future marketing and consuming values
TRANSCRIPT
Future marketing and consuming ValuesBar-Ilan University, Israel
www.passig.com
GenerationsGenerations’’ ModelModel
Future Time FramesFuture Time Frames
Immediate range: 0-2
Short range: 2-5
Mid range: 5-30
Long range: 30-50
Very long range: 50-100
Life Cycles Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of almost AnythingForecasting the Rise and Fall of almost Anything
Modis, T. (1994) Life Cycles. The Futurist. Sept-Oct 1994. pp 20-25
Cycles MagazineCycles Magazine Foundation for the study of CyclesFoundation for the study of Cycles
http://cyclesmagazine.org
2nd Curve: Seamless stitching
A w
ar en
es s
Basic Research
Press conference
Decline
Disappointment
Time1 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 20 22 25 30
1st Curve: Traditional cutting & stitching
WhatWhat’’s a generation for market analysis?s a generation for market analysis?
•• For quite a time, For quite a time, humankind have struggled humankind have struggled in defining in defining ““a generationa generation””
•• In the course of history a In the course of history a variety of models have variety of models have been developed to been developed to describe a variety of describe a variety of intersections in lifeintersections in life--cyclecycle
Family LineageFamily Lineage The Western model for describing the median dispersal of generatThe Western model for describing the median dispersal of generationsions
A snapshot of a living generation A snapshot of a living generation relative to their children & parentsrelative to their children & parents1st Gen
B irt
2nd Gen
3rd Gen
4th Gen
Greven, Philip J. (1970) Four Generations: Population, Land and Family in Colonial Andover. MA.
Social LineageSocial Lineage CohortCohort –– dispersal according to social roledispersal according to social role
•• TheThe cohortcohort concept assumes that lifeconcept assumes that life--cycle consists of cycle consists of four stagesfour stages in which we are to fulfill predefined social roles.in which we are to fulfill predefined social roles.
1.1. EldersElders (66(66--87)87) Main role: Main role: StewardshipStewardship (supervisors, thinkers, wisdom and resources routers)(supervisors, thinkers, wisdom and resources routers)
2.2. Middle adultsMiddle adults ))4444--6565(( Main role:Main role: LeadershipLeadership (Law makers, parents, teachers, managers) (Law makers, parents, teachers, managers)
3.3. Rising adultsRising adults ) ) 2222--4343(( Main role:Main role: ActivistsActivists (Workers, family raisers, institutes servants, value (Workers, family raisers, institutes servants, value inspectors)inspectors)
4.4. Youth Youth ) ) 00--2121(( Main role:Main role: DependantsDependants (Maturing, students, assimilating values, (Maturing, students, assimilating values, beware of dangers)beware of dangers)
Four seasons of cohort generationsFour seasons of cohort generations
The Silent GenThe Silent Gen
The Me GenThe Me Gen
The X GenThe X Gen
The Millennial GenThe Millennial Gen
Family values of the Family values of the MillennialsMillennials
• The Me generation are raised in families that start to dysfunction but still considered calm.
• The X generation are raised in dysfunctional families that don’t support their children.
• The Millennials will be raised in families that value family cells which protect and care immensely for their children.
• The Millennials will grow to be self-confident and will overturn negative trends in violence, forbidden relationships, etc.
• Demographically, in industrial societies, they will be considered as critical masses and will hold immense economic power.
www.millennialsrising.com
More educatedMore educated
Team workers, collaborators, ready to sacrificeTeam workers, collaborators, ready to sacrifice
Tolerant to other minorities and ethnic groupsTolerant to other minorities and ethnic groups
SelfSelf--confident who believe in future tech confident who believe in future tech
Economic values characterizing the Economic values characterizing the Millennial generationMillennial generation
Enhanced Future Time SpanEnhanced Future Time Span
Generators of innovative industriesGenerators of innovative industries
Stress ecological values Stress ecological values
Personal and public investments in Personal and public investments in environmental economyenvironmental economy
Develop new indices to measure Develop new indices to measure environmental issuesenvironmental issues Tend to pick unusual careers and professionsTend to pick unusual careers and professions
MillennialsMillennials’’ nicknamesnicknames
Generation Next (Generation Next (NextersNexters) )
Future marketing valuesFuture marketing values
They tend to repair wrong doing and injusticeThey tend to repair wrong doing and injustice
They are motivated by feelings of guiltThey are motivated by feelings of guilt
They detest commercialismThey detest commercialism
They constantly Look for opportunities to hurt big They constantly Look for opportunities to hurt big corporationscorporations
They are fond of religion, therefore would They are fond of religion, therefore would look or spiritual productslook or spiritual products
They tend to be hypochondriacs, therefore They tend to be hypochondriacs, therefore would look for enhanced hygienic productswould look for enhanced hygienic products
Churning dataChurning data
Deutsche Bank data regarding the rate of churning 3rd generation cellular phones (2001-2007)
ContactContact
Dr. David Passig, Futurist, Bar Ilan U. Head Grad Program of Info & Communication Tech
www.passig.com
[email protected]
Outline
Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of almost Anything
Cycles MagazineFoundation for the study of Cycles
S - Model for Forecasting Technologies
What’s a generation for market analysis?
