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Investment Forum 30 November 2017 1.30pm – 3.00pm Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre

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Page 1: Future_Generation_Investment_Forum_pr... (6.82 MB) · PDF fileTo the extent permissible by law, Future Generation ... – The company will re-start buying-back shares in next 6

Investment Forum 30 November 2017 1.30pm – 3.00pm Melbourne Convention & Exhibition Centre

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2

May 2017 Investment Forum – stock performance

Charities

Stream of annual donations

Fund managers Unique opportunity to

make a positive difference to

Australia’s future generations

Shareholders

Exposure to the best Australian and

global fund managers without

paying management or

performance fees

Fund Fund manager Company Code Logo Annualised total return

Wilson Asset Management Geoff Wilson Afterpay Holdings ASX: AFY 207.5%

Sandon Capital Gabriel Radzyminski

Mineral Deposits Limited

ASX: MDL 133.9%

Eley Griffiths Ben Griffiths Noni B Limited ASX: NBL 48.3%

Eley Griffiths Ben Griffiths PWR Holdings Limited

ASX: PWH 48.0%

Morphic Asset Management Jack Lowenstein Haseko Corporation 1808 JP 45.9%

Avenir Capital Adrian Warner Nexstar Media NXST US 28.4%

Cooper Investors Chris Dixon DiaSorin DIA IM 25.2%

Neuberger Berman Michael Dyer Whole Foods Market Inc WFM US 24.3%

Sandon Capital Gabriel Radzyminski Iluka Resources ASX: ILU 23.2%

Magellan Asset Management Nikki Thomas Apple AAPL US 20.5%

Average 60.5%

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Investment Forum

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Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared for use in conjunction with a verbal presentation and should be read in that context. The information in this presentation is

only intended for Australian residents. The purpose of this presentation is to provide information only and the contents of the presentation does not purport to

provide investment advice. We strongly suggest that investors read the Prospectus and consult a financial adviser prior to making any investment decision. The

presentation does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person and should not be used as the basis for

making investment, financial or other decisions. The information is selective and may not be complete or accurate for your particular purposes and should not be

construed as a recommendation to invest in Future Generation Investment Company Limited, Future Generation Global Investment Company Limited, Magellan

Asset Management Limited, Watermark Funds Management, Aveo Group, VGI Partners Limited, WD-40 Company Australia, Lanyon Asset Management Limited,

Global Construction Services, Antipodes Global Investment Partners, KT Corporation, Centennial Asset Management, HRL Holdings, Capitol Health Limited,

Morphic Asset Management, Bofl Federal Bank, ARCO Investment Management, Brain Resource Company, L1 Capital, NewsCorp, Wilson Asset Management

Limited and Origin Energy Limited. The information provided in the presentation is given in good faith and is believed to be accurate at the time of compilation.

Neither Future Generation Investment Company Limited, Future Generation Global Investment Company Limited nor its directors or employees make any

representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, timeliness or completeness of the information. To the extent permissible by law, Future Generation

Investment Company Limited, Future Generation Global Investment Company Limited and its directors and employees disclaim all liability (whether arising in

contract, tort, negligence or otherwise) for any error, omission, loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise). Neither Future Generation

Investment Company Limited, Future Generation Global Investment Company Limited nor its directors or employees guarantee or make any representation as to

the performance of Future Generation Investment Company Limited, Future Generation Global Investment Company Limited, the maintenance or repayment of

capital, the price at which shares may trade or any particular rate of return.

4

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Investment Forum

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Magellan|6

“China is going to be bigger, stronger and more robust than any market in the world…” – Shultz, Apr 2017

Source: Company disclosures & Census data. Image: www.bizjournals.com. Notes: Consuming Class is defined as the entire population for Australia and the US (24M and 301M). For China it is defined as 600M people, v the 1.1Bn population.

