1. Future of Auto Industry and Retail!Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

2. Morethanonestrategyforautoandretail!!!!!!!!! 3. 4 4. Top Global Auto Brands - Interbrand 5. !One word willdominate ALLFUTURE ! 6. The future is aboutEMOTION 7. !!!Understandingwhatreallyma5erstoeachcustomer,howtheyfeel,becominganexpertfriend 8. 11 9. Whyneedtolookbeyondmarketresearch 10. !Europe Older!4 couples toproduce singlegreat-grandchild!1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time! 11. Title Text Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five 12. 300 million move to cities in China475 million to cities in Africa by 2030!!!!!!!!!! 13. Numberofvehiclesper100people 14. Global car sales 107m by 2020!!up from 80m in 2013!!Europe / Japan - flat!America - recovered!!China - 19m to 31m in 7 years !- mainly foreign brands 15. 4BmesasmanycarsonearthifwholeworldhassameownershipasAmerica 16. Limitstocarownership? 17. NOX emissions 18. Global Manufacturing!SCALE!!Tata Group owns Jaguar in UK!Russia will be largest car maker in Europe!New factories in Turkey, Indonesia, Africa, Brazil 19. VW mega platform VWMegaPlaHorm-basisfor1mcars 20. Longer and shorter global supply chains Body Level One Body Level Two Body Level Three Body Level Four Body Level Five 21. NearshoringBoom 22. !ManufacturinginMexicowillgrowforUSmarket 23. Lighter vehicles !!New Range Rovers are 40% lighter !Plastics!Carbon fibre!Less steel 24. NanotechCoaBngs 25. Laser Headlights!500 metres distance - Audi, BMW 26. 36External Air Bags !!Volvo in V40 hatchback , Mercedes Benz, TRW 27. >30%energysavingswithgreentech 28. Auto Fuel of the Future ?! 29. 30% US grain burnt in cars25% of 2010 US grain fuel30 million acres lost!EU 5% gasoline and dieselfrom food 30. Shale gas 33% !US supplies!!!200 years global supply!Up from 60 years in 5 years 31. LPG-hugegrowthinIndia 32. !HydrogenGimmickorReality 33. Hydrogen Cars Arriving !!Toyota, Hyundai, Honda (60% denser energypack with 33% size reduction in 7 years) 34. Problemswithsupply,storage,milesperkgofgas 35. FutureofHybridCars 36. VW latest hybrid emits only21g per km - XLJ 37. Whypayfortwoengines? 38. GMVolt-Ba5eryLifeAveragedriverusesba5ery82%ofBmeevenwithrangeofonly38miles 39. UStotalsalese-vehiclesHybridsandAll-ElectricDec2010-June2014 40. Electric car sales off-target !!Germany: 1 million by 2020!Nissan Leaf: selling 20,000 a year, butfactory capacity for 150,000 a year!! 41. >20,000 a year - out of $42m factory! 42. e-carFormulaRacing 43. Be5erBa5eries 44. How green are electric cars ?!!France: 8g CO2 / km (mainly nuclear) !!India: >120g C02 / km (mainly coal)!!Future: 0g CO2 / km (focussed light) 45. Park under light focussed - FordSolar Power 46. BodyDesignOpBonsVeryLimitedinFuture 47. Everywindtunneldoesthesame 48. Cardesignlimitedbyhumananatomy 49. LimitstoCockpitDesign 50. Driver Assist !!Auto parking!Safe distance on highways!Autobraking!Read speed signs!Detect sleepy driver 51. Auto Parking!Ford, Audi, Volvo, Honda 52. Predict Driver Mood !!Car learns about the daily schools run - route,usual radio station, cabin temperature - and sochecks the route, traffic each day Mercedes!!Switch hybrid to battery only when usualjourney close to home Ford 53. Drowsy, Drunk, Distracted!!Alcohol in sweat on gear leaver / erratic driving Nissan !LED detection of closed eyes University of Leicester!Head not facing road Audi!Detection heart problem (ECG from steering wheel)Nippon Medical School 54. Boominconnectedcarsales 55. AllnewGMcarsinUS/Candawith4GGM 4G 56. Auto Infotainment!!Chevrolet MyLink: Apps such as Glimpse, i!Heart RadioHyundai!Volvo SensoConnected: history etc on whatyou are driving past, WiFi hotspot!Google and Apple plug in compatibility!Car to i-watch data eg parking location 57. Lower Insurance Costs !!Insurer learns about how brake and acceleratorare used, cornering speeds etc, time of day -linked to premiums for younger drivers 58. Vehicletrainssave30%offuel 59. Networked-Joinedtogether 60. Vehicle to Vehicle Data !!National Highway Traffic Safety Administrationrequirement for vehicle to vehiclecommunication by ? 2017 to prevent accidents- warnings, automatic braking etc 61. Carswithnodrivers 62. Over700,000kmsdriven 63. legalliabilityinaccidents? 64. Who owns the driver ? !Manufacturers - telcos - breakdowncompanies - dealer network -independent garages - leasingcompany - software provider - insurer! 65. FutureofAutoDealersManufacturerswillfightforcontrol 66. Expectnewpa5ernsofcarownership 67. Milesdrivenby20-30yearoldsdown8%in20yearsacrossAmerica(30%downin10yearsinUK) 68. Fewercarsareownedbydrivers 69. Rentbyhour-instantly 70. FutureofRetailinamobileworld 71. InmanyEUnaBons,upto70%ofretailspendingisin$100bn pa!60% own a smartphone = 83% of 18-29 year oldse-commerce $434bn by 2017 - mostly on mobiles30% all e-commerce already on tablet / smartphone 83. UK RetailE-commerce 12% of retail sales in UKMost online sales are using mobile 84. 1trillionpagesamonth! 85. LocaBonMarkeBng!!!!isnextBIGTHING 86. Over4000roadhauliersinEU1.3bnhomedeliverede-comitemsinUKayear(+12%pa) 87. 1223000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 monthsChosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries 88. !Radical impactof mobile onretail banks 89. !1.7bnmobileusers-nobankaccountKenya-17mcustomersusemPesa$9bnpa->33%GDP 90. TelcoBanksFree mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model201020132015 91. Whatdoesitallmeanforautosales? 92. Carsaleswillgrowfastonline/mobileApps 93. 129 94. 130 95. ExpectmanyinnovaBonsinconsumerfinanceatpointofsale-inanincreasinglymobile-dominatedworld 96. !Expectpre-approvedfinanceanddealofferstomobiles 97. 90% all global datagenerated inlast 2 yearsBig Data 98. !Big Data allows shiftfrom Mass Marketing toPersonal Advice alongthe journey of life! 99. Would recommendyou to a friend ?! 100. Future of Auto Industryand Retail is all aboutcustomer experience, insight,relationship, speed and price -in an increasingly mobile world!Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd