future of voice - the new value chain
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Voice Workshop
New Value Chain
8th October 2013Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
[email protected]@martingeddes.com
SAFETYOF LIFE
TRIVIA
Voice = Telecoms
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SAFETYOF LIFE
TRIVIA
Voice = Telecoms Voice = IT
Growth opportunity
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SAFETYOF LIFE
TRIVIA
Growth opportunity
Classictelco voice
Cloudvoice
Hybridvoice
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Example cloud voice service
3% of population are hearing-impaired
“Rich deaf” willing to be re-connected to society
Telephone hearing aid adaptation in the cloud Requires assured packet
network PSTN voice acts as filter
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Classictelco voice
Cloudvoice
Hybridvoice
0%
100%
VA
LU
E F
RO
MT
RA
NS
PO
RT
?
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SAFETYOF LIFE
TRIVIA
SLOWTEMPO
FASTTEMPO
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SAFETYOF LIFE
TRIVIA
Growth opportunity
TDM ?“VoIP” and “VuIP”
100% MANAGED& ASSURED
OTT
MANAGEDOR ASSURED
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SAFETYOF LIFE
TRIVIA
WHEN & HOW?
OTT
MANAGEDOR ASSURED
“Cloud voice world”
Legacy
The end game?
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OTT
ASSUREDCLOUD
CONNECTIVITY
“Cloud voice world”
Legacy
One small problem…
(Almost) nobodyknows how to:
MakeSell Buy
this capability
How to build digital supply chains for cloud services?
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Cloud voice – not so many players (yet)!
Oct 2013
INFRASTRUCTURESERVICEPLATFORMS
WHOLESALEACCESS
RETAILACCESS
NOBODY
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Voice service supply chain management
How to build a composable value chain like TDM? Need underlying transport with strong-enough timing properties. SDN/NFV – cost saint or performance sinner?
How to create SLAs? To measure conformance? How to spot “cheats”?
Application performance hazard space – how to model? When is it “good enough”?
Substitute for other activities – how to make these dependable enough? Who provides service assurance? (where required & applicable)
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…
Speed of transition to cloud voice services Boundary between managed and OTT Application richness/application performance & quality trade-
off: Does it exist (and in which direction!) Is it worth it?
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…
Where and when will “assured IP voice transport” emerge? How will fixed vs mobile “cloudify”? Where will this happen – US/Europe/ROW? Will there be a “tipping point” and telephony gets
WhatsApp’d? Will this be driven from the telco or IT supply chain?
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Questions I don’t (yet) have good answers to…
Proprietary vs FOSS s/w Cheap raw inputs; NEPs squeezed
Supply shock to traditional telco equipment market? “How many milliseconds am I from Amazon?” – what matters is
integration with cloud servers How to deal with legacy business?
Contracted in vs out – for operators; is voice a “white-label” service? What’s the role of the big IT vendors?
Meaning of Oracle/Acme; Intel/Aepona, etc B2C voice & CEBP remains a wildcard
Next-gen replacement for freephone? “Social voice e-commerce”?
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More supply chain questions & issues
Vendors: M&A, new biz models & partnerships
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Function
Two major trends in network infrastructure
Oct 2013
Proprietary Hardware
Commodity Hardware
VMs / Private Cloud
Hosted / Public Cloud
Control
Function
Control
Virtualisation of network elements (NFV)
Software-defined networks: separation of function from control (SDN)
(Can also apply to some OSS functions)
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What % of future telco value comes from 3GPP?
Oct 2013
The Theory The Reality
Core ntwk & legacy
voice
IMS, eventually
Corporate UC
Cisco / MS Lync
Video conf
Bluejeans / Vidyo etc
Developer APIs
Twillio / Voxeo
• Various telco business units are now disintermediating their own core network / platform• Increasingly partnering with 3rd-party players for voice/video apps• What % of future equipment/server need will reside in IMS/3GPP domain vs. 3rd party
equipment or cloud platforms?
VoLTE & RCS
IMS as a platform
Corporate UC
Video conf
Developers
Network APIs
Consumer Business OTTs
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Exercise
Exercise
Oct 2013
Call centre operator --
home worker
Grandmother
Travellingsalesperson
Teenager
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Exercise
What are their use cases in 5 years’ time?
What happens in their day?
What do they buy? How is it packaged &
sold? Who is making it
happen?
Infrastructure? Traditional service
provider or not? APIs? App on phone? Web giants involved? Device? Connectivity? Platforms?
Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
Get in touch
We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more
Oct 2013
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