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KFCAustralia McDonaldsUS StarbucksUS KFCChina StarbucksChina

Restaurants/Mill' Consuming Class

•  Habitual•  Delicious•  Growingpenetrationofbeverageoccasions•  Alittleaddictive•  Social

RP044

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Investment Forum

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AveoGroup•  AveoGroup(ASX:AOG)istheonlyASX200listedcompanyfocussedsolely

onretirement.Thecompanydevelopsandoperatesretirementvillagesandagedcarefacilities

•  Investmentopportunity:–  Shareshavemateriallyde-ratedsinceJune2017negativeFourCorners/Fairfax

Mediacoverageofretirementchargingmodel–  Businessmodelappearsundisrupted,salesratesarerecovering

•  Targetprice:>$4.1pershareorc.60%upside–  Shareshistoricallytradedabovetangible-NAVwhichtodayis$3.3pershareand

willbe>$4.1pershareintwoyearstime–  Returnoncapitalisimprovingthereforebookvaluetargetpricemaybe

conservative–  SimilarLeadLeaseretirementportfoliosoldtoDutchpensionfundinOctober

2017ata“smallpremiumtocarryingvalue”–  Thecompanywillre-startbuying-backsharesinnext6monthsfollowing

Brisbaneofficebuildingsale•  Risks:

–  Unitsalesratesmaynotrecoverto1H17levels–  Lowerhouseprices–  Regulatorychange–  Furthernegativepress

12,43311,222

9,478

5,100

838

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

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12,000

14,000

LendLease Aveo Stockland RetireAustralia

Ingenia

RetirementVillageOperatorsbyUnitsManaged

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Investment Forum

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WD-40 Company

A brand management company: “buy a commodity – sell a brand”

Source: Bloomberg, VGI Partners

Household brand

Consistent organic growth

High return on capital

High cash flow generation

Strong balance sheet

Asset light business model

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Investment Forum

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Future Generation Investment Forum

Global Construction Services (ASX: GCS)

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

ExchangeTicker

Currentshareprice52weekhigh/lowMarketCapitalisationNetCash(2018F)EnterpriseValue

$32m$139m

ASXGCS.ASX

0.81$0.48/$0.90

$171m

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Investment Forum

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Confidential/14

KT Corporation– Korean Broadband Leader Korea’s fixed line Telco can become a cash machine

Irrational extrapolation

•  Government and regulatory concerns

•  5G capex spend is a big risk

•  Korea is an ex Growth telco market

Multiple ways of winning

•  Low fiber capex risk: Near completed fiber network capex, returns to follow

•  Low 5G capex risk: Korea already has a highly densified cell site network

•  Hidden value in real estate now being developed, potentially worth KRW~7tn or 100% of market capitalisation

Margin of safety

•  Telco sector historically very cheap

•  2.5x EV/EBITDA, 0.6x EV/Sales, 16% FCF Yield

Correlation cluster

•  Chinese Telco’s, Telecom Italia, Bharti Airtel Source: Factset

EV/Sales vs sector: KT de-rated materially

% Fiber connections of total broadband

Long example

0.0x 0.1x 0.2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.5x 0.6x 0.7x 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x

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Price (L) Relative EV/SALES (R)

Source: OECD December 2016 “Broadband Statistics” report 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Greece

Ireland

Austria

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

USA

Netherlands

Mexico

Australia

OECD

Spain

Norway

Sweden

Korea

Japan

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Investment Forum

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HRL Holdings (HRL.AX)

FY17 FY18EHRL Analytica Combined HRL Analytica Combined

Revenue 21.2 8.7 29.9 22.2 11.0 33.2

GrossProfit 10.6 4.4 15.1 11.4 5.6 17.0%margin 50% 51% 50% 51% 51% 51%

EBITDA 2.7 3.2 5.9 3.2 4.0 7.3%margin 13% 37% 20% 15% 37% 22%

•  ExpansionofAnalyticaoperationsinAustralia

•  Blue-skyinvestment–26%interestinCAIQTest

•  Soundbalancesheet

CurrentValuation*

No.ofShares 496.3M

CurrentPrice $0.10

MarketCap 49.6

EnterpriseValue 53.5

FY18EEV/EBITDA 7.3*Includesallnewscripissuedandearnoutspostacquisition

Source:HRLPresentation17/10/17–pro-formaearningsforecast,$mAUD

HRLHoldingsisadiversifiedenvironmentalandgeotechnicalserviceproviderwithofficesandlaboratoryfacilitiesacrossAustraliaandNewZealand.

