FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007

• 5th year of effort w/ majority of the 22-funded FWI Projects active

• >125 peer-reviewed publications

• >>100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums

• > 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students

• Outreach efforts: Press conferences, media interviews (CNN, NY Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., NPR), 2 Congressional briefings--800K Google hits from Marika Holland’s rapid sea ice retreat study post AGU Press Conf.

Anticipated FWI Sunset Products & Activities: 2007+

• Many forthcoming individual project articles• JGR-Biogeosciences Special Issue (20-22 papers

accepted)• AGU-Eos FWI summary• Supported water-oriented session at 2007 Arctic Forum

• Arctic-CHAMP Capstone Synthesis WS (2008) (int’l as an IPY-affiliated meeting)

• Planning for IPY and beyond (HYCOS, HYDRA, ICARP II)

• Last All-Hands, Bodega Bay CA (cast as workshop on key findings)

• Perhaps another capstone…..

FALL 2007 AGU UNION SESSIONThe Modern and Recent Arctic

Environment

• Organized by Dennis Lettenmaier, Charles Vörösmarty, Jamie Morison, and Son Nghiem

• Recommended by AGU Program Committee to be Included as Union Session (High Profile and Large Attendance Historically)

• Forum for Bringing Together Work from Large Coordinated Efforts Such as FWI, ASOF, SEARCH, and Many Other Related Projects

• Review of Current State of the Arctic and it’s Recent Past are Timely Contributions to the International Polar Year (IPY)

FWI Synthesis ActivitiesWorking Group Updates

• Two Working Groups Initially Formed at 2004 FWI All-Hands Meeting in Woods Hole; Third Working Group Formed at 2006 All-Hands Meeting in Estes Park– “Budgeteers” WG (Mark Serreze, Richard Lammers, Craig Lee, and Dick

Moritz) -- goals accomplished, paper published, group ‘disbanded’– “CAWG” (Changes, Attributions, Impacts and Implications) WG (Marika

Holland, Jennifer Francis, Craig Lee, Max Holmes, Dan White) group making steady progress; 1 paper in press for JGR Biogeosciences FWI Special Issue, 2nd paper in progress

– “Intensifiers” WG (Michael Rawlins, lead) formed at 2006 Estes Park Meeting and making good progress; paper submitted to 2007 Fall AGU Meeting

– Central Role in Synthesis and Integration Activities

• Conference Calls ~Bi-Monthly, Coordinated by Arctic-CHAMP SMO– Larry Hinzman, Charlie Vörösmarty, and Jonathan Pundsack Participate

in Calls– Making Steady Progress

Budgeteers Progress and PlansSerreze M. C., A. P. Barrett, A. G. Slater, R. A. Woodgate, K. Aagaard, R. B. Lammers, M. Steele, R. Moritz, M. Meredith, C. M. Lee

(2006),

The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic,

J. Geophys. Res.,

111, C11010, doi:10.1029/2005JC003424.

The Arctic Freshwater System: Changes and Impacts

Daniel M. White, Larry Hinzman, Lilian Alessa, John Cassano, Molly Chambers, Kelly Falkner, Jennifer Francis, William J. Gutowski, Jr., Marika Holland, R. Max Holmes, Henry Huntington, Douglas Kane, Andrew Kliskey, Craig Lee, Jim McClelland, Bruce Peterson, Scott Rupp, Fiamma Straneo, Michael Steele, Rebecca Woodgate, Daqing Yang, Kenji Yoshikawa, Tingjun Zhang

FWI Special Issue JGR Biogeosciences, 2007.

Changes and Attributions Working Group CAWG

Variablestocks = boldfluxes = italics

Period of Record

Current Trend and Confidence

Observed

LandChanges

Permafrost Storage

Active Layer Thickness–

–Eurasia–North America

1956-20001990-2002

+ / confidentno trend / confident

Soil Moisture 1960 – 2000 +/- / confident

Lakes/Wetlands +/- / confident

River Q – –Eurasian– North American– Hudson Bay

1936-20031975-20001964-2000

+ / confidentNo trend/ confident- / confident

Atmos.Changes

Atmospheric Moisture Transport

+ / confident

Atmospheric Storage

+ / confident

Precipitation–over land N.A.–over land Eurasia–over ocean

- / confidentno trend / confidentno trend / uncertain

Precipitation – Evaporation

–over land N.A.–over land Eurasia–over ocean

+ / confident uncertain+ / confident

Ocean Changes

Arctic Ocean - / confident

North Atlantic / Nordic Sea

+ / confident

Labrador Sea + / confident

Sea ice–area–volume–first year

1978-pres.1960s-pres.1978-pres.

