forecasting gas demand for heating in belgium · market analysis and forecasts strategy...

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Forecasting gas demand for heating in Belgium

Stephen Harkin, Delta-ee

November 2018

Interim results of Gas.be study, TAG 2018

Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

2Experts in New Energy Study for Gas.be 2018

Today I will discuss…

Scope of the study for Gas.be

Gas demand in Belgium today

Drivers for change

Outlook for gas demand – to 2030 and 2050

Next steps for the Gas.be study


Centralised

Commodity sales

Value is upstream

Distributed

Service-orientated

Customer centricMeter points

Value is downstream

‘Old’ energy ‘New’ energy

Advisory services to succeed in the transition from

‘old’ energy to ‘new’ energy.

Carbon intensive Low carbon

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Demand forecasts

Market analysis and forecasts

Strategy

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Heat Insight Service

Electrification of

Heat Service

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Service

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Service

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Service

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& Flexibility Research

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Service

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Study

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& Electricity

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Research Service

Delta-ee: What Delta-ee offers to clients





Drivers for change




Scope of project: Forecasting gas demand in Belgium to 2050

Residential heating Commercial heating Industrial process heat

BRUSSELS

FLANDERS

WALLONIA

ANNUAL

PEAK

Today 2030 2050

2015 study

DSO

connected





Drivers for change




-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

GW

h

Residential & non-residential gas demand in Belgium2017

Residential Non-Residential


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

GW

h

Total gas demand by region 2017

Brussels Wallonia Flanders

Jan - 2017 Dec - 2017Jun - 2017

Jan - 2017 Dec - 2017Jun - 2017

Source: Fluxys, 2018


FLANDERS

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Natural Gas Fuel Oil Coal

LPG Electricity Wood

0

0,5

1

1,5

Pre-1970 1970-1990 1991-2006 2006-2014

million

75%

25%

Multi family

homes: 0.7

million dwellings

Single family

homes: 2.2 million

dwellings

61%

Mainly single family homes

60% on gas

More modern dwellings

Dwellings by main fuel type

Dwellings by age

BRUSSELS

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%



0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

Pre-1970 1970-1990 1991-2006 2006-2014

million

33%

67%Multi family

homes: 0.3

million dwellings

Single family

homes: 0.2 million

dwellings

77%

Two thirds flats

Three quarters on gas

>70% very old


Dwellings by age

Regional variations will drive different outlooks for gas demand

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%



0

0,5

1

Pre-1970 1970-1990 1991-2006 2006-2014

million

81%

19%

Multi family

homes: 0.3

million dwellings

Single family

homes: 1.3 million

dwellings

39%


39%

Dwellings by age

Mainly single family homes

Lowest share on gas (39%)

>70% very old

WALLONIA





Drivers for change




Drivers of change…

Customer attitudes & awareness

Technology costs

Policy & regulations

Manufacturer push

Installer attitudes

Current heating market structure

Housing stock

…….

Technology performance

Energy prices


Drivers of change…

More efficient gas appliances

Condensing gas boilers

Gas driven heat pumps

Micro-CHP / fuel cell

‘Boiler plus’ options

Better controls

Electrification of heat

Heat pumps (air source & ground source)

Hybrid gas boiler with electric heat pump

Energy efficiency

Insulation

New build regulations


Step 3:

Techno – economic

modelling of different

heating appliances in

different housing

segments.

Step 2:

Housing stock

segmentation of the

Belgian dwelling stock.

Summary of high level approach for forecasting

the uptake of heating appliances in Belgium:

Step 1:Scenario development

& assumptions.

Step 4:

Calculate the market

uptake % of each

technology in each

housing segment.

Step 5:

Apply the final market

uptake % for each

appliance to the

addressable market in

each housing segment

% u

pta

ke

Economics Physical fit Soft factors

1

2

3

Annual replacements in one segment

Customer familiarity/trust

Government commitment

Market Push

Installer attitude

Customer awareness

Customer

appeal

Applying these drivers to our forecasting approach





Drivers for change




2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Incentive for

condensing

gas boilers.

Increasing

premiums for

HPs.

Phase out

non-

condensing

boilers

2021; Gas grid extensions no longer allowed.

Oil no longer

allowed in new build

Electricity prices rise

more strongly in light of

nuclear phase out

Increasing push for low

carbon gas appliances,

as part of ambition to

accelerate 'transition'

system uptake

HP & low carbon gas appliance costs come down, and installer &

customer acceptance grows. Gradual displacement of gas boilers.

Energy Pact: oil boiler

replacement ban.

Renovation

Pact coming

into force.

Energy Pact: all

new builds no

longer allowed to

connect to gas.

Share of gas appliances

decreases strongly in favour

of HPs, but they still make up

more than 50%

Gas demand impact

Oil / electric impact

Other

Insulation

improvements driving

down thermal demand

of housing stock

Outlook for Flanders

FLANDERS

HP tariff / carbon tax on gas introduced??


Appliance mix to 2030 in Flanders – provisional results

2018 forecast

Appliance

type

Volume in

2030

Share of

installed base

Gas 2,031,000 61%

Oil 815,000 24%

Electric 461,000 14%

Other 48,000 1%

-

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Insta

lled b

ase o

f heating a

pplia

nces

Evolution of the installed base of heating applainces in Flanders

Gas appliances Oil appliances Electric appliances Other

Share of gas appliances

remains similar to 2030


-

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

Insta

lled b

ase o

f heating a

pplia

nces

Evolution of the installed base of heating applainces in Flanders

Gas appliances Oil appliances Electric appliances Other

What happens to the appliance mix to 2050? - provisional results

Gas appliances

~1.75 M by 2050

Oil appliances

almost disappear

Electric appliances (mainly

ASHP) increase to ~1.4 M

Forecast extended in the 2018 study


What happens to gas appliances to 2030 - provisional results

2018 forecast

Appliance

type

Volume in

2030

Share of gas

appliances

Non-

condensing28,000 1%

Condensing 1,756,000 87%

Low carbon

gas248,000 12%

-

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Insta

lled b

ase o

f heating a

pplia

nces

Evolution of the installed base of GAS heating applainces in Flanders

Gas boilers - low efficiency Gas boilers - high efficiency Lower carbon gas appliances

Non-condensing almost

disappears by 2030

Small amount of low

carbon gas by 2030


-

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

Insta

lled b

ase o

f heating a

pplia

nces


Gas boilers - low efficiency Gas boilers - high efficiency Lower carbon gas appliances


Forecast extended in the 2018 study

~820,000 condensing

gas boilers by 2050

~945,000 low carbon

gas appliances by 2050



-

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

Insta

lled b

ase o

f heating a

pplia

nces


Gas boilers - low efficiency Gas boilers - high efficiency Gas boiler 'plus' Hybrid heat pump gas boiler Gas heat pump Micro-CHP & fuel cells

Condensing gas

boilers

Hybrid heat pumps

Gas heat pumps

Micro CHP / fuel cells


Annual gas demand to 2030 in Flanders - provisional results

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Annual gas d

em

and (

GW

h)

Annual gas demand in Flanders to 2030 by appliance type

Other

Micro-CHP & fuel cells

Gas heat pump

Hybrid heat pump gas boiler

Gas boiler 'plus'

Gas boiler high efficiency

Gas boiler low efficiency

Condensing gas

boilers

~19% reduction

by 2030


Annual gas demand to 2050 in Flanders - provisional results

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

Annual gas d

em

and (

GW

h)

Annual gas demand in Flanders to 2050 by appliance type

Other

Micro-CHP & fuel cells

Gas heat pump

Hybrid heat pump gas boiler

Gas boiler 'plus'

Gas boiler high efficiency

Gas boiler low efficiency

Condensing gas

boilers

Lower carbon gas

appliances

~30% reduction

by 2050


Next steps: Repeat forecasting for Brussels and Wallonia


Next steps: Commercial and industrial analysis

Retail

Education

Private offices

Public offices

Hospitals

Healthcare

Hospitality

Commercial heatingIndustrial process heat

Chemicals

Mineral products

Basic metals

Food and drink

Car manufacturing

Agriculture

Paper and pulp

Cement

Glass


Questions?

Contact:

[email protected]

forecasting gas demand for heating in belgium · market analysis and forecasts strategy...

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