future planning in power grid
DESCRIPTION
Presented at the 10th Electric Power Control Center Conference in Dublin, Ireland, June 17, 2009TRANSCRIPT
Future System Planning to Meet New Challenges
Stephen Lee
Senior Technical Executive Power Delivery & Utilization
June 17, 2009
10th International Workshop on Electric Power Control CentersDublin, Ireland
2© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Outline
• Holistic Power Supply and Delivery Chain – Foundations for a Smart Grid
• Holistic Planning
• Raising the Bar on Reliability Standards
• Key Messages
– Focus on Benefits to Cost Payback
– Consider all parts together (Holistic approach)
– Remove deficiencies in foundations
– Implement new solutions
3© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI Report on Holistic Power Supply and Delivery Chain (Report #1018587)
• Presented and used in Brainstorming session in support of NASPI (North America Synchro-Phasor Initiative), October 2008
• Presented at Carnegie Mellon Smart Grid Conference, March 2009
• Major building blocks to create real values from the Smart Grid of the future
4© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
End-uses & DR
Distribution SystemTransmission System
Energy Storage
Fuel Supply System
Fuel Source/Storage
Power Plants
Renewable Plants
Data CommunicationData Communication
Wide Area ControlWide Area Control
Sensors
Controllers
ZIP
M
Dynamic Load ModelsDynamic Power Plant Models
End-to-End Power Delivery Chain Operation & Planning
Monitoring, Modeling, Analysis, Coordination & ControlMonitoring, Modeling, Analysis, Coordination & Control
5© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Foundations Need Strengthening
• End-to-End Situational Awareness
• Alarm Management and Real-Time Root-Cause Diagnosis
• Dynamic Models of all Generators and Loads
• Faster System Restoration
• System Integrity Protection Schemes
– Faster reflex actions on wide-area problems
– Measurement-based safety nets to prevent cascading blackouts, e.g., load shedding, islanding/separation, damping
6© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
New Solutions Are Needed
• Optimal end-to-end commitment and dispatch by ISO/RTO as backstop for system reliability
• Virtual Service Aggregators serving as Energy Balancing Authorities– Dispatch and control stochastic renewable generation– Dispatch and control (and own?) large scale energy storage
plants– Manage demand response proactively– Manage smart electric vehicle charging
• “Virtual” Vertically Integrated Utilities– Own/operate Generation/renewable/storage, some transmission,
& Virtual Service Aggregator– Interstate ownership and operation (overcome NIMBY-ism)
• National/Continental Backbone Transmission Grid– Holistic transmission planning– Virtual RTO– Transmission toll collection system
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/author.cfm?at_id=259
7© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Potential Role of the Virtual Service Aggregator (Virtual Vertically Integrated Utility)
TraditionalCentral StationPower Plants
TraditionalCentral StationPower Plants
Large-ScaleRenewableResources
Large-ScaleRenewableResources
Large-ScaleEnergyStorage
Large-ScaleEnergyStorage
TransmissionGrid
TransmissionGrid
Real RegionalControl Center
Real RegionalControl Center
VirtualService
Aggregator
VirtualService
Aggregator
End Usesand
DistributedResources
End Usesand
DistributedResources
FinancialSettlement ofNet Difference
Power Flow
FinancialTransaction
LoadsLoads
PHEVsPHEVs
DistributedGeneration& Storage
DistributedGeneration& Storage
S
8© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
What is Holistic Planning?
