forecasting extreme cold snaps in the midwest/northeast u.s
DESCRIPTION
Special thanks to SPHEAR’s 2009-2010 Industry Partners Citadel Investment Group Susquehanna International Group Chesapeake Energy. Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S. Dr. Alexander Gershunov Dr. Kristen Guirguis Stephen Bennett, JD. Research Question. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S.
Dr. Alexander GershunovDr. Kristen GuirguisStephen Bennett, JD
Special thanks to SPHEAR’s 2009-2010 Industry Partners
Citadel Investment GroupSusquehanna International
GroupChesapeake Energy
Research QuestionCan we develop new methods for predicting
the severe shocks in natural gas consumption and natural gas price
associated with severe cold outbreaks in winter?
2009/2010 – How cold was it?
Nov - Mar Dec - Feb
Define EventsScripps Severe Cold Index – Reanalysis
Calculation
Scripps Severe Cold Index
• Uses data : 1948-2010
• Local threshold calculated for each location (5th percentile)
• For each day and station, the number of degrees below the threshold is recorded
• The SSCI is the average of all local threshold exceedances
℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego
Europe/Mediterranean: 20th Northern Europe: 51st
Central Asia: 52nd
Russia: 55th
Far East: Warmest
Canada: 2nd
Alaska/Yukon: 3rd
Eastern U.S.: 9th
℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego
℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego
Scripps Severe Cold Index: Midwest/Northeast U.S.
Station Calculation
Primary Findings
Several synoptic signatures indicate a statistically significant signal with a lead time of 20-30 days when linked to the incidence of severe cold outbreaks.
℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego
Operational Case StudyNovember 22, 2009
Based on SPHEAR analysis – it appears that the risk for a severe cold outbreak is less than 5% between today and December 1, 2009.
However, models indicate that several significant variables appear to be developing after December 1st
that tend to precede severe cold outbreaks by about 5 days.
Additionally, some currently observed variables appear to have a significant link to outbreaks at a 10-20 day lead.
The probability for a severe cold outbreak between December 1st and December 25th is estimated to be greater than 50%.
℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego
Scripps Severe Cold IndexWinter 2009/2010
℗ Process Patent PendingUniversity of California San Diego
Scripps Partnership for Hazards and
Environmental Applied Research
Executive DirectorStephen Bennett