future fact the big 5 the social forces shaping south africa
TRANSCRIPT
futurefact
futurefact
The B
ig 5
The Social Forces Shaping South Africa
futurefact
futurefact
Source: The futurefact survey
South Africa is a rapidly changing society and having an in depth understanding of the significant psycho-social, political
and economic trends is critical to any organisation that is planning for the future.
futurefact has been surveying the attitudes, values and beliefs of South Africans and their media consumption since 1998
using questionnaires based on the relevant issues of the time and reference to opinion leaders and experts in various fields.
It is at the nexus of psychographics and media and is a unique source for interrogating the critical drivers for successful
positioning, marketing and communication initiatives.
futurefact
futurefact
The futurefact survey
The 2011 survey:
Fieldwork period: March/April 2011
Sample: 2524 adults aged 15 plus; national probability sample excluding deep rural (communities of fewer than 500 people) representing 20.2 million people.
The 2012 survey has just come out of field and will be available in May 2012.
futurefact is funded by subscriptions to the survey.
futurefact
futurefact
The B
ig 5
Th
e S
oci
al Fo
rces
Sh
ap
ing
Sou
th A
fric
a
4. Social Inclusion
2. Class Mobility
5. Digital World
1. Political Risk & Stability 3.
Sustainability
futurefact
futurefact
FORCE #1: Political Risk & Stability
futurefact
futurefact
Political risk and stability are
critical drivers of FDI and citizens’
confidence in South Africa
futurefact
futurefact
Democratic beliefs
61% 53%
Source: futurefact 2011
Applies strongly or on the whole
futurefact
futurefact
Political attitudes and beliefs: Agree
67% 63% 63%
33%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Support for ANC
Strong supporter
Wavering supporter
Potential new supporter
Not a supporter
Don't Know
39%
20%
5%
32%
5%
40%
16%
6%
32%
7%
2008 2011
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Support for DA
Strong supporter
Wavering supporter
Potential new supporter
Not a supporter
Don't Know
14% 14%
8%
58%
6%
17%
10%8%
58%
8%
2008 2011
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Complete confidence in key political figures
Zwelinzima Vavi
Julius Malema
Gill Marcus
Cyril Ramaphosa
Tokyo Sexwale
Helen Zille
Pravin Gordhan
Kgalema Motlanthe
Trevor Manuel
Jacob Zuma
10%
12%
12%
14%
16%
19%
22%
24%
29%
35%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Corruption in South
Africa
futurefact
futurefact
Corruption: Completely agree/agree
80% 77% 74%61%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Most municipalities and local councils are corrupt and untrustworthy: Agree
2000 2006 2008 2009
56%
69% 70%76%
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
To what extent do you believe that it is your personal responsibility to:
Refuse to pay bribes under any circumstances
To some
/ large ex-tent82%
Not my re-
sponsibil-ity
13%
Not sure5%
Prof William Gumede: Graduate School of Public & Development Management, Wits
“If a political leader can get away with wrongdoing, how on earth should one expect the local metro policeman not to take a bribe?”
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Paid a bribe
8% of the population acknowledge that they have paid a bribe in the past 12 months.
This was to either get off a minor offence like a speeding ticket, a major offence like drunken driving, or paid someone to get a job, house or contract.
8% translates to 1,583 million bribes that took place within the past year. (This of course is in all likelihood an underestimate as many respondents would not necessarily have been honest).
However for the sake of argument lets say this is the finite number of bribes and that each bribe averaged R100. That translates to R158 million changing hands for bribes....
Corruption is clearly a multi million rand business, fuelled by SA citizens.
futurefact
futurefact
Quiet corruption
‘Quiet’ corruption occurs when public servants deliberately neglect their duties to provide public services or goods.
‘Quiet corruption’ may not involve an exchange of money, but involves providers of public services such as teachers, nurses or other officials bending the rules for their own private interests.
This includes, for example, public servants not turning up for work when they should.
‘Big-time’ corruption that takes place without consequences invariably encourages ‘quiet’ corruption.
Both types of corruption impact heavily on the quality of life of citizens.
futurefact
futurefact
Cancer of corruption
South Africa slipped down in Transparency International’s 2010 Corruption Perception Index. According to the Index, an international survey of public corruption, South Africa ranked 54 out of 178 countries listed.
