fossil fuels: present situation and future developments in ... · developments in a carbon...

© Dirección de Tecnología Repsol YPF S.A. July 2011

Fossil Fuels: present situation and future developments in a Carbon Constrained WorldJavier ArízteguiSenior Technologist

Basque Centre for Climate ChangeSummer School 2011

Adaptation to Climate Change: An essential part of Climate Change PolicyJuly 2011

2© Dirección de Tecnología Repsol YPF S.A. July 2011

Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives

• Boundary conditions

• Biofuels

• What is the oil sector doing?

• Mainstream fuels

• Energies for niche markets

• Future developments


Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives


• Biofuels





Future challenges for energy

• Growing demand to provide social and economical welfare around the world• Growth driven by non-OECD countries• Transport sector dominated by oil products in the near future


Energy demand forecast


Source : BP (2011) BP Energy Outlook 2030



• Crude oil in difficult places



Area Reserves (billions of barrels)

Share(%)

Middle East(Saudi Arabia)

752.5(264.5)

54.4(19.1)

Former USSR 125.4 9.1

Europe 14.2 1.0

Asia-Pacific 45.2 3.3

Africa 132.1 9.5

N America 74.3 5.4

S & C America 239.4 17.3

TOTAL 1383.2 100.0

Countries belonging to OPEC: 76.1%

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

Crude oil reserves at end of 2010

54.4 %



• Crude oil in difficult places

• Growing concerns about climate change require a decarbonisation of the energy supply• Transport sector major contributor to GHG emissions• Transport sector increasing its contribution and its share of

GHG emission in UE



GHG emissions

Source: IPCC (2007)


GHG: well to wheels balance

Final energy

Well-to-Tank WtT

Primary energy

Tank-to-Wheels TtW

Well-to-Wheels WtW

Energy source Transformation Transport & distribution

Application


GHG: emissions from transport in the UE

• In the European Union (UE-15) during 2009 (TtW data):• Transport responsible for 21 % of GHG emissions (26 % Spain)• 93 % of those emissions come from road transport (91 % Spain)

• Transport is the only sector with emissions increasing in the UESource: EEA (2011) - Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2009 and inventory report 2011

Source: EEA (2009) - Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2009


Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives


• Biofuels





Objectives

• Supply the growing demand of energy for transport in a secure and affordable way• Diversify sources of energy • Diversify origins of those sources

• Reduce the carbon footprint of energy for transport• Taking into account well to wheels analyses



Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives


• Biofuels





• Conclusions

Boundary conditions

• Energy demand for transport is sizeable• In Spain, transport accounts for 38.8 % of final energy demand


Source: MITYC (2010). La energía en España 2009

33.3 %

38.8 %

28.0%

IndustryTransportOthers

Boundary conditions


• Backwards compatibility with existing fleet of vehicles• In Spain, 29.8 million vehicles at end of 2009

16© Dirección de Tecnología Repsol YPF S.A. July 2011Source: DGT (2010). Anuario estadístico general 2009

Boundary conditions



• Limits for regulated emissions of vehicles must be fulfilled


0

50

100

150

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0

500

1000

1500

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2500

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1992 1996 2000 2005 2009 2014

PM in

NED

C (m

g/km

)

CO

, HC

& N

Ox

in N

EDC

(mg/

km)

Year of first homologation

Homologation limits for M1 Diesel vehicles

CO (mg/km) HC+NOx (mg/km) NOx (mg/km) PM (mg/km)

Euro

1

Euro

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Euro

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0

50

100

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200

250

300

0

500

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1992 1996 2000 2005 2009 2014

HC

, NO

x &

PM

in N

EDC

(mg/

km)

CO

& H

C+N

Ox

in N

EDC

(mg/

km)

Year of first homologation

Homologation limits for M1 Otto vehicles

CO (mg/km) HC+NOx (mg/km) HC (mg/km) NOx (mg/km) PM (mg/km)

Euro

1

Euro

2

Euro

3

Euro

4

Euro

5

Euro

6

Boundary conditions



• Limits for regulated emissions of vehicles must be fulfilled

• Regulation to introduce biofuels in Europe (and Spain)• In the UE, mandatory objective of 10 %e/e of biofuels in 2020• In Spain, stringent requirements for the period 2011-2013


• Real Decreto 1738/2010 sets mandatory objectives globallyand per fuel

• Real Decreto 459/2011 (1st April) increases the objectives setby RD 1738/2010

2011 2012 2013

Global biofuel objective 5.9 % 6.0 % 6.1 %

Biofuel objective in diesel fuel 3.9 % 4.1 % 4.1 %

Biofuel objective in gasoline 3.9 % 4.1 % 4.1 %

19

2011 2012 2013

Global biofuel objective 6.2 % 6.5 % 6.5 %

Biofuel objective in diesel fuel 6.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 %

