from right mogodisheng sekhwela, eagilwe segosebe, ben acquah, naomi moswete, p. kenabatho, b.p....
TRANSCRIPT
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Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability & Adaptation
Capacity in the Limpopo Basin Part of Botswana
Opha Pauline Dube
Department of Environmental science
University of Botswana
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From right Mogodisheng Sekhwela, Eagilwe Segosebe, Ben Acquah, Naomi Moswete, P. Kenabatho, B.P. Parida, seated in front, Sennye Masike and Elisha Toteng and far back, Pauline Dube.
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Aim: - Build capacity in Assessing Impacts of Climate Change
- Provide a pool of locally relevant information on:
Impacts of Climate Change on food and Water,
The degree of vulnerability & the capacity to adapt to climate change in the Limpopo basin
locally based adaptation strategies & how these can be enhance
Overall goal: Assist decision makers and international efforts to address climate change impacts, vulnerability& adaptation
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Limpopo Basin
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North East District – 11/01/01
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1915 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
Years
Ra
infa
ll(m
m)
Rainfall Mean
North East District
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Bobirwa Sub-District
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Bobonong Village
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1964 1968 1972 1976 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
Years
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Rainfall
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Kgatleng District Site
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Why Limpopo Basin?
• One of the 5 largest surface water bodies in sub-Saharan Africa found in Southern Africa - covers
3720 000 km2 of Bots., Zim., SA & Mozambique.
• Subjected to frequent climate extremes e.g.:1991/92 droughts & the 1999/2000 floods.
• Forms all river systems in eastern Botswana - Major source of water and alluvial deposits for >70% of rainfed and irrigation agriculture.
• Over half of Botswana’s population and major urban growth centres occur in the Limpopo Basin
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Crops/Forests
Livestock
Wildlife
Water Demand Valuation +
Vulnerability Assessment
Fire
Adaptation StrategiesOptions
RainfallTemp
Climate Change
Human Population
Water Supply
Land Use/CoverChange
NatureTourism
Study Components and Inter-relationships
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General Questions:
• What will be the impact of climate Change on
food and water in the Limpopo Basin?
• How vulnerable is food production/ food security
and water supply to climate change?
• What is the adaptation capacity/options for
communities in the Limpopo basin?
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Basic Approach:
• Establish past (20 years) and current status• Model future trends - 20 years - under climate change• Use findings from 1 and 2 determine vulnerability -
discuss results with communities and other stakeholders.
• Work out adaptation strategies and implementation schemes at different levels – includes active stakeholder participation.
• Communicate results widely in the basin at national, regional and international level.
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General objectives:• Establish past & present status of food (F) production,
water (W) supply & demand in the Basin• Establish past & recent responses to climate variability
in the F & W sectors. • Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on W & F using a
range of IPCC based climate & national socio-economic scenarios.
• Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin to CC on the F & W sectors
• Determine indigenous adaptation capacity & mitigation options against adverse impacts
• Contribute in increasing awareness to CC issues in southern Africa
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Acquisition of relevant local scale data – A time consuming process
• Climate data – in digital format & available within a short time - this is exceptional
• For other data sets the situation is different –
• Phane caterpiller- No production figures for such forest products - Phane export figures from Government’s Customs &
Excise Dept. are aggregated with other exported different types of small protein sources.
- Original Phane records are destroyed every 3 Yrs -lack of storage & computerisation.
• Livestock Wildlife - locality statistics is lost -Aggregates over administration regions, not in digital form are kept-Problem of a basin study – the administrative regions usually overlap with other areas outside the basin.
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Fire data - No system of archiving fire data although visual based fire
reports are made every year. - Existing records are inconsistent, incomplete in terms of seasons or for a particular fire report & available for recent years - 1996-2001- Areal extent and location of burn are only rough estimates.
0.1
5.1
10.1
15.1
20.1
25.1
Locations
Are
a b
urn
t (h
a)
hactares
Estimates of Area burnt Francistown region
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Kgatleng site fires records accessible from ARB - April-June 2002
Place Outbreak Date
Area (km)
Repoter Cause Control Remarks/
Monametsana 25-04 - Police-Mochudi
Not known
Same day- Police &Volteers
Cost-P196-putting out
Dikgonne/Masuathaga
16/05 - Police-Mochudi
Not Known
17/05-local &Botswana Police, Volteers & Wildlife employees
Cost – P7704.30 to put out
Morwa/Ditejwane
26/05 - No data Not known
Public on 27/05
-
* Current fire management systems is in-effective – If fire incidents increase in future communities will be vulnerable
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Some progress• Water supply: Past climate, evaporation and soil data assembled
and a stable research assistant secured.• Some Results: Declining trend in annual rainfall over 28 years but
no clear trend for runoff coefficient.
• Water Demand: Hardcopy information converted to digital form. Results from one site:
• Domestic sector - 50% of water demand & within this Private Connections takes over 70%
overall water demand
0
500000
1000000
1500000
Year
1992
1995
1999
years
tota
l w
ate
r d
em
an
d i
n C
ub
ic
me
ters overall water
demand
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Phane Exports inStudy Areas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999 2000 2001 2002
Production Season
Dry
Ph
an
e (t
on
s)
Bobonong
Francistown
Selibe Phikwe
Table 2. Prices of common crops (1993/94 prices) compared to Phane (1992-94)
Product Yield (kg/ha) Produce (kg) Price (P/kg) Income (P)
Sorghum (3ha) 132 400 0.39 156.00Maize (3ha) 46 138 0.36 49.68Beans (3ha) 86 258 0.85 219.30Millet (3ha) 142 426 0.31 132.06Phane 7 bags x 32 kg 224 4.71 1055.04Grapple (Devil's Claw)
Phane Caterpiller –adaptation option for periods of crop failure
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Host Mophane plant in Southern Africa
Fig. 5
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Phane caterpillar = Larvae of Imbrasia belina Westwood moth(Emperor Moth) (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae)
(Ditlhogo, 1996)
Fig. 1
**The reproduction cycle is sensitive to climate
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Vulnerability and adaptation• Eco-tourism: An MSc students works on potential of
ecotourism in the basin.
• Results- The basin is rich in cultural heritage sites but these under utilized.
- Flourishing tourism is wildlfe based -has limited direct benefit to local communities
• Institutions & Policy: Msc student focusing on: Institutional and policy framework impact on vulnerability and
adaptation capacity
• Results- Most policies do not consider vulnerability to climate. - There are some short-term drought relief schemes
implemented from time to time
- Another MSc student - Sources of rural livelihoods -
vulnerability and adaption to drought over time
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Vulnerability and adaptation sections provide a gateway to access & involving stakeholder
• Other links to stakeholders & National Communications:
• Stakeholder meeting - June 2002
• AF42 – participated in 1st Meeting of the GEF/SGP on Climate Change Networking Group linked to the National Climate Change Committee (NCCC)
• AF42 PI represents the University of Botswana (UB) at NCCC & also at the National Conservation Strategy Board
• Research Permit – comments from Office of the Presidents
• At a regional – information on AF42 disseminated via the Southern Africa Network – AF42 fire component
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Constrains
• Internet services
• IT services
• Institutional backing
• Manpower resources
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Next Focus of the study:
• Determine impacts of climate change (CC) on Water & Food Climate & socio-economic scenarios.
• Establish the level of vulnerability of Limpopo basin communities to CC on the Food & Water
• Work out adaptation strategies & mitigation options against adverse impacts