Primedia’s Yusuf Abramjee (open letter to the President, October
2011):“With respect, Mr. President, you and
your administration … are creating the perception that you condone
maladministration, corruption and inefficiency”
futurefact
futurefact
Crime in South Africa
futurefact
futurefact
Victim of crime in past 12 months
Victim of theft Victim of violent crime
21%
12%14%
6%
2008 2011
%
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Victim of crime in past 12 months
Tota
l victim
of a
ny crim
e
Vict
im o
f the
ft
Vict
im o
f violent
crim
e
Vict
im o
f an
email/
sms sc
am
Vict
im o
f an
ATM sca
m
22%
14%
6% 7%4%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Of those who were a victim of crime – what percentage reported the crime to the police?
Reported theft to police Reported violent crime to police
71%
85%
63%73%
2008 2011
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Crime
Despite decreases in crime rate, fewer people who have been victims of crime reported the incident to the police.
7 out of 10 people believe that it is likely that people in South Africa commit crime as they are not likely to get caught.
Three quarters of the population believe that neighbourhoods should have the right to fence off their communities.
There has also been a decrease in confidence and trust levels for the SAPS.
It may well be that community initiatives are being credited for the decrease in crime rather than the police themselves. I’m afraid & alert all the time in ca...
77%71%
2008 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Who is seriously thinking of leaving South Africa to live or work in another country?
14%
22%
14%
11%
7%
13%12%
11%
16%
7%
12%13%
18%
Source: futurefact 2011
Those least likely to return are whites, Indians, those in LSM 9-10 and the tertiary educated.
futurefact
futurefact
I feel more confident now about future prospects for South Africa than I did before the first democratic elections in 1994
2004 2008 2011
74%
59%53%
Source: futurefact
Applies strongly or on the whole
futurefact
futurefact
Opportunities and progress: Applies strongly/on the whole
71% 63% 61%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Your thoughts on where we are:Political risk and stability
EuphoricCautiously optimisticPretty negativeVery depressed
futurefact view: Cautiously optimistic• Despite all the problems we face, the
government has and continues to provide a stable economic environment
futurefact
futurefact
FORCE #2: Class Mobility
futurefact
futurefact
Why measure class mobility ?
Class Mobility is essentially a self classification, based on people’s perceptions of the class they themselves fall into and of the class their parents fell into when they were the same age.
Class mobile people do not see themselves as static but as ‘moving up the ladder’ and their lifestyles and purchasing decisions will mirror their aspirations.
Class MOBILITY is an important tool for self projection.
“What I believe is what I’ll be”
futurefact
futurefact
Changing face of economics and marketing within SA
In the USA it takes on average four generations for a poor American family to reach the income of an AVERAGE family, yet profound change is occurring in the space of in one generation in South Africa.
South Africa is arguably one of the most socially mobile societies in the world. The move from the circumstances of previous generations is substantial, with the result that optimism prevails in regard to what the future could bring – notwithstanding the realities of the economic recession.
Nonetheless the mobility escalator has slowed and it appears that the bulging middle class of 2009 has split into two segments.
There is much confirming evidence in the 2011 survey that the over-committed are now seeing themselves as part of the working class again, while others have managed to entrench themselves in the middle class or above.
This has immense implications for marketing and communications strategies.
futurefact
futurefact
The social class pyramid
Upper middle / upper class3.3m16%
Middle class8m40%
Working/lower class7.9m39%
5% don’t know
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Inter-generational Mobility:Own Class versus parents’ at the same age
Working Class
Middle Class
Upper Middle
Upper Class Don't Know/ Not sure
56%
27%
8%3%
6%
39% 40%
12%
4% 5%
Parents at same age you are nowOwn class
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
My standard of education is better than my parents managed to achieve
Yes79%
To some extent11%
No 8%
Don't know2%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
High school or post matric education subjects
Any maths Any computer studies
Any science/ technology subject
Any commercial/ business subject
49%
23%28% 30%
64%
31%
42%45%
71%
37%
50%47%
2008 2009 2011
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
High school or post matric education subjects
An
y m
aths
An
y co
mpu
ter s
tudies
An
y sc
ienc
e/ te
chno
logy
sub
ject
An
y co
mm
ercial/ b
usines
s su
bjec
t
88%
51%66%
53%
73%
43%53% 50%
70%
35%49% 48%53%
17%32% 34%
15-24 25-34 35-49 50+
Despite reservations about the new curriculum, the youth of today are certainly better equipped than previous generations
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Standard of living in comparison to parents at the same age
Much better Somewhat better
The same Somewhat worse
Much worse
28%
24%
15%14%
15%
Better = 53%
Worse = 29%
4% Don’t know
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Future standard of living of children when they are your age? (Base: Parents)
Much better Somewhat better
The same Somewhat worse
Much worse
36%
20%
13%10% 11%Better = 57%
Worse = 22%
9% Don’t know
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Personal Income South Africa 1980
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Personal Income South Africa 2000
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Personal Income South Africa 2010
A slight decrease in black share of top 10% is noted since the global economic slump
Source: AMPS
YEAR 2010
futurefact
futurefact
Relative progression in black and white
households: Microwave (2005)
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Black Households White Households000’s
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Relative progression in black and white
households: Free standing deep freeze (2008)
'81'84'85'86'88'89'90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'07'08'09'100
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Black Households White Households000’s
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Relative progression in black and white
households: MNET or DSTV Decoder (2009)
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Black Households White Households000’s
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Relative progression in black and white
households: Internet connection at home* (2010)
'06 '07 '08 '09 '100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Black Households White Households
*Including dial up, ADSL, wireless broadband, mobile access
000’s
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Relative progression in black and white
households: Computer in home (2011/12?)
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Black Households White Households000’s
Source: AMPS
futurefact
futurefact
Source: Before Sunset Blog
Is it the case that ………
futurefact
futurefact
Materialistic aspirations can be a valid route to a harmonious lifestyle...
Out
er-D
irect
ed
Mot
ivat
ed b
y m
ater
ial s
ucce
ss,
over
t st
atus
, app
rova
l , a
hig
h
stan
dard
of liv
ing
and
achi
evem
ent ne
eds
Inner-Directed
Motivated by quality of life,
personal growth and
development, aesthetics,
design.
IntegratedBalance, harmony,
self-actualisation
Need DrivenDriven by need rather than choice
survival, food, drink, shelter, security
SRI (VALS) Double Hierarchy of Needs(Stanford Research Institute)
SRI (VALS)
futurefact
futurefact
I’m usually one of the first people to try new brands I see or hear advertised
I sometimes buy expensive designer clothes for myself because it reflects who I want to be
If a brand does not seem to speak to me, then I will not use it - even if the product or service
meets my needs
I am more likely to buy brands that I see or hear advertised
Brands are important to reflect who I am as a person
It is important to buy the right brands to create the right impression
30%
33%
43%
47%
50%
59%
SA in the Brand Spiral: Agree
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
I’m usually one of the first people to try new brands I see or hear advertised
I sometimes buy expensive designer clothes for myself because it reflects who I want to be
If a brand does not seem to speak to me, then I will not use it - even if the product or service meets my needs
I am more likely to buy brands that I see or hear advertised
Brands are important to reflect who I am as a person
It is important to buy the right brands to create the right impression
Working class
Companies should note the power of the working class: Agree
Source: futurefact 2011
4.3m
3.5m
3.3m
1.9m
1.7m
2.8m
futurefact
futurefact
Your thoughts on how Class Mobility will evolve in the next 10 years or so:
Continue to increase pretty rapidlySlow down substantiallyIt will plateauIt will reverse
futurefact view: Pretty rapidly• Generational change and the opportunity
environment are holding strong for the middle class
futurefact
futurefact
FORCE #3: Sustainability
futurefact
futurefact
Personal Sustainability
futurefact
futurefact
Facilitators to sustainability: Agree
77%71%
45%
28%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Hindrances to personal sustainability:Agree
69% 63%
33% 32%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
I do not believe that people like me can always find work or get a job
Tota
l
15-2
4
25-3
4
35-4
950
+
Blac
k
Colou
red
Indian
White
LSM 2
-4
LSM 5
-6
LSM 7
-8
LSM 9
-10
Up to
Prim
ary co
mplet
e
High
scho
ol
Mat
ric
Post m
atric
40%33%
38%36%
54%
40%42%45%
37%
60%
46%
36%29%
66%
47%
36%
25%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Less than before….
These days I'm paying for things I used to get free (like education, medical care etc)
Services were better in the old SA than they are now
67%
58%
Source: futurefact 2011
Agree
futurefact
futurefact
I already am or intend to start working for myself in the next year or two: Agree
39% 37%43% 41%
32%
40%
26%
43% 41%
33%
41%
48%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Social Capital: Know how to…..
