six forces of change shaping our future
DESCRIPTION
Global societal megatrends shaping our present and future lives.TRANSCRIPT
SIXGlobal societal megatrends
www.steria.noSIX FORCES FORCES
*Shaping our present and future lives*
© Steria
*Population growth. New technology. Unlimited choice. Information explosion. Freedom to connect. Resource depletion.
The forces shaping our present and future
Global societal megatrends Spanning hundreds of years Will affect life in all areas For many years to come
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The six forces
Population growth New technology Unlimited choicePopulation growth
1New technology
2Unlimited choice
31 2 3Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
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Understanding our complex world is simple
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You just have to observe it…
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From a distance…
Earth at nightNASA satellite Photo
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NASA satellite Photo
© Photo: DMSP and NASA
Over time…
100 years of ups and downs 1000100 years of ups and downs on the American Stock ExchangeSource: Dow Jones Industrial Average
1000
1000Trend line
100
10
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And the big waves of change will be obvious
The Agricultural Revolution (late 17th Century) The Industrial Revolution (late 18th Century) The Digital Revolution (late 19th Century) Coming: The Evolution Revolution (20st Century)
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Let’s go way, way back in time
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Once upon a time…
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Life was really simple…
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Humans hunted…
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Gathered food…
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Fought disasters and diseases
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Life continued like that for…
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200.000 years
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Then something happened…
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It was a revolutionary point
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In the history of humankind
Late 17th. century
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Humans began to cultivate food crops
The Agricultural Revolution started
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The most basic need could now be satisfied
FOODFOOD
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Historians call it the Dawn of Civilization
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Life exploded
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Population growthp g
© Steria© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography
It has been the main force of change
New technology Unlimited choicePopulation growth New technology
2Unlimited choice
3Population growth
1 2 31Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
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Population growth
10
9From 1 to 6 billion people Year 20409 billion
8
7
6 PEO
PLEin just 200 years
Year 20096,8 billion
9 billion
6
543 LL
ION
S O
F
1
3
2 BIL
Year 18041 billion people
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Explosive growth in people…
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Triggered explosive growth in all areas
Creative
Social
Creative
Technical
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change28© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography
More people meant more ideas…
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More inventions
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It was the second revolutionary point in time
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The Industrial Revolution
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Year
© Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms
It fuelled rapid economic progress
Growth in World Domestic Product 30G o t o d o est c oduct25
20 s
Source: Angus Maddison ”Monitoring the World Economy (OECD, 1995)
20
15
lion
dolla
rs
10
5
Trill
0
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“Global economic activity (GDP) has increased by “a factor of 40 since the start of the Industrial Revolution.”
– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2001Emissions Scenarios, 2001
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Dramatic increase in production capacity
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change35© Photo: Scanpix / NYT / Matthew Holst
It accelerated technological development
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That brings us to the 2nd. force of change
Population growth Unlimited choiceNew technologyPopulation growth
1Unlimited choice
3New technology
21 32Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
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New technologyNew technology© Steria
© Photo: AFP / Mario Tama
Agri-technology
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© Photo: Scanpix / Camera Press / NCNA
Robotics-technology
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Energy- and nuclear technology
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change41© Photo: Masterfile (Dale Sanders)
Bio-technology
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Nano-technology
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Information-technology
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change44© Photo: Masterfile / Glen Wexler
One development has meant more than anything else…
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The transistor and integrated circuit
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Rate of development that defies the imagination
The first transistor invented in 1947 could be held in your hand
Hundreds of the latest* transistors fit on the surface of a red blood cell
The price of one of these is 1 millionth the price of a transistor in 1968
If car prices had fallen at the same rate, a new car today would cost about 1 cent
Morgan Sparks, the man who turned the earliest transistor into a practical device
*P f I t l
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*Penryn from Intel
Technology makes us more productive
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We can invent and produce a lot more ”stuff”
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That brings us to the 3rd. force of change
New technologyPopulation growth Unlimited choiceNew technology
2Population growth
1Unlimited choice
321 3Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
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Unlimited choice
© Steria
Unlimited choice
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Three examples:
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Unlimited choice of groceries
1920: Typical grocery store 1960: Typical supermarket1920: Typical grocery store 1960: Typical supermarket
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Unlimited choice of groceries
2004: Typical supermarket (just the fruit and vegetable section)2004: Typical supermarket (just the fruit and vegetable section)
The number of products carried by an average US supermarket has more than tripled since 1980,from 15,000 to 50,000S
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Source: Food Marketing Institute 2004
Unlimited choice of TV-channels and media
Average number of TV-channels per home in the USAverage number of TV channels per home in the US
1960
62008
118Source: Nielsen Media
R h 2008 / B i
6 118Research, 2008 / Business Week, The Vanishing Mass
Market, 2004
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Unlimited choice of cars
1908 20091908 2009
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Some more evidence…
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Worldwide patent activities
A doubling of total world patent filings in 20 years▬ 1985: ~ 884,000 ▬ 2006: ~ 1 76 million▬ 2006: 1.76 million
Japan, the USA, Korea, Germany and China accounted for 76 % of the total patent filings
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Growth in worldwide patent activities
Patent filings in leading economies 450,000JapanPatent filings in leading economies
Source: World Patent Report – A Statistical Review (2008)
300 000 gs
Japan
300,000
ber o
f fili
ng
USA
150,000
Num
b
Europe
China
0
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We are approaching the age of 100 million products and services to choose from
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Freedom or overload?