Biofuel objective in gasoline 3.9 % 4.1 % 4.1 %

Biofuels in Spain


Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives


• Biofuels





Biofuels rationale


• Fuels obtained from vegetables o animals (renewable)• Biofuels at full marketing scale

• Biodiesel (Fatty acid methyl ester, FAME) • Bioethanol (Ethyl Alcohol from carbohydrates)

• Biofuels at small marketing scale• Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)

• Biofuels at R&D scale• Synthetic renewable diesel (BtL, Sunfuel)• Lignocellulosic bioethanol

• CO2 production during use largely neutralised by CO2 capture due to photosynthesis processes

• Miscible with conventional fuels (gasoline or diesel)

Biofuels characteristics

• Transesterification of fatty acids

* FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Esters)** FAEE (Fatty Acid Ethyl Esters)


•Vegetable oils•New•Recycled

•Animal fats•Fish oils•Algae oils

Alcohol

Feedstock

•Methanol•Ethanol

Transesterificationprocess

Fatty acid esters•Methyl (FAME*)•Ethyl (FAEE**)

Glycerine

Biodiesel production

• Fermentation of biomass with high contents of sugar or starch


•Grape•Beetroot•Sugar cane

Starch way

Sugar way

•Cereals•Tubers

Fermentationand distillation Bioethanol

Conversionpretreatment

Bioethanol production


Well to wheels analysis

neutral

Source: JEC (2008). Well-to-wheels analysis of future automotive fuels and powertrains in the European context


HVO production

• Hydrogenation of oils in dedicated units or in conventional refinery units (HDS, FCC)

•Vegetable oils•New•Recycled

•Animal fats•Fish oils•Algae oils

Hydrogen

Feedstock

Hydrogenationprocess

Diesel

Gas (propane)

Heat

Gasoline

Water

IsomerizationKerosene



neutral



Lignocellulosic biofuels

• The use of lignocellulosic biomass to produce synthetic diesel or ethanol is still at R&D or demonstration stage

• Lignocellulosic biomass enables a better utilization of available biomass (3 times better than conventional biofuels)


Feedstock• Straw• Forest residues• Sawmill residues• Farming residues

BtL(Sunfuel)

Lignocellulosic biofuels production

Synthesis gas

Feedstock• Straw• Forest residues• Black liquor

BioethanolConversion pretreatment Hydrolisis Fermentation

GasificationOxygen or

steam reforming

Upgrading(Hydrocracking)

Fischer-Tropschprocess

• BtL (biomass to liquid): Renewable synthetic diesel

• Lignocellulosic ethanol



neutral



Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives


• Biofuels





• Admixtures of conventional fuels with bioethanol and FAME• Low concentration of biofuels for backwards compatibility

• Today 7 %v/v of FAME in diesel and 5 %v/v of bioethanol in gasoline• Due to massive demand, it amounts to massive volumes of biofuels

• Necessary agreement of all stakeholders• Authorities, car manufacturers and oil suppliers• Negotiations at CEN level


Mainstream fuels

Candidates:• Bioethanol E85

• Low cost adaptation from a conventional Otto engine (~200 €)• Suitable technology for the standard customer (flexi-fuel vehicle)• Poorer mileage than gasoline

• Biodiesel B30• Reluctance from car manufacturers to widespread use• Some manufactures admit it for captive fleets

(taxis, public fleets, etc)• More frequent vehicle maintenance requested

• HVO or BtL neat or in high concentrations• No concerns about tolerance by the vehicle• Probably limited deployment due to product cost


Niche markets: high concentration biofuels


Agenda

• Introduction

• Objectives


• Biofuels





Co-processing in hydrotreatment units

• Demo plant research:• Use of non edible or economical oils:

• Non-used vegetable oils (critical properties: acidity, metals and free fatty acids)

• Recycled frying oils or fats

• Process studies to modify industrial units in order to co-process oils

• Exploratory research: • More selective catalysts• Catalysts to minimize hydrogen consumption


Rationale:• Elimination of regulated pollutants• Diversification (security of energy supply)• GHG emissions (heavily dependant on electricity origin)

Approaches:• Hydrogen Fuel Cell

• Several technical barriers still to overcome• Electric vehicles

• One technical barrier: the battery Promising improvements in Li-ion batteries

• Interest from the electric sector (utility companies)• In principle, mutually exclusive alternatives

Massive deployment (if it comes) beyond 2020• Demonstration projects within the period 2009-2020


Electric propulsion

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