How to register a business
How to register with SARS for tax
Contact someone if you have a legal or financial problem
How to work out percentages
How to keep accounts
How to work out your household / personal budget
Read a bank statement
Read an electricity / services account
38%
46%
53%
60%
76%
77%
87%
87%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Economic Sustainability
futurefact
futurefact
The gap between the rich and the poor is just going to get bigger
2009 2011
49%58%
30%28%
16% 10%5% 5%
Don't know
Disagree
Agree
Agree strongly
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Attitudes to Unions: Agree
I believe that strikers are justified in resorting to violence
I support that workers have the right not to strike
I would like to see the government reining in/controlling the unions
Providers of essential services, like teachers, nurses & police should never be allowed to strike
The unions protect their own members but make things harder/worse for people who don't have jobs
The gap between the wages of government officials and public servants is much too high
I support that workers have the right to strike
Government does not take issues seriously until civil action/strikes occur
36%
42%
54%
60%
62%
63%
71%
74%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Productivity & efficiency: Agree
72% 68%
Source: futurefact 2011
Essential to ensure economic growth and advancement
futurefact
futurefact
IMD – World Competitiveness Yearbook
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ranking of SA 37 38 50 43 48 44 52
Total Number of countries 50 52 55 55 57 57 58
futurefact
futurefact
Our place among the emerging market countries amidst all the global economic turmoil…
South Africa ranks 10th for foreign direct investment in Africa.
South Africa ranks below Nigeria and Egypt - two countries which are on the rise - but we are also, incredibly, behind Libya.
Top of the list of disincentives to invest is our weak and uncertain policy environment.
futurefact
futurefact
EnvironmentalSustainability
futurefact
futurefact
I already recycle things like glass, paper and cans
I believe that I can reduce the impact of climate change on the earth by changing my habits
I am prepared to switch off electrical appliances to save energy/electricity
31%
50%
80%
Environmental sustainability: Agree
Source: futurefact 2007
futurefact
futurefact
Your thoughts on Sustainability: Given that this includes personal, economic and environmental sustainability, how many points out of 10 do you give us as a country?
futurefact view: 6• Willingness to save, create jobs and protect
the environment is there, but government policies are not creating a sufficiently conducive environment
futurefact
futurefact
FORCE #4: Social Inclusion & the Value of Diversity
futurefact
futurefact
Spirit of inclusion and a meritocracy mindset
83%79%
71% 71%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Have friends from other race groups
Total LSM 2-4 LSM 5-6 LSM 7-8 LSM 9-10
52%
24%39%
61% 66%
48%
76%61%
39% 34%
No
Yes
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Self Description (First Descriptor)
South African51%African
31%
By race9%
By language group4%
By religion2%
By cultural belief2%
Source: futurefact 2011
People no longer see themselves in the boxes of the apartheid era
futurefact
futurefact
Attitudes to Africa
futurefact
futurefact
Declining negative or divisive attitudes regarding Africa…
“Immigrants are a threat to jobs for South Africans, they should not be allowed into the country”In 2006
69%
agreedIn 2011
59%
agreed
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Declining negative or divisive attitudes regarding Africa…
In 2011
59%
agreed
“People from South Africa are superior to those from other parts of Africa”
I’m not arrogant
I’m just better than
youIn 2007
67%
agreed
Source: futurefact
futurefact
futurefact
Your thoughts on Social Inclusion: What is the likelihood we can achieve unity in diversity?
Already a reality80:2050:50It’s a pipe dream – it’s never going to happen
futurefact view: 80:20With a big proviso that the constitution, media freedom, the judiciary and so on are respected and leadership sends out racially inclusive messages
futurefact
futurefact
FORCE #5: Our Digital World
futurefact
futurefact
Technological advances driven by pressures from a Digital Society have allowed people and countries to leap-frog technology.
