fraser valley housing outlook -...
TRANSCRIPT
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Fraser Valley Housing Outlook
Robyn AdamachePrincipal, CMHC Market Analysis (Vancouver)
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
Housing Market Information PortalThe housing data you want, the way you want it
4 Ways to Access Info:
Snapshots of Local,
Regional, and National
data.
Compare statistics for
multiple locations.
Comprehensive tables,
map and charts.
Current and archived
CMHC publications.
cmhc.ca/hmiportal
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2015 and 2016 Outlook: The Big Picture
Housing Demand Drivers:
Mortgage rates to stay low and stable
Moderate growth in economy and jobs
Population growing
Housing Market:
Home building geared to population-based
demand
Resale markets will become more balanced
Strong demand for rental accommodation
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Delta
530
Fraser Valley
8,510
S Surrey /
White Rock
1,110
Surrey 2,760
Langley
1,320Abbotsford
790
Mission 320 Chilliwack
580
Projected Annual Household Formation
8,510 New Fraser Valley Households Each Year
Source: B.C. Stats P.E.O.P.L.E. 2014. CMHC calculation average number new households per year 2014 -
2019
Ridge Meadows
320
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0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 ytd 2015 ytd
Single Detached Multiple Unit Household Growth
Source: BC Stats, CMHC, Starts and Completions Survey, YTD = Jan – May,
Fraser Valley includes: Chilliwack, Abbotsford-Mission, Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows, Langley, Surrey, White
Rock, & Delta
2004 2006 2012
Household Growth Outpaces New Home Building
Fraser Valley Housing Starts
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Standing Inventory Moderate
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Chilliwack
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Unsold Apartment Inventory Elevated
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Abbotsford-Mission
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Apartment Inventory High, but Trending Down
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
ApartmentRidge Meadows
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Standing Inventory Normalizes
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Langley
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Standing Inventory Trending Lower
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Surrey
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Standing Inventory Scarce
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
White Rock
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Apartment and House Inventories Elevated
Source: CMHC Market Absorption Survey
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
House
Town House
Apartment
Delta
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0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Condo/Town House House
Buyers’ Market
FVREB MLS® Sales to Active Listings Ratio (%), (3 Mo Avg)
Source: Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, CMHC Calculation, May 2015 latest data point
Balanced
Market
Sellers’ Market
Fraser Valley Detached Home Market Heats Up
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Gap Between House and Condo Prices Widens
Source: Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, Data end point May 2015
MLS® Benchmark Prices, Fraser Valley
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single
Detached
$602K
Town House
$303K
Apartment
$193K
$522K
$318K
$225K
Gap ≈ $300-
400KGap ≈ $200-
300K
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Rental Markets Solid
Source: CMHC, Rental Market Survey, Condo Vacancy Survey, Oct 2014
% of Condo Stock in Rental Pool
North
Shore
19%Downtown
42%Suburban
21%City of Van
22%
FV
23%
Half of renters live in secondary rental accommodation
Vacancies move lower
Investors provide rental supply
3.6%
1.5%
2.5%
2.6%
2.8%
3.1%
0.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Delta
W Rock
Surrey
Langley
Ridge…
Abb-Mission
Metro Van
Suburban Van
Fraser Valley
Purpose-built
Rental Apt
Rental Condo Apt
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Tourism Victoria
Wrap Up
New home construction to remain stable
Resales expected to moderate
Price growth will slow in 2016
Strong rental demand
Wrap Up
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Seniors living longer, healthier lives(especially men!)
Big Question
How will Baby Boomers behave in their “retirement” years?
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Robyn Adamache
604-737-4144
Thank You!!
cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation
cmhc.ca/hmiportal