former chief technology officer, monsanto company world...

DR. ROBERT FRALEY

FORMER CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER, MONSANTO COMPANY

WORLD FOOD PRIZE LAUREATE

@RobbFraley

Our Planet Faces Some Real Challenges

Sources: UN FAO; Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428.

Population Growth

1960-2050

1990 2013

Changing Climate &

Declining Arable Land

Rise in Middle Class

2010 2020 20302050

1.8 3.24.9 5.6

6.9 7.8 8.5 9.7Mid Class Total Pop

Decreasing

Water Availability

355in

1965

507as ofToday

43% increase in calories

from animal protein

Changing Economies & Diets

World Population

(billions)

Our planet faces real challenges

• Population will grow to

~10 billion by 2050*

• Rise in middle class

• Changing economies & diets

• Declining arable land

• Decreasing water availability

• Changing climate

*Source: United Nations, 2017

Science and Technology have been Essential to Crop Improvement

Enabling Incredible Gains in Productivity

Historical U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

Source: USDA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

186

6

186

9

187

2

1875

187

8

188

1

188

4

188

7

189

0

189

3

189

6

189

9

190

2

190

5

190

8

191

1

191

4

191

7

192

0

1923

192

6

192

9

1932

193

5

193

8

194

1

194

4

194

7

195

0

195

3

195

6

195

9

196

2

196

5

196

8

197

1

197

4

197

7

1980

198

3

198

6

198

9

199

2

199

5

199

8

200

1

200

4

200

7

201

0

201

3

201

6

CORN SOYBEANS

180.7

bu/a

52.1

bu/a

Microbial Seed

Treatments

Increases yields, enhances nutrients,

and reduces disease pressure

Gene EditingImproves efficiency within a plant’s DNA

by enabling desired characteristics (i.e.,

drought tolerance, increasing production

of key nutrients, etc.)

Molecular BreedingCreates germplasm combinations that

are optimized for specific growing

conditions to help increase yields

while using fewer natural resources

Precision AgricultureData science, sensors, drones and AI

allow farmers to be more precise with

their input applications resulting in

significant conservation of resources,

especially water

Farm Equipment

ImprovementsAdvanced robotics and imaging tools

help make farming operations more

productive and sustainable by saving

energy and inputs

GMOsEnables farmers to adopt more

sustainable agronomic practices

(i.e., conservation tillage) that

improve soil quality and reduce runoff

New Advanced Technologies Enable Farmers To Be More Precise and Productive Than Ever Before

Impact of Biotech Crops, 1996-2016ISAAA 2016 Report: Global Status

of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops

INCREDIBLE ADVANCES IN BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES POWERED BY OUR KNOWLEDGE OF GENETICS

Gene Editing

Gene ModificationPlant Breeding

Soil Microbes

Plant Breeding

4.2 million acresin 1996

474 million acres in 2018

GLOBAL AREA OF BIOTECH CROPS

1996 TO 2018

Global Status ofBiotech Crops

ISAAA Brief 2018 – “Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops”

$186.1 BILLIONUS

ACRES OF BIOTECH CROPS

PLANTED IN 2017

469 MILLION

BY 17 MILLION FARMERSIN

USED FOR GM CROPS SINCE 1996

ACRES OF FARMLAND6.2 BILLION

>4,200APPROVED EVENTS FOR 26BIOTECH CROPS IN 70 COUNTRIES

1992-2018

FARM INCOME GAINSGENERATED GLOBALLY BYBIOTECH CROPS, 1996-2016

COUNTRIES26

GMO Crop Safety Record is Clear

Sources: GMOAnswers.com; http://nas-sites.org/ge-crops/

University of Illinois Scientists Have ‘Hacked Photosynthesis’ in Search of More Productive Crops

Future

2019

2018

2000

=10Bushel

Yield

Each Plot

1940

1980

Short-stature Corn

10

Gene Editing is Poised to Transform Global Agriculture

aa

B E N E F I T S

Greater

precision

Enables

improvements not possible before

Uses genetic

material from plant’s own family

Improved

eff iciency

Gene Editing Publication by Year (Web of Science Core Collection)

(as of Sept. 2018)

Regulatory environment

supportive of innovation

P O T E N T I A L A P P L I C A T I O N S

Weed Mgmt.

