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2017

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65.9(2 ) 34

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К И. ., А.К., С . ., С А. ., С . ., С .С., Щ а .А.

34 На чны р ы: - / . . . . . — .: , 2017. — 568 . ISBN 978-5-317-02937-1

ISSN 2076-3182

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65.9(2 )

This volume of scientific papers IEF RAS includes articles on a wide range of issues of theory and practice analysis and forecasting of national and regional economies and their sectors.

TСО КrtТМХОs rКТsО urРОnt probХОms oП RussТК’s soМТo-economic development: re-storing of economic growth, increase in productivity, transition to a new technologi-МКХ ХОЯОХ oП proНuМtТon, ТmproЯТnР tСО quКХТtв oП RF МТtТгОns’ ХТПО.

The book is addressed to researchers, economists, teachers, graduate students, stu-dents and readers interested in current and future socio-ОМonomТМ RussТК’s problems.

ISBN 978-5-317-02937-1

ISSN 2076-3182

© , 2017

© . ., , 2017

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548

Scientific Articles – Institute of Economic Forecasting

Russian Academy of Sciences

И. .

-

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(А К).

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Aizinova I.M. Mortgage Lending as an Instrument of Housing Policy

The article discusses the place and value of dwelling in the system of complex in-terrelations of the general concept of life quality, and the state role in improvement of housing conditions of the population. The functioning of the mortgage lending system in Russia is analyzed in the light of the tasks set by the state strategy of its de-velopment and activities of the Agency of Mortgage Housing Lending (AMHL) created for implementation of this strat-egy. The target programs of the Agency for Mortgage Housing Lending, sources of their financing and the achieved results are considered. The special role of the preferential mortgage for separate catego-ries of population in the solution of tasks for their social support and development of the budget sphere is researched.

Keywords: housing conditions, priority state programs, mortgage loan, social mortgage

. ., . ., . .

- -

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. -

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, - -

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.

: , - , , -

Akimova D.A., Moiseev A.K., Panfilov V.S. The Correlation of Enterprises’ Prof-itability with Loan and Deposit In-terest Rates as the Factor of Domestic Credit

This paper analyzes the link between profitability margins of Russian en-terprises and their inclination towards drawing loans for business develop-ment. The model compares credit rate, deposit rate and profitability structure. The model forecasts that reduction of the credit rate below profitability in-clines enterprises to draw more loans and provides the top estimate of loans amount increase for each given loan rate. Analysis is structured by indus-tries and utilizes reported data from enterprises.

Keywords: Profitability, interest rate, indus-trial structure, loan cost, monetary policy

549

. ., . ., - . ., . ., . .

-

-

-, -

-,

- .

- -

. - -

- , - -

, . : -

, , -

, -,

Borisov V.N., Pochukaev O.V., Balagu-rova E.A., Orlova T.G., Pochukaev K.G. Evaluation of the Engineering Prod-ucts Competitiveness as a Total Dy-namics Effect of the Investments’ In-novative Saturation

Based on engineering research, inno-vation and investment factors deter-mined the main characteristics that ensure the process of engineering de-velopment and formation of con-nected effects. The influence of in-vestment activities on the competi-tiveness of products is analyzed. The instruments for assessing the effects of innovation-intensive investments on the competitiveness of sectors, in-dustries and enterprises are developed

Keywords: innovation-intensive invest-ment, price competitiveness, techno-logical competitiveness, import substi-tution, export

. ., . . -

-

: , - , -

- -

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- -

. -

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Borisov V.N., Pochukaev O.V. Modern Problems for Increase the Efficiency of Mechanical Engineering Development

The study showed the following: chal-lenges faced by the domestic engi-neering as for the increase of its con-tribution to structural-investment pol-icy are connected with the lack of saturation innovative investment; backwardness of technologies, nar-rowness of import substitution model and insufficient support of export-based model.

Keywords: export model, developing import substitution, innovation-intensive investment, technological competitiveness

И. ., . . -

- -

« »

- - -

Budanov I.A., Terentiev N.E. Issues and Directions of Russia’s Metallurgy Sector Technological Modernization within Green Growth Context

The paper contemplates issues and di-rections of metallurgy sector within green growth context. Methodological issues of economic effect assessment

550

; -

- ;

-

« » . : -

, « » , - , -

,

of environmental innovation on dif-ferent levels of economy are consid-ered. Specificities of metallurgy sector green modernization processes in the world and in Russia are analyzed. Di-rections of metallurgy sector mod-ernization within green growth con-text are developed.

