future of us global leadership

7/27/2019 Future of Us Global Leadership

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George W. Bush, Barack Obama

and the future of US global leadership

JAMES M. LINDSAY

International Afairs87:4 (2011) 765779 2011 The Author(s). International Aairs 2011 The Royal Institute o International Aairs. Published by Blackwell PublishingLt, 9600 Garsingtn Ra, Or ox4 2dq, UK an 350 Main Street, Malen, MA 02148, USA.

The ecae since September 11 has seen tw cmpeting US reign plicyvisins. Gerge W. Bushs respnse t the attack was t eclare a glbal war n

terrrism. Cnvince that the Unite States ace an eistential threat abette byther states an ptimistic abut the capacity American pwer t reshape thewrl, the Unite States went n the ensive. In Aghanistan, it ught t killr capture Al-Qaea ghters an their supprters. In Ira, it ught t break theneus terrrists, tyrants an technlgies mass estructin. But the Ira warpruce smething Bush ha nt anticipatea prtracte an bly ccupa-tin that emnstrate the limits American pwer. Criticism US reignplicy sare, bth at hme an abra.

Barack Obama tappe int the American publics isillusinment ver Ira anUS reign plicy mre generally by rejecting the cre principles Bushs wrl-view. In his analysis, Bush ha aile t see hw glbalizatin ha remae wrl

plitics. It ha isperse pwer arun the glbe an create a whle hst new prblems, which terrrism was just ne, that transcene brers. Greatmilitary pwer ha limite utility in such an envirnment, an the Unite Statescul nt g it alne. It neee partners t achieve its gals an prtect its inter-ests. An thse partners cul be wn ver nly thrugh iplmatic engagement,nt intimiatin.

Fr all the ierences between Bush an Obama, hwever, the tw sharea cmmn trait: a cnvictin that ther cuntries bth wante an neee USleaership. This cnvictin reecte Americas mre than hal a century successas the glbal superpwer. US leaership ha been essential t everything rm

creating the Unite Natins t leaing the wrl in liberating Kuwait. US glballeaership was nt a bast but a reality.

Yet even as Obama plege t begin renewing American leaership, the verytren he cite t criticize Bushs reign plicyglbalizatinwas at the leastcmplicating his erts an at the wrst unermining them.1 As Obama iscv-ere uring his rst tw years in fce, kin wrs, an pen han an a willing-ness t listen i nt guarantee cperatin, let alne reign plicy success. Hishpe-r partners ten isagree n the nature the prblem, what cnstitute

1 Barack Obama, Renewing American leaership, Foreign Afairs 84: 4, JulyAug. 2007, pp. 216.


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766International Afairs 87: 4, 2011Cpyright 2011 The Author(s). International Aairs 2011 The Royal Institute o International Aairs.

the prper slutin an wh shul bear the buren implementing it. They hatheir wn interests an pririties, an ten they were nt lking t Washingtnr irectin.

Hw t succee in a wrl in which ther cuntries are increasingly ignringr cntesting American leaership rather than embracing it is the verriingchallenge acing the Unite States in the years t cme. As Obama rightlyntes, much what he r any US presient wants t achieve verseas reuiresthe cperatin thers. But hw can that cperatin best be achieve? Thetemptatin is t cling t past ways ing business. Changing strategies, revisingpririties an revamping missins is plitically painul an ptentially angerus.But a reign plicy that ignres hw much the glbal envirnment has changewill yiel rustratin ar mre than accmplishment.

The war on terrorGerge W. Bush i nt set ut t remake US reign plicy. When he eclare hiscaniacy r the presiency in 1999 mestic issues tppe the plitical agena;reign plicy was an aterthught r mst Americans.2 Bush naturally lkeinwar rather than utwar uring the 2000 campaign an his rst eight mnths infce.3 Neither Al-Qaea specically nr terrrism mre braly gure prmi-nently when he i turn t reign plicy.

September 11 change that calculatin an with it the irectin Americanreign plicy. Fighting terrrism became nt just a pririty, but the pririty. Bushsaw September 11 nt just as a hrric act but as the maniestatin an eistential

threat n a par with thse pse by Nazi Germany an the Sviet Unin. This wasnt an rinary geplitical clash, but rather a struggle between g an evil thataecte all the wrls natins. As he tl murners at a natinal prayer servicethree ays ater the attacks: Our respnsibility t histry is clear: t answer theseattacks an ri the wrl evil.4

Bushs iagnsis the threat le inerably t a plicy prescriptin: a war nterrrism.5 Bth nuns in that rmulatin were signicant. The Unite Stateswul nt react eensively by relying n law enrcement an passive measureslike mre guars, guns an gates t prtect itsel; instea, it wul g n theensive. As he tl his avisers, We nee t ght verseas by bringing the wart the ba guys.6 The target wul g beyn Al-Qaea t inclue all glbalterrrists an the states that supprte them. In the wrs what became knwn

2 See Chicag Cuncil n Freign Relatins, American public pinin an US reign plicy, 1998 (AnnArbr, MI: Inter-university Cnsrtium r Plitical an Scial Science Research ).

3 See Iv H. Daaler an James M. Linsay, America unbound: the Bush revolution in oreign policy (Hbken, NJ:Jhn Wiley & Sns, 2005), ch. 5.

4 Gerge W. Bush, Presients remarks at Natinal Day Prayer an Remembrance Service, NatinalCathedral, Washington DC, 14 Sept. 2001, http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/ 2005/09/images/200509164_-0150515h.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

5 Gerge W. Bush, Statement by the Presient in his aress t the natin, White Huse, Washingtn DC, 11Sept. 2001, http://gergewbush-whitehuse.archives.gv/news/releases/2001/09/2001091116.html, accesse23 May 2011.

6 Qute in Bb Wwar, Bush at war(New Yrk: Simn & Schuster, 2002), p. 281.


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George W. Bush, Barack Obama and the uture o US global leadership


as the Bush Dctrine, We will make n istinctin between the terrrists whcmmitte these acts an thse wh harbr them.7

Bushs war n terrrism reste n ve assumptins. First, Americas glbal

minance, an especially its military minance, gave it an unpreceente abilityt take the ght verseas.8 Secn, Washingtns reluctance t respn militarilyt terrrist attacks ver the previus tw ecaes ha encurage Al-Qaea anits ilk. Vice-Presient Dick Cheney argue this pint reuently an rceully:Weakness, vacillatin, an the unwillingness the Unite States t stan withur riensthat is prvcative. It encurage peple like Osama bin Laen t launch repeate strikes against the Unite States, ur peple verseas an hereat hme, with the view that he cul, in act, s with impunity. 9

Thir, the Cl War ctrines eterrence an cntainment wul nt wrkwith terrrists.10 Threats t retaliate mean nthing t grups with n territry teen. That cnclusin was minus, given the ear that the net terrrist attack

might war September 11 in scpe. The anthra attacks autumn 2001 raisethe spectre large-scale bilgical terrrism. Intelligence reprts suggeste thatAl-Qaea might be able t buil railgical (irty) bmbs, i nt acuire anuclear weapn. The Unite States n lnger ha the luury absrbing anattack an then respning. It ha t be prepare t act pre-emptively.11

Furth, terrrists cul nt perate withut state supprt. Bush mae thispint eplicitly in his 2002 State the Unin Aress: Iran, Ira, Nrth Kreaan their terrrist allies cnstitute an ais evil. States hstile t the UniteStates might euip terrrists with weapns mass estructin. That mae thewar n terrrism inistinguishable rm the ert t stp rgue regimes. Inee,

within a ew shrt paragraphs ientiying the ais evil, Bush vwe thatthe Unite States America will nt permit the wrls mst angerus regimest threaten us with the wrls mst estructive weapns.12

Fith, alliances an multilateral rganizatins might ccasinally help theUnite States wage its war n terrrism, but they were nt essential. The UniteStates cul accmplish what it neee t militarily withut allie help, an itshul nt let ther states ictate what it cul . At sme pint we may be thenly nes let, Bush cncee. Thats kay with me. We are America. 13 Bushsunilateralism ha preate September 11, an it ha greatly straine transatlantic

7 Bush, Aress t the natin.

8 Fr an inicatin Republican thinking n the utility US military minance see Charles Krauthammer,The new unilateralism, Washington Post, 8 June 2001.

9 Vice-Presient Dick Cheney n NBC News, Meet the press, 16 March 2003, http://www.mthlyke.eu/aca/intrel/bush/cheneymeetthepress.htm, accesse 23 May 2011.

10 See Gerge W. Bush, The Presients news cnerence with Prime Minister Tny Blair the Unite King-m, 31 Jan. 2003, http://www.presiency.ucsb.eu/ws/ine.php?pi=63014#azz1MVDjXvI, accesse23 May 2011.

11 See Gerge W. Bush, Remarks at the 2002 grauatin eercise the Unite States Military Acaemy,West Pint, 1 June 2002, http://www.mthlyke.eu/aca/intrel/bush/westpint.htm; The National SecurityStrategy o the United States, Sept. 2002, http://www.au.a.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nss/nss_sep2002.p, bthaccesse 23 May 2011.

12 Gerge W. Bush, State the Unin Aress, Washingtn DC, 19 Jan. 2002, http://www.whitehuse.gv/news/releases/2002/01/2002012911.html, accesse 23 May 2003.

13 Qute in Wwar, Bush at war, p. 81.


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relatins.14 But he an his avisers were cnvince that, at the en the ay,because they were champining the interests their riens (i nt in the waythse riens might have preerre) an nt seeking avantage r themselves, allies

wul eventually rally t their sie.Bushs war n terrrism ha ne signicant cnseuence r American gran

strategy: talk Great Pwer cnict ae. During the campaign Bush haerie the Clintn aministratin r appeasing a rising China an inulging acrrupt Russia.15 Early in his presiency he seeme t be heaing r cnrnta-tin with bth cuntries. Yet when the Natinal Security Strategy appeare inSeptember 2002, things lke ierent: Tay, the internatinal cmmunityhas the best chance since the rise the natin-state in the seventeenth century tbuil a wrl where Great Pwers cmpete in peace instea cntinually preparer war. Tay, the wrls Great Pwers n urselves n the same sieuniteby cmmn angers terrrist vilence an chas.16 Bushs assessment that

Great Pwer interests were mre cmpatible than cmpetitive gave him cnsier-able leeway t eercise American pwer.

A superpowers limits

The Bush Dctrine was applie rst in Aghanistan. On 12 September 2001, theUnite Natins authrize all necessary steps t respn t the previus aysattacks.17 That same ay, NATO r the rst time in its histry invke article 5,bliging it t cme t the eence a member. Less than a week later, a near-unanimus US Cngress authrize Bush t use all necessary an apprpriate

rce against thse natins, rganizatins, r persns he etermines planne,authrize, cmmitte, r aie the terrrist attacks that ccurre n September11, 2001, r harbre such rganizatins r persns.18

Stuents cunteractual histry will lng speculate n hw Bushs reignplicy might have evlve ha Aghanistans leaer Mullah Omar hane verOsama bin Laen as the Unite States emane. He int, hwever, an theUnite States, jine by the rces nearly 20 cuntries, attacke Aghanistan inOctber.19 Despite a slw start, the US-le rces rute the Taleban in relativelyshrt rer. By early December, the Taleban gvernment ha cllapse.20

14 Fr eamples, see Daaler an Linsay,America unbound, pp. 616.15 Gerge W. Bush, A istinctly American internatinalism, speech at Rnal Reagan Presiential Library,

19 Nv. 1999, http://www.mthlyke.eu/aca/intrel/bush/wspeech.htm, accesse 23 May 2011. See alsCnleezza Rice, Prmting the natinal interest, Foreign Afairs 79: 1, Jan.Feb. 2000, pp. 226.

16 White Huse, The National Security Strategy o the United States , Sept. 2002, http://gergewbush-whitehuse.archives.gv/nsc/nss/2002/, accesse 23 May 2011.

17 UN Security Cuncil Reslutin 1368 (2001), apte 12 Sept. 2001, http://www.ilsa.rg/jessup/jessup08/basicmats/sc1368.p, accesse 23 May 2011.

18 Public Law 107-43, Authrizatin r the use military rce, 18 Sept. 2001, http://news.nlaw.cm/wp/cs/terrrism/sjres23.es.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

19 Daaler an Linsay,America unbound, p. 115.20 Fr an analysis US military strategy in eeating the Taleban in 2001, see Michael OHanln, A awe

masterpiece, Foreign Afairs 89: 3, MarchApril 2002, pp. 4763.


