Foster Care ReentryGoing Beyond 12 Months of Follow-up

Terry V. Shaw, MSW, PhDDaniel Webster, MSW, PhD

University of California, BerkeleySchool of Social Welfare

This research is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

Presented at the 46th Annual National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics (NAWRS) Workshop.

August 23, 2006

For an Electronic Copy of Presentation:

http://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSreports/presentations/

Research on Reentry to Care

• Length of Time in Care prior to Reunification. • Type of placement a child experiences in foster care.• Number of placements while in foster care.• Race/Ethnicity of the Child.• Age of child at entry into foster care. • Reason for removal or entry into the foster care system.• Caregiver Drug/Alcohol use.• Poverty status (children receiving AFDC).• Marital status (single or multi-parent homes).• Geographic location (urban/rural).• Child health factors.

Study Population

• First Entries to Child Welfare Supervised Foster Care in California (1998-2001).

• Initial stays greater than 5 days.• Children reunifying within 12 months of initial

entry into foster care.• Missing placement types excluded.• Question: Are there differences between the

children reentering care within 12 months and those reentering care from 12 to 24 months?

Full Model Used for Analysis included…

Ethnicity, Gender, Entry Year,

Age at Entry, Length of time in Care, Reason for removal,

County Size, Presence of siblings, AFDC eligible,

Predominant placement type,

Child’s Health/Behavior conditions,

Whether the parents have a referral to a drug/alcohol treatment program,

Whether the child was removed from a single or multi-parent household,

Primary language spoken at home.

Total Reunification in 12 Months 35,822 100.00 4,466 100.00 1,508 100.00Race White 13,219 36.90 1,807 40.46 574 38.06

Black 6,204 17.32 963 21.56 320 21.22Hispanic 14,063 39.26 1,500 33.59 543 36.01Asian 1,504 4.20 116 2.60 37 2.45Native American 457 1.28 72 1.61 33 2.19Other 375 1.05 8 0.18 1 0.07

Gender Female 18,135 50.63 2,295 51.39 753 49.93Male 17,685 49.37 2,171 48.61 754 50.00

Entry Year Entry Year = 1998 8,404 23.46 1,049 23.49 390 25.86Entry Year = 1999 8,930 24.93 1,040 23.29 382 25.33Entry Year = 2000 8,991 25.10 1,174 26.29 347 23.01Entry Year = 2001 9,497 26.51 1,203 26.94 389 25.80

Age at Entry Less than 1 year 5,476 15.29 901 20.17 306 20.291 to 2 years 5,302 14.80 714 15.99 278 18.443 to 5 years 6,909 19.29 833 18.65 287 19.036 to 10 years 10,114 28.23 1,089 24.38 394 26.1311 to 13 years 5,010 13.99 606 13.57 165 10.9414 to 15 years 3,011 8.41 323 7.23 78 5.17

Length of Stay LOS: 0 to 3 months 20,374 56.88 2,845 63.70 845 56.03LOS: 3 to 6 months 4,836 13.50 629 14.08 196 13.00LOS: 6 to 9 months 6,509 18.17 616 13.79 334 22.15LOS: 9 to 12 months 4,635 12.94 431 9.65 165 10.94

% of total

% of total

% of total

Children Reentering Care

n n n

Reunified in 12 within 12 Months between 12 & 24 Mo

Frequencies – Reunifications and Reentries

Neglect 23,040 64.32 3,324 74.43 1,154 76.53Physical Abuse 7,663 21.39 666 14.91 216 14.32Sexual Abuse 2,870 8.01 234 5.24 53 3.51Other Abuse 2,249 6.28 242 5.42 85 5.64