The debate goes on...
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change62© Photo: Photo: #11 – Pecado venialhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/paco_calvino/509970213/
The debate goes on...
Something else is growing fast…
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InformationInformation
© Steria© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile
The 4th. force of change
Unlimited choiceNew technologyPopulation growth Unlimited choice
3New technology
2Population growth
1 321Freedom to connect Resource depletionInformation explosion
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Information explosionInformation explosion
© Steria© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile
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© Steria© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile
That brings us to the third revolutionary point in time
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The Digital Revolution
Size of circles indicate amount information produced worldwide
Sources: (1) The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, March 2008, An IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC(2) How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School ofUC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003
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“More information will be created in the next three years than in the history of time.”
– Berkley School of Information Management, 2002
The The explodingexplodingexplodingexploding
digitaldigitaluniverseuniverseuniverseuniverse
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Many feel overloaded
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Historians call it…
the Information Agewww.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change72
© Photo:
A real change in human ecology
All of a sudden almost“ All of a sudden, almost every aspect of life around the world is being recorded and “
gstored in some information format. That's a real change in
”our human ecology.”
– Peter Lyman, professor emeritus at UC Berkeley's School of Information
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The amount of information produced…
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Is directly linked to how connected we are
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change75© Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire
Now, let’s look at this
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The 5th. force of change
Unlimited choiceNew technologyPopulation growth Unlimited choice
3New technology
2Population growth
1 321Information explosion Resource depletionFreedom to connect
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F d t tFreedom to connect© Steria
© Photo:
Across the globe
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Cross border exchange of goods
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Cross border exchange of people
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Cross border exchange of culture
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Cross border exchange of capital
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change83© Photo: Corbis / Alan Schein Photography
And especially this…
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Cross border exchange of information
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Today, we can connect with blinding speed
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Easier than ever before
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With the Internet and the Web as the platform
A map of the global A map of the global Internet▬ 700 million computers
connected in a network of networks
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Source: MIT's Technology Review, Mapping the internetSource: MIT's Technology Review, Mapping the internet
Everyone and everything is inextricably linked
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We have instant worldwide reach
With j t f k t kWith just a few keystrokesAnd Social Media tools like:
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It means that things spread
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Farther and faster than ever
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The good stuff
Democratization (voting right is key)
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Democratization (voting right is key)
The good stuff
Democratization60
Number of nations 1800-2003 scoring 8 or higher on Polity IV scale, a measure of democracy
60
50
40
30
Scor
e
10
20
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change94Source: The Polity IV project. Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratization
But also the really bad stuff
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But also the really bad stuff
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Now, let’s look at this…
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The 6th. driver for change
Unlimited choiceNew technologyPopulation growth Unlimited choice
3New technology
2Population growth
1 321Freedom to connectInformation explosion Resource depletion
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Natural resourcesNatural resourcesare being depleted at record rates
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2xEarths’2xEarthsBy 2050 we will be using TWICE as many naturalTWICE as many natural resources as the Earth
can replenish.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change101SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis
I th t 40In the next 40 years the pressure on Earth’s ecosystemswill increase dramaticallywill increase dramatically
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200%200%World demand for energy is expected to more than DOUBLE.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change103SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, 2007 © PHOTO: Scanpix / Folio / Tor LindbergPLACE: Chicago
300%300%The number of cars in the world is expected to TRIPLE.p
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change104SOURCE: 50 by 50: Global Fuel Economy Initiative, 2009: FIA Foundation, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum (ITF) © PHOTO: Pixtal
400%The size of the world economy
(GDP) is expected to QUADRUPLE.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change105SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, jan. 2007 © PHOTO: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd PLACE: Ship near harbor in Singapore
Parts of the world will grow and PROSPER.
