from vulnerability assessments to adaptation -martin konig

Climate Forum East: adaptation workshop Tbilissi, March 26th-28th 2014

adaptation (appraisal)

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Martin König Environment Agency Austria Department for Environmental Impact Assessment and Climate Change

From vulnerability assessments to

EU guidelines on the adaptation process

EU(COM) (2013)

CVA

NAS

prep

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imp

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en

tati

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Some key questions for the CVA/NAS process

1. Which sectors/regions are most vulnerable?

2. Which parts of economy are most sensitive?

3. Which ecosystems might collapse/have low resilience under changing

climate regimes?

4. Which meteorological extreme events (have) cause(d) major

damages/losses? How is their trend/projection?

5. Which gradual shifts do we have to adapt to?

6. Are there any opportunities due to climate change we should make use of?

7. What is the range of uncertainty we have to face?

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1. Which conflicts among stakeholders/sectoral interests are already visible?

2. Which mainstreaming potential with sectoral policies can already be

detected?

3. How can the suggested adaptation measures be prioritized?

Some core demands in the realms of CCA

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How much is Climate Change for our economy (in monetary terms)?

How much public investment is needed for adaptation?

What about the private adaptation potential to relief public budgets?

What are the threats of maladaptation?

In terms of trade offs with mitigation targets

In terms of trade offs with environmental/sustainability targets

In terms of path dependencies

In terms of competition (‘only the strong survive’ – oligopolistic structures) and harming others

Some adaptation starters

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Impact chains:

1. Urban heat waves

2. Drought in agriculture -> forest fires

3. Slope instability, mass movements

4. floods

Mostly affected:

1. Urban (elderly) population, construction and building

2. Farmers, foresters

3. Infrastructures (housing, energy, transport)

4. Infrastructures and agricultural yields, (ecosystems)

Urban heat waves

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Potable water supply

Afforestration around cities

blue areas and water vapouring

Shading & green roofs

Active cooling (A/C)

Passive cooling

green areas

Increase albedo

Heat alert system/early

warning

Costs?

Responsibilities?

Private/public capacities?

Synergies? Trade-Offs?

Mainstreaming into pertinent Policy domains – where and when?

Drought in agriculture/forestry

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Water reservoirs

Crop variation

Risk transfer/drought

insurance

Irrigation Which one?

Water harvesting

Forest fire management

Low tillage

Costs?

Responsibilities?



Water markets


Mass movements -> infrastructure

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Landslide, mudflows, avalanche risk maps

Technical measures

(nets, fences,...)

Slope drainage

Early warning/heavy

precipitation

Risk zoning, smart

planning

Costs?

Responsibilities?



Protection forest

management


Torrential precipitation, erosion and flooding

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Decrease exposure of

infrastructure

Risk transfer mechanism

Hail nets for wine and orchards

Mulching to increase

infiltration

Increase retension

areas

Slope-parallel ploughing

Reduce sealing

Low tillage


Costs?

Responsibilities?



Remove polluting

production from floodplains

Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -1 Importance:

Capability to reduce/prevent significant or irreversible damages

and/or to protect many people?

Urgency:

Massive damages already occurring (adaptation deficit)? Long-

term measures with long handling time until measure becomes

effective?

Robustness and Flexibility:

Does the measure reflect the range of uncertainty and is it ‘no-

regret’, if the climate change is not the expected one? Might the

measure be adapted, revised or made undone at low cost?

Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -2 Synergies and conflicts with other political goals:

Capability to reduce or at least not raise GHG emissions? Cross-

sectoral synergies/conflicts? Does the measure support other

political goals such as biodiversity or social justice?

Environmental Impacts:

Does the measure help to raise resilience of ecosystem services?

Is the measure invasive for ecosystems and their services?

Social Impacts:

Does the measure help to allocate risks in a fair manner? Is it

capable to bring advantages for broad parts of society? Does the

measure tackle threats for old, chronically sick and poor people?

Possible criteria for the prioritization of adaptation measures -3

Economic reasonability:

Does the measure support the general government to get

along with their long-term fiscal goals? How is the return of

investment/long-term CBA? Is the measure cost-effective?

Feasibility:

Is the measure politically opportune? Is it accepted by the

aggrieved parties? Is the measure easy to implement (not too

many political scales/parties involved)? How about its

mainstreaming potential? Which role for CSOs?

And now: we try to assess some adaptation options with a

simplified assessment circle!