Keywords: technological modernization, green growth, metallurgy, energy effiency, resource efficiency, innovation

. ., . .

-

Ф

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. -

- - - ( ). К -

К

. -

К - -

.

2014-

2019 . : -

, -К , - ,

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Dementev V.V., Slobodyanik S.N. Government Programs as a Tool for the Implementation of the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Devel-opment of the Russian Federation

The article describes main stages of moving towards program-target plan-ning for policy implementation in the field of science and technologies. Government programs provide a key tool for implementation of the Strat-egy of scientific and technological de-velopment of the Russian Federation. Main differences in the Russian prac-tice of the R&D financing from the federal budget are briefly formulated. Experimental calculations of the vol-umes of R&D financing from the fed-eral budget at the level of government programs are conducted by the au-thors. Shifts in the priorities of the government financing of the science and technology sphere in 2014-2019 are investigated.

Keywords: government program, gov-ernment spending to R&D, program-target planning, budget financing of ba-sic and applied research

И. ., . ., . ., И. .

Ф

-

- -

.

- ..

- -

Dolgova I.N., Edinak E.A., Korovkin A.G., Korolev I.B. Labour Demand and Supply Adjust-ment Taking into Account Educa-tional Characteristics of Labor Force in the RF Regions

The problems of national and regional labor markets structural imbalances are analyzed. The estimates of struc-tural imbalances taking into account the educational structure of vacant jobs and labor force are given. The process of labour demand and its sup-ply adjustment on the regional labor markets taking into account educa-

551

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: , , - ,

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tional characteristics of labor force is studied.

Keywords: regional labor market, struc-tural unemployment, labour supply, la-bour demand, employment, level of education

И .И. - -

: - А -

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Ivanova E.I. Social and Demographic Structure of Contemporary Rural Areas: Specifics and Factors

The author analyses the specifics of social and demographic structure of contemporary rural areas, and pays at-tention to contradictory character of its elements. Educational, age, family structures appear to be the result of societal and economic factors, as well as of the increase in migration out-flows from rural settlements. The arti-cle shows that young generations are giving priorities to family values and the traditional attitudes to family int-ergenerational support survive.

Keywords: social and demographic structure, rural areas, migration, generation, intergenerational support

. ., . ., ё . ., . .

-

-

- -

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. - -

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Kazakova K.A., Knyazev A.G., Lepekhin O.A., Shemyakin A.E. Macroeconomic Credit Risk Model-ling Based on Copula Functions

The paper discusses the practical use of multidimensional copula functions for constructing credit risk satellite model while stress testing of banking sector at the macro level is done. It demonstrates a step-by-step process of building a satellite model based on a hierarchical Archimedean copula us-ing a Bayesian approach in the form of the Metropolis algorithm with a random walk. It calculates expected and extreme losses for the imple-mented stress scenario.

Keywords: stress testing, credit risk sat-ellite model, copula, Bayesian approach

. ., . ., . .

Ф -

Korovkin A.G., Edinak E.A., Shyrpikov V.A. Analysis of RF Population Migra-tion Mobility and Settlement

The level and dynamics of Russian popu-lation settlement in the regions within the framework of the study of internal migra-

552

. -

.

- -

- . -

- . : -

, , , -, , -

tion population mobility are analyzed. The number and structure of repeated popula-tion displacements by their number are studied. The way of modernization the ex-isting forecasting and analytical tools in order to take into account changing prob-ability of population consolidation in the territory is shown. Estimates of modeling of the population distribution among re-gions with different coefficient of consoli-dation dynamics are given.

Keywords: interregional migration, struc-ture, RF population, mobility, coefficients of population stability, survival, the balance of territorial population mobility

.Ю., . ., . ., . .

К - Ф

-

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Ksenofontov M.Yu., Polzikov D.A., Nebreev N.V., Sitnikov P.V. Food Security in Russia: Current State and Assessment Problems

The article deals with the methodical problems of food security assessment. The study shows opportunities to ad-dress key issues of the common analysis based on criteria of the Rus-sian Federation Food Security Doc-trine. The alternative approach was used to evaluate the current level of food availability in Russia.