County Size County Size: Big 29,382 82.02 4,024 90.10 1,338 88.73County Size: LA 1,097 3.06 225 5.04 52 3.45County Size: Small 5,343 14.92 217 4.86 118 7.82Predominant: Kin 10,871 30.35 1,078 24.14 407 26.99Predominant: Foster 10,071 28.11 1,545 34.59 558 37.00Predominant: FFA 6,861 19.15 937 20.98 301 19.96Predominant: Court 181 0.51 20 0.45 12 0.80Predominant: Group 2,133 5.95 314 7.03 66 4.38Predominant: Shelter 3,720 10.38 397 8.89 104 6.90Predominant: Guaridan 235 0.66 24 0.54 10 0.66Predominant: Other 207 0.58 27 0.60 7 0.46Predominant: Missing 1,541 4.30 124 2.78 43 2.85condition_none 33,010 92.15 3,583 80.23 1,222 81.03Condition - Behavioral 228 0.64 76 1.70 23 1.53Condition - Mental Health 1,408 3.93 541 12.11 155 10.28Condition - Physical 1,496 4.18 409 9.16 140 9.28Condition - Drug/Alcohol 104 0.29 30 0.67 13 0.86condition 2,812 7.85 883 19.77 286 18.97

Other siblings 23,529 65.68 2,978 66.68 1,060 70.29Title IVe eligible 13,505 37.70 2,507 56.14 831 55.11Drug Alc. Services 14,189 39.61 2,597 58.15 965 63.99Single Parent 26,944 75.22 3,671 82.20 1,155 76.59Primary Language 5,718 15.96 381 8.53 149 9.88

Health Conditions

Reason for Removal

Predominant Placement

% of total

% of total

% of total

Children Reentering Care

n n n

Reunified in 12 within 12 Months between 12 & 24 Mo

Frequencies – Reunifications and Reentries

Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival)Children Reunifying within 12 months

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102

12.28%

16.65%

Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) by LOS Children Reunifying within 12 months

Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102

0-3 months 3-6 months 6-9 months 9-12 months

Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) by Ethnicity Children Reunifying within 12 months

Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102

Black White Hispanic Asian Native American Other

Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) by Age Group Children Reunifying within 12 months

Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102

Less than 1 1 to 2 3 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 13 14 to 15

1.00

1.23

ns

ns

ns

0.35

1.00

1.31

ns

ns

ns

0.38

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

Native American

Other/Missing

Reentrywithin 12 mos.

Reentry12 to 24 mos.

Odds of Reentry - Ethnicity

Odds of Reentry – Length of time in Care

0 to 3 Months

3 to 6 Months

6 to 9 Months

9 to 12 Months

Reentrywithin 12 mos.

Reentry12 to 24 mos.

1.00

0.79

0.61

0.63

1.00

ns

ns

0.68

Odds of Reentry – Age at EntryReentry

within 12 mos.Reentry

12 to 24 mos.

Less than 1 Year

1 to 2 Years

3 to 5 Years

6 to 10 Years

11 to 13 Years

14 to 15 Years

1.00

ns

0.88

0.89

ns

ns

1.00

ns

0.83

ns

ns

0.80*

* Significant at the 0.1 level

Odds of Reentry – Other FactorsReentry

within 12 mos.Reentry

12 to 24 mos.

2.29

1.89

1.83

1.42

Drug/Alc. Serv.

Title IVE Eligible.

Condition MH

Condition Physical

Condition Behavioral

1.98

2.11

1.55

1.23

1.29* 1.52*

* Significant at the 0.1 level

nsSingle Parent

1.15

Conclusions• Before finalizing models, we will explore issue of

potential bias introduced by stages of incidental selectivity (Berk & Ray, 1982).

• Some differences exist in the children that reenter care between 0-12 months and 12-24 months.

• African American children are 1.23 times more likely to reenter care within 12 months and 1.32 times more likely to reenter care between 12 and 24 months compared to white children.

• A longer stay in care initially is protective for reentries within 12 months (The shorter the initial stay in care the higher the likelihood of reentry). Only children in care for 9 or more months have a significantly lower odds of reentry for reentries between 12 and 24 months.

Conclusions (continued)

• Children between the ages of 3 and 10 have lower odds of reentry within 12 months compared to infants. This is somewhat different when looking at reentries between 12 and 24 months, only ages 3-5 have lower odds of reentry compared to infants.

• If drug/alcohol services are indicated then there is almost 2X the odds of reentry within 12 months. These odds are even higher 2.55 between 12 and 24 months.

• Children with existing health/behavioral/mental health issues have higher odds of reentering foster care in both periods, but the odds are greater in the 12 to 24 month group.

The End!

Center for Social Services Research Web Pagehttp://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSReports

Terry V. Shaw – tvshaw@berkeley.edu(510) 643 - 2585

Daniel Webster – dwebster@berkeley.edu