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TRANSCRIPT
Policy Dialogue on the Development of Kazakhstan’s Food
Chains
8 September 2011
Astana
Fruit and
vegetable sector of
Kazakhstan
Planting area and harvest dynamics of vegetables 1986-2009
1
• In 2000, production of
vegetables has recovered to the
level of the end 80-s.
• In 2009, production has
increased to 40% compared to
2000
• Within last 5 years production
has stabilized on 108-112
thousand ha level
Source: Statistics Agency
1.1 0.9 1.1 2.0 2.20
20
40
60
80
100
120
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 2001-05 2006-09
Planted area, '000 ha Harves, MT mln
Vegetables, potato and apples production structure (2009), ‘000 MT
2 Source: Statistics Agency
Potato2,756
Melon852
Tomato581
Onion388
Cabbage376
Carrot322
Cucumber270
Apple118
Vegetable production by regions
3 Source: Statistics Agency
3.6
37.7
43.3
53.0
53.9
59.9
66.1
85.0
85.0
142.2
172.0
357.5
532.2
611.3
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Mangghystau
West Kazakhstan
Atyrau
Qostanay
Aqtöbe
Aqmola
Qaraghandy
Pavlodar
Qyzylorda
North Kazakhstan
East Kazakhstan
Zhambyl
South Kazakhstan
Almaty
Vegetables harvest, ‘000 MT
Structure of vegetable, potato and apple production by farm types
4
6% 2% 6% 10% 3% 4% 2% 6%
31% 24% 38% 61% 46% 21% 43% 71%
64% 74% 56% 29% 50% 75% 55% 23%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Share in harvest, 2007-2009
Enterprises Farms Households
Source: Statistics Agency
Vegetable, potato and apple yield by farm types
5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Potato Apple Tomato Cucumbers Cabbage Onion Carrot
2007-2009 average, MT/ha
Enterprises Farms Households
Source: Statistics Agency
Vegetables and apples yield in Kazakhstan and selected countries
6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Apple Cabbage Carrot Cucumber Onion Tomato
Average yield 2007-2009, MT/ha
Kazakhstan China USA
Source: Statistics Agency, FAO stat
Customs Control Committee (KZ) and UN ComTradeexternal trade data comparison
Import of vegetables from China, ‘000 MT Import of vegetables from China, USD mln
0.3 0.2
29.2
13.5
28.4
52.8
2006 2007 2008
по данным РК по данным КНР
6.99.8
4.34.47.2 6.3
2006 2007 2008
по данным РК по данным РФ
Import of vegetables from Russia, USD mln
58.087.0
105.7142.0 135.1
178.3
2006 2007 2008
по данным РК по данным РФ
Export of vegetables to Russia, USD mln
1.0 0.8
80.6
43.5
77.2
113.6
2006 2007 2008
по данным РК по данным КНР
34.7
57.0
24.320.8
36.026.9
2006 2007 2008
по данным РК по данным РФ
Import of vegetables from Russia, ‘000 MT
242.8240.7
248.1250.2
244.0
249.3
2006 2007 2008
по данным РК по данным РФ
Export of vegetables to Russia, ‘000 MT
7 Source: Statistics Agency, UN ComTrade
KZ data Chinese data
KZ data Russian data
KZ data Russian data
KZ data Chinese data
KZ data Russian data
KZ data Russian data
The estimation of the real import
59%73%
26%39%
45%
64%
24%
30% 1%
5%
3%3%
2%
2%
11%26%
69%58%
51%
34%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
яблоки свекла капуста морковь перец огурцы томаты
Доля "серого" импорта Доля официального импорта
Доля производства КХ и сельхозпредприятий
8
The main source of «grey import» – Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan
Sources: Statistics Agency, Customs office, UN ComTrade, National nutrition academy, own estimations based on survey and interviews
Share of “grey” import
Share of farms and enterprises
Share of official import
Apple Beetroot Cabbage Carrot Pepper Cucumber Tomato
Consumption pattern of fruits and vegetables
Urban, 49,6%
Rural population, 32,2%
HoReCa, 6,9%
Export, 5,2%
Processing, 2,8%
Schools, 1,9%
Military forces, 0,5%
Kindergardens, 0,5%
Hospitals, 0,2%
Jails, 0,2%
9 Sources: Statistics Agency, Customs office, UN ComTrade, National nutrition academy, own estimations based on survey and interviews
Production profitability
Estimated profitability is higher that statisticaldata. The Agency on Statistics counts onlyagricultural enterprise data which usually haslower profitability.
* Only agricultural enterprises
10 Sources: Statistics Agency, AIK company estimation, own calculation
Vegetable Potato Melon
Onion
Carrot
Cabbage
Potato
Cucumber
Tomato
Business attractiveness of different types of fruits and vegetables
11
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Potato
Cabbage
Onion
Pepper
TomatoCarrot
Beet root
Cucumber
Melon
costs, KZT per kg
Min
imu
m p
rice
in 2
00
8.,
Kaza
khst
an a
vera
ge, K
ZT p
er k
g
Water melon
Apples
Profitability less than 50%
Negative profitability
Profitability more than 50%
11 Sources: Statistics Agency, AIK company estimation, own calculation
Case study: China and Kazakhstan 12
12
Changzi
Almaty
Source: Google Maps
China and Kazakhstan 13
13
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
Average wholesale tomato price in Almaty and Changzicounty (China), yuan/kg
Almaty (2006-2008) China (2004-2008)
Sources: KAM, Zhang Duoyu (2009)
Tomato paste: benchmarking
14
Purchasing price for tomatoes, KZT/kg
China (Changzi county) 5,4
USA (Heinz tomatoes, California) 8,8
Kazakhstan (Almaty oblast) 11,0
Sources: interview, grunt.at.ua, Zhang Duoyu (2009)
The major constrains from economic side and policy side
• Farmers’ lack of knowledge: low level of technologies and management
• Homogeneity of fresh F&V market: consumers cannot identify the origin of the commodities
• Lack of on-farm storages
Potential investment decisions for EBRD and other investors
• Taking into account high prices in mid-season, the greenhouse business may be potentially profitable, however it depends highly on staff qualification
• The tomato paste production may be profitable if the price on tomato would be lower and/or price premium on high quality product would take place
Possible solutions to release these constraints
• Extension system development:
• Support of agricultural consulting
• Development of agricultural education
• Marketing
• Distribution of price information
• The system of voluntary product certification (hazard-free, green food, organic)
• Support of product branding
Thank you for attention!
18