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1 5 billion1,5 billionProjected population in China.
China is expected to become the world's LARGEST economy.China is expected to become the world s LARGEST economy.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change107SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: AFP / Liu Jin
1 6 billion1,6 billionProjected population in India.j p p
India is expected to become the THIRD largest economy in the world.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change108SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: Reuters / Stringer / India
Other parts of the world will be DEVASTATED.
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CrudeOver the past 50 years,
we have changed ecosystems more extensively than in any period in human history.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change110SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, 2005 © PHOTO: Scanpix / AFP / David BoilyPLACE: Oil-sand field in Canada
90%90%of the large fish in the seas have been plundered.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change111SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 © PHOTO: Unknown
75%75%of the natural ecosystems on which we depend y p
have already been degraded.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change112SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy
50%50%of all the forests that once covered the Earth, ,
have been cleared for farmland and urban development.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change113SOURCE: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998–99 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy
25%25% of all species is heading for extinction.for extinction.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change114SOURCE: Wildlife in a changing world, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008 EVENT: Seabird caught in fishnet
The competition for FOOD, WATER, LAND and ENERGY will intensify.
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As we keep CROWDING the Earth.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change116EVENT: Earth at night © PHOTO: DMSP and NASA
In ever growing METROPOLISESIn ever growing METROPOLISES
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change117PLACE: Chicago © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Robert Llewellyn
The KEY point is…
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UnsustainableThe fashion and speed in which we keep exploiting Earth,
is simply unsustainable in the long term
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© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis
Food-shortages and malnutrition is striking already hard-hit areas.
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www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change121EVENT: Food Crisis in Kolkata, West Bengal, India © PHOTO: Scanpix / ZUMA press
2 billion2 billionpeople are already affected by water scarcity.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change122SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 © PHOTO: Scanpix / ReutersEVENT: Water crisis in Wangcheng county, central China, July 2007
Up to 25% of the world’s food production“world s food production may become lost due to environmental breakdown by 2050 unless action is taken.”
– UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) ,The Environmental g ) ,Food Crisis – The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises, 2009
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Mass MIRGRATION is inevitable.
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MigrationMigration
Damage from climate change forces people to leave hard-hit rural areas to seek better conditions in already over-crowded cities.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change125© PHOTO: ScanpixPLACE: India
1 billi1 billionare currently living as slum dwellersare currently living as slum dwellers
in the developing world’s cities.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change126SOURCE: World Bank, World Development Report 2009 "Reshaping Economic Geography © PHOTO: GettyPLACE: Lagos in Nigeria
200 million200 millionEstimated number of climate refugees by 2050.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change127SOURCE: Synthesis Report, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, 2009
So, please dear friend…
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Help to create a sustainable world
And safeguard our future
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We now have an UNIQUE chance.
To be more creative than ever before.To totally rethink and redesign our lives:
- How we get and use energy.Ho e ork and li e- How we work and live.
- How we make things.
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change130© Photo: Scanpix / Reuters
To sum it all up
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Our lives are undergoing dramatic changes
Population growth New technology Unlimited choicePopulation growth
1New technology
2Unlimited choice
31 2 3Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion
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Now, to the big question…
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What to do
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Time toTime to adapt
© Steria
p© Photo:
Life and people has dramatically changedduring the last 200 years
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Life is more complex
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Pace of change is faster
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Pace of change will keep on increasing
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change139© Photo: Brand X
The more complexity
that is created, the easier it “is for more complexity to emerge. Whether we like it or not the pace of change isor not, the pace of change is going to keep increasing.”