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Mst US allies assume Bush was pursuing an Aghanistan-nly plicy. Hewas, in act, pursuing an Aghanistan-rst strategy. With the Taleban tpple, hiscus shite t Ira. His avisers ha ebate whether t invae Ira immei-

ately ater September 11.21

Bush ha ecie against it as a rst step, but SaamHussein embie the cnvergence Bushs three earsterrrism, tyrants antechnlgies mass estructin. Althugh US intelligence agencies ha ntun any evience linking Saam Hussein t Al-Qaea, Bush believe that hewul like nthing mre than t use a terrrist netwrk t attack an t kill anleave n ngerprints behin.22 Given the stakes, the Unite States cul nt wait,as Cnleezza Rice put it, r the smking gun t be a mushrm clu. 23

Bushs ecisin, then, was nt whether t g t war with Ira but hw tget there. Aministratin fcials gave numerus speeches an interviews in theattempt t persuae Americans that Iras weapns mass estructin (WMD)capability pse an unacceptable threat. The ert succeee. In Octber 2002,

the US Cngress authrize war against Ira. Bush sught a similar vte rm theUN Security Cuncil. He i s r instrumental reasnsa UN authrizatinwul shre up mestic plitical supprt an put mre pressure n Bagha. Hei nt believe, hwever, that he neee the UNs blessing t g t war. Whenthat blessing int cme, the Unite States, with the supprt a calitin the willing that in terms trp cntributins cnsiste primarily Britainan t a lesser etent Australia an Plan, invae Ira in March 2003ver thestrient bjectins much the rest the wrl.

Bagha ell even mre rapily than Kabul ha, in less than ur weeks. Butcelebratins missin accmplishe prve premature. By summer 2003, an

insurgency grippe much Ira. Bush attribute the prblem t a ailure tanticipate the cnseuences catastrphic success.24 Planning r the pstwarccupatin ha assume that US rces wul han ver pwer t the Irais atera ew mnths. This reecte Bushs ielgical istaste r natin-builing, whichate back t the campaign.25

As the insurgency gaine strength, the Ira Survey Grup (ISG) sught t nIras WMD. Despite the wrk 1,400 peple an an investment mre thanUS$1 billin, n nuclear, chemical r bilgical weapns were iscvere. Thehea the ISG tl the US Senate that when it came t Iras WMD prgrammewe were almst all wrng.26 The wars primary ratinale was mistaken.

With n WMD t be un, Bush increasingly justie the war in terms prmting emcracy in Ira an eventually the rest the Arab wrl. Freem

21 See Wwar, Bush at war, ch. 6.22 Bush, The Presients news cnerence with Prime Minister Tny Blair.23 CNN, Late eitin with Wl Blitzer, 8 Sept. 2002, http://transcripts.cnn.cm/TRANSCRIPTS/0209/08/

le.00.html, accesse 23 May 2011.24 Ive gaine strength, interview with Gerge W. Bush, Time, 6 Sept. 2004, p. 38, http://www.time.cm/time/

cvers/1101040906/, accesse 23 May 2011.25 See e.g. Bushs cmments in The secn 2000 GreBush presiential ebate, 11 Oct. 2000, http://www.pbs.

rg/newshur/bb/electin/2000ebates/2nebate1.html, accesse 23 May 2011.26 Davi Kay, testimny bere the US Senate, Cmmittee n Arme Services, 28 Jan. 2004, http://

articles.cnn.cm/20040128/plitics/kay.transcript_1_ira-survey-grup-wm-weapns-inspectr?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS, accesse 23 May 2011.


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ha been a theme Bushs public cmments ating back t his rst campaignspeech.27 It ha nt, hwever, previusly been a pririty. But it became an eec-tive rhetrical evice r blunting mestic critics. It iverte attentin rm the

WMD uestin an rce ppnents either t agree with him r t eplain whythey ppse spreaing emcracy.

In his secn inaugural aress, Bush pivte away rm the riginal BushDctrine an psitine emcracy prmtin as a leaing gal Americanreign plicy, eclaring: It is the plicy the Unite States t seek an supprtthe grwth emcratic institutins in every natin an culture, with theultimate gal ening tyranny in ur wrl.28 Just weeks ater the aress,Secretary State Rice cancelle a trip t Egypt in prtest at the arrest anEgyptian emcracy activist. When Rice nally went t Cair later that year shepublicly tl a gathering Egyptian rermers, All ree natins will stan withyu as yu secure the blessings yur wn liberty.29

Bushs reem agena, hwever, sn hit prblems. One was that the amin-istratin ha n strategy t accmplish its lty gal. Just weeks ater the secninaugural aress, Bush submitte a buget reuest that actually cut uns rthe gvernments emcracy prmtin erts.30 A secn prblem was thatemcracy prmtin ten cnicte with ther imprtant US reign plicygals, mst ntably cuntering terrrism. Many the allies in the war n terrrwere autcracies. Demaning that they embrace emcratic rerm riske lsingtheir cperatin n terrrism. A thir prblem was that emcracy culpruce gvernments hstile t US interests. That happene ramatically in early2006 when Palestinians vte Hamas int pwer, an utcme the Bush aminis-

tratin ha thught impssible.31

Nt surprisingly, autcratic Arab gvernmentssuenly hel new appeal. During Rices January 2007 visit t Egypt, she rppeall public talk emcracy an instea stresse that the US relatinship withEgypt is an imprtant strategic relatins that we value greatly.32

By the en Bushs secn term in fce the limits t American pwer wereshwing. The Unite States cul tpple regimes with remarkable spee.33 Itcul nt, hwever, easily snu ut insurgencies r rebuil brken gvernments.Despite epeniture mre than hal a trillin llars, US trps were stillghting in Iraan in 2007 Bush ispatche 20,000 aitinal US sliers t tryt curtail the vilence there. Meanwhile, in Aghanistan the Taleban ha regainethe initiative, putting pressure n Hami Karzais gvernment an sparkingvilence acrss the brer in Pakistan.