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Capitol Health (CAJ.AX)

FY17 FY18Guidance FY19CentennialEst.

Revenue 165.0 123.5 157.0

EBITDA 22.2 22.5 30.0%margin 13% 18% 19%

•  DiagnosticImagingmarketimprovement(c.5%growth)•  Acquisitionpipeline(35-40mnetcash,EV/EBITDAmultiple5.5x)•  Managementexecutingonstrategy

CurrentValuation

No.ofShares 804M

CurrentPrice $0.305

MarketCap 245

EnterpriseValue 206

FY19EEV/EBITDA 8.2

FY19EPE 15.1

Source:CAJAGMPresentation

CapitolHealthisaleadingproviderofdiagnosticimagingservicestotheAustralianhealthcaremarket.

CAJFY17 CAJFY18E IDXFY18E CombinedFY18E CombinedFY19ERevenue 165.0 115.0 187.0 302.0 317.1EBITDAUnderlying 22.2 22.0 37.0 64.0 67.2

margin 13% 19% 20% 21% 21%NPATUnderlying 4.8 9.5 16.8 30.1 31.7MC($M) 154.6 245.2 274.1 550.5 550.5EV($M) 196.1 206.4 323.1 620.5 620.5PE 32.5 25.9 16.3 18.2 17.3EV/EBITDA 8.8 9.4 8.7 9.7 9.2

Post-announcementofIntegralDiagnostic(IDX.AX)takeover:

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Investment Forum

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Focussed | Vigilant | Agile 19

Short squeeze?

ü  Cheap ü  Fast growing ü  Innovative & Hated?

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Investment Forum

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Brain Resource Company (BRC)

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Marketandproductneed–Mentalhealthillnessisepidemic.BRC’sIPassets(whichincludetheworld’slargestbrainfunctiondatabase)directlyaddressthementalhealthfault-line,whichcosts>US$200bnannuallyintheUS,andwhichisruiningtheeconomicsoftheAustralianinsuranceindustry(APRAdata).

Failure=>restructure–BRChaslong,deepandverycostly(c$70mR&D)rootsinbrainscience.EnjoyedearlysuccesswithiSPOT,andadoptionofMBSinUSAbyfiveinsurersand28blue-chipcorporates.Morerecently,commercialisationofIPassetshasfailed–leadingtoafundamentalrestructureofthecompany.New,newBRC–all-newmanagement:fourexecsex-Amazon,Yodle,Monster,andPrivateEquity,withdeepdigitalbusiness(SaaS)andmarketingcredentials.BRCnowhasaclearandmuchnarrowergo-to-marketstrategycentredondrivingadoption/pricingwithinexistingcustomersininsurance(196millionlivescovered)andcorporatewellness.Recapitalised,incentivised–$10mequityraiseandsimplifiedcapitalstructure,viaconversionof$14mof(senior)CBsecurities.Managementhavebeenhugelyincentivised,viaanESOP(primarily“atrisk”grants)overc20%ofdilutedcapital.Executioniskey–MBShasahardsciencebaselackingincompetitorofferings,asendorsedbyitsqualitycustomerbase.Nowhavetoreinvest(MBSmobile2.0/UX/CRMandsales)todrivepenetrationandyield.HighlyscalableSaaSmodel,capableofsupportingahighEV/salesmultipleasgrowthaccelerates.

BRC: pro-forma capitalisation(A$ millions) 30/09/2017 Pro-forma (1)

Cash 0.7 10.2 CB debt 14.0- - Net cash (debt) 13.3- 10.2

Equity capitalisation - primary 11.7 35.6 Equity capitalisation - diluted 16.9 53.2 Enterprise value - diluted 30.2 43.0 (1) Pro-forma for $10m capital raise; conversion of CB's

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Investment Forum

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AFSL 314 302

NewsCorp (NWS)

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Investment Forum

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Investment Forum

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ASX: ORG

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Investment Forum