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European Fertilizer Manufacturers AssociationEuropean Fertilizer Manufacturers Association
Forecast of Food Farming and Fertilizer use
in the European Union - 2004 to 2014
Forecast of Food Farming and Fertilizer use
in the European Union - 2004 to 2014
Major EventsMajor Events
CAP reform CAP reform (Luxembourg agreement)(Luxembourg agreement)
Single Farm Payment : decouplingSingle Farm Payment : decoupling
Environmental Cross ComplianceEnvironmental Cross Compliance
EU EnlargementEU Enlargement
May 1May 1stst 2004 2004
Forecast for 8 New Member StatesForecast for 8 New Member States
The CAP reform in the EUThe CAP reform in the EU
The Single Farm Payment The Single Farm Payment Aid decoupled from productionAid decoupled from production Increase of set aside (impact on the cereal Increase of set aside (impact on the cereal
area)area)» 10% of the total drop in N10% of the total drop in N» 35% of the "extra drop" 35% of the "extra drop"
Incitement to "extensification" Incitement to "extensification" » Arable sectorArable sector» Beef sector (grassland)Beef sector (grassland)
The Cross compliance principle The Cross compliance principle Payment of aid conditioned to environmental Payment of aid conditioned to environmental
constraintsconstraints Impact :Impact :
» Decrease of the rate of applicationDecrease of the rate of application
E U 15 E U 15
Potato Potato
Sugar beet Sugar beet
Oilseeds + Pulses Oilseeds + Pulses
Fodder crops Fodder crops
Other crops Other crops
Permanent Crops
Permanent Crops
Uncropped area Uncropped area
Coarse grains Coarse grains
Grassland Grassland
Wheat Wheat
12 %12 %13 %13 %
37 %37 % 16 %16 %
Agricultural area EU152001/02 to 2003/04
2001 to 2004 : 150.2 Mio ha2001 to 2004 : 150.2 Mio ha
Non fertilized : 49.5 Mio haNon fertilized : 49.5 Mio ha
Fertilizer use for crops in the EU15
2001/02 to 2004 fertilizer use (Mio t) : 9.0 N 2.9 P2O5
3.3 K2O
2001/02 to 2004 fertilizer use (Mio t) : 9.0 N 2.9 P2O5
3.3 K2O
potatopotatootherother
wheatwheat
sugarsugarbeetbeet
fodderfoddercropscrops
oilseeds & oilseeds & pulsespulses
grasslandgrassland
23 %22 %
22 %coarse grains
coarse grains
Forecast changes in farming cropsForecast changes in farming crops
oilseed rape
potato
grain maize
rye, oats, rice
barley
wheat
sugar beet
-25 %-25 % -15-15 -5-5 55 1515 2525 35 %35 %
Area (ha) Yield (q/ha) Production (kt)
20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)
Forecast changes in EU15 fertilizer use by crop
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
grassland
potato
fodder crops
oilseeds & pulses
sugar beet
coarse grains
wheat Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Potassium
20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)
Forecast changes in regional Fertilizer use
Forecast changes in regional Fertilizer use
20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)20013/14 versus current situation (2001/02 to 04)
Germany
Netherlands
United
Kingdom Austria
France
Spain
-40-40
-30-30
-20-20
-10-10
00
Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium
EuropeanUnion
Sweden
Denmark
%%
1212
00
22
44
66
88
1010
Nutrient (million tonnes)Nutrient (million tonnes)
- 7 %- 7 %- 7 %- 7 %
- 11 %- 11 %- 10 %- 10 %
NitrogenNitrogen
PhosphorusPhosphorus
PotassiumPotassium
Overall N+P+K decrease : 1.28 mio tOverall N+P+K decrease : 1.28 mio t
EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumptionEU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption
19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20152015
New Member States New Member States
New Member States (forecast period )
Eight countries represent 99.7 % consumption Cyprus and Malta represent less than 0.1 % arable land
Evaluation of acreage variation by crop FAO & Commission sources
Evaluation of application rate by crop FAO – IFA source & Forecasters Expertise
Eight countries represent 99.7 % consumption Cyprus and Malta represent less than 0.1 % arable land
Evaluation of acreage variation by crop FAO & Commission sources
Evaluation of application rate by crop FAO – IFA source & Forecasters Expertise
Potato Potato
Sugar beet Sugar beet
Oilseeds + Pulses Oilseeds + Pulses
+ Fodder crops + Fodder crops Other crops Other crops
Agricultural areain the New Member States
Current situation : 40 Mio haCurrent situation : 40 Mio ha
Coarse grains Coarse grains
Wheat Wheat Grassland Grassland
Fertilizer use for food crops farmed in the New Member States
current fertilizer use (Mio t) : 1.7 N 0.5 P2O5
0.6 K2O
current fertilizer use (Mio t) : 1.7 N 0.5 P2O5
0.6 K2O
potatopotato
wheatwheat
sugarsugarbeetbeetoilseeds & oilseeds &
pulsespulses
GrasslandGrassland32 %15 %
24 %coarse grains
coarse grains
Fodder crops + others
Fodder crops + others
11 %11 %??
Fertilizers consumption increase& grain production development Fertilizers consumption increase& grain production development
0%0%
10%10%
20%20%
30%30%
40%40%
50%50%
Poland Poland HungaryHungary Czech Rep.Czech Rep. SlovakiaSlovakia EstoniaEstonia LithuaniaLithuania LatviaLatvia SloveniaSlovenia
NN P2O5P2O5 K2OK2OAll grainsAll grains
20013/14 versus current situation20013/14 versus current situation
0000
0.50.50.50.5
1.01.01.01.0
1.51.51.51.5
2.02.02.02.0
2.52.52.52.5
3.03.03.03.0
3.53.53.53.5
NitrogenNitrogen
PP22OO55
KK22OO
2.012.01
0.670.670.560.560.560.56
Fertilizer use in the New Member States
Overall N+P+K increase : 0.5 mio tOverall N+P+K increase : 0.5 mio t
19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010
Nutrient (million tonnes)Nutrient (million tonnes)
1212
00
22
44
66
88
1010
Nutrient (million tonnes)Nutrient (million tonnes)
NitrogenNitrogen
EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumptionEU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption
19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20152015
- 7 %- 7 %- 7 %- 7 %
1212
00
22
44
66
88
1010
Nutrient (million tonnes)Nutrient (million tonnes)
NitrogenNitrogen
EU25 fertilizer nutrient consumptionEU25 fertilizer nutrient consumption
19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20152015
- 3 %- 3 %- 3 %- 3 %
1212
00
22
44
66
88
1010
Nutrient (million tonnes)Nutrient (million tonnes)
- 11 %- 11 %- 10 %- 10 %
PhosphorusPhosphorus
PotassiumPotassium
EU15 fertilizer nutrient consumptionEU15 fertilizer nutrient consumption
19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20152015
1212
00
22
44
66
88
1010
Nutrient (million tonnes)Nutrient (million tonnes)
- 7 %- 7 %- 6 %- 6 %
PhosphorusPhosphorus
PotassiumPotassium
EU25 fertilizer nutrient consumptionEU25 fertilizer nutrient consumption
19301930 19401940 19501950 19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010 20152015
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