The Giant Leap
futurefact
futurefact
Attitudes to technology: Agree
53% 51%
46%
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Communication devices in the home
Source: futurefact 2011
Products like I-Pods, I-Pads, Blackberries and Kindles still have very few users – even in the upper classes
A cellphone A landline at home
Any portable MP3 player
Smartphone GPS A Blackberry An I-Phone An I-Pad
89%
21%
7% 7% 5% 5%1% 1%
86%
10%
3% 3% 2% 2% 1%
90%
26%
8% 7% 5% 6%
93%
32%
15%21%
13% 11%
2% 2%
Total Working class Middle class Upper middle/upper class
futurefact
futurefact
Access internet/mobi sites/wap
Use twitter/ facebook /what's up
Send e-mails
Use instant messaging like mxit
Mms (picture messages) from your cell phone
Download music on your cell phone
Listen to the radio on your cell phone
Listen to music on your cell phone
Send photos from your cell phone camera
Take photos using your cell phone camera
Send please call me's from your cell phone
Send and receive smss
13%
13%
15%
16%
20%
22%
25%
29%
31%
40%
53%
77%
Source: futurefact 2011
What people do on their cellphones
Base: have own cellphone
futurefact
futurefact
Attitudes to unsolicited calls and sms: Agree
Total Black White 16-24 years
25-34 years
35-49 years
50+ years
Work-ing /
lower class
Middle class
Upper middle
& upper
43% 43%
52%
46% 46% 46%
34% 36%
46%
54%
29% 28%
38%33% 34%
30%
18% 20%
33%
43%
Receiving many more unsolicited sms adverts and sales callsWould pay to join a do not call or sms me service
Source: futurefact 2011
futurefact
futurefact
Tota
l
15-2
4
25-3
4
35-4
9
50+
Bla
ck
Colo
ure
d
India
n
White
Work
ing c
lass
Mid
dle
cla
ss
Upper
mid
dl..
.
31%
44%
34%
28%
18%
25%20%
36%
56%
16%
37%
53%
Source: futurefact 2011
Who has access to the internet?
70% 82% 71%
61% 53%
79% 80%61%
57%
74% 69%
69%
49% 38% 40%
65% 65%
35%50%
56%
67%
32% 46%
69%
Via cell Via PC
futurefact
futurefact
Shopping on the internet
Read/write blogs
Get news alerts/breaking news
Downloading videos
Read a publication online on a computer screen
Visited a newspaper website
Downloading games
Doing banking on the internet
Downloading music
Social networking
Sending/receiving e mails
Browsing/searching for information
9%
11%
15%
16%
18%
21%
21%
25%
35%
47%
62%
76%
Source: futurefact 2011
What people do on the internet
Base: have internet access
futurefact
futurefact
Cellphone penetration Africa
In 2002 there were 49 million cellphones in Africa
Now there are 500 million…At this rate every person living in Africa will own a
cellphone by 2020
futurefact
futurefact
Digital world key to economic & personal growth
Leapfrogging technology is key to economic and personal growth in Africa.
The youth are known to be the early adopters of technology, but the knowledge is then filtered to older generations.
This could change the face of marketing, banking, education and political freedom for the youth in Africa.
futurefact
futurefact
Your thoughts on Digital World: What do you think is the more likely scenario in the next 5 years or so?
We will continue to leapfrog aheadOur growth will be stymied by regulations and costs
futurefact view: We will continue to leapfrog ahead
• Advances in technology, generational change and business will put pressure on regulators as will the economic imperative for the country
futurefact
futurefact
IN C
ON
CLU
SIO
N..
.
futurefact
futurefact
Challenges facing South Africa.....
Education
Healthcare
Media Freedo
m
Alcoholism
BEEChild & woman abuse
Climate change
Crime Food cost
Health care
Gangs
Illegal immigrant
s
Emigration
Electricity
Economic transformation
Drugs
StrikesService delivery
Corruption
Poverty
Low exportsRand strength
Global market volatility
Fuel price
Land redistribution Foreign investmen
t
Judicial system
Housing
HIV/Aids Racism
Rand volatilit
y
Police
Skills shortag
e
Fracking
Water
Unemployment
XenophobiaPolitical
leadership
Labour laws
etc...
futurefact
futurefact
4. Social Inclusion
2. Class Mobility
5. Digital World
1. Political Risk &
Stability3. Sustainability
A nuanced and useful way of contextualising the challenges
futurefact
futurefact
To build sustainable strategic advantage ......
Attitudes precede behaviour so change on a societal level translates into a changing consumer market.
Strategising for product and services development, positioning
and communication is a crucial ongoing process for any
organisation in the evolving South Africa.
futurefact
futurefact
www.futurefact.co.za
Thank you