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From Analog to Digital –

Global Earth Observation

and International

Collaboration to Manage

Mega Disasters

October 2011Dr. Janice ZiarkoThe MITRE Corporation

The MITRE Corporation Copyright @ 2011

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Dr. Janice A. Ziarko

jziarko@mitre.org

Dr. Ziarko is the MITRE Institute’s Technical Program Asst. Manager, and the Program Manager for

MITRE’s Federal Employee Fellowship Program, SEworks Program, and on-site JHU MSSE Degree

Program. The MITRE Institute is the corporate education, training, and professional development

group operating under the auspices of Human Resources at The MITRE Corporation, which manages

Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs). She is responsible for developing

and delivering programs to meet the systems engineering and technological needs of the Corporation.

Her work and academic experience includes more than 30 years of program management and

advanced research projects for Treasury/IRS, DoD (OSD, Army, Navy), NASA, EPA, GSA, Department

of Interior, and the USPS. She teaches systems engineering at the Johns Hopkins University Applied

Physics Laboratory, Whiting School of Engineering. Dr. Ziarko holds a M.S. in Information Systems and

a Ph.D. in Public Administration from American University in Washington D.C. concentrating on

Technology Transfer, Open Systems, and Science and Technology Policy.

©2011-The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved

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What happened to this civilization?

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Was it drought?

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The BIG picture today

6First Photo from Space – October 24, 1946

V2, White Sands Missile Range, Applied Physics Lab

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In the Last 50 Years…

• We engineered space systems that changed the

world

• We created a capability to observe the Earth as a

complex, dynamic system

• We changed through seeing the Earth from space

(Overview Effect)

• We built systems for Global Earth Observation

• We began to implement a collaborative System of

Systems for Earth Observation

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Tomorrow – A View of the Earth from Mars?

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How can Earth Observation inform us?

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Earth Observation – Image of the Japan 2011 Tsunami

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Earth’s Radiation

Natural Mega Disasters

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Extinction

Event

14Global Ice Age

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Asteroid Impact!

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Yellowstone

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Explosion

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Super

Volcano!

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Hypercane

20Superstorms

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1931 Yellow River Flood

400,000 up to 4 Million Lives Lost ???

22Earthquake

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2004 Indian Ocean

Mega Tsunami

250,000 Lives Lost

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Mega Tsunami Today in Japan?

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Future New York

Mega Tsunami?

Unintended Mega Disasters

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Famine

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Nuclear

Meltdown

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PANDEMIC

Man-Made Mega Disasters

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Biological and

Chemical

Threats

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Nuclear Bomb

Threats

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World War?

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Cybernetic

Revolt?

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Danger,

Will

Robinson

!!!!!!!!!!!

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For the Future…

Challenges in the

Face of Mega

Disasters• Complex Socio-Technical

Problems

• International, National, and

Regional Politics

• Small Budgets, Tight Schedules,

and other Priorities

• Complex Operational Issues

• Technical Maturity

• Modeling Complexity and Causal

Networks

• Managing Global Catastrophic

Risk

• And more…37

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New Models and Thinking

What do we value?

How will we change the way we do things?

Collaborate to Manage Disasters and Build

Earth Observation Systems

• For government, businesses, and individuals,

mindsets can be changed

• For Earth observation, a mosaic of

interconnected and interoperable complex

systems can be engineered and matured

• For humanity, we can invest in worthwhile

efforts to save lives and mitigate the impact of

socio-economic disasters

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We will create innovative practices to

predict and manage mega disasters

References1. Bostrom, Nick and Milan Circovik, Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford University Press, 2008.

2. Group on Earth Observations (GEO) March 2010, http://www.earthobservations.org/ and

http://usgeo.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=34&Itemid=55 .

3. GEO Secretariat, Information Brochure, Group on Earth Observations, Switzerland, April 2009..

http://www.earthobservations.org/documents/200904_geo_info_sheets.pdf

4. GEO Web Site, http://www.earthobservations.org/geoss_di_ea.shtml 2011.

5. GEOSS 10 Year Implementation Plan, Section 4.1.1, http://www.earthobservations.org/documents/10-

Year%20Implementation%20Plan.pdf 2011.

6. Goldsmith, Stephen and William Eggers, Governing by Network, Brookings Institute, 2004.

7. Haimes, Yacov Y. Models for risk management of systems of systems, Center for Risk Management of Engineering

Systems, University of Virginia, Int. J. System of Systems Engineering, Vol. 1, Nos. 1/2, 2008.

http://www.inderscience.com/storage/f211356108112947.pdf

8. Jenkins, Steven . "A Future for Systems Engineering Tools" (PDF). NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of

Technology, pp.15, April 2005. http://www.marc.gatech.edu/events/pde2005/presentations/0.2-jenkins.pdf.

9. Kramer, Herbert J., Observation of the Earth and its Environment – Survey of Missions and Sensors, Springer Verlaf, 4th

ed., 2002.

10. The National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Earth Observations from Space – The First 50 Years of

Scientific Achievements, National Academy Press, Washington. D.C., 2007.

11. Ramo, Simon and Robin K. St. Clair, The Systems Approach: Fresh Solutions to Complex Problems Through Combining

Science and Practical Common Sense, Anaheim, CA: KNI, Inc, 1998.

http://www.incose.org/ProductsPubs/DOC/SystemsApproach.pdf.

12. United Nations, http://www.un-spider.org/guide-en/4854/sentinel-asia , 2011.

13. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), March 2010 http://www.epa.gov/GEOSS/role.html

14. White, Frank, The Overview Effect: Space Exploration and Human Evolution, Library of Flight Series, AIAA, 1st Edition

1987, 2nd edition 1998.

15. Zurich News Release, http://www.zurichna.com/zna/media/news-releases/current-releases/megadisasters.htm, 2011.

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