Family Lineage The Western model for describing the median dispersal of generations
Social Lineage Cohort – dispersal according to social role
Four seasons of cohort generations
Family values of the Millennials
Millennials’ personal characteristics
Millennials’ nicknames
GenerationsGenerations’’ ModelModel
Future Time FramesFuture Time Frames
Immediate range: 0-2
Short range: 2-5
Mid range: 5-30
Long range: 30-50
Very long range: 50-100
Life Cycles Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of almost AnythingForecasting the Rise and Fall of almost Anything
Modis, T. (1994) Life Cycles. The Futurist. Sept-Oct 1994. pp 20-25
Cycles MagazineCycles Magazine Foundation for the study of CyclesFoundation for the study of Cycles
http://cyclesmagazine.org
2nd Curve: Seamless stitching
A w
ar en
es s
Basic Research
Press conference
Decline
Disappointment
Time1 2 4 6 8 10 11 12 20 22 25 30
1st Curve: Traditional cutting & stitching
WhatWhat’’s a generation for market analysis?s a generation for market analysis?
•• For quite a time, For quite a time, humankind have struggled humankind have struggled in defining in defining ““a generationa generation””
•• In the course of history a In the course of history a variety of models have variety of models have been developed to been developed to describe a variety of describe a variety of intersections in lifeintersections in life--cyclecycle
Family LineageFamily Lineage The Western model for describing the median dispersal of generatThe Western model for describing the median dispersal of generationsions
A snapshot of a living generation A snapshot of a living generation relative to their children & parentsrelative to their children & parents1st Gen
B irt
2nd Gen
3rd Gen
4th Gen
Greven, Philip J. (1970) Four Generations: Population, Land and Family in Colonial Andover. MA.
Social LineageSocial Lineage CohortCohort –– dispersal according to social roledispersal according to social role
•• TheThe cohortcohort concept assumes that lifeconcept assumes that life--cycle consists of cycle consists of four stagesfour stages in which we are to fulfill predefined social roles.in which we are to fulfill predefined social roles.
1.1. EldersElders (66(66--87)87) Main role: Main role: StewardshipStewardship (supervisors, thinkers, wisdom and resources routers)(supervisors, thinkers, wisdom and resources routers)
2.2. Middle adultsMiddle adults ))4444--6565(( Main role:Main role: LeadershipLeadership (Law makers, parents, teachers, managers) (Law makers, parents, teachers, managers)
3.3. Rising adultsRising adults ) ) 2222--4343(( Main role:Main role: ActivistsActivists (Workers, family raisers, institutes servants, value (Workers, family raisers, institutes servants, value inspectors)inspectors)
4.4. Youth Youth ) ) 00--2121(( Main role:Main role: DependantsDependants (Maturing, students, assimilating values, (Maturing, students, assimilating values, beware of dangers)beware of dangers)
Four seasons of cohort generationsFour seasons of cohort generations
The Silent GenThe Silent Gen
The Me GenThe Me Gen
The X GenThe X Gen
The Millennial GenThe Millennial Gen
Family values of the Family values of the MillennialsMillennials
• The Me generation are raised in families that start to dysfunction but still considered calm.
• The X generation are raised in dysfunctional families that don’t support their children.
• The Millennials will be raised in families that value family cells which protect and care immensely for their children.
• The Millennials will grow to be self-confident and will overturn negative trends in violence, forbidden relationships, etc.
• Demographically, in industrial societies, they will be considered as critical masses and will hold immense economic power.
www.millennialsrising.com
More educatedMore educated
Team workers, collaborators, ready to sacrificeTeam workers, collaborators, ready to sacrifice
Tolerant to other minorities and ethnic groupsTolerant to other minorities and ethnic groups
SelfSelf--confident who believe in future tech confident who believe in future tech
Economic values characterizing the Economic values characterizing the Millennial generationMillennial generation
Enhanced Future Time SpanEnhanced Future Time Span
Generators of innovative industriesGenerators of innovative industries
Stress ecological values Stress ecological values
Personal and public investments in Personal and public investments in environmental economyenvironmental economy
Develop new indices to measure Develop new indices to measure environmental issuesenvironmental issues Tend to pick unusual careers and professionsTend to pick unusual careers and professions
MillennialsMillennials’’ nicknamesnicknames
Generation Next (Generation Next (NextersNexters) )
Future marketing valuesFuture marketing values
They tend to repair wrong doing and injusticeThey tend to repair wrong doing and injustice
They are motivated by feelings of guiltThey are motivated by feelings of guilt
They detest commercialismThey detest commercialism
They constantly Look for opportunities to hurt big They constantly Look for opportunities to hurt big corporationscorporations
They are fond of religion, therefore would They are fond of religion, therefore would look or spiritual productslook or spiritual products
They tend to be hypochondriacs, therefore They tend to be hypochondriacs, therefore would look for enhanced hygienic productswould look for enhanced hygienic products
Churning dataChurning data
Deutsche Bank data regarding the rate of churning 3rd generation cellular phones (2001-2007)
ContactContact
Dr. David Passig, Futurist, Bar Ilan U. Head Grad Program of Info & Communication Tech
www.passig.com
[email protected]
Outline
Life Cycles Forecasting the Rise and Fall of almost Anything
Cycles MagazineFoundation for the study of Cycles
S - Model for Forecasting Technologies
What’s a generation for market analysis?
Family Lineage The Western model for describing the median dispersal of generations
Social Lineage Cohort – dispersal according to social role
Four seasons of cohort generations
Family values of the Millennials
Millennials’ personal characteristics
Millennials’ nicknames