety in hand?
Is there a trend?
Is it upward or downward?
Should we be taking any action?
Where should we be taking action?
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
88
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Often not a true / realistic picture
Real Status / safety contingency is hidden
False sense of schedule security
Leads to persisting ‘90% complete’ / late-emerging issues
Can cause major / incorrect re-scheduling
Doesn’t answer the Big Question
Summary
Traditional Project Management
Progress Measurement
89
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Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
Multi-tasking
90
CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
Good Measures Visible Control
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CCPM Progress Reporting:
Often
When any significant change occurs
91
CCPM Progress Measurement
Is task complete?
If not, how much task-time left remaining?
Frequency:
Questions:
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CCPM Progress Measurement
‘Critical Chain’ Completed
✓
✓
✓
Critical Tasks completed reported into CCPM software
92
A
B C D
E F
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CCPM Progress Measurement
Contingency Buffer Usage
93
+3
+3
A
B C D
E F
✓
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CCPM Progress Measurement
Contingency Buffer Usage
Task C has no effect on buffer
94
Buffer Used
+3
+3
+3 +3
Buffer Remaining
A
B C D
E F
✓
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CCPM Progress Measurement
Seeing into the Future
Immediate report from task D that an extra 5 days will be required
This report immediately shows in Buffer Usage
Provides ‘view ahead’ notification of future position
95
Buffer Used
+3
+3
+5
+3 +3
Buffer Remaining
D C B
A E F
+5
Early Report
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Amount of critical work completed: Critical Chain
Put these two together…
CCPM Progress Measurement
96
Now we have two key measurements:
How much contingency remaining: Project Buffer
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Singular
Objective
Predictive
Easily interpreted
Auto constructed
Up-to-date
Immediate
CCPM Progress Measurement
The Fever Chart
97
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Frequent Reporting:
Progress is always up-to-date
Project position is always up-to-date
Summary - 1
CCPM Progress Measurement
98
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‘Remaining Duration’ Reporting:
More accurate / realistic picture
Focusses the task worker
Real Status / safety contingency is visible
Persisting ‘90% complete’ syndrome banished
Prevents late-emerging issues
Summary - 2
CCPM Progress Measurement
99
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Fever Chart:
Combined view of progress and contingency
Trends provide early warning
Objective, singular, visual, always available
Prevents unnecessary schedule changes
Answers the Big Question!
Summary - 3
CCPM Progress Measurement
100
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Critical Chain Project Management
The Five Elements of Success
Multi-tasking
101
CCPM Schedule
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
Good Measures Visible Control
So, have we fixed all of the problems?
Yes – but not just these; CCPM fixes a bigger problem and the
reason that past improvements have not succeeded
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Vicious Circles C
riti
cal P
oin
t C
on
sult
ing
102
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Traditional Project Management
The Five Problems
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
103 What problem is also caused by these five issues?
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Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
104 Each individual issue causes schedule changes
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
Traditional Project Management
Schedule Instability
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Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
105
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
And Schedule changes cause other problems and…
Traditional Project Management
Problem Self-Perpetuation
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Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
106 Each individual problem area perpetuates others
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
Traditional Project Management
Problem Self-Perpetuation
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Traditional Project Management
Problem Self-Perpetuation
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
107 Locked-in, self-perpetuating, systemic failure
Task-Level Contingency
Poor Measures & Control
Multi-tasking
Critical Path
Deadline Schedule
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CCPM Solutions
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
108
Project-Level Contingency
CCPM Schedule
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
Rem. Duration Visible Control
Fixing the internal problems removes vicious circles:
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CCPM Schedule Stability
109 And the causes of schedule changes and their impact
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Schedule Changes
Project-Level Contingency
CCPM Schedule
Critical Chain
Rem. Duration Visible Control
Single-tasking
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Project-Level Contingency
Rem. Duration Visible Control
Single-tasking
Critical Chain
CCPM Schedule
CCPM Schedule Stability
110
CCPM removes the causes of problem perpetuation,
schedule changes and systemic failure
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Seven Problems of Traditional PM…
…and the Seven Solutions of CCPM
Traditional Problems:
Deadline Scheduling
Task-Level Contingency
Critical Path
Multi-tasking
Poor Measures & Control
Schedule Volatility
Problem Perpetuation
111
CCPM Solutions:
Flexible Scheduling
Project-Level Contingency
Critical Chain
Single-tasking
Good Measures & Control
Schedule Stability
Solution Constancy
Poor Work Environment
= ‘Progressive Excellence’
Good Work Environment
= ‘Terminal Mediocrity’
www.criticalpoint.co.uk
Programme
& Portfolio
Myth
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Achieving Terminal
Mediocrity on a
Large Scale 112
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The Programme & Portfolio Myth
1. That the more projects you start, the more you will get done
113
CCPM in Programme and Portfolio
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3mths
Project 1: 9mths Project 2: 9mths Project3: 9mths
3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths
Project Fragmentation:
27 mths
30 mths
mth 23
mth 9
If projects have to time-slice,
Fragmentation will delay all projects
Driven by edict for all projects to be shown as started 114
Overloaded Programme
1. Project Time-Slicing
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3mths
Project 1: 9 mths Project 2: 9mths Project3: 9mths
3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths 3mths
27 mths
30 mths
9 mths
21 mths
Longer elapsed time gives more exposure time for changes
Changes generate more work and extend projects further
Meanwhile unfinished work gets ‘rusty’ 115
Overloaded Programme
Project Time-Slicing
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116
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Project 1
Project 3
Project 2
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117
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Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
Project 2
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118
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Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
Project 2
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119
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Project 2
Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
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120
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Project 2
Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
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121
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Project 2
Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
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122
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Project 2
Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
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123
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Project 2
Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
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124
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Project 2
Project 1
Project 3
Resource A
Resource A
Resource A
Multiple impacts of ‘close-coupled’ resource between projects
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Frequently great pressure to start more projects -
Often ignoring the realities of resource capacity 125
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Overloaded Programme
Simultaneous Projects
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
126
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working Level
Insufficient resource causes Cross-Project Reallocations
Exterior View
Overloaded Programme
Simultaneous Projects
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
127
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working Level
Insufficient resource causes Cross-Project Reallocations
All projects suffer and get delayed
Exterior View
Overloaded Programme
Simultaneous Projects
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
128
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working Level
Insufficient resource causes Cross-Project Reallocations
All projects suffer and get delayed
‘Who shouts loudest’ gets the resources
Exterior View
Overloaded Programme
Simultaneous Projects
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Overloaded Programme
129
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working Level
Gaps left in projects fuel Multi-tasking
Exterior View
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Overloaded Programme
130
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working Level Exterior View
. . . .?
. . . .?
. .?
. .?
. .?
Major impact is that completion becomes unpredictable
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An Overloaded system causes:
Fighting over Insufficient Resources
Volatile / Unworkable Schedules
Fuels Multi-tasking
Causes Delays
Loss of Completion Predictability
Summary
Traditional Project Management
Overloaded Programme
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131
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The Programme & Portfolio Myth
So what can we do to improve this?
1. That the more projects you start, the more you will get done
132
… You won’t
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Overloaded Programme
133
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Reality at Working Level Exterior View
. . . .?
. . . .?
. .?
. .?
. . .?
How did we get here?
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Problem 1: Belief that ‘More Work In = More Work Out’. .
Creates overload of work in progress (WIP).
Causes waiting time (delays) and multi-tasking.
All work runs slower.
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment: Maximising Throughput
134
Solution 1:
Recognise that MWI / MWO doesn’t work.
Stop feeding more than system can manage.
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Problem 2: Unclear/Competing/Varying Priorities .
Causes changes in scheduling.
Causes waiting time (delays) and multi-tasking.
All work runs slower.
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment: Maximising Throughput
135
Solution 2:
Priorities are mandatory and business-driven.
‘It’s all Top Priority!’ is banned.
All decisions start with priorities.
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Problem 3: Lack of regime to prevent overloading. .
No loading rules = No control = Overloading.
Causes waiting time (delays) and multi-tasking.
All work runs slower.
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment: Maximising Throughput
136
Solution 3:
Start new projects only when capacity allows
‘Stagger’ new projects starts to avoid major issues.
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137
Project E
Project D
Project C
Project A
Project B
Project F
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment: Prioritise!
Priority 1 Priority 6
Priority 5
Priority 4
Priority 3
Priority 2
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Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
CCPM in the Multi-Project Environment:
Priority 1
Priority 6
Priority 5
Priority 4
Priority 3
Priority 2
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Project 6
Project 4
Project 5
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139
Project 1
Project 3
CCPM in the Multi-Project Environment:
? =
Project 2
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140
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
CCPM in the Multi-Project Environment:
? =
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141
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
?
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142
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
?
KR
KR
KR
KR
KR
KR
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KR
KR
KR
KR
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144
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
KR
KR
KR
KR
KR
KR
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145
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment:
What’s the new picture look like?
KR
KR
KR
KR
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• Prioritise !
• ‘Stagger’ project starts to avoid major contentions
• Start new projects only when capacity allows
CCPM in Multi-Project Environment: Maximising Throughput
146
Solution Summary:
www.criticalpoint.co.uk
It’s what you finish…
…not what you start.
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147
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148
Proj A
Proj B
Proj C
Proj E
Proj F
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f B
uff
er
Use
d
Percentage of Critical Chain Completed
Multi-project Fever Chart
Programme Fever Chart focusses on projects that need attention
CCPM Programme Management
The Programme Fever Chart
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149
MULTI-PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Projects managed by Priorities & Buffer Usage
MULTI-PROJECT WIP / PIPELINING
Reduced WIP & Staggered Projects
REALISTIC SCHEDULE
Critical Chain includes Resource Dependencies
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EFFICIENT WORKING PRACTICES
ABP Estimates, Relay Race, Remaining Duration
VISIBLE, FOCUSSED PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project Buffer / Fever Chart: Trends, Focus
www.criticalpoint.co.uk
The Evidence
for CCPM
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150
www.criticalpoint.co.uk
High Tech 3M Advasense Technologies Agilent Technologie AMCC AMD Avaya Avitronics Barco Bell Canada BT Radianz Computer Sciences Corp Cray, Inc. ECI Telecom Ltd. Eclozion Informatique Ericsson Estonian Telephone Fairchild Semiconductor Graftech Hewlett Packard Hitachi Computer Products Honeywell IBM Ismeca Europe Semiconductor ITT Canon L-3 Communication Systems LSI Logic Lucent Technologies Marvell
High Tech / Medtronic, Inc. Microsoft Motorola Numonyx Philips Semiconductors Pioneer Qualcomm RSA Security SanDisk Sapient Seagate Technology LLC Sony Ericsson Spirent Communications Sprint Sun Microsystems Symbian Tadiran Spectralink Tektronix TT Technologies Tundra Semiconductor Workscape Xerox Corporation Business Education Ashridge Management College Project Management Institute London Business School + Over 160 Universities
Life Sciences Abbott Labs Adirondack Surgery AHIS-St. Vincent Health AMGEN Andover Healthcare Inc. Arterain Medical Baxter Boston Scientific Central Dupage Health Bovis Pharmaceuticals Converge Medical Inc. Cytori Therapeutics, Inc. Edwards Lifescience Ethicon Gambro Healthcare GlaxoSmithKline Johnson & Johnson Medtronic Merck Medco Managed Care Pfizer Pharmacia Roche Diagnostics Spectranetics Tenet Health Care Tyco Healthcare United Behavioral Health Vascore Medical Ventana
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Companies Using CCPM - 1
151
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Aerospace and Defense Aerojet Corporation Air Force Institute of Tech. BAE Systems The Boeing Company General Dynamics Halliburton ITT Space Systems Lockheed NASA Northrop Grumman Portsmouth Naval Shipyard Puget Sound Naval Shipyard Raytheon SAAB Avionics US Air Force
Consumer Products Coca-Cola Colgate Palmolive Del Monte Foods Fonterra Gillette Heineken IKEA Kraft Foods McKee Foods Nike Philip Morris
Industrial ABB Accoat Advanced Energy Technology Alcan Alfa Lava American Rubber Products Applied Plasmonics AREVA Atomic Energy of Canada . Balfour Beatty Bimba Manufacturing Bosal Bosch Rexroth Ltda. Brice Manufacturing BVR Technologies Company C.F. Roark Welding. Callaway Golf Celite Corporation s Conoco Corning Cable Systems Cueros Industrializados DaimlerChrysler UK Danfoss Delta Faucet Company Detroit Diesel Reman-West DuPont Eastman Kodak Company
Industrial/ ExxonMobil Chemical Fisher Controls Fluid Brasil Sistemas Fluke Corporation Fuel Cell Energy GE Industrial Systems Hach Honda ITT Corporation Kawasaki Heavy Industries, M&M Precision Systems Marshall Industries Merichem Chemicals Milwaukee Forge Rail care Raychem Rolls Royce Siemens Sylvania Unilever Tata UPC Technology Volvo Source:TOC International, Gatlinburg, TN.