Keywords: food security, food self-sufficiency, per capita consumption, calorie intake level, purchasing power

. . -

- 2030

. -

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.

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Mikheeva N.N. Estimation of Spatial Development Scenarios of the Russian Economy till 2030

Problems of construction and estima-tion of spatial development scenarios in long-term forecasts are considered. Three scenarios of spatial develop-ment are submitted: conservative, the scenario of competitive growth, the scenario of diversified growth based on assumptions of the theory of en-dogenous growth. Qualitative and quantitative estimations of the spatial development parameters characteriz-ing the specified scenarios are given.

Keywords: spatial development, long-term forecast, scenarios, growth factors, federal districts, quantitative estimates

553

. .

: - -

,

, -

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-, , -

.

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,

Mkrtchan N.V. Long-term International Migration in Russia: Educational Aspect

The article, based on the data of the sufficiently long period of time, ana-lyzes the level of education of long-term international migrants in Russia. Comparisons are made with the level of education of the country's popula-tion. The composition of international migrants by the level of education dif-fers both from age and from the popu-lation exchange caused by migration. In general, the level of education of long-term migrants is quite close to the population of Russia, but Russia lost more educated migrants than it acquired. In recent years situation has not changed. The level of migrant's education depends on the change in the methodology for accounting mi-gration, which makes difficult to compare over a long period.

Keywords: level of education of the popu-lation, International Migration, Censuses, Age groups

. ., . ., . .

- -

, -

, -

. 51 -

- ,

41 1970-2015 . -

, -

. c - .

: , , -

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Panfilov V.S., Moiseev A.K., Cherkovets M.V. Analysis of Domestic Credit Dynam-ics During the Interest Rates Reduc-tion Periods in Different Countries

The article analyses the interest rates re-duction policy after the interest rates crises and the dynamics of the key macrofinance indicators during such periods in different countries. In total, 51 interest rate crisis and the following interest rate reduction periods are determined in 41 countries in 1970-2015. The elasticity of domestic credit to the change in interest rate is cal-culated, and the dynamics of investment and inflations is investigated. For the countries with several interest rate reduc-tion periods the interest rate changing pat-terns in different periods are studied.

Keywords: reduction of interest rates, lending interest rate, domestic credit, investment, elasticity of credit to the in-terest rate, expanded reproduction

. .

-

-

Pochukaev K.G. Investment Factor and Price Com-petitiveness of Agricultural and Railway Machinery

The analysis of agricultural machinery and freight rail car building products

554

. -

-

. - , -

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: - , -, , -

, - , -

markets is made. The influence of in-vestment factor on the production de-velopment and competitiveness of ag-ricultural machinery and freight rail cars is estimated. Factors affecting pricing and impeding the growth of price competitiveness are considered.

Keywords: efficiency of investment ac-tivity, competitiveness, innovative products, production efficiency, agri-cultural machinery, freight rail car building

. ., .Ю., - . ., Ю. .

( )

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-

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2035 ., -

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,

Saenko V.V., Kolpakov A.Yu., Semika-shev V.V., Sinyak Yu.V. Experience in Analyzing and Fore-casting the Energy Sector of the Re-gion (on the Example of Tula Region)

A methodology for analyzing and forecasting the energy sector of the Tula region, which is primarily an en-ergy-consuming economic complex, is proposed. The specifics of the main energy-consuming sectors of the re-gional economy is described. The is-sues of formation of the energy bal-ance for Tula region and statistical support of this process are considered. The regional energy policy until 2035, which defines the goals, tasks, priori-ties and guidelines for the long-term development of the region's energy complex, as well as the mechanisms of the regional state energy policy for its implementation was developed.

Keywords: energy complex, energy balance, energy policy, Tula region, en-ergy consumption

. ., .Ю., . . -

ЭК 2035

- ЭК –

, , -

. - -

Semikashev V.V., Kolpakov A.Yu., Saenko V.V. Analysis and Forecast of Develop-ment of Energy Branches in Tula Re-gion to 2035

The article provides a detailed analy-sis of the energy and fuel branches of the Tula region - electric power, heat supply, oil products and fuel supply. The methods and approaches used to forecast the demand for energy re-

555

. ( , -

), - -

, - - - ( -

), - .