• Holistic Planning is to develop a whole or a part of the electric power system, with full consideration of the WHOLE, responsive to the public, modeling all reasonably probable scenarios of uncertainties affecting planning as well as future power system operating conditions, with additional tests to assess the robustness of the system when exposed to “unlikely” but potentially devastating disturbances or other events, in order to achieve a system which has:
– Economic efficiency
– Adequate reliability
– Acceptable environmental impacts
9© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Tier 1 Costs(Direct Costs)
Total Cost = Tier 1 Cost + Tier 2 Cost
* Best Decision
Tier 2 Costs (Public Good)
Decision is not optimal if Tier 2 costs are ignored
Optimal Decisions
10© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Boundary Conditions
Transmission and GeneratorConnectivity and Topology
Power F
lows
–M
W
Lo
ad a
nd
Vo
ltag
e P
rofi
le
OperatingState – “You are here”
Inside Boundary Conditions
System OperatingLimits
Outside BoundaryConditions
Transmission and GeneratorConnectivity and Topology
Power F
lows
–M
W
Lo
ad a
nd
Vo
ltag
e P
rofi
le
OperatingState – “You are here”
Inside Boundary Conditions
System OperatingLimits
Outside BoundaryConditions
Lo
ad
Gener
atio
n Dis
patch
11© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Boundary = N-2 Contingency Criteria
N-1 criteria enforce possibly uneven reliability
N-1
12© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Holistic Transmission Planning
• White space is the inside of the CAR (community Activity Room) where operation is reliable
• Future growth requires operating outside the white space
• How do we expand the grid to fit all future operating conditions (described by the ellipse?)
• CAR gives the holistic answer by moving all necessary walls the right amount (increase capacities of line 1-4 by 2500 MW and 2-4 by 1200 MW)
Line 2-4
Line 1-4
13© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NERC TPL-001-01 (Transmission System Planning Performance Requirements) “Raises the Bar”
• Draft 3 posted on 5/26/09 - Comments due 7/9/09
• Loss of Non-Consequential Load or interruption of firm transfers is no longer allowed for certain events (effects of cascading outages)
• May have significant budget, siting, permitting, and construction impacts on many Transmission Owners
• Submit standard(s) to NERC Board – 1Q2010
• Submit to regulatory authorities for approval – 1Q2010
Implications:
Need to study cascading outages
Need to assure system stability with sufficient confidence
14© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Concept of an MRI of Power System Reliability Metrics
• Transmission Planners need a scanner of the entire power grid to identify the state of health of the whole power system
• Even seasoned planners lack a tool for an overview of the study results from the large volume of power flow study cases involving large number of planning scenarios and contingencies
• Very difficult to digest and analyze
• A MRI-like tool can be investigated conceptually in combination with visualization tools, using power flow cases as the input data
15© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI Research Projects Helpful for Meeting TPL-001-01
• Prediction and Online Risk Monitoring of Potential Cascading Modes
– ConEd, NYPA, Entergy, ISO New England, Exelon, AEP, FirstEnergy, TriState G&T
– Phase II
• Fast Fault Screening for Transient Stability
– Entergy, NYSERDA
– Phase II on system-wide stability screening
Unlikely events withunacceptableconsequences
Likely events withunacceptableconsequences
Unlikely events withacceptable
consequences
Likely events withacceptable
consequences
Risk
More Likely
More
Un
accep
tab
le
Normal Weather Risk Exposure to One Cascading ModeWith 1 Line on Maintenance Outage &
System (6750 MW Load) Not Compliant with N-1
Risk of Contingencies
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Probability of Contingency
Ove
rlo
ad /
Lo
ad S
hed
(M
W)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
PRI = 150 MW
PRI = 90 MW
PRI = 50 MW
PRI = 25 MW
Initiating Event
Tier 1 Cascade
Tier 3 Cascade PRI = 200 MW
Tier 2 Cascade
Concept of Online Risk Monitor
Unacceptable Risk
Acceptable Risk
Storm Increases Risk Exposure to One Cascading ModeWith 1 Line on Maintenance Outage &
System (6750 MW Load) Not Compliant with N-1
Risk of Contingencies
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Probability of Contingency
Ove
rlo
ad /
Lo
ad S
hed
(M
W)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
PRI = 150 MW
PRI = 90 MW
PRI = 50 MW
PRI = 25 MW
Initiating Event
Tier 1 Cascade
Tier 3 Cascade PRI = 200 MW
Tier 2 Cascade
Concept of Online Risk Monitor
Unacceptable Risk
Acceptable Risk
18© 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Conclusions
• Holistic Planning – works for central planning, free markets or mixed environment
• What is the optimal level of reliability?
• Key Messages for Smart Grid:
– Focus on Benefits to Cost Payback
– Consider all parts together (Holistic approach)
– Remove deficiencies in foundations
– Implement new solutions
THANK [email protected]