from centralised coal to decentralised renewable energy with biomass and gas as transition resources...
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From centralised coal to decentralised renewable
energy with biomass and gas as transition
resources
- a challenging transition for Poland Grzegorz Wiśniewski
Institute for Renewable Energy, Warsaw, Poland [email protected]
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Individual biomass boilers Transport fuels Electricity Heat, without individual biomass boiler
Structure of final renewable energy consumption in Poland in 2000-2010 -the role of bioenergy
Electricity generation from RES in Poland, 2001-2010
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GWh
hydro wind biogas biomass co-firing
2010 TARGET ~11,6 TWh
biomass co-firing with the fine coal in power plants dominating the green electricity mix (45%)
Appetite for additional (after 2010) biomass/arable land in the national Renewable Energy Action Plans up to 2020on average 13% of arable land for energy purposes?
EU-27 RES mix ‘2007
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Efficiency
Ocean Energy
Solar Thermal
PV
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas&oil
Coal
Nuclear
TW
h/a
Primarily energy demand by 2050
Reference/current official scenario – „business as usual”
Alternative scenario –clean energy
RES-Electricity forecast for PolandCurrent policy &Energy [R]evolution Scenario
(IEO & DLR for Greenpeace Poland ‘2008
General assumption: reduction of CO2 emission per capita form 9 ton/ca in ‘2005 to 2,5 ton/ca in ‘2050
Wind+efficiency+gas
Coal +nuclear
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Ocean Energy
Solar Thermal
PV
Geothermal
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas&oil
Coal
Nuclear
TW
h/a
Green investment in Poland by 2020Source: Polish National Renewable Action Plan up to 2020 (NREAP’2010, IEO assessment ‘2011)
RES specific investment cost [mln Euro/MW]
Euro 26 bln for smart investment ≠ „just cost”
Overused of biomass, PV and geothermal grid parity after 2020
wind supported by gas (including shell gas) as solution ?
• On-shore wind farms as alternative to biomass co-firing
• Challenge: grid connection• Small wind turbines as input or smart grids, starting
from rural areal/farmers• Challenge: access to the grid and lack of
technologies• Off-shore wind farms as alternative to nuclear
• Challenge: competition with the nuclear option supported so far by state policy
Does the wind resources (supported by green energy mix) can deliver energy for the industry, cities and rural areal?
Energy consumption for agricultural production; electricity consumption, prices and growth in Poland/regions
The energy consumption in agricultural sector in Poland increased significantly (over 30% per year)
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Energy price (PLN/MWh)
Electricity prices for farmers [PLZ/kWh], 1€≈4 PLZ
Costs of energy supply in households and agricultural
households in Poland
Energy prices for (small) consumers in rural areas growing faster then in other sectors and costs of energy supply on farms (agricultural households) increase faster than in other households=> On shore wind farms can increase the income (leasing land) & small wind turbines can reduce the spendings for electricity from the grid
www.ieo.pl
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Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Russ ia
Sweden
Installations until 2020 Installations 2020-2030
Offshore wind energy market potential on Baltic Sea, 2030 (source: EU OffshoreGrid project)
•Significant potential of Sweden and Poland, possible to utilize after 2020
„How many roads must a man walk downBefore you call him a man? (…)
How many years can a mountain existBefore it’s washed to the sea?…
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the windThe answer is blowin’ in the wind”
By Bob Dylan, Copyright © 1962 by Warner Bros
Challenging and time demanding energy transition - Bob Dylan song instead of concussion: