friends of the bighorn river...friends of the bighorn river. next steps develop inflow deciles based...

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Friends of the Bighorn River Friends of the Bighorn River Reservoir Simulator bighornriver.org Doug Haacke Spring 2009

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Page 1: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Simulator

bighornriver.org

Doug HaackeSpring 2009

Page 2: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Simulator

Why do this?

Page 3: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Simulator

Why do this?

Page 4: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Simulator

Why do this?

1. Get a better understanding of the process.

Page 5: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Simulator

Why do this?

1. Get a better understanding of the process.

2. Use any knowledge gained to become an assetto the process rather than a bystander.

Page 6: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Simulator

Why do this?

1. Get a better understanding of the process.

3. With luck, create something useful.

2. Use any knowledge gained to become an assetto the process rather than a bystander.

Page 7: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Getting started

Page 8: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Getting started

Start with rock solid documentation

Page 9: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Getting started

Page 10: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

What parameters are required to model foreither lake elevation or river discharge?

Page 11: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

What parameters are required to model foreither lake elevation or river discharge?

What data is readily available to use?

Page 12: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 13: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN

IN = Inflows as cubic feet per second (CFS).Bighorn, Shoshone, tribs, precipitation, runoff, etc.

Page 14: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN

AF = Storage as acre feet (af).Calculated from a capacity table where acre feet of storage equates to a specific elevation.

AF

Page 15: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN

QD = Total Discharge as cfsThe total releases from Yellowtail Dam.

AFQD

Page 16: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN

CHSTOR = Daily mean change in storage in af.Afterbay daily mean change in storage.

AFQD

CHSTOR

Page 17: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN

QRD = River releases in cfs.

AFQD

CHSTORQRD

Page 18: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN

QJ = Canal releases in cfs.

AFQD

CHSTORQRD

QJ

Page 19: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

With river and canal releases being known:Calculate the QD (Total Discharge)QD = (QRD + QJ) + (CHSTOR / 1.983471074)

Note: 1 cfs for 1 day = 1.983471074 acre feet

IN AFQD

CHSTORQRD

QJ

Solving for Lake Elevation

Page 20: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

Now, with QD being known, calc the lake elevation:AF = AF + ((IN - QD) * 1.983471074)

IN AFQD

CHSTORQRD

QJ

Solving for Lake Elevation

Page 21: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 22: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Error:130af / day

Page 23: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Dramatization

Page 24: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Dramatization

Page 25: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN AFQD

CHSTORQRD

QJ

ACC

ACC = Accretions (springs)130af into the Afterbay!

Solving for Lake Elevation

Page 26: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Reservoir Parameters

IN AFQD

CHSTORQRD

QJ

ACC

Now, with QD being known, calc the lake elevation:AF = AF + ((IN - QD) * 1.983471074) + ACC

Solving for Lake Elevation

Page 27: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 28: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Page 29: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Criteria

Page 30: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Criteria

Use a simple, familiar user interface

Page 31: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Criteria

Use a simple, familiar user interface

Use a dynamic database

Page 32: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Criteria

Use a simple, familiar user interface

Use a dynamic database

Use real time and historical data

Page 33: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Criteria

Use a simple, familiar user interface

Use a dynamic database

Use real time and historical data

Allow the user to input custom criteria

Page 34: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Web interface. Works with any browser that supports Javascript

Implementation

Page 35: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Web interface. Works with any browser that supports Javascript

SQL Server Database

Implementation

Page 36: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Coding the Simulator

Implementation

Web interface. Works with any browser that supports Javascript

SQL Server Database

BOR Hydromet data

Page 37: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Step One

Page 38: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Step Two

Page 39: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Step Three

Page 40: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Step Four

Page 41: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 42: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 43: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 44: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 45: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Page 46: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Page 47: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Page 48: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Similar to (but less boring than) accounting

Page 49: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Similar to (but less boring than) accounting

Inflows drive everything!

Page 50: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Similar to (but less boring than) Accounting

Inflows drive everything!

70% of inflows come from Boysen/Buffalo Bill

Page 51: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Similar to (but less boring than) Accounting

Inflows drive everything!

70% of inflows come from Boysen/Buffalo Bill Good coordination/cooperation absolutely essential

Page 52: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Similar to (but less boring than) Accounting

Inflows drive everything!

70% of inflows come from Boysen/Buffalo Bill Good coordination/cooperation absolutely essential

Better understanding of how to develop and implementrule curves

Page 53: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

What was learned / gained

Modeling is complicated, but not overly so

Similar to (but less boring than) Accounting

Inflows drive everything!

70% of inflows come from Boysen/Buffalo Bill Good coordination/cooperation absolutely essential

Better understanding of how to develop and implementrule curves

Appreciation for the efforts of MTAO

Page 54: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Next Steps

Page 55: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Next Steps

Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data

Page 56: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Next Steps

Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data

Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data availableonline with other HydroMet data

Page 57: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Next Steps

Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data

Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data availableonline with other HydroMet data

Develop rule curves for VARQ modeling

Page 58: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Next Steps

Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data

Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data availableonline with other HydroMet data

Develop rule curves for VARQ modeling

Fully test the VARQ strategy online and live

Page 59: Friends of the Bighorn River...Friends of the Bighorn River. Next Steps Develop inflow deciles based on historical inflow data Work with BOR to make inflow forecast data available

Friends of the Bighorn RiverFriends of the Bighorn River

Special thanks!

Brian Marotz, FWPKen Frazer, FWPJim Darling, FWP

Tim Felchle, BORGordon Aycock, BOR

http://bighornriver.org