Disease Resistance

Drought Tolerance

Enhanced Nutrition Quality

Improvements

H O W I T W O R K S

Enable Beneficial

Characteristics

e.g. drought tolerance

Deactivate Unfavorable

Characteristics

e.g. disease sensitivity

Break Genetic Linksb/w Beneficial & Unfavorable Characteristics

277 427 532841

1331

1947

3130

3896

>10K

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MORE THAN 20,000

STUDIES SINCE 2010

11

Gene Editing vs Genetic Modification

Beginning

in the 1990s:

Gene Editing

Beginning

in the 1970s:

Genetic

Modification

Desired gene

Target Plant Genome

Only selected gene

transferred

Modified Plant GenomeSource Genome

+ =

Enable a beneficial

characteristic

Deactivate an

unfavorable

characteristic

Potential U.S. Crop Products Enabled by Gene Editing

*Readiness to launch estimations based on year of product submission to the USDA-APHIS Letter of Inquiry process, unless noted with confirmed launch timing as provided by the developer. Near-term products were submitted between 2010-2015. Longer-term projects were submitted in 2016 or later.

2018 Near Term* Longer Term*

Potential Launch

Readiness

Various ZFN edits in Maize

Exact Benefits Unknown

Dow AgroScience

Waxy Corn

Improved Starch Profile

Corteva

Launch Confirmed: 2020

Potato with

Improved Cold

Storage

Calyxt

Rice Resistant to

Bacterial Blight

Iowa State Univ.

Corn with Elevated

Leaf/Stalk Starch

Accumulation

Agrivida

Non-Browning

Mushroom

Penn State

Wheat with Powdery

Mildew Resistance

Calyxt

Non-Browning Potato

Calyxt

Non-Browning Potato

Simplot

Extra-Oil-Producing Camelina

Yield10 Bioscience

Low-Lignin Alfalfa

Digestibility of Animal Feed

Calyxt

Soy with Drought /

Salt Tolerance

USDA-ARS

Northern Leaf Blight-

Resistant Corn

Dow AgroScience

High-Fiber Wheat

Healthier Grain Profile

Calyxt

Launch Confirmed:

2020 / 2021

Agronomic

Benefits

Food Value

Chain Benefits

Shelf Life

Benefits

Nutritional

Benefits

Low-Gluten Wheat

Healthier Grain Profile

Calyxt & Institute for

Sustainable Ag

Cordoba Spain

High-Oleic

Soybeans

Healthier Oil Profile

Calyxt

Launch Confirmed:

Late 2018

HIGH-OLEIC SOYBEAN OIL CITRUS-GREENING DISEASE

REDUCED-GLUTEN WHEAT

Traits of Interest for Vertical Farming Production That Can Be Identified and Introduced

15

Rapid Biomass & Multi-Harvest Capable

Early & Uniform Fruiting

Dwarf Plants & Yield Efficiency

Photo-Induced Quality Traits

Auto-Harvest Architecture

Gene Editing for Healthier and More Productive Farm Animals

Trait Species Gene-editing Target

Increased muscle growth Cow, Pig, Sheep, Goat, Catfish Myostatin

Hornlessness Cow Pc Polled

Sterility Salmon, Pig Dead end protein, Nanos2

PRRSV Resistance Pig CD163

ASFV Resistance Pig RELA

Bovine tuberculosis Cow NRAMP1

Regulatory

SocietyValue Chain

Developers

Effective Social Engagement will be Important to the

Success of Gene Editing in Crops and Livestock

The Incredible Promise of Digital Ag

M A X I M I Z E Y I E L D

P O T E N T I A L

C O L L E C T A N D

A N A L Y Z E F I E L D D A T A

F A R M I N G A T T H E

F I E L D Z O N E L E V E L

Farmers Make 40+ Decisions Each Season

Managing Complex In-field Variability

*USDA crop production summary report

367 bu/acre opportunity

2017 NCGA1

Corn Yield

Contest winner

542 bu/acre

vs. 175 bu/acre

national average*

89 bu/acre opportunity

2017 Soy Yield

Contest winner

138 bu/acre

vs. 49 bu/acre

national average*

Processing Unprecedented Amounts of Data

22

The data spans many categories and forms, and requires sophisticated analytical tools to apply those insights to the challenges of modern agriculture.

Chromosomes

Genome Wide Associations

Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones

Soil ZonesSoil layers

Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more

Genetic markers


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more

Gene sequence

Location


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more

Geospatial

Soil


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more

IoT


Chromosomes

Strongyieldgenetics

Weakyieldgenetics

GeneticMarkers

GeneSequence

Location

Geospatial

Soil

IoT

GeneticsYield

Population

Treatments

Mgt zones


Elevation

Topography

Imagery

SensorsScouting

And more

• Genetics• Yield• Population• Treatments• Mgt. zones• Soil zones• Soil layers• Elevation• Topography• Imagery• Sensors• Scouting• And more

Maximize Yield Potential

Farmers can customize agronomic practices to manage field variability,

optimize their inputs and get the most out of every acre

Data comes from multiple sources – soil, field, and

atmosphere – to help farmers better understand

the variability in their fields

Collect and Analyze Field Data

Atmosphere Soil Field

Farming at the Field Zone Level

Farmers have access to tools like advanced seed scripting and zone-level

nitrogen monitoring

Data Science Tools Give Farmers a Deeper Understanding of their Fields

Nitrogen Management: Growing Smarter, Using Less Inputs

24

Nitrogen Management by ZoneNitrogen Management Tool in FieldView™

Machine Learning Improves Disease Diagnosis & Treatment

NCLBGray leaf

spots

Stewart’s wilt

Goss’s wilt

Heat stress

CRUCIAL TO ENSURE NEW TECHNOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE TO SMALLHOLDER FARMERS

1

1

• Over 500 million smallholder farmers grow more than 40% of the world’s agriculture, primarily in developing countries.

• New digital tools and advanced seed technologies are key to bridging the innovation gap.

• Approximately 70% of small holders have cell phones enabling access to weather, agronomic and market information.

• Numerous public-private partnerships (WEMA, African Orphan Crops Consortium, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, etc.) aimed at helping farmers increase production.

zBeyond Technology: How Do We Get There?

Farmer Support

Increased Investment in

Public and Private R&D

Regulatory Environment Supportive of Innovation

Consumer Acceptance

Addressing the Decline in Public Funding

HOW CAN UNIVERSITIES ADAPT TO CHANGES?

THE U.S. NEEDS TO INCREASE ITS INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC RESEARCH

STARTUPS ARE CHANGING THE LANDSCAPE

NEW ENTRANTS INCREASE TECHNOLOGIES

• 1900+ start-up companies were involved in the agricultural ecosystem as of 2019

• More than $17 billion in VC investment since 2010

• Since 2013, over 2,200 applications have been made for permits to develop traits by 130+ unique companies and research institutions

• Farm-to-fork investments in Digital ag, IT, seed tech, food tech continue to rise.

Lessons Learned: What We Did Wrong Can Do Better

Source: Dr. Jones, https://www.ratbotcomics.com/comics/pgrc_2014/1/1.html.

• Passive response to concerns

– letting the science speak for

itself allowed others to shape

our story

• Didn’t communicate directly

to consumers

• Led with facts and data

instead of telling stories

• Fragmented efforts across

industry – needed more allies

to amplify messages

2016 Consumer Survey:

• 32% believed vegetables do not contain genes

• 80% supported mandatory labeling for food containing DNA

Source: University of Florida Food & Resource Economics Department (McFadden, Lusk 2016)

We Can No Longer Assume that Science Will Prevail

Source: Pew Research Center, 2015

Source: National Geographic, 2015

Communicating the Story of Modern Ag:Focus on Social Media

Where Does America Get Their News?1

Nearly ½ of all Americans get

their news from Facebook

Expected to surpass TV as

America’s #1 Most-Watched

Platform3

1. Pew Research Center. 2. National Science Foundation, National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, Survey of Public Attitudes Toward and Understanding of Science and Technology (2001); University of Michigan, Survey of Consumer Attitudes (2004); University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center, General Social Survey (2006–14). See appendix tables 7-3–7-5. Science and Engineering Indicators 2016; 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer; Nielsen Electronic Mobile Measurement. 3. Wall Street Journal.