– Peter Russel, M.A., D.C.S., F.S.P.www.peterrussel.com
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Pressure to adapt is stronger than ever
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change141© Photo: Image Source
Luckily we have a superior capability…
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To adapt and evolve
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That brings us to the fourth revolutionary point in time
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The evolution revolution
Leading anthropologists are convinced that humans are evolving
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First, let’s get rid of a misconception…
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Human evolution stopped a long time ago
STOPSTOP For most of the last century, the received wisdom in y,
the social sciences has been that human evolution stopped a long time ago
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Wrong! It never stopped
Human beings are continuing to evolve as our genes g g grespond to rapid changes in the world around us
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Human evolution didn't stop when anatomically modern humans appeared out f Af i It t d ”of Africa. It never stopped.”
– Henry Harpending anthropologists and– Henry Harpending, anthropologists and author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”
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Our evolution has recently“ Our evolution has recently accelerated by around 100-fold. A key reason is the “
yenormous growth of the world's population, which multiplies the
fsize of the gene pool available to launch new varieties.”
– John Hawks, assistant professor of anthropology, University of Wisconsin-Madison””
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The pace of change has
been so rapid that humans “have changed significantly in body and mind over recorded history Several hundred athistory. Several hundred at least, maybe over a thousand genes are currently evolving.”g y g
– Henry Harpending, anthropologists and author of "The 10 000 Year Explosion”author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”
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Just look at the generational differences…
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Veterans MillennialsGen XersBaby boomersVeteransborn before 1946 born after 1980
Gen Xersborn 1965 - 1980
Baby boomersborn 1946 - 1964
U d b id d Conformity Conservatism Traditional family
values
Experimental Individualism Free spirited Social cause
Used to be guided Want work/life
balance Independent
Technically savvy Multitasking Mix fun and work Heightened fearsvalues
Loyal Frugal
oriented Question authority
Informal Entrepreneurial
Values security and safety
High change tolerance
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What about the future
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change154© Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire
The only constant I am “ ysure of is this accelerating pace of change.”“
– From the song Downside Up b P t G b i l (1950 )by Peter Gabriel (1950- ), British Rock Musician
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© Photo: Scanpix / Heritage / Jewish Chronical
“ Our evolutionary lineage is marked by mastery of change“mastery of change. In our time, the pace is quickening.”q g
– Carl Sagan (1934 –1996) astronomer astrochemistastronomer, astrochemist
www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change156© Photo: Michael Okoniewski
The adaptive imperative
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It is not the strongest of the species thatIt is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.”
– Charles Darwin, Origin of the Species, 1859
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Acknowledgements
There are a lot of great presentations, books and articles on Anthropology, Social Psychology and Megatrends available on theweb. A few in particular were noteworthy inspirations for this presentation, including:
The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution (Hardcover) by Gregory Cochran (Author), Henry Harpending, Basic Books (January 26, 2009), ISBN-10: 0465002218 Link: http://the10000yearexplosion.com/
Global Imperatives — The Accelerating Pace of Change: From Strategy to Execution, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Copyright 2008, ISBN 978-3-540-71879-6 (Print) 978-3-540-71880-2
Modern life's pressures may be hastening human evolution, By Robert S. Boyd, McClatchy Newspapers Modern life s pressures may be hastening human evolution, By Robert S. Boyd, McClatchy NewspapersLink: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/staff/robert_boyd/story/65737.html
Why megatrends matter, Futureorientation, May 2006, Copenhagen Institue for Future StudiesLink: http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469
The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years, by Stephen Moore and Julian L. SimonLink: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa364.pdf
Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update Donella Meadows Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows Chelsea Green 2004 Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows, Chelsea Green, 2004http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, Mar. 2008, IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC Link http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm
How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003Link: http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/
When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing? Sheena S Iyengar Columbia University & Mark R When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing? Sheena S. Iyengar, Columbia University & Mark R. Lepper Stamford university. http://www.columbia.edu/~ss957/whenchoice.html
The history of the Integrated Circuit, www.Nobleprize.orgLink: http://nobelprize.org/educational_games/physics/integrated_circuit/history/index.html
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