: ЭК, -, , -

, , -, , -

sources are shown and justified. As a result, we have forecasted the de-mand for final energy (electricity, heat and oil products), the volume and structure of heat and electricity production, and then the region's need for primary fuel and energy re-sources (coal and natural gas), which are imported to the region.

Keywords: energy and fuel branches, electricity, heat energy, oil products, electric power, heat supply, Tula re-gion, energy consumption

Ю. . -

-

( )

- -

. -

. -

: 1) -

2005-2015 . - -

- ; 2)

- -

a ( -

, , -, -

) 2015-2035 . - , -

. : ,

, , , -, , -

, , -

,

Sinyak Yu.V. Forecasting Estimates of Demand for Motor Fuels for Road Transportation and Oil Products for other Consumers of Final Energy Consumption (on the Ex-ample of Tula Region)

A heuristic model has been developed to calculate the demand for motor fu-els for road transportation and oil products for other consumers of final energy consumption in an economic region. The calculations were carried out on the basis of statistical reports and forecasting materials for the Tula region. A two-stage calculation scheme is proposed: 1) adjustment of the model based on actual data for the reporting period 2005-2015 and the elaboration of proper statistical func-tions for the main drivers of the vehi-cles work in the prospective period; 2) the determination of the calculated values of the demand for motor fuels for certain segments of the road trans-port (motor vehicles owned by the public; cargo and passenger vehicles of common use; and general-purpose buses) in the period 2015-2035 by us-ing built statistical functions and ex-pert estimates based on publication data and common sense.

Keywords: forecasting, mathematical model, fuel demand, motor fuels, oil products, final energy consumption, cars owned by the population, general cargo and light vehicles, general buses

556

. . -

А -

, .

- .

- -

- . : , , -, ,

Solovyev A.M. The Alcohol Goods Illegal Market Analysis in Russia

The alcohol goods sale, production, ethyl alcohol price are analyzed. The alcohol goods illegal sale esti-mate is made. The decisions of the illegal alcohol production and turn-over goods share decrease are given on the analysis.

Keywords: alcohol, sale, production, price, illegal sale

. ., . ., Ю. ., . .

-

-

-

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-, -

. -

, -

,

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), ,

( ) – . -

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. :

; -; « - »; -

.

Suvorov N.V., Trechshina S.V., Beletskii Yu.V., Balashova E.E. Balance and factor models as a tool for analysis and forecasting structure of the economy

The subject of this work is the presenta-tion of methods and results of the devel-opment of special tools for forecasting and analytical studies designed to ensure the formation of quantitative indicators that characterize the material proportions of the economy. Methodical and instru-mental problems associated with the for-malization of quantitative interrelation-ships between macroeconomic informa-tion presented by data on individual func-tional elements of final demand (used GDP), on the one hand, and indicators of output volumes of individual industries (types of economic activity), on the other hand, are considered. The questions con-nected with construction of retrospective and forecast indicators of interbranch rela-tions are analyzed.

Keywords: balance and factor models, analysis and forecast of the structure of the economy, Input-output method, interbranch relations.

. . -

1992-2016 . -

- .

Sutyagin V.S. Reproduction of the Russian Econo-my in 1992-2016

The article presents a brief description of the tools and consequences of do-mestic economy reproductive mecha-nism functioning before radical eco-nomic reforms and their impact on the subsequent development in the new conditions. It is shown that the

557

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"shrinking" reproduction in 1992-1999 was stable-binim result of the mismatch of economic policy and real start conditions of reformed economy. Some recovery and the growth of economic indicators in 2000-2007 was not a consequence of the transi-tion to a stage of expanded reproduc-tion as a result of adequate economic policies. It was the restoration in the scale of simple reproduction only due to the increase in the level of utiliza-tion of existing capacity, import sub-stitution and favourable market condi-tions. The absence of preconditions of expanded reproduction in the condi-tions of economic policy is evidenced by the crisis of 2008-2009 and the subsequent lack of economic growth. Reasons that impede the transition to expanded reproduction are discussed.

