forecast pro event models

8/13/2019 Forecast Pro Event Models

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How to Improve Your Forecasts by

Modeling the Impact of Promotions

Business Interruptions and Events

Presented byEric StellwagenVice President & CofounderBusiness Forecast Systems, [email protected]

Business Forecast Systems,68 Leonard StreetBelmont, MA 02478 USA(617) 484-5050www.forecastpro.com


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2013, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com

Eric Stellwagen

Vice President, & Cofounder ofBusiness Forecast Systems, Inc.

Coauthor of Forecast Pro product line.

Over 28 years in forecasting.Currently serving on the board of directors of the InternationalInstitute of Forecasters and on the practitioner advisory board ofForesight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.


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What Well Cover

IntroductionsEvolution of Forecasting Process

What are Events?

Forecasting Event-Driven Data

Examples

Summary

Q&A


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Evolution of Forecasting Proces

Customized

Approaches

Automatic Time

Series Approaches

Judgment &

Spreadsheets

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3


5/18 2013, Business Forecast Systems, Inc. www.forecastpro.com

Customized Forecasting Metho

Customized approaches can take many fo

including:

Event-index models

Hierarchical approaches (e.g., top-down or other allocation schDynamic regression

New product models

etc.



Common Events

Product promotionsMoveable holidays (e.g., Easter, Rosh Hashan

Ramadan)

Catastrophes (e.g., earthquakes, hurricanes, 9Labor strikes

Acquisitions

New legislation or regulations



Forecasting Event-Driven Da

Judgmentally adjust history to remove impa

Separate base demand from event-driven

demand.

Use a time series extension model (e.g.,

event-index model, ARIMA intervention mode

etc.).

Use a multivariate model (e.g., regression)



What is an Event-Index Mod

An extension of exponential smoothing.

An index-based approach.

The model introduces an additional smooth

weight and updating equation.

The model requires an event schedule.



Event Schedule



Building an Event-Index Mod

You need to decide how many event types

needed.

Each event type needs to have occurred

historically.

The schedule needs to include both the his

and forecast periods.


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Examples


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Weekly Data

Weekly data presents many challenges

52 or 53 weeks per year

More moveable holidays

Lack of continuity between periods from year to

year

Event-index models can be very useful whe

forecasting weekly data


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Conclusions

Time series methods do not perform well in thepresence of events.

An event-index model is an effective technique for

forecasting event-driven data.

The strengths of event-index models are accuracyease of application and adaptivity to changing

dynamics.

Event-index models are particularly useful when

forecasting weekly data.


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Forecast Pro

Examples from todays Webinar used Forecast Pro.To learn more about Forecast Pro:

Request a live WebEx demo for your team (submit

your request as a question right now)

Visit www.forecastpro.com

Call us at 617-484-5050


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Forecast Training and Workshops

S

BFS offers forecasting webinars and product training

workshops.

On-site, and remote-based (via WebEx) classes are

available.

Learn more at www.forecastpro.com


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Our Next Webinar

Identifying Problems in Your Data and Forecasts,October 24, 2013 1:30 p.m. EDT

James Berry, Senior Consultant, Business Forecast Systems

Learn how to improve your forecasting using outlier

detection, exception reporting and ABC categorization (Paretanalysis).

Visit www.forecastpro.comto sign up!


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Questions?


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Thank you for attending

forecast pro event models

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