- / very confident- / confident+ / very confident

Bering Strait 1999- pres Decreasing between 1999 and 2001

Increasing between 2001 and 2004

/confident

Fram Strait outflow – liquid

1979-2002

Fram Strait outflow–ice volume–ice area

1979-2002 + / confident

Canadian Arch. outflow

–liquid–ice

+ / confident

Hudson Strait unknown

Variablestocks = boldfluxes = italics

Period of Record

Current Trend and Confidence Observed

Land Changes

Permafrost StorageActive Layer Thickness––Eurasia–North America

1956-20001990-2002

+ / confidentno trend / confident

Soil Moisture 1960 – 2000 +/- / confident

Lakes/Wetlands +/- / confident

River Q – –Eurasian– North American– Hudson Bay

1936-20031975-20001964-2000

+ / confidentNo trend/ confident- / confident

Atmospheric Changes

Atmospheric Moisture Transport

+ / confident

Atmospheric Storage

+ / confident

Precipitation–over land N.A.–over land Eurasia–over ocean

- / confidentno trend / confidentno trend / uncertain

Precipitation – Evaporation –over land N.A.–over land Eurasia–over ocean

+ / confident uncertain+ / confident

Ocean Changes

Arctic Ocean - / confident

North Atlantic / Nordic Sea

+ / confident

Labrador Sea + / confident

Sea ice–area–volume–first year

1978-pres.1960s-pres.1978-pres.

- / very confident- / confident+ / very confident

Bering Strait 1999- pres Decreasing between 1999 and 2001Increasing between 2001 and 2004/confident

Fram Strait outflow – liquid

1979-2002

Fram Strait outflow–ice volume–ice area

1979-2002 + / confident

Canadian Arch. outflow–liquid–ice

+ / confident

Hudson Strait unknown

Central Question: How do trends drawn from observations compare with model depictions of the Arctic water cycle?

Study Goals:- examination of trends in freshwater fluxes- benchmarks for expected changes from ensemble of

GCM runs- identification of potential mechanistic linkages

Water cycle trends can be expressed as:

- extreme event (floods, droughts, etc.)

- change in a stock (lakes, soil moisture)

- change in a flux (precipitation, runoff, ET)change in a flux (precipitation, runoff, ET)

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle?

Trend Analysis of the Arctic System

Freshwater Cycle: Observations and

Expectations

Focus of

FWI “Intensifiers” Study

The Intensifiers

Emphasis on pan-Arctic, long-term trends

Candidate Transports- Land: flux convergence, precipitation, evapotranspiration,

river discharge- Ocean: flux convergence, precipitation, evaporation, Bering

Strait inflow, export through Canadian archipelago, Fram Strait liquid, Fram Strait ice

Candidate Storages-Atmospheric over Land, subsurface over land, atmospheric

over ocean, liquid and solid in ocean

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle?

Trend Analysis of the Arctic System

Freshwater Cycle: Observations and

Expectations

The Intensifiers

The Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring

Program (Arctic-CHAMP)

Resolving and quantifying the system interconnections is the first step to prediction

• Integration doesn’t just happen: Resources/thinking needed to integrate otherwise independent studies

• Consensus-building: Needs coordinating structure w/ suitable balance of top-down & bottom-up approaches

• Shared sense of purpose: Clearly-stated, finite set of science questions & policy themes

• Focal points/concrete targets: Formulate active Working Groups with time tables for specific WG products

Lessons from the US National Science Foundation

FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study

• Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic hydrologic system

• Many of the changes are coincident with an accelerated hydrologic cycle

• Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated hemispheric change to diversified local-scale change

• Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for analyzing behavior of the fully linked water system

• Limits arise from incomplete data, model components, and approaches for linking these

Lessons from the US National Science Foundation

FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study

WHERE DO WE GOFROM HERE?

• SMO Support to FWI Investigations (2005-2007)

– Continuation of Current Functions– New Requests by FWI ‘Rank-and-File’ Members

Key scientific questions:

• What is the role of the Arctic Hydrological Cycle in the global climate system?

• What are the impacts of climate variability and change on the Arctic Hydrological Cycle?

• What are the feedbacks of changes in the Arctic Hydrological Cycle on the regional and global climate?

IPYArctic-HYDRA Concept

• Cluster of several hydrological projects within the IPY• Seed funding by the Nordic Council of Ministers,• Pending application for seed funding from IASC • Supported by WMO HWR, WMO CHy, WMO CBS,

WCRP/CliC• Participation of all Arctic Countries• Participation of all Arctic Hydrological Services

Climate

Permafrost

Glaciers

Geography

Hydrographic

network

SnowGeology

Components

Measurements

Models

Strategy

Arctic-HYDRA legacy:

• Near real time observations from a Pan-Arctic hydrometric network.

• Integrated data from LTHO for process studies

QUESTIONS?COMMENTS?INPUTS?IDEAS?