Foster Care Reentry after Reunification – Reentry in One or

Two years – what’s the difference?

Terry V. Shaw, MSWDaniel Webster, PhD

University of California, BerkeleySchool of Social Welfare

This research is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation

Presented Tuesday, August 30, 2005 at the 45th Annual National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics Workshop.

Outline1. Brief overview of federal outcome

measures related to reentries.

2. Overview of prior research on foster care reentries.

3. Discussion of the population and methods used for this project.

4. Examination of the results.

5. Conclusions

Outcomes, outcomes, everywhere(or why bother looking at reentry?)

There have been multiple instances of federal

legislation calling for the development of

Child Welfare outcome measures.

• Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA)

ASFA (the Adoption and Safe Families Act)mandated that outcome reports be given toCongress.• Reduce recurrence of child abuse and/or neglect, • Reduce the incidence of child abuse and/or neglect in foster

care,• Increase permanency for children in foster care,• Reduce time in foster care to reunification without

increasing re-entry,• Reduce time in foster care to adoption,• Increase placement stability, and• Reduce placements of young children in group homes or

institutions.

Outcomes, outcomes … continued

• Statewide Data Indicators in Child and Family Services Reviews (a subset of the Annual Outcomes)

• We want to ensure that children are in safe and stable homes. Reentering care is a sign that the reunification was not optimal.

Outcomes, outcomes … continued

Foster Care ReentriesDoes not follow children through care from their initial entry to the reunification and then to reentry.

The federal measure does not look at reentries after 12 months even though Reentry continues to occur well after 12 months.

Longitudinal alternative:For all children who enter care and are reunified, what percent reenter within 3 months, 12 months, 24 months after reunification?

Festinger, T. (1994). Returning to Care: Discharge and Reentry into Foster Care. Washington, DC: Child Welfare League of America.

Previous Research on Reentry to CareAuthors and Articles

Courtney, Mark E. (1994). "Factors Associated with the Reunification of Foster Children with Their Families." Social Service Review 68 (1): 81-108

Wulczyn, Fred (1991). "Caseload Dynamics and Foster Care Reentry." Social Service Review 65: 133-156.

Frame, L., Berrick, J.D., Brodowski, M.L.  (2000) “Understanding reentry to foster care for reunified infants.”  Child Welfare, 79 (4), pp. 339-369 .

Frame, L., (2002) “Maltreatment reports and placement outcomes for infants and toddlers in out-of-home care.”  Infant Mental Health Journal, 23 (5), pp. 517-540 .

Wells, Kathleen and Shenyang Guo (1999) “Reunification and Reentry of Foster Children.” Children and Youth Services Review, 21 (4): 273-294

Research on Reentry to Care

• Length of Time in Care prior to Reunification.

• Type of placement a child experiences in foster care.

• Number of placements while in foster care.

• Race/Ethnicity of the Child.

• Age of child at entry into foster care.

Research on Reentry (continued…)

• Reason for removal from home or entry into the foster care system.

• Caregiver Drug/Alcohol use.• Poverty status (children receiving AFDC).• Marital status (single or multi-parent

homes).• Geographic location (urban/rural).• Child health factors.

Study Population

• First Entries to Child Welfare Supervised Foster Care in California (1998-2001).

• Initial stays greater than 5 days.• Children reunifying within 12 months of initial

entry into foster care.• Missing placement types excluded.• Question: Are there differences between the

children reentering care within 12 months and those reentering care from 12 to 24 months?

Limitations

• The data for this study is based on an administrative data system.

• Measures of drug/alcohol services only examine recommended services, not whether the services were used.

Results

• Sibling correction was used allowing for the inclusion of all siblings in a sibling group.

• Adjustments in standard errors made by using GEE (Generalized Estimating Equations) as part of a logistic regression analysis.

• Adjusts the standard errors to account for potential correlation due to clustered data – in this case due to sibling groups.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.500 3 6 9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

81

84

87

90

93

96

99

10

2

Weeks

0.133 at 1 Year

0.176 at 2 years

Cumulative Probability of Reentry Curve - Children Reunifying within 12 months

Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.500 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102

Week

0-3 Months 3-6 Months 6-9 Months 9-12 Months

Cumulative Probability of Reentry Curve by LOS - Children Reunifying within 12 months

Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.500 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102

Age lt 1 Ages 1-2 Ages 3-5 Ages 6-10 Ages 11-13 Ages 14-15

Cumulative Probability of Reentry Curve by Age Group - Children Reunifying within 12 months

Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

1.00

1.14

ns

ns

ns

0.39

1.00

1.20

ns

ns

ns

0.52

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian

Native American

Other

Reentrywithin 12 mos.

Reentry12 to 24 mos.

Odds of Reentry - Ethnicity

Odds of Reentry – Length of time in Care

0 to 3 Months

3 to 6 Months

6 to 9 Months

9 to 12 Months

Reentrywithin 12 mos.

Reentry12 to 24 mos.

1.00

0.81

0.59

0.60

1.00

ns

ns

0.65

Odds of Reentry – Age at Entry

Reentrywithin 12 mos.

Reentry12 to 24 mos.

Less than 1 Year

1 to 2 Years

3 to 5 Years

6 to 10 Years

11 to 13 Years

14 to 15 Years

1.00

ns

0.88

0.89

ns

ns

1.00

0.88

0.86

ns

ns

0.72

Odds of Reentry – Other Factors

No Drug/Alc Serv.

Drug/Alc. Serv.

Entry Rate (CT)

Below Pov. (CT)

Reentrywithin 12 mos.

Reentry12 to 24 mos.

1.00

2.13

1.04

0.99

1.00

2.38

1.05

ns

Conclusions

• Differences exist in the children that reenter care between 0-12 months and 12-24 months.

• African American children are 1.14 times more likely to reenter care within 12 months and 1.2 times more likely to reenter care between 12 and 24 months compared to white children.

• A longer stay in care initially is protective for reentries within 12 months (The shorter the initial stay in care the higher the likelihood of reentry). Only children in care for 9 or more months have a significantly lower odds of reentry for reentries between 12 and 24 months.

Conclusions (continued)

• Children between the ages of 3 and 10 have lower odds of reentry within 12 months compared to infants. This is somewhat different when looking at reentries between 12 and 24 months, ages 3-5 and ages 14 and 15 have lower odds of reentry compared to infants.

• If drug/alcohol services are indicated then there is over 2X the odds of reentry within 12 months. These odds are even higher 2.38 between 12 and 24 months.

• A 10% increase in the entry rate for the census tract that the child was removed from is related to an increase in the odds of reentry at both time periods.

The End!

Terry V. Shaw – tvshaw@berkeley.edu

(510) 643 - 2585

Center for Social Services Research Web Pagehttp://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSReports