fundamental analysis - microsoft2015, only rising once in april 2016.”-jason attewell, statistics...
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21/12/2016
Fundamental Analysis
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Major events this week (December 19 - 23)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
03:00 am JPY Merchandise Trade Balance November 536.1B 474.3B
09:00 am EUR German Ifo Business Climate December 111.0 110.7 110.4
TUESDAY
12:30 am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tentative JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
21:45 pm NZD Trade Balance (MoM) November $-705M $-846M
WEDNESDAY
15:30 pm USD Crude Oil Inventories December -2.6M
21:45 pm NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter 3.6%
THURSDAY
13:30 pm CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM) December 0.2%
13:30 pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) December 0.8%
FRIDAY
09:30 am GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter 0.5%
13.30 pm CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) October 0.3%
15:00 pm USD New Home Sales November 563K
UK
Britain's retail sales advanced unexpectedly during previous month as Black Friday discounts led consumers to splurge on electronics and household goods. According to the Office for National Statistics, the volume of goods sold in stores and online went up 0.2% from October. Excluding auto fuel, sales were up 0.5% while online shopping, soared 3.8%. Meanwhile, no change was forecast in a Bloomberg survey. It is worth to point out that increase follows a 1.8% jump in October when cooler temperatures spurred demand for winter clothing. It means that sales will grow in the fourth quarter unless they drop 6.9% in December. These figures suggest consumer confidence remains buoyant in the wake of the Brexit vote but headwinds are building.
US
US retail sales rose modestly last month due to lower sales of motor vehicles, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the Commerce Department, retail sales advanced 0.1% in November, compared to the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 0.6%, whereas analysts expected sales to grow 0.3%. Year-over-year, sales increased 3.8%. Excluding volatile items, core retail sales climbed 0.1%, following October's 0.6% rise and falling behind the 0.4% gain market forecast. Analysts suggest the US presidential elections had some degree of general impact on sales last month, as traditionally November marks the start of the important holiday shopping season. Separately, the Labor Department reported that its Producer Price Index grew 0.4% on a monthly basis in November, the biggest increase since June, after remaining unchanged last month. On a yearly basis, producer prices rose 1.3%, the largest gain since November 2014.
EU
The Euro zone's employment growth slowed in the September quarter, official figures revealed on Tuesday. According to flash figures published by Eurostat, the number of employed persons climbed 0.2% in the Q3, down from the preceding quarter's gain of 0.4%, whereas economists expected an increase of 0.3%. However, there were 153.4 million employed in the region, the highest level since the Q4 of 2008. On a yearly basis, employment growth increased 1.2% in three months to September, following the prior quarter's 1.3% rise. Other data released on the same day showed German economic sentiment remained unchanged in December amid the looming banking crisis in Italy and upcoming elections in the Euro zone's largest economies The Mannheim-based ZEW Institute's Economic Sentiment Index came in at 13.8, unchanged from November, while market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 14.2. In addition, the figure was below its log-term average pf 24.0 points. Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index advanced to 63.5 in December, indicating positive trends within the German economy, whereas markets expected the Index to hold steady at 58.8 in the reported month..
Key highlights of the week ended December 16
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NZD
“Beef exports to the United States, our top beef export destination, fell by around half when compared to November last year. When compared to the same month of the previous year, the value of beef exports to the US have fallen in nearly every month since October 2015, only rising once in April 2016.” - Jason Attewell, Statistics New Zealand
Wednesday, December 21, 2016 08:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Trends* Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
MAX 0.86 0.80 0.78
75% percentile 0.71 0.70 0.71
Median 0.70 0.69 0.69
25% percentile 0.66 0.67 0.65
MIN 0.57 0.60 0.58 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
New Zealand’s trade balance -705M versus -500M forecast High
According to the latest data released New Zealand’s trade balance accelerated in November, but remained in negative territory for the fifth consecutive month. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $705 million in November, down from $846 million in October. Meanwhile, a median estimate of economists predicted a $500 million shortfall. Compared to the previous year, the value of goods exports went down by $219 million $3.86 billion. Moreover, shipments of meat and offal led the decrease, falling 31%. Exports of milk powder, butter and cheese, in turn, advanced 2.6%. Exports to the European Union dropped 32% and to the United States by 23%, while other export destinations, including China, Japan and Australia, were little changed. Although, goods imports declined by $310 million to $4.6 billion and capital goods led the fall with a 26% drop. The import of intermediate goods and consumption goods also fell. Now, attention of economists focuses on the release of third quarter GDP figures, which are scheduled for Thursday. In the meantime, the New Zealand economy is forecast to grow 0.9% in the September quarter, following an identical increase in each of the past three quarters.
20.12 open price 20.12 close price % change
AUD/NZD 1.04533 1.0495 +0.40%
EUR/NZD 1.50103 1.50153 +0.03%
GBP/NZD 1.78792 1.78742 -0.03%
NZD/USD 0.69271 0.69148 -0.18%
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events previous week (December 12 - 16)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
04:30 pm JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) October 0.2% -0.3%
TUESDAY
09:30 am GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.2% 0.9%
10:00 am EUR Employment Change (YoY) Quarter 1.2% 1.4%
13:30 pm USD Import Price Index (YoY) November -0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
WEDNESDAY
11:30 am GBP Unemployment Rate November 4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
13:30 pm USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) November 0.2% 0.4% 0.6%
19:00 pm USD Fed Interest Rate Decision December 0.75% 0.75% 0.50%
THURSDAY
12:30 am AUD Employment Change November 39.1K 20.0K 15.2K
12:00 pm GBP Retail Sales (MoM) November 0.2% 0.2% 1.8%
13:30 pm CAD Manufacturing Sales October -0.8% 0.7% 0.3%
13:30 pm USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
FRIDAY
10:00 am EUR Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) November 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
13:30 pm USD Building Permits November 1.200M 1.240M 1.260M
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
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