27 Bush, A istinctly American internatinalism.28 Gerge W. Bush, Presient Bushs secn inaugural aress, 20 Jan. 2005, http://www.npr.rg/templates/

stry/stry.php?stryI=4460172, accesse 23 May 2011.29 Cnleezza Rice, Remarks at the American University in Cair, 20 June 2005, http://merln.nu.eu/

archivep/NEA/State/48328.p, accesse 23 May 2011.30 Daaler an Linsay,America unbound, p. 198.31 Steven R. Weisman, Rice amits US unerestimate Hamas strength, New York Times, 30 Jan. 2006.32 Cnleezza Rice, Remarks with Egyptian reign minister Abul Gheit, 25 Jan. 2007, http://unispal.

un.rg/UNISPAL.NSF/0/4F64E01FD3F94ED685257266004F72BD, accesse 23 May 2011.33 See Ma Bt, The new American way war, Foreign Afairs 82: 4, JulyAug. 2003, pp. 4158.


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Fleing American muscles in Ira an Aghanistan als ha nt pruce thesupplementary benets that Bush ha anticipate. Rather than being cwe byhis threats, Iran an Nrth Krea cntinue with their nuclear prgrammes

inee, in 2006 Pyngyang teste its rst atmic bmb. Allie leaers ha ntrallie arun Bushs leaership but rather ha istance themselves rm it,in g part because their citizens ppse US plicies.34 At hme, the USgvernments ecit tppe US$500 billin, an a majrity Americans wanteut Ira. This was nt what Bush ha envisine when he eclare the warn terrr.

The promise of transformation

Barack Obama in a way we his plitical success t Gerge W. Bush. Obamawas an bscure Illinis state legislatr when he use an anti-war rally in Chicag

in Octber 2002 t enunce Bushs march twars a umb war.35 The speechbecame pivtal uring the 2008 Demcratic presiential nminatin campaign.Hillary Clintn an ther leaing Demcratic presiential caniates ha vter the war; Obama smartly argue that he ha ppse it rm the start, therebyistinguishing himsel rm the rest the el.36 Althugh his rmal reignplicy creentials were slim, he successully argue that his better jugementtrumpe his ppnents greater eperience.

The argument was signicant because, unlike eight years earlier, reign plicygure prminently in the 2008 presiential campaign, especially uring theDemcratic primaries. Ira was the banner issue. Mre than ne in three Ameri-

cans in the spring 2008 saw it as the mst imprtant issue acing the cuntry.37

Obama argue that by reusing t en the war in Ira Presient Bush is giving theterrrists what they really want a US ccupatin unetermine length, atunetermine cst, with unetermine cnseuences.38 Obamas plicy prescrip-tin was straightrwar: he wul withraw all US trps within 16 mnths his electin. But in keeping with his 2002 claim that he wasnt against all wars, justumb nes, he plege t sen mre US trps t Aghanistan, which he believethat the Bush aministratin ha unjustiably ignre.39

Obamas criticisms Bushs reign plicy i nt turn n the uestin gals r the prpriety an activist reign plicy. Obamas vw t prtect theAmerican peple an t epan pprtunity r the net generatin cul havebeen rawn rm the speech any US presient uring his lietime.40 An like

34 See e.g. BBC Wrl Service Pll, Israel an Iran share mst negative ratings in glbal pll, 6 March 2007,http://news.bbc.c.uk/2/share/bsp/hi/ps/06_03_07_perceptins.p, accesse 23 May 2011.

35 Quoted in Greg Bryane and Jane B. Vaughn, 300 attend rally against Iraq war, Chicago Daily Herald, 3 Oct. 2002.36 See James M. Linsay, Natinal security, the electral cnnectin, an plicy chice, in Martin A. Levin,

Daniel DiSalv an Martin Shapir, es, Getting past no rom Clinton to Bush to Obama (Baltimre, MD: JhnsHpkins University Press, 2011).

37 The Gallup poll: public opinion 2007 (Lanham, MD: Rwman & Littleel, 2008), p. 315.38 Barack Obama, The war we nee t win, Wrw Wilsn Center, 1 Aug. 2007, http://www.wilsncenter.

rg/events/cs/abgmasp0807.p, accesse 3 June 2011.39 Dan Balz, Obama says he wul take ght t Pakistan, Washington Post, 2 Aug. 2007.40 Obama, Renewing American leaership, p. 2.


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Bush, Obama was an internatinalist wh avure a rbust US rle verseas. Hewas nt a nn-interventinist calling r a retreat t Frtress America.

Obamas criticisms instea we rm a rejectin Bushs view hw the

wrl wrke. Where Bush implicitly enie the claim that glbalizatin wasremaking wrl plitics, Obama accepte it as a given. A glbalize wrl hacreate a multitue threats that crsse natinal brers. Terrrism was nlythe mst visible n a list that inclue nuclear prlieratin an climate change.American pwer, thugh vast, was insufcient t meet these challenges. InObamas wrs, America cannt meet the threats this century alne.41

Obama argue that the Unite States cul secure the partners it neee nlyi ther cuntries agree with where it was heae an hw. The Unite Statescul n lnger ar the Bush practice bullying ther cuntries t ratiychanges we hatch in islatin.42 Obama plege t abie by internatinal rulesn issues such as cercive interrgatin an t return iplmacy t the rernt

US plicy. He wul tackle issues like climate change an revive the IsraeliPalestinian peace prcess. His iplmatic push wul eten even t Americasenemies. T the cnsternatin his critics, an even sme his supprters,when aske uring the campaign whether he wul be willing t meet separately,withut precnitin with the leaers Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, anNrth Krea, in rer t brige the gap that ivies ur cuntries, he answereyes.43

Althugh Obama emphasize the imprtance wrking with rien an ealike, he insiste that he wul act militarily where it mae sense. Besies vwingt sen mre trps t Aghanistan, he insiste he wul use rne strikes an

Special Frces peratins t attack insie Pakistan. In 2007 he sai: I we haveactinable intelligence abut high-value terrrist targets an Presient Musharrawnt act, we will.44 Bth Demcrats an Republicans enunce the statement,with sme arguing that he ha suggeste invaing Pakistan.45

Obamas enthusiasm r military actin, hwever, stppe shrt humanitarianinterventin. He avure withrawing US trps rm Ira even i gencie wasccurring. Well, lk, he sai at ne campaign stp, i thats the criteria by whichwe are making ecisins n the eplyment US rces, then by that argumentyu wul have three hunre thusan trps in the Cng right nw, wheremillins have been slaughtere as a cnseuence ethnic strie, which we haventne. He ae, We wul be eplying unilaterally an ccupying the Suan,which we havent ne.46

41 Obama, Renewing American leaership, p. 4.42 Obama, Renewing American leaership, p. 11.43 See amng thers Jhn Heilemann an Mark Halperin, Game change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin,

and the race o a lietime (New Yrk: Harper, 2010), p. 111; Davi Plue, Audacity to win: the inside story and lessonso Barack Obamas historic victory (New Yrk: Viking, 2009), pp. 846; Matthew Yglesias, The acciental reignplicy, TheAtlantic, June 2008, pp. 2830.

44 Barack Obama, The war we nee t win.45 The ute is rm Sen. Jhn McCain (R-AZ). Fr a list similar criticisms, see Michael D. Shear, In

bin Laen annuncement, eches 2007 Obama speech, The Caucus, 2 May 2011, http://thecaucus.blgs.nytimes.cm/2011/05/02/in-bin-laen-annuncement-eches--2007-bama-speech/, accesse 23 May 2011.

46 Qute in Ryan Lizza, The cnseuentialist, New Yorker, 2 May 2011, p. 46.


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Obama similarly shie away rm embracing Gerge W. Bushs reemagena. In part, this reecte har-nse plitical calculatin; Ira ha maeemcracy prmtin tic t many Americans. But it als reecte his assess-

ment that emcracy prmtin ealte electins ver what he cnsiere thebuiling blcks emcracysecurity an ecnmic pprtunity. He nteprivately that Presient Franklin Rsevelts ame Fur Freems speech hant mentine electins at all.47 Minul FDRs cncern abut reem rmwant an ear, Obama prpse ubling the US reign ai buget.

Obamas reluctance t embrace humanitarian interventin an his clnesstwars emcracy prmtin spurre iscussin that he was a rare biraDemcratic reign plicy realist. Obamas wn cmments uelle the ebate.The truth is, he tl Pennsylvania vters, that my reign plicy is actually areturn t the traitinal bipartisan realistic plicy Gerge Bushs ather, JhnF. Kenney, , in sme ways, Rnal Reagan.48 But a mre accurate escriptin

hw Obama viewe reign plicy was pragmatism rather than realism. Hewante a strategy n lnger riven by ielgy an plitics but ne that is basen a realistic assessment the sbering acts n the grun an ur interests inthe regin.49 He vwe t assess each prblem n its merits, an then attempt tevise a slutin.

Obamas campaign visin r US reign plicy ecite peple bth at hme anverseas.50 Ehauste ater eight years Gerge W. Bush, they epecte that thene-term Senatr wul, t brrw a ppular verb, transrm American reignplicy. The caniate himsel smetimes gt caught up in the ptimism whathe wul . The ay Im inaugurate, the cuntry lks at itsel ierently.

An nt unerestimate that pwer. Dnt unerestimate that transrmatin.51

Expectations meet reality

Obama began his presiency by methically translating his campaign prmisesint ees.52 On his thir ay in fce, he rere the clsure the US etentinacility at Guantnam Bay, Cuba, within a year an an en t cercive inter-rgatins. In mi-February, he rere 17,000 US trps sent t Aghanistan, anincrease nearly 50 per cent ver the 36,000 US trps alreay there. 53 At theen February, he rere the withrawal all US cmbat trps rm Ira

47 James Traub, The reedom agenda: why America must spread democracy (just not the way George Bush did) (New Yrk:Farrar, Straus & Giru, 2008), p. 218.

48 Qute in Lizza, The cnseuentialist, p. 46.49 Qute in Lizza, The cnseuentialist, p. 46.50 On the high epectatins r Obama, see R. Nichlas Burns, The ascensin, The National Interest, Jan.Feb.

2009, pp. 5362.51 Qute in Paul Steinhauser, Obama: my presiency wul unleash a transrmatin, CNN.cm, 27

July 2007, http://articles.cnn.com/20070727/politics/obama.black.votes_1_afrmative-action-presidential-orum-bama?_s=PM:POLITICS, accesse 23 May 2011.

52 Fr a summary Obamas majr reign plicy ecisins uring his rst mnths in fce, see Jnathan Alter,The promise: President Obama, year one (New Yrk: Simn & Schuster, 2010), ch. 14.

53 Barack Obama, Presiential statement, White Huse, 17 Feb. 2009, http://www.whitehuse.gv/the_press_fce/Statement-by-the-Presient-n-Aghanistan/, accesse 23 May 2011.


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by August 2010 an all remaining US trps by December 2011.54 In March he

sent a vietape greeting t Iran in hnur the Iranian New Year, saying thatmy aministratin is nw cmmitte t iplmacy that aresses the ull range

issues bere us.55

In May, he tl Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thatIsrael ha t reeze all settlement cnstructin.56 In June, the US Huse passe

the cap-an-trae bill that Obama avure t reuce greenhuse gas emissins.57

Obama launche a slew iplmatic initiatives, mst ntably verturningBush plicy in sening US fcials t participate in internatinal talks with Iran

ver its nuclear prgramme. He travelle wiely t speak t reign auiences,visiting 21 cuntries in 2009 alnethe mst ambitius reign travel scheule any rst-year presient.58 In April, he prmise cheering crws in Prague

t seek the peace an security a wrl withut nuclear weapns.59 In June,he spke in Cair his esire t seek a new beginning between the UniteStates an Muslims arun the wrl.60 In September, he tl the UN GeneralAssembly that he was seeking, in wr an ee, a new era engagement with

the wrl.61Obamas embrace iplmacy mae him ppular abra an revive Ameri-

cas image arun the glbe.62 Epectatins what he wul accmplish sare.

He wn the 2009 Nbel Peace Prize. The prize cmmittee mentine n accm-plishments in its awar citatin; instea, it celebrate him r giving the wrlspeple hpe r a better uture with his iplmacy une in the cnceptthat thse wh are t lea the wrl must s n the basis values an attitues

that are share by the majrity the wrls ppulatin.63

Obamas rst 28 mnths in fce i pruce sme ntable accmplishments.

In June 2010, the UN Security Cuncil impse new sanctins n Iran in a bit curtail its buing nuclear prgramme.64 The mve was signicant nt just

54 Barack Obama, Remarks Presient Barack Obamaas prepare r elivery: respnsibly ening thewar in Ira, Camp Lejeune, Nrth Carlina, 27 Feb. 2009, http://www.whitehuse.gv/the_press_fce/Remarks--Presient-Barack-Obama-Respnsibly-Ening-the-War-in-Ira/, accesse 23 May 2011.

55 Qute in Obama etens Iran an live branch n vie tape, 20 March 2009, http://www.nytimes.cm/2009/03/20/wrl/mileeast/20iran.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

56 Glenn Kessler, Obama pushes Israel n settlement issue, Washington Post, 29 May 2009, http://www.washingtnpst.cm/wp-yn/cntent/article/2009/05/28/AR2009052803771.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

57 Jhn M. Brer, Huse passes bill t aress threat climate change, New York Times,26 June 2009, http://www.nytimes.cm/2009/06/27/us/plitics/27climate.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

58 Alter, The promise, p. 14.

59 Barack Obama, Remarks by Presient Barack Obama, Prague, 5 April 2009, http://www.whitehuse.gv/the_press_fce/Remarks-By-Presient-Barack-Obama-In-Prague-As-Delivere/, accesse 23 May 2011.

60 Barack Obama, Remarks by the Presient n a new beginning, Cair, 4 June 2009, http://www.whitehuse.gv/the-press-fce/remarks-presient-cair-university-60409, accesse 23 May 2001.

61 Barack Obama, Remarks by the president to the United Nations General Assembly,New York, 23 Sept. 2009,http://www.whitehuse.gv/the_press_fce/Remarks-by-the-Presient-t-the-Unite-Natins-General-Assembly/, accesse 23 May 2011.

62 Pew Research Center, Cnence in Obama lits US image arun the wrl; mst Muslim publics nt seasily mve, Pew Glbal Attitues Prject, 23 July 2009, http://pewglbal.rg/2009/07/23/cnence-in-bama-lits-us-image-arun-the-wrl/, accesse 23 May 2001.

63 Reuters, Tet Nbel Peace Prize citatin r Obama, 9 Oct. 2009, http://www.reuters.cm/article/2009/10/09/us-nbel-peace-citatin-tet-sb-iUSTRE5981RA20091009, accesse 23 May 2001.

64 Unite Natins Security Cuncil Reslutin 1929, 9 June 2010, http://access-s-ny.un.rg/c/UNDOC/GEN/N10/396/79/PDF/N1039679.p?OpenElement, accesse 23 May 2011.


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because it intensie pressure n Tehran but because it wn the supprt the tw

vet-wieling Security Cuncil members that ha previusly resiste sanctins,China an Russia. Russian supprt reecte the success Obamas ert t reset

relatins with Mscw.65

In September 2009, he revampe US missile eenceplicy, scrapping the lng-range missile eence system that Bush ha begun an

the Russians ppse in avur a system that relie n shrter-range intercep-trs that cause Mscw less alarm.66 That plicy change enable the signing aneventual raticatin the New START treaty as well as acilitating Mscws

cperatin in the passage materiel thrugh Central Asia t Aghanistan.In March 2011, Obama wrke with Britain an France t secure Chinese anRussian cperatin at the Security Cuncil nce again, this time t pass a reslu-

tin authrizing actin t prtect Libyan civilians against attacks by MuammarQahas rces.67

Obama succeee n several cre natinal security bjectives as well. US cmbattrps let Ira in August 2010 as prmise, an the withrawal the remaining

50,000 nn-cmbat trps was n scheule t be cmplete by the December2011 ealine.68 He uintuple the number strikes by arme rnes againstsuspecte terrrist hieuts in Pakistan an elsewhere.69 An mst ntably, in

May 2011 US Navy SEALS kille Osama bin Laen in a high-stakes rai in Abbt-taba, Pakistan, cnucte withut the knwlege the Pakistani gvernment.

Nnetheless, Obamas reign plicy ell shrt being transrmatinal interms making US reign plicy mre successul. Mst his signature initia-

tives either stalle r aile. Dmestic ppsitin eventually rce him t reversehis ecisin t clse the etentin acility at Guantnam.70 Israel reuse t

halt settlement cnstructin, an in late 2010 Obama rppe his eman. 71 Hesimilarly abanne his erts t establish a cap-an-trae system r greenhusegas emissins.72 Iranian leaers rebue his iplmatic vertures.73 Less than twmnths ater Obamas Prague speech, Nrth Krea cnucte its secn nuclear

65 See Samuel Charap, The transrmatin USRussia relatins, Current History, Oct. 2010, pp. 2817,http://www.americanprgress.rg/issues/2010/09/p/charap_us_russia_relatins.p, accesse 23 May 2011.

66 Peter Baker, White Huse scraps Bushs apprach t missile shiel, New York Times, 17 Sept. 2009, http://www.nytimes.cm/2009/09/18/wrl/eurpe/18shiel.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

67 Unite Natins Security Cuncil Reslutin 1973, 17 March 2011, http://access-s-ny.un.rg/c/UNDOC/GEN/N11/268/39/PDF/N1126839.p?OpenElement, accesse 23 May 2011.

68 Ernest Ln, Operatin Irai Freem ens as last cmbat sliers leave Bagha, Washington Post,19

Aug. 2010, http://www.washingtnpst.cm/wp-yn/cntent/article/2010/08/18/AR2010081805644.html,accesse 23 May 2011.

69 Data n US rne strikes can be un at the New America Funatin, Year the rne, http://cunterterrrism.newamerica.net/rnes, accesse 23 May 2011.

70 Sctt Shane an Mark Lanler, Obama clears way r Guantnam trials, New York Times, 7 March 2001,http://www.nytimes.cm/2011/03/08/wrl/americas/08guantanam.html?_r=1&scp=2&s=sctt%20shane&st=cse, accesse 23 may 2011.

71 Mark Lanler, Clintn says US is cmmitte t Mieast peace but reverting t l strategy, New York Times,10 Dec. 2010, http://www.nytimes.cm/2010/12/11/wrl/mileeast/11ipl.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

72 Dan Mrgan, US shelves cap an trae, Eurpean Institute, Feb. 2011, http://www.eurpeaninstitute.rg/February-2011/us-shelves-cap-an-trae-plicy-shit-an-cngressinal-ppsitin-sink-eu-style-climate-echange-market-in-us.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

73 Thmas Erbrink, Irans supreme leaer rebus Obama, Washington Post, 22 March 2009, http://www.washingtnpst.cm/wp-yn/cntent/article/2009/03/21/AR2009032100217.html, accesse 23 May 2011.