Keywords: reproduction – simple, ex-panded, shrinking, the mechanism of monetary regulation, macro-financial stabilization, investment in fixed assets, financial investments, fixed assets

. . -

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Terebova S.V. Structure and evaluation of innovation potential of industrial enterprises

The most important factor that increases competitiveness of an enterprise is its in-novation potential. High-quality man-agement decisions on developing the lat-ter and improving efficiency of its use should be based on assessment of innova-tion potential and identification of con-cealed reserves for economic growth of an enterprise. When solving this problem the author suggests its own approach to un-derstanding the structure of an enterprise's innovation potential and develops a re-spective assessment methodology. The paper presents the results of testing the methodology on the data of manufactur-ing enterprises.

Key words: industrial enterprise, innovation, innovation potential, scientific and technical potential, assessment methodology.

558

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Tishina L.I. Information and Methodological Problems of Import Consumption Research

The author describes the information and methodological problems associated with the import consumption research in Rus-sia. Way to expander statistical database on import of goods (use of transition keys « FEACN -RNCP») is given. Calculation procedure for price and volume indices of good imports taking into account the de-veloped transition key is described. The paper also presents the analysis of import consumption.

Keywords: import, volume index, price index, goods, database, statistics

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1997-2012 . - -

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: , , , , , ,

Topilin A.V., Vorobyeva O.D. Migration Processes and Unemploy-ment in the Regional Labor Markets of Russia

The scale and interrelationship of various types of migration and unemployment across the regions of Russia, in the dy-namics over a long period of 1997-2012, are considered. Groups of regions are proposed for unemployment and migra-tion intensity. It is proved that the intensi-fication of differentiation of regions by the level of unemployment is due to the increase in the number of RF subjects covered by the outflow of population. The distribution of regions in four seg-ments with different degrees of mutual in-fluence of migration and unemployment on the level of economic development is justified.

Keywords: migration, employment, un-employment, labor market, region, for-eign labor, GDP per capita

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Treshchina S.V. Costs of Innovation in the Domestic Chemi-cal Complex: Analysis and Approaches to Determine their Effectiveness

The article deals with the state and the problem of determining the effective-ness of innovation in the chemical in-dustry. Approaches and methods for analyzing the efficiency of production and investment in innovation. Ana-lyzed the official statistical indicators of innovation activities to the appro-priateness of their use in the economic

559

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impact of research investments (costs) in technological innovation.

Keywords: scientific and technical progress, innovation, investment in innovation, expenses for innovations, innovation efficiency

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2000- 2010- . : , -

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Ustinov V.S. Analysis of the Relationship Between Investment and Pricing Policies in the Industries of Constructional Ma-terials Complex

Analysis of the results of investment development in the industries of constructional materials complex in 2005-2015-s is conducted. Special attention is paid to the formation and use of investment resources of enterprises. On metallurgy and ce-ment production example, problems of coordination of investment and pricing policies of enterprises in the 2000s and 2010s are considered.

Keywords: investments, investment re-source, investment policy, pricing pol-icy, constructional materials complex, macroeconomic factors, innovations

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Olav Hauge The History of Petroleum Activities on the Norwegian Continental Shelf-L gis-tics: Role and Place in its Development

During the 10-12 years period Nor-way has created and developed the oil industry. Later Norway became one of the leading oil supplier to the world market. The author analyzes measures taken by the Norwegian government to implement world experience in oil industry, new and upgraded drilling and production technologies. Imple-mentation of logistics technologies and comprehensive using of domestic possibilities has promoted the high re-turns reaching and new industrial sec-tors creating.

Keywords: the Norwegian petroleum regime, better technology, improved lo-gistics, upgraded technics and extra revenue generation

560

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Shcherbanin Yu.A., Ivin E.A., Kurbat-skiy A.N., Glazunova A.A. Econometric Modeling and Demand Forecasting of Rail Freight Trans-portation in Russia in 1992-2015

Interdependency – freight demand vs. macroeconomic situation with vari-ables as industrial production index and GDP is the key issues studied in the article. An econometric analysis using three models, namely Linear re-gression model, Autoregressive model with distributed lag and Unlimited vector model of autoregression was made. Some estimations of the de-pendence between volumes of cargo transported and cargo turnover in the function of the determining variables were given, long-term elasticity of demand for freight transportation was calculated. Results of the study re-vealed both qualitative and quantita-tive impact of the economic situation in the country over the specific type of cargo transportation that could be used by economic agents in selecting the most optimal type of freight trans-portation.

Keywords: freight transportation de-mand, elasticity of demand, autoregres-sive model with distributed lag, vector model, ex post forecasting, industrial production index

561

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