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Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use in EU 27

Meeting EUROSTAT - 7 and 8 October 2010


Methodologies for a crop based approach

The EFMA

Forecast training


The Fertilizers Europe forecast

The crop-based approach.

The « fertilizer consumption parameters »:Basic parameters :

• Crop areas.• Nutrients application rates.• Crop yield (or production).

>> Help to later assess the evolution of the application rates.When relevant : % of crop area fertilized.

>> To extrapolate actual fertilizer consumption from total area, whenonly effective application rates are known.

When collecting crop data:• Focus on main « fertilizer consuming crops », make assessment

when necessary.• Better to assess part of the market with reliable data, then to

extrapolate to 100% of the known fertilizer consumption



The crop based approach (continued).

Main methodologies to achieve crop-based approach :

Agro-economic models adapted when :• Crop data is easily available to « feed » the model.• No major policy change (break in trend) is foreseen.

Expert based approach better adapted when :• Data availability is partial or critical.• Major policy changes are expected during the period.

>> This is often the situation in EU



Particular requirements crop based / expert based

The forecast is made by « projection » and not byextrapolating time series (as in models), therefore :

A sound and solid basis is key :• Data for base year should be as solid (and reliable) as

possible.• Cross the estimated values for current year with known

market fertilizer consumption (sales).

A clear description of the future market conditions is alsoessential :

>> Defining a « scenario for the future » greatly facilitates the « projection » of the crop parameters, and help to justifythe foreseen evolution.


The objectives, principles and main steps

of Fertilizers Europe methodology



Objectives, principles and main steps of ourmethodology

Objectives & principles

Long term consumption forecast :

Parallel and convergent with sales forecast:« Full convergence » by campaign n-2/n-3.

An expert based approach

A « bottom-up » procedure, step by step :Per country.Crop acreage forecast, considering :

• Global and European Agro-economic trends.• Agricultural policies.

Application rate forecast, considering : • Evolution of technologies and agricultural practices.• Environmental policies.

Short term to long term forecast :5 Campaigns : n-2/n-1, n-1/n, n/n+1, n+4/n+5, n+9/n+10

Based on « scenarios for the future » :General agro-economic trends, global and European.National projections.


Time schedule

Various stages of the process : an expert approach

1/ Building a scenario : MarchThe « European context », prepared by the leader of the WG :

• Agro-economic series & trends, world & Europe.• Agricultural & Environmental policies.

2/ Our scenario for a European agriculture. AprilThe impact on fertilizer use, as foreseen by the forecast WG.

3/ Adapting our scenario to national level. MayThe impact of national situation and policies >> the « country report ».

4/ Making the national forecast. May- June

5/ Finalizing the European approach. JuneCritical approach of the forecast WG on each national scenario.

6/ Finalizing the EU forecast : integration of all nationals. July

7/ Publishing and circulating the forecast. September


Assumptions and scenario

Building the EU scenario

Background information :Quantitative

• Global : FAPRI, USDA & FAO-OECD• EU : EU Commission (DG Agri,EEA)

Qualitative• Contact with EU experts (Agri & Env)

Building the scenario :Selecting relevant information for our forecastersProposing a draft scenarioDiscussing the scenario in plenum


Background information for the EU scenario

Commodity market development in EuropeFertilizers Europe Forecast 2009/2019


Commodity market development in EuropeFertilizers Europe Forecast 2009/2019

Background information for the EU scenario

EC Prospects for Agric Markets & Income in the EU, 2008-2015


The National approach

Developing the Expertise

Example: Sources of information for Application rate

Crop needs (- nutrients from other sources).Advisory service, consultants.Publications (scientific, “Farmers weekly”).Your control calculation.Watch “other nutrient sources” (National budget !) :

farmyard manure, slurrysewage sludgeothers


http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/2007/default.asp

http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/environment/land-manage/nutrient/pdf/bsfp2007.pdf

Statistical yearbook.Newspapers, journals, etc…News agencies e.g. Agra Europe.Press releases :

- Ministry of Agriculture.- Growers associations.- Newspaper / journal for merchants.- International produce traders.- Plant breeders / -associations.


Sources of information for Crop area planted :


http://www.defra.gov.uk/farm/environment/land-manage/nutrient/pdf/bsfp2007.pdf

http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/2007/default.asp


Implementation of EU-rules and –programmes.National programmes.National / regional limitations.points of discussion (conferences, media).Intensity of discussions (conferences, media).Direct contacts (ministry, NGOs, administration).


Sources of information for Environmental policy :



« Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer use in EU »

Three main outputs :

The Fertilizers Europe forecast data book (internal use).

The Fertilizers Europe forecast leaflet (public circulation).

The Fertilizers Europe forecast presentation.

( A new leaflet in project )



Outcome example – Forecast 2009/2019

Forecast changes in farming food crops in EU27

barley

grain maize

rye, oats, rice

potato

wheat

sugarbeet

oilseedrape

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Area (ha)

Yield (q/ha)

Forecast changes : 2018/19 - Ref. **


0.000

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

1927

1932

1937

1942

1947

1952

1957

1962

1967

1972

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

N P2O5 K2O

Fertilizer nutrient consumption in the European Union 27

Nutrient (million tonnes)

+ 3.0

- 4.4

- 9.7

Reference Reference

2009 2007

+ 4.1

+ 7.7

+ 3.9

Forecast 2009/2019 – evolution with 2009 and 2007 reference


Forecast changes in fertilizer use EU15, 2009/2019

Austria

Germany Finland

U K

GreeceItaly

Netherlands

EU 15

EU 12

EU 27

Denmark

France

Spain

Portugal

Sweden

Belgium+ Lux

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium

Forecast changes % in regional fertilizer use

Ireland



Fertilizers Europe Forecast of Food, Farming and Fertilizer Use,

a reference in EU



Fertilizers Europe Forecast, a reference in EU.

Organizations:IFA and FAOEU Commission: DG AGRI, DG ENV, DG TRENEUROSTATEEAIIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)COPA COGECAEISA (European Initiative for Sustainable development in Agriculture)

Studies, preparation of legislationsCAPRI modelNEC directiveWells to Wheels >> 2008 Directive on Renewable EnergyGothenburg Protocol (UN ECE)Revision ECCP 1


Thank you for your attention!

Ermis [email protected]

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