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test. Beijing aile t reciprcate his cnciliatry gestures, an by late 2010 he haapte a mre assertive psture twars China.74

Obamas erts t stabilize Aghanistan rew the Unite States int a eeper

cmmitment than he ha anticipate. His February 2009 trp increase ailet turn the tie against the Taleban as he hpe. Despite eplicit aministratinguiance t senir military fcials that he i nt wish t hear reuests r mretrps r at least a year, the cmmaning US general privately warne in August2009 missin ailure i substantially mre trps were nt sent an the strategychange.75 The reprt uickly leake, creating an uprar. Obama launche a reshreview Aghanistan plicy that culminate in a ecisin t ispatch 30,000mre trps, with the aim beginning t withraw them by July 2011.76 As thatealine apprache, military cnitins ha imprve but the plitical situatinin Aghanistan remaine perilus.77

The limits to change

Obamas ailure t transrm American reign plicy ha several rts. One wasthe sheer number an cmpleity the prblems he inherite. Tpping the listwas the nancial crisis. Obama spent much his rst si mnths in fce wrkingt prevent the cllapse the US ecnmy an with it the internatinal nan-cial system. The purely reign plicy challenges he aceMile East peace,climate change an nuclear prlieratin, t name a ewwere messy, perhapsintractable, prblems that were nt amenable t unilateral American slutins rperhaps even multilateral nes. An events were nt kin t Obama. Whether it

was the green mvement in Iran r the Arab Spring, his reign plicy challengesmultiplie rather than shrank. An while these crises may have given Obamapprtunities, the epensive US cmmitments in Ira an Aghanistan an theUS gvernments ismal scal psitin limite his pssible respnses.

Dmestic plitics i Obama n avurs, either. Althugh Demcrats initiallycntrlle bth Huse an Senate, the latters peculiar rules enable the Repub-lican minrity t elay i nt blck utright reign plicy initiatives such ascap-an-trae legislatin that reuire cngressinal cnsent. Obama wn Senateapprval the New START treaty, but nly ater a bruising plitical battle thatcnsume the White Huses attentin r several mnths. The lessn was clear:passing reign plicy legislatin wul reuire intense cmmitments scarce

time an energy.

74 See Helene Cper, Fr Chinese leaers visit, US t take bler tack, New York Times, 17 Jan. 2011, http://www.nytimes.cm/2011/01/18/wrl/asia/18plicy.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

75 On the guiance t senir military fcials nt t reuest mre trps r Aghanistan, see Bb Wwar,Obamas wars (New Yrk: Simn & Schuster, 2010), pp. 1234. On the cmmaning generals assessment, seeStanley A. McChrystal, Cmmaners initial assessment, 30 Aug. 2009, http://meia.washingtnpst.cm/wp-srv/plitics/cuments/Assessment_Reacte_092109.p, accesse 23 May 2011.

76 The particulars the Aghan strategy review are etensively cumente in Wwar, Obamas wars, esp.chs 1328.

77 Thm Shanker, Pentagn war reprt cites prgress by trps, New York Times,29 April 2011, http://www.nytimes.cm/2011/04/30/wrl/asia/30military.html?_r=1&scp=1&s=aghanistan%20prgress&st=cse,accesse 23 May 2011.


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Obamas wn missteps hampere his cause. The numerus special envys heappinte create cnusin abut wh was in charge which plicy, an hisrst Natinal Security Avisr, General James Jnes, struggle in the psitin.78

Obama aile t anticipate that his eman r a halt t Israeli settlement activitywul strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus psitin at hme.Obamas slw respnse t the 12 June prtest mvement in Iran energize his criticsan ismaye his supprters. His cnciliatry gestures twars China embleneBeijing rather than tame it. He neglecte relatins with emerging emcraticpwers such as Brazil, Inia an Innesia uring his rst year in fce, an histen inept hanling persnal relatins with reign leaers alternately annyean alarme even clse allies.79

But Obamas reign plicy strategy suere rm a mre unamental prblem:it reste n an verly ptimistic premise. He ha assume that i the Unite Statesmerate its tne, reache ut t reign capitals, stresse cmmn interests an

then ecie t lea, thers wul llw. Bush ha aile, n this assessment, nts much because issues were cmplicate, r cuntries isagree ver what t an hw t it, r because reign capitals ha ierent pririties, but becausehe ha le baly. Obama wul instea reclaim the iplmatic mantle FranklinRsevelt, Harry Truman an Jhn Kenney.

Obama, hwever, ha becme presient in an entirely ierent gepliticalcntet rm any these presiential preecessrs. N cuntry was playing therle the Sviet Unin, spurring cuntries t put asie ierences t rally arunthe Unite States. Rapi ecnmic grwth in emerging markets ha shite thebalance glbal ecnmic pwer an create new crss-natinal netwrks bth

within an between regins that bypasse the Unite States.80

The 20082009nancial crisis urther weakene the US ability t lea, its ecnmic wes beinginterprete bth abra an at hme as evience its ecline.81

Nne this was a surprise r Obama. He ha spken ten n the campaigntrail abut hw glbalizatin was remaking the wrl. But he ha nt llwehis analysis glbal trens t its lgical cnclusin. A wrl in which pwerwas mre isperse an new crss-natinal netwrks ha evelpe wul be awrl that was harer t lea. Rather than hungering r US leaership, manycuntries were inierent t it. They i nt see Washingtn ering slutinsthat aresse their primary cncerns. S they pursue their interests elsewhere.82At times, even traitinal riens an allies as well as rising pwers cnteste

78 See amng thers, Alter, The promise, p. 75.79 See Rbert Kagan, Allies everywhere eeling snubbe by Presient Obama, Washington Post,17 March 2010,

http://www.washingtnpst.cm/wp-yn/cntent/article/2010/03/16/AR2010031603322.html, accesse 23May 2011.

80 See e.g. Evan A. Feigenbaum, Why America n lnger gets Asia, Washington Quarterly 34: 2, Spring 2011, pp.2543, http://tw.cm/11spring/cs/11spring_Feigenbaum.p, accesse 3 June 2011.

81 See amng thers, Gien Rachman, Think again: American ecline, Foreign Policy, Jan.Feb. 2011, http://www.reignplicy.cm/articles/2011/01/02/think_again_american_ecline, accesse 23 May 2011.

82 In the case Asia, see Evan A. Feigenbaum an Rbert Manning, The United States in a new Asia (NewYrk: Cuncil n Freign Relatins, 2009), http://www.cr.rg/asia/unite-states-new-asia/p20446, accesse3 June 2011. In the case Latin America, see Julia E. Sweig, A new glbal player: Brazils ar-ung agena,Foreign Afairs 89: 6, Nv.Dec. 2010, pp. 17384.


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American leaership.83 China sught t recngure the balance pwer in Asiaan remake the glbal nancial architecture n a pattern mre t its liking. Brazilan Turkey trie t brker a eal with Iran ver its nuclear weapns prgramme.

Inia saw itsel as the minant pwer rm Aen t the Strait Malacca, nt asa junir partner t Washingtn. Recnciling these cmpeting ambitins, interestsan pririties was a aunting, perhaps Sisyphean, task.

Obama acknwlege the prblem early in his presiency. I theres justRsevelt an Churchill sitting in a rm with a brany, thats an easier negtia-tin, he nte. But thats nt the wrl we live in.84 He calculate that i theUnite States listene mre an stresse cmmn interests at the margins, they[ther cuntries] are mre likely t want t cperate than nt cperate.85 Thiswas what ne plitically tne-ea Obama aviser calle leaing rm behin.86But the key uestin let unaske an unanswere was whether more cperatinwul translate int enough cperatin. As a result, Obama ecline t ajust hisreign plicy gals, an struggle t evise a strategy r avancing US interestsin a wrl where ther pwers, large an small, were busy prtecting their wn.He staye n curse, laying wn markers an rawing lines, nly t see many them ignre.87

Succeeding in a globalized world

September 11 reene US reign plicy. Gerge W. Bush believe that theattacks prvie a new rientating principle r US reign plicy an manatean aggressive US respnse. In ghting the war n terrrism he sught t remake

the glbal lanscape in a rm mre cnucive t American security. But ghtingterrrism prve ar t narrw a cus r US plicy. The Unite States simplyha t many ther interests beyn its brers. Bushs war n terrr ultimatelyshwe the limits American pwer an sale his successr with a rat messy reign plicy prblems.

Obama unerst that glbalizatin ha remae the geplitical terrain. Pwerha been isperse nt just acrss a wier array cuntries, but t nn-stateactrs as well. The ays when the Unite States cul impse slutins, i theyha ever eiste, i s n lnger. Navigating this mre cmple wrl reuirelistening t thers an giving them a stake in uphling the internatinal rer.88

83 See amng thers Steven A. Ck, Hw yu say renemy in Turkish?, Freignplicy.cm, 1 June 2010,http://www.reignplicy.cm/articles/2010/06/01/hw__yu_say_renemy_in_Turkish, accesse 3 June2011; Stewart Patrick, Irrespnsible stakehlers? The ifculty integrating rising pwers, Foreign Afairs89: 6, Nv.Dec. 2010, pp. 4453.

84 Qute in Helene Cper, On the wrl stage, Obama issues an verture, New York Times, 2 April 2009,http://www.nytimes.cm/2009/04/03/wrl/eurpe/03assess.html?re=us, accesse 23 May 2011.

85 Presient Barack Obama, Press cnerence by Presient Obama in Prt Spain, White Huse, 19 April 2009,http://archives.uruguay.usembassy.gv/usaweb/2009/09139aEN.shtml, accesse 3 June 2011.

86 Qute in Lizza, The cnseuentialist, p. 55.87 See e.g. Steven Lee Myers, Israeli leaer rebus Obama n 67 brers, New York Times, 21 May 2011,

http://www.nytimes.cm/2011/05/21/wrl/mileeast/21prey.html?re=wrl; Liz Sly, At least 32 killeas Syrian trps pen re, Washington Post, 21 May 2011, http://www.washingtnpst.cm/wrl/syrian-trps-re-n-prtesters-at-least-3-ea/2011/05/20/AF4hUj7G_stry.html, bth accesse 23 May 2011.

88 Obama, Renewing American leaership, p. 11.


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What Obama stumble ver was nt the iagnsis but the prescriptin: even iWashingtn le wisely an sympathetically, thers might nt llw. Cnsulta-tins cul nt guarantee cnsensus. Gvernments cul an i isagree ver

which issues cnstitute threats r pprtunities, what pririty they shul begiven, hw they shul be hanle an wh shul bear the respnsibility raressing them. The result t ten was inactin r grilck.

Obamas challenge is ne his successrs are likely t cnrnt as well: hw tprmte US interests in a wrl that ten will nt autmatically respn t USleaership even as the Unite States remains the single mst pwerul an inu-ential cuntry. That may reuire new strategiesr, just as likely, a narrwerenitin US gals verseas an har chices amng pririties. That searchwill be painul. Much the wrl epects US leaership even when it bristlesat it. Obamas ert t shit the buren ghting in Libya nt ther NATOcuntries unere because they were neither accustme t leaing nr neces-

sarily capable it.Obamas task will be perhaps even mre aunting at hme. Cuntries, like

peple, live in the past, hailing l triumphs an ignring the march events.Dmestic grups will resist change even as the US gvernments scal wes createintense plitical pressures t scale back its cmmitments verseas.89 Prpsals trethink l plicies will be met with renewe claims that Obama es nt believein American eceptinalism.90 But unless Obama ns a way t align his reignplicy prescriptins with evlving glbal trens, the gap between Americanaspiratins an accmplishments will grw, an the prspects r successul USglbal leaership will im urther.

89 See Rger C. Altman an Richar N. Haass, American prigacy an American pwer, Foreign Afairs 81: 6,Nv.Dec. 2010, pp. 2534.

90 Karen Tumulty, An l iea an a new plitical battle, Washington Post, 29 Nv. 2010, http://www.washingtnpst.cm/wp-yn/cntent/article/2010/11/28/AR2010112804139.html, accesse 23 May 2011.

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