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Companies Using CCPM - 2
152
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After having used it in 2,523 public works projects in 2007 and over 4,000 projects in 2008, the Japanese government now requires that CCPM be used on all public works projects (approximately 20,000 projects per year).”
Japanese Government:
153 * Source: ProChain Inc. Copyright © 2013 by ProChain Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
Client Quotes:*
• ‘Reduced first project more than 10 months (approx. 50%)’ • ‘Between 25 - 50 % reduction on first 10 projects’ • ‘On-time completion of projects increased from 22% to well above 90%’ • ‘On-time completion of projects now at 100%’ • ‘Average project length reduced by more than 50%’ • ‘On-time delivery of projects went from 40% to nearly 100%’ • ‘More than doubled project throughput’ • ‘Return on investment conservatively 500:1’
Video Testimonials:
See Realization Inc. website http://www.realization.com/results/mro-turnaround
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Professional Recognition
APM Body of Knowledge. "An alternative to creating networks based on activity dependencies is to use a technique called critical chain. This method considers the availability of resources and the interdependencies between resources.“ - APM Body of Knowledge 6th edition (2012) p 155
Association for Project Management
PMI Body of Knowledge “Critical chain is a schedule network analysis technique that modifies the project schedule to account for limited resources. Initially, the project schedule network diagram is built using duration estimates with required dependencies and defined constraints as inputs. The critical path is then calculated. After the critical path is identified, resource availability is entered and the resource-limited schedule result is determined. The resulting schedule often has an altered critical path.” PMI BoK 4th edition. Ch 6 Time Management p.155
Project Management Institute
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Professional Recognition
Conference Presentation Critical Chain Project Management using Microsoft Project and Prochain: Implementing Project Portfolio Management.
The Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization (TOCICO) is a global not-for-profit certification organization for TOC practitioners, consultants and academics to develop and administer certification standards, and facilitate the exchange of latest developments. TOCICO has run an international conference for the past 11 years.
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The Theory of Constraints & CCPM - 30yrs in the making:
The work and books of Eli Goldratt
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Manufacturing, Accounting, Production The Goal, The Race, The Haystack Syndrome
The Thinking Process The Jonah Program, The Choice
Distribution, Marketing, Management It’s Not Luck
Project Management Critical Chain
TOC & Technology Necessary But Not Sufficient
TOC & Business Strategy Viable Vision
Retail Isn’t It Obvious?
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Development:
Result of many years of continuous development
Based on Theory of Constraints (TOC) 1980’s – 1990’s
Needed software to be truly viable
Software too slow to develop
Software now mature & robust (see ProChain.com)
Key Publications by Eliyahu Goldratt:
1984 'The Goal' – TOC in manufacturing
1997 ‘Critical Chain’ - Applying TOC to project management
CCPM Potted History
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‘Critical Chain Project Management presents us with an opportunity to plan projects well for maybe the very first time. We should make sure that we break with our old traditions of how we have done things in the past, and re-plan our projects from scratch.
But planning is only half the story. The real power of CCPM comes from the control afforded during the execution or deployment of the job. Buffer status and buffer management allows us unprecedented feedback on the progress of the project and where to focus attention and where not.
And maybe this is the most important factor in the whole approach.
We have a totally new and systemic way to manage projects. We should make the very most of this opportunity.’ Dr. Kelvin Youngman
Last Word
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Over 15 years experience of CCPM Consultancy,
Implementation and Training
in
Multiple companies / Multiple industries
www.criticalpoint.co.uk
UK: 01892 506881 | Intl: +44 1892 506881
Critical Point Consulting
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Questions?