Telling a Complex Narrative in a Digestible Way

33

75+ PARTNER AND SUPPORTER ORGANIZATIONS

35

Communicating the Story of Modern Ag: Promote Environmental Benefits

Focus on ways agriculture is using

less water per unit of production =

more efficient practices in its

operations

“Which is more important to you

personally? That agriculture…”

23%

77%

Use Fewer Natural Resources

Produce More Food

If we look only at the people who are

less favorable toward modern

agriculture, they prefer an

environmental focus over

producing more food 3 to 1.

Focus on ways agriculture is

doing more on each acre

Focus on ways agriculture is

using less energy on farms in

agriculture operations

36

OUR GOAL: CREATE A FOOD-SECURE WORLD WHILE PROTECTING THE PLANET

Source: 2016 GAP Report ®

REDUCE FOOTPRINT OF FARMING

REDUCE INPUTS (E.G., WATER, FERTILIZER)

REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS

PROTECT & RESTORE BIODIVERSITY AND NATURAL RESOURCES

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Lan

d U

se (

Millio

ns

of

Ha

)

Po

pu

latio

n

(Billio

ns)

Fo

od

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Billio

n T

on

ne

s)

World Population

Total Food Production

(tonnes)

Global Land Use in

Agriculture (Ha)

Sources: National Geographic ,“Feeding the World”, 2014; Source: UN FAO, 2014, Monsanto internal

calculations; Ausubel, et al., Peak Farmland and the Prospect for Land Sparing Population and

Development Review Volume, , 38: 221–242

60-100%

Agriculture is a Part of the Climate Solution

38

Agriculture is currently on a trajectory to ½ its carbon

footprint, and with innovation could be a carbon sink with -4%in Total US agriculture emissions

Source: Internal Modeling Calculations.

Reducing the Footprint of Ag

2.3

2.1

2.8

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2016 Constant Yields

Current Forecasted Area

Based on Historical Trends

Current Pipeline

Technology Potential

La

nd

Avo

ida

nce

(70

0M

)

Global Crops Harvested Area 1980 – 2050

Po

ten

tial

Red

uctio

ns?

Sparing Acres Could Potentially Reduce Ag’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 5%

5% reduction

in agriculture’s

greenhouse

gas emissions

all global greenhouse

gas emissions from

commercial and

residential buildings

in 2010

Source: Internal Modeling Calculations.

Communication & Acceptance of Ag Technologies are Essential to Meet Future Demands

New Agricultural Innovations are Disrupting Everything

Support science-based policy, global

access to ag technologies

• Acceptance of new

technologies

key to meet future demands

Focus on Environment is Key to Public Acceptance

Without Better Communications, Nothing Else Will Matter

Our Legacy: Securing a Sustainable and Food-Secure World by 2050

THANK YOU

@RobbFraley



BIOTECHNOLOGY IMPACT

ON FOOD SECURITY


ISAAA Brief 53-2017 – “Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops”

$186.1 BILLIONUS


PLANTED IN 2017

469 MILLION




4,133APPROVED EVENTS FOR 26BIOTECH CROPS IN 67 COUNTRIES

1992-2017


COUNTRIES24

✓ Increased Productivity

✓ Increased Farmer Profitability

✓ Helped Alleviate Hunger

✓ Reduced Food Prices




ISAAA Brief 53-2017 – “Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops”

$186.1 BILLIONUS


PLANTED IN 2017

469 MILLION




4,133APPROVED EVENTS FOR 26BIOTECH CROPS IN 67 COUNTRIES

1992-2017


COUNTRIES24

✓ Conserved Land and Water

✓ Preserved Biodiversity

✓ Reduced Pesticide Applications

✓ Reduced CO2 Emissions

BIOTECHNOLOGY IMPACT

ON THE ENVIRONMENT

Historical U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields

/// Future of Farming Dialogue 201849

Biotechnology: Benefiting People and The Planet for More than 20 Years

Pesticide Use

Land Preserved

Tillage

CO2 Emissions

Efficient Water Use

Farmer Profitability

Production Costs

Yields Up

Cost of Food

Scientific authorities around the world confirm GMO safety

former chief technology officer, monsanto company world...

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